What can we expect with Aoki?

[TooLiveBrew]

From July 7 through the end of August, his OPS was .664... so no he's not lacking in slump spells. He is what he is, which is a solid OBP bat against RHPs. But as a hitter, he's nothing more than that.

[PrinceFielderx1]

I'd have Gamel as the RF option. He's a heck of a lot faster than Hart. Hart looked so good at 1b that I'd keep him there

 

Exactly. The Brewers want Gamel to be more versatile (RF,LF,1B,3B etc..) I'd be shocked if Gamel isn't the 1st priority back-up in case of injury or under performance. Hart bailed out every infielder last season defensively. He's actually a very good overall 1B man.

[PrinceFielderx1]

From July 7 through the end of August, his OPS was .664... so no he's not lacking in slump spells. He is what he is, which is a solid OBP bat against RHPs. But as a hitter, he's nothing more than that.

 

I don't believe that's fair at all. He played in 151 games and had 520 at bats, shouldn't we go off of what he did over the entire season? I think so. He was a very impressive lead off hitter that made the opposing defense look silly a lot. He really came on strong in the second half of the season as well, so perhaps he can offer us more; especially since 2012 was his first season playing baseball outside of Japan. Makes sense, actually, the more I think about it.

[SRB]

One thing that I think is interesting about Aoki's season is his BABIP. The tools that made him such a prodigious hitter in Japan, and helped him have such a solid season in MLB last year, are his speed and his ability to spray the ball all over the field to find an opening. In that respect (and his batted ball distribution) he is very similar to Ichiro; who obviously comes from the same professional upbringing in NPB (although Aoki has less power and LD% than Ichiro).

 

To me, I would expect a player with that type of hitting style to have a well-above-average BABIP. For example, Ichiro has a career .347 BABIP and a career best of .399, which has always been the foundation of his high averages (though now he is getting old and slower). But Aoki's BABIP last season was a very normal .304. Makes you wonder if he might actually have been unlucky last year, and whether we could expect a higher AVG next year given his skillset and what I would expect to be a higher BABIP.

 

(This also seems to be supported by the xBABIP metric -- which it looks like would have expected Aoki to have a .339 BABIP last season given his batted ball data and speed)

[logan82]

From July 7 through the end of August, his OPS was .664... so no he's not lacking in slump spells. He is what he is, which is a solid OBP bat against RHPs. But as a hitter, he's nothing more than that.

 

I don't believe that's fair at all. He played in 151 games and had 520 at bats, shouldn't we go off of what he did over the entire season? I think so. He was a very impressive lead off hitter that made the opposing defense look silly a lot. He really came on strong in the second half of the season as well, so perhaps he can offer us more; especially since 2012 was his first season playing baseball outside of Japan. Makes sense, actually, the more I think about it.

The comment was was in response to "a consistent hitter lacks in slump spells."

 

Besides

Pre All Star .301 .369 .450 .819

Post All Star .278 .344 .419 .763

[PrinceFielderx1]

From July 7 through the end of August, his OPS was .664... so no he's not lacking in slump spells. He is what he is, which is a solid OBP bat against RHPs. But as a hitter, he's nothing more than that.

 

I don't believe that's fair at all. He played in 151 games and had 520 at bats, shouldn't we go off of what he did over the entire season? I think so. He was a very impressive lead off hitter that made the opposing defense look silly a lot. He really came on strong in the second half of the season as well, so perhaps he can offer us more; especially since 2012 was his first season playing baseball outside of Japan. Makes sense, actually, the more I think about it.

The comment was was in response to "a consistent hitter lacks in slump spells."

 

Besides

Pre All Star .301 .369 .450 .819

Post All Star .278 .344 .419 .763

 

and all he is, is a hitter with a solid OBP bat against RHP's? I don't think so. Again, his overall 2012 season stats are impressive, and it makes him a good full-time lead off hitter.

[logan82]

and all he is, is a hitter with a solid OBP bat against RHP's? I don't think so. Again, his overall 2012 season stats are impressive, and it makes him a good full-time lead off hitter.

You said he came on strong in the second half. His second half stats actually were worse than the first half. Did the league adjust to him? He has an okay bat with a decent OBP but is a guy I would be looking to replace. There is as much to suggest he will hit worse next year as there is to suggest he could hit better. The sample size is to small to say much for sure.

 

 

This also seems to be supported by the xBABIP metric -- which it looks like would have expected Aoki to have a .339 BABIP last season given his batted ball data and speed

How well does the xBABIP model work for a guy like Aoki? Does he hit the ball on the ground as hard as most guys?

[Ennder]

Stats won't really help in deciding what Aoki is because the sample is just too small and we have no idea how he will adjust to pitching and how pitching will adjust to him. The range of outcomes for Aoki next year is just huge. He could be useless, he could be an all star, he could be anywhere in between. That is why i definitely think we need to hedge our bets a little bit and get a solid #4. Especially considering we don't really know whether Gomez can hold up full time either.

