Ben Sheets to Retire.

[JackNicholson1974]

My favorite Brewer pitcher.

[hawing]

It's a shame he never got to throw a postseason pitch.

[JimH5]

I like Jim Slaton a lot, but the whole league was putting up high CG numbers during his era. Only once did he finish in the top 10 in IP.

 

And that was really all that he was, a workhorse pitcher. He never struck out 5 guys per 9 IP and never finished in the top 10 in ERA.

 

And Caldwell, too, really only had two good years, the rest of the time, he just wasn't that good. My memories of him far exceed his stat line.

 

I'm not a Sheets guy. I thought the sum of his game was less than what the gawdy SO/BB ratio would have you believe. But I think he was much better than Slaton & Caldwell.

[fondybrewfan]

That 2004 K: ratio was ridiculous. I can say with good certainty that Sheets was the primary reason I became an avid fan. I was a casual fan at best up until 2004; even though we were terrible that year he was the first Brewer player I ever made me go out of my way to watch them. When he pitched you wanted to watch because he always had the potential for no hitter type stuff.

[sveumrules]

Oh really? You like that? You think that's funny?

 

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=5190945166059857006

[BCZF]

Oh really? You like that? You think that's funny?

 

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=5190945166059857006

 

 

OMG.. 3TO in his prime OOOOOOverbay, etc.. The team has come a long way..

 

Thanks Ben, you will be missed..

 

He was funny.. Game needs more self deprecating players..

[Marc Newfield of Dreams]

When Atlanta was here last, did Ben get any sort of recognition/ovation?

 

If not, I'd love for the Brewers to honor him at a game next season.

[RightFieldCoder]

No. Well, kind of yes. He was on the DL when the Braves visited. It was just like old times.

 

He was throwing a bit in the RF corner before the game. Melvin came down to the field and the they talked like two old friends catching up.

[rluzinski]

Nice article on Sheets:

 

http://tomahawktake.com/2012/10/03/ben-sheets-goes-out-on-top/

 

Oh really? You like that? You think that's funny?

 

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=5190945166059857006

 

Hah, I posted that on google video (the future!). Don't remember if I just recorded it off my TV or what.

[TooLiveBrew]

-When you say 'double digits', are you talking hit total, or batting average?

 

-I'm talkin' battin' average, there's no doubt about.

 

-You were .022 last year!

 

-Hey, let's be honest, dude -- I've been working with Derrick Turnbow on my swing. It's looking better this year, you know?

[sveumrules]

Well in that case, one million thanks to you rluz. That video never fails to crack me up in so many regards.

[The stache]

That 2004 season was ridiculous. 10K/9IP and 8.25 K/BB were a joke.

The joke was finishing only 8th in Cy Young that year.

 

Bingo!

 

Here's a post I made on another forum when a poster said he wasn't anywhere near a star when he played:

 

He absolutely was a star. Are you really looking at his win loss record as proof he wasn't?

 

Here's another pitcher with similar numbers:

 

98-76, 3.22 ERA, 1,487 K in 1,620 IP. 3.10 SO/BB 8.3 K/9 IP. Other pitcher

94-96, 3.78 ERA, 1,325 K in 1,596 IP. 3.59 SO/BB. 7.5 K/9 IP. Sheets

 

The "other pitcher" is Felix Hernandez, a Cy Young winner, and a Cy Young runner up.

 

As I said before, once Sheets put it all together, yes, he was a star. He pitched for a poor Milwaukee Brewers team. That's why he wasn't a household name. But he was clearly a #1 starter.

 

If you want to look at his numbers from 2004 to 2008, when he was forced out of baseball due to injury, he was outstanding. Those numbers:

 

53-44, 3.24 ERA. 785 K in 839 IP. 8.4 K/9 IP. 5.16 K/BB.

 

Look at his 2004 season. He finished 8th in the Cy Young vote, but he was clearly better than all the pitchers who finished above him save for Roger Clemens and Randy Johnson. And the argument can be made that he was just as good as Clemens and Johnson.

 

WAR

Clemens 5.1 (Won Cy Young)

Johnson 8.1

Sheets 6.9

 

WHIP

Clemens 1.157

Johnson 0.900

Sheets 0.983

 

SO/BB

Clemens 2.76

Johnson 6.59

Sheets 8.25

 

ERA+

Clemens 145

Johnson 176

Sheets 162

 

Sheets was a 4 time All Star. His last season in Milwaukee, he was 13-9 with a 3.09 ERA, and he led the NL with 3 shutouts. He was most definitely a #1, and a star for a period of time.

[The stache]

And I, too, wish Ben the best of luck going forward, and thank him for a great run with the Brewers!!

[Nottso]

Random observations after watching the video:

 

I was crushed when Koskie got hurt.

