What can we expect with Aoki?

[502 to Right]

A .300 OBP is never good.

 

Again, can he play against some lefties? Sure... but would the team be better off with a RH OF (Mench-Type) to spell him against LHP? I'd say almost invariably yes.

 

Casey Stengel and Earl Weaver, among others, would strongly agree with you. Myself included.

[Polish Falcons]

Can anyone answer for me, or refer me to articles explaining this: What prompted Aoki to come to the MLB in the first place? When he signed with the Brewers he wasn't guaranteed a starting position. It seems odd to me that a star starting Japanese player would come to the U.S. when they don't even know if they would be starting and also sign for a relatively modest salary ($1.5 million per year). Did he just have a burning desire to see how he would fare in the highest level baseball league there is?

 

 

Here is a quote from Doug Melvin:

"He never asked about [playing time], he's just confident that he can come over and show us his skill set," Melvin said. "He wants the challenge of playing here in Major League Baseball. He's met a lot of challenges in Japan. He's won batting titles, he's won Gold Gloves, he's been an All-Star. You have to talk to him, but I think he [likes] the challenges of coming over here."

 

He actually took a pretty big pay cut to prove himself in MLB. He was earning $4.2 Million/year in Japan.

 

 

Another note, he has a good chance to receive around $1m incentives the next couple years if he stays healthy and is the everyday outfielder. http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7494442/milwaukee-brewers-norichika-aoki-set-earn-1m-2012-125m-2013

[DHonks]

I'd say that Nori is a solid contributor on offense and likely worthy of being our RF. My worry is still CF next year. I could at least see Aoki getting his OPS into the .800s. Gamel, Gindl, or Khris Davis might find themselves playing some RF with Aoki in CF. Basically, Aoki reminds me of a left-handed Brady Clark.

[MNBrew]

A LH Brady Clark? Geez. Brady Clark originally (meaning when he came up w/ CA) was seen as having potential been good at several things but ultimately never proved terribly good at anything -- and by his later MIL years proved very well that he could become pretty terrible at many things .

 

The only way I think those two players belong in the same sentence are these two:

1. Nori Aoki & Brady Clark each played OF for the Brewers.

2. Nori Aoki is already much better than Brady Clark ever proved to be.

[DHonks]

Brady Clark with the Brewers was solid defensively and very strong in terms of OBP. I'm not sure much was ever expected from Clark given that he was undrafted. I also don't think he ever played with the Angels, but he did come up with Cincinnati. Let's look at Brady Clark's 4 years in Milwaukee:

84 2b, 30 hr, .284/.361/.393/.754, pretty good defensively in RF, mediocre in CF

 

Nori in 1 year in Milwaukee:

36 2b, 10 hr, .285/.352/.433/.785, plays very good RF, would be capable in CF

 

MNBrew, I think perhaps we're valuing Brady Clark differently. I'm viewing him as a guy with no real tool but a knack for contributing a little bit in every category. His best year in Milwaukee (2005) compares very favorably with Aoki's season, except for Aoki's much higher stolen base total/rate. I think you're viewing Clark as another Brewers scrub from the bad seasons, not the solid contributor that he was. He's no David Hulse or Kevin Mench. I meant that Aoki is a worthwhile starter for his good seasons, but we should have a capable backup plan for if/when he declines.

 

edit: Your second statement is just not true. Clark had a better year in Milwaukee than Aoki.

[HiAndTight]

Those are nice words but I'll believe when it actually happens.

 

 

When a guy's already done something, doesn't that lead you to believe him when he says he's willing to do it again?

 

He made it clear when he signed a below market value deal signing for 3/27, especially since it was HIS idea to approach the Brewers about an extension because he liked Milwaukee and didn't want to get traded.

 

I've consistently believed Hart was going to fall off a cliff, however he hasn't, he's continued to get better IMO and he makes such a profound impact on the teams IF defense that while I've advocated trading him the last several years, he's convinced me he's worth re-signing if it's a 3 year type deal.

 

 

And this isn't the type of cliche comments you hear about liking where you play. He goes out of his way to articulate how he wants to end his career in Milwaukee and wants to stay with this group.

 

My only complaint now....he wasn't a better salesmen as Greinke didn't take his advice.

