2012-2013 Winter Weather thread

[Patrick425]

I can't believe how many people want snow. No Thanks....I see absolutely no value to it.

[RobDeer 45]

Man, I really want some snow while I'm up in WI from for the next week and a half (leaving Fri). I really miss it down here in southern OH. It's just rainy and soaking wet (only working on my 2nd winter here). I know it's a pain in the butt sometimes but I do really miss the snow.

 

Bring on the snow-nami!

[hawing]

Based on the timing of the heaviest snow, there is a good probability of a large number of closings, even if the totals in Madison are only in the 8" range (although with the new model tracks this morning, the probability of the 10" totals being around Madison has increased).

Indeed - if it really gears up overnight, that is the best timing model for closings. That would match the approximate timing for several of the most recent UW-Madison "snow days" - the Groundhog Blizzard in 2011, the December 2009 snow day and the one in December 1990. There was another big overnight storm in December 1987, but the next day was the campus study day, so there were no classes to cancel.

 

I still don't think that would bode well for UW-Madison this time, as it would be difficult at best to reschedule Thursday's finals. But for MMSD, sure; so I'd say NMF has a solid chance if the current forecast holds.

[owbc]

The Weather Channel has named this storm "Draco". LOL.

[adamb100]

Well there goes the streak. Milwaukee is getting a nice coat of snow right now.

[RobDeer 45]

So I briefly looked at this storm coming, but I was curious if any of you weather guys had some thoughts on travel. I'll be arriving in Chicago anywhere between 7-9 pm on Thursday night. My plan is to leave to early AM and make my way to Mnpls. Do you think there will be major travel issues? Dumb or not, I feel pretty good traveling in storms and we do have a large all wheel drive SUV.

[TURBO]

I can't believe how many people want snow. No Thanks....I see absolutely no value to it.

 

I am in this camp.

 

I hate the snow, and hate even more driving in it. I teach in a school district which is 30 minutes from where I live. That 30 minute drive can be pretty hazardous when we have snow storms. It isn't driving in the snow so much that bothers me, but dodging the idiots that have no sense when it comes to driving in snow. Especially the people with 4 x 4 vehicles think they are bullet proof.

 

If everyone would slow down, leave for work a bit earlier, it wouldn't be so bad, but for some reason, people are unable to use common sense in the snow.

[owbc]

So I briefly looked at this storm coming, but I was curious if any of you weather guys had some thoughts on travel. I'll be arriving in Chicago anywhere between 7-9 pm on Thursday night. My plan is to leave to early AM and make my way to Mnpls. Do you think there will be major travel issues? Dumb or not, I feel pretty good traveling in storms and we do have a large all wheel drive SUV.

 

It looks like it will be still snowing at that time, including in Chicago. I recommend waiting until Friday morning because of the potential for strong winds and blowing snow as the storm moves out. An SUV doesn't help with visibility. I don't know if you are flying into Chicago but I think there is the potential for flight cancellations on Thursday evening, especially at O'hare. There is speculation that the weather service is going to go with blizzard warnings for much of southern WI away from Lake Michigan. That will probably trigger more cancellations/closures than a winter storm warning.

[RobDeer 45]

I'm driving from OH to Chicago and the plan was to stay there overnight. 2nd leg of the trip is the next morning. I'm just wondering if I'll only hit the storm just outside of chicago, coming up 65, or if it will be hitting a lot of IN.

[TooLiveBrew]

Saw this posted to reddit: compiled NWS snowfall forecast for WI

[owbc]

That map is outdated, here's the latest.

 

RobDeer, you will probably run into problems right when you reach Chicago. Indiana should be ok. The I-94 corridor between Milwaukee and Chicago will actually see some of the heaviest snow rates and strongest winds out of anywhere in this storm for about a brief period Thursday night. Those 4-5" snowfall estimates in Milwaukee will come almost entirely in just a few hours and will be accompanied by winds gusting over 40 mph.

 

The new map also raises the forecast for the Madison area up to 10-16 inches.

[fondybrewfan]

Is that some kind of joke? 15 inches in Fond du Lac. I like snow put man that shoveling after work on Thursday will be brutal. If the 15 inches actually happens; I have to imagine it will be one of the larger snow events going back a while.

[hawing]

That map is outdated, here's the latest.

Awwwww! (said like Homer Simpson) The NWS snowfall prediction map had been ranging from the 11 inch zone to the 9 inch zone for Madison. Now it's 14.2"?! I hope our neighbor has his snowblower ready. (He likes to clear his property, ours and that of the neighbor on the other side of us. Yes, he is a good guy.)

[BrewCrewForever]

I am in Germantown which is right around where Washington, Waukesha and Milwaukee counties all kind of meet. Looks like I will be getting 6"-8", is that about right OWBC?

[owbc]

My opinion is that Germantown is too close to the lake and will see less than 6". It all depends on when you turn over to snow. That area right near the sharp gradient of snowfall totals is the most difficult to predict.

 

For those of you in the all snow area, today's model runs definitely look more impressive than the last few days. Especially for the probability of convective and thundersnow. Hence the higher amounts.

 

Even though my research is in tropical meteorology now, these big snowstorms are still exciting to follow. Especially one like this which is straight out of a textbook.

[Patrick425]

That map is outdated, here's the latest.

 

RobDeer, you will probably run into problems right when you reach Chicago. Indiana should be ok. The I-94 corridor between Milwaukee and Chicago will actually see some of the heaviest snow rates and strongest winds out of anywhere in this storm for about a brief period Thursday night. Those 4-5" snowfall estimates in Milwaukee will come almost entirely in just a few hours and will be accompanied by winds gusting over 40 mph.