 

Knowing what we know now, seeing the lineup on the video with Prince hitting 6th behind Jenkins and Koskie looks completely insane.

 

One of my favorite Sheets comedy moments was when he was entering the stadium or had just gotten off the bus, looking possibly even more disheveled than usual, and a reporter asked if he was ready. Sheets never missed a step and replied "I roll outta bed ready. I thought everybody knew that."

[The stache]

I've been getting into an argument on another board. I compared Ben Sheets in his prime to Felix Hernandez. The other poster's response:

 

Wow, comparing Ben Sheets to Felix Hernandez is just laughable. Ben Sheets as you have stated was never close to winning a cy young and Felix is on his way to several in his career. Sheets had good stuff in his prime and injuries were his downfall, but all the numbers you present make him out to be a slightly above average starter at best who once was a #1 starter but never maintained the ability to be one.

 

My response:

 

It's hardly laughable. I just showed the numbers from the 2004 Cy Young race. Sheets was 8th in the voting, which was a joke. His numbers were quite favorable to the guys that finished 1-2 in the race. He should have finished third.

 

In his prime, Sheets was nearly as good as Felix Hernandez. Using the statement "he's on his way to winning several Cy Youngs in his career" would be laughable, however. Using things that haven't happened isn't going to strengthen your argument. You have no idea what Hernandez will do in his career going forward. He's a great pitcher, but he could turn into Tim Lincecum of 2012, or blow his arm out. Plus, I think there's a few other pitchers in the AL that might have something to say about it. Past success is never a guarantee of future success.

 

Let's compare their best years, shall we?

 

Felix won the Cy Young in 2010. 13-12, 2.27 ERA, 1.057 WHIP, 232 K, 3.31 K:BB, 8.4 K/9 IP

Ben Sheets in 2004. 12-14, 2.70 ERA, 0.983 WHIP, 264 K, 8.25 K:BB, 10.0 K/9 IP

 

I'm sorry, but at their best, Sheets was every bit as good as Hernandez, and the numbers back it up. He had a better WHIP, more strikeouts per 9 IP, and a much better strikeout to walk ratio.

 

If you want to take it a step further, look at their numbers over the course of their careers:

 

Hernandez: 1.212 WHIP, 3.10 K:BB, 8.3 K per 9 IP

Sheets: 1.219 WHIP, 3.59 K:BB, 7.5 K per 9 IP

 

They are quite comparable. And those are the only numbers a pitcher really has control over.

 

The problem was that the arm issues started nearly as soon as he realized his success. If you want to say that Hernandez has been better longer, I'd absolutely agree with you. Part of being a great pitcher is reliability. King Felix has been great over a long period, and Sheets never realized that level of dominance again. But to say that it's "laughable" to compare the two at their best is absurd.

[JimH5]

I don't see any way that Sheets compares to King Felix.

 

The wiggle room in your argument is the phrase "in his prime", and I'm not sure if you're only looking at the 2004 season, or a larger sample.

 

Clearly, that season was fabulous, but his ERA was 2.70, and he never had another season under 3.00. Felix has had two seasons under 2.70, in the tougher league.

 

Sheets was susceptible to homers (184 in just under 1600 IP). Felix has allowed just 130 in more IP.

 

Felix has twice lead the league in fewest H/9IP for starters, Sheets was in the strike zone more often and gave up more hits.

 

Felix has 4 seasons over 200 Ks, Sheets has just that 2004 year.

 

Sheets threw 4 shutouts in his career. Felix threw 5 last year.

 

Felix has 7 seasons of 30 starts or more. Sheets had 4.

 

 

That 32/264 was indeed stunning. But there's more to pitching than that.

[Baldkin]

Sheets 2004-2008: 134 ERA+, 5.16 K/BB, 1.095 Whip.

Felix 2008-2012: 136 ERA+, 3.11 K/BB, 1.180 Whip.

 

Yeah, not comparable at all.

 

Yes, Sheets was hurt, and pitched 300 fewer innings.... but when he was on the mound, he was just as good. Context is everything, Sheets pitched in a MUCH higher run environment than Felix.

[JimH5]

Sheets pitched in a MUCH higher run environment than Felix.

 

Do you mean his ballpark?

 

I didn't break it down by five year primes, but here's the career data:

 

Felix has allowed 64 career HR at home and 66 on the road.

Sheets allowed 91 career HR at home and 93 on the road.

 

And the AL always outscores the NL, so I'm not sure what you're suggesting.

[RightFieldCoder]

Miller Park, Wrigley Field, Great American Bandbox, Enron Field, PNC Park, Busch Stadium

Safeco Field, Angel Stadium, Oakland Coliseum, Ballpark in Arlington

 

If I was a pitcher, let me pitch in Group B. Especially with Safeco as my home field.

[logan82]

I think he meant that there have been noticeable drops in run scoring in the last 3ish years.

