2013 lineup/1B

[torts]

I dont think there is anywhere else on the entire internet where Reed Johnson is talked more about than this forum

[TURBO]

I don't understand the fascination with Reed Johnson.

 

He is a nobody.

[TooLiveBrew]

Johnson v. LHP:

 

2012: .311/.354/.444/.798

2011: .305/.330/.467/.797

Career: .311/.367/.461/.828

 

That's the interest. A 4th/5th OF that specializes against LHP (since Schafer will likely be the v. RHP backup) & can play all three spots, for scenarios where Gomez and/or Hart aren't with the team in 2013 & the OF is more left-handed.

[Outlander]

I think Scott Hairston would be a similar player and could play second base. At least it is a different name.

[SenatorShriv]

Call me crazy, but I hope that a solid all around year from Weeks could make up for some regression in others.

[JohnBriggs12]

Mentioning Reed Johnson or Hairston is getting way ahead of ourselves. Hamilton is a longshot. Hart isn't going to be traded. Aoki does well enough against LHP that with the lineup of RH thunder the Brewers put out there, he's fine. He might not hit great, but he still works counts, fouls off pitches and plays good defense. The bench will include Schafer, Bianchi, and either Gamel or Ishikawa. That leaves one non catcher backup job who ideally would be a RH hitter. I wouldn't be shocked if they brought back Cody Ransom. Melvin keeps saying he likes power and doesn't care about strikeouts, and Ransom hit some big HR.

[thebruce44]

If they make ANY changes to the lineup they should ALL be fired. This is a potent bunch, and as has been said, they do everything well. I also can't see where any one of them had a fluke "played out of his mind" year.

 

I would think that next year will be even better as we would start the year with the lineup we ended this year with. I'm pretty sure that Aoki will be more comfortable and possibly play even better than he did this year. I think Gomez might also have a better year as he finally seems to be "getting it" to a degree, and RR seems ready to let Carlos be Carlos (as has also been said already). I'm also really impressed with Segura thus far and feel he'll get better with maturation as well. Offensively, the sky's the limit.

I was thinking about the bolded part yesterday, & came to the same basic conclusion. The only guy I can think of is Lucroy, in that we probably shouldn't expect him to post AVGs around .320. I think his cumulative MiLB slash line is a pretty decent guess, however: .299/.379/.459/.838. I'd probably adjust a generic projection to more like .299/.360/.475/.835, since his BB rate in the bigs is (understandably) lower than it was in the minors, but "mid-800s OPS" would probably suffice. And that's certainly nothing to complain about.

 

Maldonado might be a regression candidate, but not because of his MiLB numbers, just because he hit pretty well for a rookie catcher & had a Ransom-esque BB/K rate.

 

I would expect regression at C, 3B, and CF.

[jerichoholicninja]

I would expect regression at C, 3B, and CF.

 

Why 3b? Ramirez put up basically the same numbers he has for the last 8 years.

[MNBrew]

Ramirez has been pretty darn consistent over his career & his numbers this year, while a bit better, still are hardly ridiculously off career norms.

[RobDeer 45]

A Ram will start to decline anytime now because of age right? He shouldn't fall off a cliff, but at some point in the next few years, age will start to cause him to slow. Let's just hope that injuries don't increase that! (I just knocked on wood)

[thebruce44]

I would expect regression at C, 3B, and CF.

 

Why 3b? Ramirez put up basically the same numbers he has for the last 8 years.

 

Defense, games played, and age are the big reasons I say that. I don't like defensive metrics, but in this instance UZR seems to support the eye test on ARAM (I live in Chicago so I've actually seen him play quite a bit over the last few years). I'll use Fangraphs WAR to make my point since its a counting stat and takes defense into account:

 

2008: 4.7

2009: 2.2

2010: 0.5

2011: 3.7

2012: 6.5

 

So I think it makes sense to expect a minor offensive drop off and a sizable defensive one as well. Of course he was coming off a shoulder injury that hurt his defense the last few years so hopefully he keeps it up.

[joepepsi]

I doubt there's a major role reserved for Gamel, given his age and recent injury history. they'd like his bat on the 25 man I'm sure, but he's going to have to earn a spot now.

[dlk9s]

Aoki goes to 4th OF/split CF with Gomez.

I know this issue has been settled already, but I just read the thread and had to respond:

 

http://i.imgur.com/nYlBg.gif

[HiAndTight]

Ishikawa is redundant. Gamel is the LH 1B off the bench.

 

 

Agreed. Gamel has earned the job of LH'ed backup to Hart at the very least, and Hart hasn't been bullet proof the last couple of years with knee surgeries to start each season and lesser nagging injuries, including a foot injury, the type that can linger for certain individuals.

 

I also agree with everyone else's take on Gamel. Still love his potential, but Aoki and Hart really spurred this team when they went on their run. Aoki gives us a fantastic leadoff hitter who does all the little things that have been missing from our lineup for a while IMO and I think he'll only get better in his second go around.

 

I'm a huge Gamel fan, but you can't mess with what's working and working as well as it did after his injury. Sports aren't fair. If they where, he'd have played all year and finally broken out when given the chance.

[HiAndTight]

I would expect regression at C, 3B, and CF.

 

Why 3b? Ramirez put up basically the same numbers he has for the last 8 years.

 

 

 

I don't think anyone expected his defensive ability that he gave us this year.

 

He was a legit GG contender. The way he comes in on a ball is impressive and he gets to everything hit near him. He's no Beltre, but he was maybe the best 3rd basemen I've seen on the Brewers since I've been watching.

 

Now maybe it's just the result of us not seeing him everyday and the flaws in defensive metrics. I don't know. But as he hits his mid 30's, he would seem to be a prime candidate to regress.