[chickinbrickin]

I agree Aoki isn't the greatest against lefties, but what he brings to the table outside of ba and obp aren't measured. He always puts together quality abs, and that benefits the rest of the lineup. I think having him in the leadoff spot stabilizes the lineup. Also, would a platoon and irregular abs reduce his effectiveness against rhp?

[rluzinski]

Aoki has had a very nice year and for what Melvin paid for him, he was a steal. He still doesn't project to be a very good option leading off against LHP, however.

 

I just like that we have a real good leadoff batter again, one who isnt always swinging for the fence (weeks) or striking out a lot (weeks). its just nice to see that problem solved!

 

Huh? Weeks' batting line batting lead off for the, career:

 

.258/.356/.444

 

That's basically identical to what Aoki did this year. Who cares if a lead off hitter strikes out anyway? If his overall numbers are good, his K rate is largely irrelevant.

 

Now if you are referring to his terrible start to this season, you need to expand your memory.

[logan82]

I agree Aoki isn't the greatest against lefties, but what he brings to the table outside of ba and obp aren't measured. He always puts together quality abs, and that benefits the rest of the lineup. I think having him in the leadoff spot stabilizes the lineup. Also, would a platoon and irregular abs reduce his effectiveness against rhp?

So guys getting on base in front of Weeks, Braun and Ramirez does not matter much? Hard to get RBI's with nobody on base.

[monty57]

So guys getting on base in front of Weeks, Braun and Ramirez does not matter much? Hard to get RBI's with nobody on base.

 

Unless I'm missing something, he got 182 ABs this season vs LHP and has a .321 OBP against them. His overall OBP is .356. While .321 in a small sample isn't great, it certainly isn't screaming for a platoon partner. I'm happy Roenicke finally decided to move "the power guy" out of the leadoff spot and "the bunting guy" out of the two-hole. If for nothing else then stopping the "Leadoff batter reaches base, #2 batter bunts him to second, Braun gets intentionally walked" scenario, I'm happy to see Aoki-Weeks rather than Weeks-Aoki.

 

We can expect Aoki to hit for empty batting average with good but not great defense. We can hope for something more like we got from him this year but we can't just expect it. The same thing can be said for Gomez. If Hart is going to stick at 1B they need a RH CI type to add depth in the OF IMO just in case one or bother of these guys regress to expectations.

 

Aoki had done about everything he could've done in Japan baseball-wise. Many people's pre-season expectations for Aoki seemed to completely disregard anything Aoki did while in Japan. He has always hit, and he came over here and hit. Prior to the season, I said that I expected Aoki to be similar to Morgan, except that he wasn't completely lost against LHP. After watching him for a season, I believe he has "regressed to expectations."

 

I'm always up for adding more talent to the roster, and I think Schafer will be the 4th OF (assuming Braun, Gomez, Aoki as starters), and Schafer could very well work his way to platoon partner with Gomez in CF, leading to his becoming the full-time starter in 2014 when Gomez leaves as a free agent. Assuming Hart is still around, Gamel will probably be the backup 1B/corner OF. I agree that it'd be nice to have a decent RH bat on the bench, but I've hoped for that for a long time.

[Bnowell4evr]

Everyone is saying that Aoki needs a platoon partner so how about Khris Davis? He's turning 25 in a couple months so its not like he's too young to play in the bigs and he's produced quite well against LHP in the minors.

 

I know everyone is concerned about his rag arm that limits him to LF but we heard the same thing all offseason about Aoki and he worked out just fine in RF.

[logan82]

So guys getting on base in front of Weeks, Braun and Ramirez does not matter much? Hard to get RBI's with nobody on base.

 

Unless I'm missing something, he got 182 ABs this season vs LHP and has a .321 OBP against them. His overall OBP is .356. While .321 in a small sample isn't great, it certainly isn't screaming for a platoon partner. I'm happy Roenicke finally decided to move "the power guy" out of the leadoff spot and "the bunting guy" out of the two-hole. If for nothing else then stopping the "Leadoff batter reaches base, #2 batter bunts him to second, Braun gets intentionally walked" scenario, I'm happy to see Aoki-Weeks rather than Weeks-Aoki.