[JimH5]

I think he meant that there have been noticeable drops in run scoring in the last 3ish years.

 

I think the eras compare closely enough that it's a wash. . .

 

During the Sheets years, the teams in his league scored an average of 4.62 team runs per game.

During Felix's years, the teams in his league scored an average of 4.59 runs per game.

 

That's not a huge gap.

 

Then, if you subtract out the performances of their own teams, Sheets' opponents scored 4.63 runs per game, while Felix's opponents scored 4.66 runs per game.

 

I'm not a statistician, but that seems close enough to not matter.

[The stache]

I'm no more a fan of using ERA to discuss a pitcher's efficiency than I am a fan of using RBI's to discuss a hitter's greatness. Too many things are beyond the control of the player being discussed. A hitter needs to be successful, but also needs to have players on base to get high RBI totals. By extension, a pitcher needs a good defense behind them to help keep their ERA down.

 

Beyond a mere comparison of home ballparks, which would favor Hernandez, you also have to look at the quality of defenses behind the pitchers.

 

When Sheets pitched that gem of a season in 2004, he did so with a defense that was 10th out of 16 teams in defensive efficiency, and 12th out of 16 in fielding percentage. No Gold Glove award winners backing him up.

 

When Felix Hernandez won the Cy Young in 2010, the defense behind him was much better than the team that backed Sheets. The Mariners were 4th out of 14 teams in defensive efficiency, and 7th out of 14 teams in fielding percentage. He also had two Gold Glove outfielders, Franklin Gutierrez and Ichiro Suzuki.

 

What a pitcher can control are the number of walks and strikeouts they get, and how many base runners they allow (again though, the defense plays into this). With a lesser defense behind him, Sheets had a better WHIP (0.983) than Fernandez (1.057), and a vastly superior K:BB ratio (8.25:1 for Sheets, 3.31:1 for Hernandez).

 

You are correct that Sheets never had an ERA below 3.00 again. In 2005, Ben Sheets had a 3.33 ERA, which is still good. His WHIP was still good (1.066, or .09 higher than King Felix in his Cy Young season). His K:BB ratio of 5.64:1 was still outstanding. So why was his ERA higher? The Milwaukee Brewers had the third lowest fielding percentage in all the Major Leagues, and worst in the National League. That might have had something to do with it.

 

When Sheets was healthy, yes, he was every bit as good as Hernandez. The numbers support this statement. And the argument can be made that Sheets, in 2004, was better than King Felix in 2010 when he won the Cy Young.

[JimH5]

When Sheets was healthy, yes, he was every bit as good as Hernandez. The numbers support this statement. And the argument can be made that Sheets, in 2004, was better than King Felix in 2010 when he won the Cy Young.

 

I think your analysis is flawed by a couple of things. . .

 

Sheets was great at limiting walks (2.1 per 9 in his career and just 1.2 per 9 in '04). He was better than Felix at that, as Hernandez is at 2.7 for his career and 2.5 in 2010.

 

But other than making for a gaudy ratio, what is the difference between a guy who allows 1 walk per 9 and another guy who allows 2? It counts for just one extra base. Being in the strike zone that much sometimes comes back to bite you, as it did with Sheets in 2004, giving up 57 doubles, 4 triples and 25 homers.

 

In 2010, in 64 more plate appearances, Felix gave up 34 doubles, 3 triples and 17 homers.

 

If I get fewer XBH and all it costs me are a few more walks, I'll take it.

 

The other thing that I think you're ignoring is Sheets throwing to the opposing pitcher way more than Felix.

 

In 2004, opponents of Sheets put up the following numbers:

.226 BA; .255 OBP; .383 SLG. with 341 total bases

Take away the 72 Plate Appearances that Sheets got to face the opposing pitcher (11 for 67 with 1 BB and 30 Ks), and the numbers are:

.231 BA; .261 OBP; .397 SLG. with 327 total bases

 

In 2010, opponents of Felix did this:

.212 BA; .273 OBP; .312 SLG. with 285 total bases

He only faced a pitcher for 2 plate appearances that year (0-for-2 with 1 K), resulting in a non-pitcher line of:

.213 BA; .274 OBP; .313 SLG. with 285 total bases

 

 

I don't think Sheets at his best was as good as Hernandez at his best, without even taking into account Sheets' injury history.

[Baldkin]

I went with a 5 year peak.

 

Again, you're neglecting to take any account for what parks Hernandez plays in. Considering he pitches in a park that is usually 5% better for pitchers than league average, and Sheets pitched in one that was 5% worse.... it brings them closer together.

[JimH5]

I'm not purposely neglecting the park effects, I just don't know how to quantify them.

 

Safeco is softer on pitchers than Miller Park, but is the difference greater than being able to face weak hitting pitcher 70 times a year vs. facing a DH?

 

I really don't know.