 

Catcher is a position that may see regression from both players.

And who knows what will happen in CF.

 

But you could also say that you could see improvements at 2nd base, and SS that would off-set those.

 

I still fear a regression from Hart, but that hasn't happened as yet, so we'll see.

[Roderick]

My thoughts - based on what Olney reported about the Brewers being a front-runner for Josh Hamilton:

 

cf: Aoki

2b: Weeks

lf: Braun

rf: Hamilton

3b: A-Ram

1b: Hart

c: Lucroy/Maldonado

ss: Segura

 

bench: Maldonado/Lucroy, Bianchi, Green, Reed Johnson, Schafer

 

Traded: Gomez, Gamel

 

Am I the only one that hates the idea of Aoki playing CF? We better get Segura and Weeks on a running program if that is the case, as they will be expected to pick up all the short fly balls as Aoki plays on the warning track (half blue).

[TURBO]

I am an ARAMIS BELIEVER!

 

I saw nothing to make me think he is ready to regress...

 

The sky is not falling at 3B for once, and there still seem to be people out there that don't like the pick-up and trying to make themselves believe that he is going to suck during his time as a Brewer.

 

Just enjoy people, just enjoy...

[TooLiveBrew]

The sky is not falling at 3B for once, and there still seem to be people out there that don't like the pick-up and trying to make themselves believe that he is going to suck during his time as a Brewer.

 

Can you point to where anyone has said this?

[thebruce44]

I am an ARAMIS BELIEVER!

 

I saw nothing to make me think he is ready to regress...

 

The sky is not falling at 3B for once, and there still seem to be people out there that don't like the pick-up and trying to make themselves believe that he is going to suck during his time as a Brewer.

 

Just enjoy people, just enjoy...

 

Seriously? Me and a few others said we expect some regression from this year. Its pretty condescending to make us out to be bias just because we don't share your overly optimistic view. We are simply looking at his age and previous numbers instead of blind faith, but apparently we are the ones off base. Sheesh.

[TURBO]

Wow, you guys are touchy...

 

Are you telling me there have not been countless posts on this site stating that Ramirez and his numbers will soon fall?

 

Are you saying there have not been countless posts on this site saying that his contract was a mistake?

 

I shared my opinion, just like you... If you are looking for an internet fight, it won't happen here.

 

I'm glad we signed him, glad we didn't trade him, and am looking forward to the next 2 years of his time in Milwaukee.

[thebruce44]

Wow, you guys are touchy...

 

Are you telling me there have not been countless posts on this site stating that Ramirez and his numbers will soon fall?

 

Are you saying there have not been countless posts on this site saying that his contract was a mistake?

 

I shared my opinion, just like you... If you are looking for an internet fight, it won't happen here.

 

I'm glad we signed him, glad we didn't trade him, and am looking forward to the next 2 years of his time in Milwaukee.

 

Now we are touchy. Way to stay above an internet fight, I wish I was as awesome as you.

 

Saying his contract was a mistake is not the same as saying "he is going to suck." You are basically creating an opposition to argue with and baiting people with insults while saying you are above it all.

 

Do you have any compelling reasons to believe that a 34 year old's defense and offense will stay at a higher level than they have in the past 4 years other than blind faith? If you want to tell everyone they are wrong at least back it up somehow.

[wisniewski]

Olney reported the Brewers are front runners for Hamilton? Awful. I don't buy that for one second, and don't think it makes much sense on any level.

[TURBO]

thebruce,

 

Baiting, Condescending?

 

You take this way to seriously. I'm going to bow out now because I am awesome.

[danzig6767]

Wow, you guys are touchy...

 

Are you telling me there have not been countless posts on this site stating that Ramirez and his numbers will soon fall?

 

Are you saying there have not been countless posts on this site saying that his contract was a mistake?

 

I shared my opinion, just like you... If you are looking for an internet fight, it won't happen here.

 

I'm glad we signed him, glad we didn't trade him, and am looking forward to the next 2 years of his time in Milwaukee.

 

Now we are touchy. Way to stay above an internet fight, I wish I was as awesome as you.

 

Saying his contract was a mistake is not the same as saying "he is going to suck." You are basically creating an opposition to argue with and baiting people with insults while saying you are above it all.

 

Do you have any compelling reasons to believe that a 34 year old's defense and offense will stay at a higher level than they have in the past 4 years other than blind faith? If you want to tell everyone they are wrong at least back it up somehow.

 

I know your post wasn't directed at me, but you say turbo only has blind faith on his side, yet what do you have to base your belief of regression on besides basically just guessing that will happen? The OPS for Ramirez over the last four years.

 

2009-- .905

2010-- .745

2011-- .871

2012-- .901

 

If you go beyond further than the last four years, it's pretty amazing just how consistently close his stats have ended up being from year to year since 2004 when the Cubs traded for Aramis. What he did last year with the Brewers was far from being any sort of aberration, it was near exactly the kind of season he's had since 2004.

 

Sure there is a chance that age finally starts to catch up to him either next season or in year three of his deal, age at some point catches up to all athletes. That said, if say someone told me i'd win a 1000 dollars, but i had to correctly pick the over/under on whether Ramirez will finish with an OPS of .850 or higher next year, i'd take the over given he didn't show a single bit of his skills declining last year.

[pitchleague]

Olney reported the Brewers are front runners for Hamilton? Awful. I don't buy that for one second, and don't think it makes much sense on any level.

 

 

I read that article. Olney did not say that the Brewers ARE front runners for Hamilton. It said that the Brewers COULD be in the running for Hamilton. Mostly, based on Johnny Narron being on the Brewers.