[Invader3K]

To me, Aoki doesn't look like a player who is suddenly going to decline. He might regress a bit defensively as he gets older, but he seems like the kind of batter who will remain fairly productive for a long time. Anyway, he is very cheap for what he provides.

[brewcrewdue80]

Started a good discussion.

 

Picked a nice stretch to show there is a slump in him July 7-end of August. I only looked at actual month stats vs trying to look at every possible 30game stretch possible. Which July 7-end of August is more than 30games. Even an added stretch he finished the month at .260/.342.

Putting his OPS means including his slugging and my statement was that he hits the ball to get On Base. When you're slapping singles you won't have a strong Slg obviously. But Aoki can steal 2nd to make up for that.

What's your number on BA/OB to be a good hitter? .288 is levity for me. I've always thought .268+ as acceptable give or take 10pts depending on defense/power/OB.

If Aoki worst month is .260 I can't see him not beating the .268 number I hope to see.

 

Just wanted to add the key is Braun is consistent, Aoki Batting with consistent BA/ob means Braun+Aoki equals constant production each month. Braun as we know has 6+HRs/mo in him. Aoki is likely to be OB ahead of quite a few of them. Aoki's speed also translates to scoring on those Braun XBHs. How many times did we watch Aoki lead off a game and get OB?

[monty57]

I'm fine with starting the season with an OF of Braun, Gomez, Aoki with Schafer and Gamel as the backups. I'd also be fine with trading either of Gomez/Aoki if the right deal came along, as I have confidence that Schafer can be a MLB starter, and if Gamel can show any aptitude in the corner OF spots, he could be our best option for RF in the near future.

 

Aoki was a good pickup by Melvin (although I think he was surprised he got him with the low bid). He helps the team for a low price, and I do like high OBP guys in front of our sluggers, but he certainly isn't "untouchable." If someone wanted to trade for him bad enough, I'd trade him. Conversely, if he would be willing to sign an extension for the low rate we're currently paying him (around $1.5-2MM/year), then I wouldn't be opposed to extending him, as there's little risk at that cost. I wouldn't extend him at $8-10MM/year, which is probably closer to what he'd get in free agency.

[TooLiveBrew]

Aoki is the definition of a competent starter/player the team should be looking to improve upon. I have nothing against him, but he's not a difference-maker at the plate or in the field. Ideally, a better RF comes along to push him either to CF or to a 4th OF role, where he'd be able to be shielded from LHP.

[yoshii8]

I'd like to pick up Scott Hairston as our 4th OF/semi platoon w/ Aoki, he does very well vs. LHP's and provides a lot versatilaty in the OF.

[umphrey]

Aoki is a solid player out producing his contract. If he was blocking a top prospect, I would try to move him. As is, whatever we would pay in dollars or trade ammo to upgrade over Aoki would not be well spent. I'd rather use it on pitchers, starter or reliever. I'll be happy to have a solid OBP and steals OF hitting at the top of the order next year who also plays pretty good defense for cheap.

 

I disagree that he isn't a difference maker. Those 7+ pitch ABs followed by a walk or single can really change an inning.

[brewcrewdue80]

What if Aoki improves? He's always been a Batting Title contender on the Japanese team he was on. Having read his Wiki page Aoki is a great teammate and he accepts whatever role his manager asks of him. As poster above me stated. We have a .275+/.340+ hitter in RF at less than 2mil/year. He's a menace on the basepaths.

I don't get what someone sees wrong in what he does for his price. He gives you great ABs. He's not a prospect, should be on team for 2 more yrs. I don't know what better is out there for Brewers than what Aoki gives at the price.

 

As a small market club the team needs players like him, cheap veteran with quality ABs. He's a better hitting Counsell. Aoki at this point should only be replaced in house or from a trade that brings in a ML high prospect who's cost is similar to Aoki's.

[TURBO]

I do not understand the lack of love for Aoki...

 

Once he took over an every day role on this team, our offense flourished.

[monty57]

I do not understand the lack of love for Aoki...

 

Once he took over an every day role on this team, our offense flourished.

 

I like Aoki. From the minute they won the bid, I said they should trade Morgan while his value was somewhat high and let Aoki take his role (at the time Morgan was slated to be the LH part of a CF platoon with Gomez). When they got him for the steal of the deal they signed him to, I was very happy. I was only upset that Roenicke said he was going to be his "right handed bat off the bench."

 

Aoki performed to what should have been his expectations after his stellar career in Japan. However, I've pretty much gotten over "loving" a player. I love the Brewers and want them to do whatever is best for the team. Most likely, that will be starting Aoki in RF full-time in 2012. However, we don't know what will happen between now and then, and Melvin should always be on the lookout for anything that would help the team now and into the future.

 

If a team called Melvin tomorrow and made a ridiculous offer for Aoki, I would hope that Melvin would accept the offer.