I blame myself for that one. I was posting under the assumption that previous posters had posted accurate stats for Aoki when they said he had a .300 OBP against LHP.(which might have been true at the time) A .300 OBP would scream platoon to me for a corner outfielder. His .269/.321/.390/.711 line against LHP I wouldn't have much problem with. Not great(when you consider right handed corner outfielders are not exactly hard to find) but not worth messing with the lineup.

[monty57]

So guys getting on base in front of Weeks, Braun and Ramirez does not matter much? Hard to get RBI's with nobody on base.

 

Unless I'm missing something, he got 182 ABs this season vs LHP and has a .321 OBP against them. His overall OBP is .356. While .321 in a small sample isn't great, it certainly isn't screaming for a platoon partner. I'm happy Roenicke finally decided to move "the power guy" out of the leadoff spot and "the bunting guy" out of the two-hole. If for nothing else then stopping the "Leadoff batter reaches base, #2 batter bunts him to second, Braun gets intentionally walked" scenario, I'm happy to see Aoki-Weeks rather than Weeks-Aoki.

I blame myself for that one. I was posting under the assumption that previous posters had posted accurate stats for Aoki when they said he had a .300 OBP against LHP.(which might have been true at the time) A .300 OBP would scream platoon to me for a corner outfielder. His .269/.321/.390/.711 line against LHP I wouldn't have much problem with. Not great(when you consider right handed corner outfielders are not exactly hard to find) but not worth messing with the lineup.

 

 

That's why the 182 ABs is probably the most important stat in that whole paragraph I wrote. With that few ABs, one good night can make a whole lot of difference. Coming into the season, I heard that he hit lefties pretty well... probably not well enough for Roenicke to call him his "right handed bat off the bench" but well enough to not need a platoon partner. I couldn't understand prior to the season why so many people (national baseball people) wouldn't give Aoki any credit for all he'd done in Japan. I'm just glad that it has worked out for him and the Brewers.

[Ennder]

It isn't so much about finding a platoon partner. It is about having a solid option to fill in should one be needed. Aoki and Gomez both have a huge range of plausible outcomes next year so balancing them with a RH OF capable of not being wasted in a bench role but also capable of stepping in on a regular basis if needed would be wise. I don't want to just stick some young guy in there if he would be better served playing every day in the minors.

[torts]

Ash and Melvin apparently stated that Aoki will be in RF next year in their presser this morning!

[monty57]

It isn't so much about finding a platoon partner. It is about having a solid option to fill in should one be needed. Aoki and Gomez both have a huge range of plausible outcomes next year so balancing them with a RH OF capable of not being wasted in a bench role but also capable of stepping in on a regular basis if needed would be wise. I don't want to just stick some young guy in there if he would be better served playing every day in the minors.

 

I agree with that. I've been hoping for that RH guy off the bench who could sub in for corner OF or 1B for quite a while and Melvin can only seem to find LH batters for the bench. Just a guess, but we'll probably see Schafer as the 4th OF who can play any of the positions, with Gamel getting a few starts in LF/RF as well as 1B. As much as I've lobbied for Hart to be traded for top young talent this offseason, if I had to bet, I'd say he'll be the Brewers' 1B in 2013. That leaves Gamel on the bench, and he'll probably be handed an OF glove and be told to learn how to use it if he wants some PA's next year.

 

With Gamel, Maldonado, Schafer and Bianchi on the roster, that leaves one open bench spot. A slugging RH corner OF/corner IF would be nice, but we'll probably see another slap-hitting utility guy.

[TooLiveBrew]

Aoki finished 5th in NL ROTY voting

 

Link

 

1st: Bryce Harper WAS

2nd: Wade Miley ARZ

3rd: Todd Frazier CIN

4th: Wilin Rosario COL

[JohnBriggs12]

Aoki made the entire lineup better. What a terrific find. I just wish he were 3-4 years younger. I don't think finding a RH corner OF is a priority at all. This team has right handed thunder up and down the lineup. Aoki helps balance it out and he's a great leadoff guy. Even against lefties, it helps to have a lefty or two in the lineup just to give the opposing pitcher a different look. Aoki is enough of a pest, he'll make the guy work too. He is so impressive situationally. He could probably hit 25 HR if he wanted to but he only looks to drive it in certain situations. It seemed every HR he hit was in a tight game.