 

The new map also raises the forecast for the Madison area up to 10-16 inches.

 

 

owbc, if I start on the noaa home page, what is the best way to navigate to that map? I searched all over that site yesterday to try to find a predicted accumulations map and could not find it.

[NeedMoreFans]

owbc, if I start on the noaa home page, what is the best way to navigate to that map? I searched all over that site yesterday to try to find a predicted accumulations map and could not find it.

 

Go to http://www.weather.gov

 

From there, just click where you want to see the forecast. The snow predictions have been under the "Top News of the Day" on the Milwaukee NWS site, then just scroll down to the map.

[JackNicholson1974]

Here is the ridiculous thing about naming Winter storms. When a hurricane hits, it has a name, Sandy, for example and the entire nation knows it by that name. When a snow storm hits, like the one upon us, we have the National Weather guys calling it Draco and we have the local guys calling it Brianna. Why cant they all see how pathetic it is that they are forcing these ridiculous names upon us. Just call it what it is, the Dec. 20th snow event, or whatever. This is ridiculous. Do the local and national guys even know the others are calling it something different>?

 

So when I tell my grandkids about how I lived through this storm, will it be known as Draco or Brianna?

[owbc]

Here is the ridiculous thing about naming Winter storms. When a hurricane hits, it has a name, Sandy, for example and the entire nation knows it by that name. When a snow storm hits, like the one upon us, we have the National Weather guys calling it Draco and we have the local guys calling it Brianna. Why cant they all see how pathetic it is that they are forcing these ridiculous names upon us. Just call it what it is, the Dec. 20th snow event, or whatever. This is ridiculous. Do the local and national guys even know the others are calling it something different>?

 

So when I tell my grandkids about how I lived through this storm, will it be known as Draco or Brianna?

 

Yeah that's basically the opinion of 95% of the meteorological community. Judging by the reception so far, I expect the Weather Channel to end their experiment after 2012.

[Patrick425]

Here is the ridiculous thing about naming Winter storms. When a hurricane hits, it has a name, Sandy, for example and the entire nation knows it by that name. When a snow storm hits, like the one upon us, we have the National Weather guys calling it Draco and we have the local guys calling it Brianna. Why cant they all see how pathetic it is that they are forcing these ridiculous names upon us. Just call it what it is, the Dec. 20th snow event, or whatever. This is ridiculous. Do the local and national guys even know the others are calling it something different>?

 

So when I tell my grandkids about how I lived through this storm, will it be known as Draco or Brianna?

 

Local stations are using names too? I assumed this was just a Weather channel thing. What local stations are doing this (are you in Milwaukee?)?

 

I guess I"m not as down on this idea as others are. Why is this any more ridiculous that naming hurricanes? Also, why have local stations decided to come up with their own set of names, when they don't do that for hurricanes? I'm guessing it has something to do with the fact that it's the Weather Channel doing the naming of snow storms and not a government agency, so local network news affiliates do not want to appear like they have some sort of connection with the Weather Channel.

[fondybrewfan]

My mother in law just called and said she is giving me my Christmas present early; a snow blower. Needless to say I am thrilled with probably atleast 12 inches of wet snow waiting for me tomorrow night. I have an awesome mother in law.

[JackNicholson1974]

Here is the ridiculous thing about naming Winter storms. When a hurricane hits, it has a name, Sandy, for example and the entire nation knows it by that name. When a snow storm hits, like the one upon us, we have the National Weather guys calling it Draco and we have the local guys calling it Brianna. Why cant they all see how pathetic it is that they are forcing these ridiculous names upon us. Just call it what it is, the Dec. 20th snow event, or whatever. This is ridiculous. Do the local and national guys even know the others are calling it something different>?

 

So when I tell my grandkids about how I lived through this storm, will it be known as Draco or Brianna?

 

Local stations are using names too? I assumed this was just a Weather channel thing. What local stations are doing this (are you in Milwaukee?)?

 

I guess I"m not as down on this idea as others are. Why is this any more ridiculous that naming hurricanes? Also, why have local stations decided to come up with their own set of names, when they don't do that for hurricanes? I'm guessing it has something to do with the fact that it's the Weather Channel doing the naming of snow storms and not a government agency, so local network news affiliates do not want to appear like they have some sort of connection with the Weather Channel.

 

I dont know why they name hurricanes, but at least hurricanes have a set of parameters that need to be met to be called hurricanes. Any time it snows more than a few inches are we supposed to call it a name?

 

I am in Oshkosh so I get Green Bay weather. Fox11 is calling this Winter Storm Brianna. They have been doing this for a while. It is completely stupid.

[owbc]

There is still some uncertainty about exactly where the rain/snow line will be for most of Thursday. It might set up closer or even west of Madison, or it might be around Waukesha. Areas in between that have a large range of possible snowfall totals, they could get double or half of the forecast depending on how things play out. My confidence that Madison will see 12"+ totals has definitely been eroded. It's still > 50% but not nearly as certain as before. I guess we will see.

[hawing]

Welp, UW-Madison has decided to only run essential services on Thursday. In-person final exams will not be held. Instructors can offer an alternate exam or grade students based on their body of work during the semester.

 

This closes all of the UW-Madison libraries, except mine. As a non-UW state agency, we can't close unless the governor orders state agencies to close to the public. He hasn't made up his mind yet. I wish he'd pick one or the other. (I don't mean for that to be a political statement. Jim Doyle took his sweet time deciding what to do before a 2009 storm.)

[fondybrewfan]

As of a 7 PM update; the NWS has Madison at 18 inches and FDL at 16. Even if there is more rain than expected and totals come in less it still looks like totals will be substantial