[Ennder]

We will just disagree then. Aoki put up a highly mediocre season for a corner OF and he exceeded my personal expectations. If we go into the season with Gomez and Aoki penciled in full time with no real backup plan it could derail the entire OF pretty easily. I think the bullpen and at least one reliable full time starter are the top priorities but a solid backup OF is right up there as the next most important thing we find.

[monty57]

I don't think finding a RH corner OF is a priority at all. This team has right handed thunder up and down the lineup.

 

I'm thinking more of a RH bat off the bench with some pop. That player is usually a backup corner OF/1B. Right now, our primary RH bat off the bench is either Bianchi or we have to use our backup catcher everyday as a pinch hitter. Melvin just seems to have a penchant for fielding a RH-heavy starting lineup and a LH-heavy bench.

[JohnBriggs12]

We will just disagree then. Aoki put up a highly mediocre season for a corner OF and he exceeded my personal expectations. If we go into the season with Gomez and Aoki penciled in full time with no real backup plan it could derail the entire OF pretty easily. I think the bullpen and at least one reliable full time starter are the top priorities but a solid backup OF is right up there as the next most important thing we find.

 

Hart is the fall back guy and would go back to RF if someone is needed there long term. They have either Gamel or Morris to replace him at 1B.

 

As for the RH pinch hit role, in the everyday Brewer lineup, the only guy they will PH for is the pitcher, and I just don't see a lot of opportunities for a backup. Roenicke has no qualms about using his backup catcher to PH, and there's Bianchi too. The logical FA names out there like a Reed Johnson or a Matt Diaz might be looking for a bigger role. They could also add a RH middle infielder to the mix. Sure Cody Ransom had trouble making contact but he hit some big HR late too and he gives them double switch options. So I wouldn't be shocked if they tried bringing him back assuming he's non-tendered in Arizona.

[DHonks]

I'd have Gamel as the RF option. He's a heck of a lot faster than Hart. Hart looked so good at 1b that I'd keep him there

[Eye Black]

Nice Fangraphs article on Aoki for those who may have missed it. Nice to see him get some recognition for being a big part of the late season surge. My favorite line of the article... "His season was so impressive that you could probably win a lot of bar bets by simply knowing that only three players managed to hit at least 10 home runs, steal 30 bases, and have an OBP of .350 or more last year: Braun, Mike Trout… and Aoki."

[logan82]

Unfortunately there is also this part.

 

Though the ten homers were a surprising touch, there’s no doubt about the game Aoki plays, and it relies heavily on speed. He led all batters in successful infield hits, with 34, and only seven qualified batters hit the ball on the ground more than Aoki’s 55.4%.(Perhaps unsurprisingly, only five hit fewer line drives than his 16.9%.) Though his BABIP was a reasonable .304, it’s the kind of profile that makes you worry there’s a steep cliff for a player on the wrong side of 30

 

I don't think he will fall off a cliff yet but I am not sure we should expect the same level of play next year. I wouldn't be surprised to see Gamel out in RF for a large part of the season.

[brewcrewdue80]

Can anyone just attribute his ability to control the bat and hit balls on the ground where he feels an ability to make it to first? I don't see Aoki losing so much speed that attributed to legging out hits between now and next season. Saying "it's the kind of profile that makes you worry there's a steep cliff for a player on the wrong side of 30" would be worrisome to me if I were signing him as a FA based off of last season to a 4-5year deal. If he does fall off the cliff then the Brewers don't have to pick up his option for 2014. Of course I don't see how they couldn't even on a down 2013.

I fully expect Aoki to continue doing well what he did last year. And Aoki could probably hit a higher line-drive rate if he wanted. Gotta remember he's a Japanese player who likely grew up on fundamental hitting vs. hitting for power/HRs as what's happened in MLB since the 90s.

I'm actually hoping should he keep up with last year's numbers, Brewers go an added 2years with option on 3rd in 2016. He gets OB. ahead of Braun. That's what I'm asking for from the 1/2 batters for Milw. His worst OB month last year was .342. BA at .260 same month for a .288 season hitter. I love a consistent hitter lacks in slump spells. Braun is the same type of player. Aoki is one of the Least of my worries for 2013 like Braun.