Braun's season-ending push

[LouisEly]

"and has made 62(!) more outs on the season than Trout"

 

Mostly because he's had 68 more plate appearances than Trout.

[topper09er]

I dont think Braun can get to 200 hits but he is now 4 behind McCutchen for the league lead.

[Baldkin]

"and has made 62(!) more outs on the season than Trout"

 

Mostly because he's had 68 more plate appearances than Trout.

 

My point being, if you're going to praise him for having better counting stats, you have to punish him for where he's been worse as well.

[Bombers]

Article on ESPN about Braun ... Last line says: Ryan Braun is a hell of a ballplayer who performed well enough to win another MVP award.

 

http://m.espn.go.com/mlb/story?storyId=8436308

[fondybrewfan]

Jeff Passan at yahoo also says he would give Braun the MVP but knows that he won't win it

[jerichoholicninja]

If Braun doesn't win, you can blame the PED hullabaloo. But you also equally blame Axford. If he doesn't tank for half the season the Brewers almost definitely win a wild card spot.

[TURBO]

But you also equally blame Axford.

 

...and K-Rod, and Loe, and Parra, and Veras...

 

Man, our bullpen was an absolute mess.

[brewmann04]

If Braun can catch mccutch and pass chase for the RBI leads , it be hard not for him to not get it.

[BrewersSuperCollector]

If Braun can catch mccutch and pass chase for the RBI leads , it be hard not for him to not get it.

 

 

IMO...I think many have their minds already made up.

[brewmann04]

I agree no matter what he does the Writers in their holy than thou attitude will not vote for him, it stink.

[dlk9s]

I agree no matter what he does the Writers in their holy than thou attitude will not vote for him, it stink.

Then why did you say it would be hard for him not to get it?

[Ennder]

Trout is the AL MVP and no the triple crown shouldn't matter. Cabrera will win it though.

 

Braun should win the NL MVP and no the PED thing shouldn't matter and neither should falling a few games short of the playoffs. Posey will win it though.

 

The person who should win the MVP rarely does win it. Maybe like 20% of the time or so, so it doesn't matter much.

[StearnsFTW]

Trout is the AL MVP and no the triple crown shouldn't matter. Cabrera will win it though.

 

Braun should win the NL MVP and no the PED thing shouldn't matter and neither should falling a few games short of the playoffs. Posey will win it though.

 

The person who should win the MVP rarely does win it. Maybe like 20% of the time or so, so it doesn't matter much.

 

I agree with all of this.

 

Trout & Braun should win. Cabrera and Posey will.

 

The Cabrera one is a joke IMO.

[torts]

who was the last ROY/MVP? Ichiro?

[torts]

Trout will be the first ROY/MVP winner since Ichiro

[TooLiveBrew]

The Cabrera one is a joke IMO.

How is it a joke that a guy OPSing 1.000 with Comerica Park as a home field might win the AL MVP?

[topper09er]

The Cabrera one is a joke IMO.

How is it a joke that a guy OPSing 1.000 with Comerica Park as a home field might win the AL MVP?

 

The biggest reasons that Trout is so far ahead in WAR over Cabrera are both a little questionable.

 

1 is defense, and a single season of defense should not be completely trusted.

 

2 is the OPS+ numbers. Cabrera has 38 point lead in OPS (1.001 vs .963) but a 4 point deficit in OPS+ (166 vs 170). What is going on there? Apparently Angel Stadium is now a pitchers paradise, it has the same park factor as San Diego (92)??? Just 4 year ago it was a neutral park and had been forever. And Trout is hitting better at home vs the road, so those numbers are getting an even bigger boost.

 

If not for these 2 factors the WAR difference would be pretty close, probably similar to Braun/Kemp last year.

[Tedaldtada]

The Cabrera one is a joke IMO.

How is it a joke that a guy OPSing 1.000 with Comerica Park as a home field might win the AL MVP?

 

The biggest reasons that Trout is so far ahead in WAR over Cabrera are both a little questionable.

 

1 is defense, and a single season of defense should not be completely trusted.

 

2 is the OPS+ numbers. Cabrera has 38 point lead in OPS (1.001 vs .963) but a 4 point deficit in OPS+ (166 vs 170). What is going on there? Apparently Angel Stadium is now a pitchers paradise, it has the same park factor as San Diego (92)??? Just 4 year ago it was a neutral park and had been forever. And Trout is hitting better at home vs the road, so those numbers are getting an even bigger boost.

 

If not for these 2 factors the WAR difference would be pretty close, probably similar to Braun/Kemp last year.

 

Maybe it's me, but I hardly need a defensive metric to tell me adequately that Trout is a much more valuable defensive player than Miggy. We could honestly be talking about the best (Trout) and worst (Miggy) defenders in the league.

[Baldkin]

You forgot base running (not including stolen bases). Trout has been 10 runs better than Miggy on the base paths this year.

 

Let's look at wOBA as well, which includes stolen bases.

 

Trout: .423

Cabrera: .417

 

Trout has been as good an offensive player as Cabrera, before you account for base running. And before you account for any defensive value.

[thebruce44]

I really hope they don't use an unproven and inaccurate stat like WAR to decide an MVP...

 

I'm always amazed when someone reads a long, well thought out post that casually mentions WAR and just laser beams in on it.

[dlk9s]

I don't see how it's a joke that a guy about to win the Triple Crown would win MVP, but I, too, think Trout is the MVP. Obviously, he's a hitting machine. He's clearly an elite defender already and he tears up the basepaths. He has been phenomenal is every aspect of the game.

[topper09er]

Im not saying Trout isn't deserving but I find the WAR gap very questionable, usually a SABR fan will be the first to scream that a one year defensive value should be questioned but Im not hearing that very much this year with regard to defense. Im not saying it is wrong just that I have not noticed anyone questioning it in the way they do with every other sample size issue. I find it much more questionable that Angel Stadium is now Petco Park, that is having a significant effect on Trout's WAR and I dont really like park factors to begin with. From 2009 back forever Angel Stadium was a neutral park more or less, but now its the best pitcher's park in the AL besides Seattle?

[trwi7]

You can watch Trout play and see that's he's an outstanding defender. Even if you watch him play and don't think that you can see that he's at the absolute worst an average defender and much better than Miggy.

[MJLiverock]

Ahh the good old inconsistencies of WAR and the abuse of trying to prove player Z is worth X number of wins over player Y.

 

It looks pretty strange when the Angels have the highest aggregate WAR of 37.8 and 89 wins while the Tigers have a WAR of 21.2 and 87 wins, so 16.6 difference in WAR is 2 wins? In reality once you start looking at team WAR and compare to actual wins the numbers are all over so I have a hard time buying into any of the a 5 WAR player is worth 1 win over a 4 WAR player.

 

After the Angels the Brewers are #2 in WAR at 35.1 with 82 wins, Cards at 34.9 and 87, Giants 30 and 93, Braves 29.8 and 93, Yankees 29.7 and 93, Nats 29 and 96, Reds 27.4 and 96, Diamondbacks 27.3 and 80, Rangers 26.6 and 93, Padres 25.6 and 75, Phillies 24 and 81, A's 23.1 and 92, Tigers 21.2 and 87 down at the bottom the Astros are 10.1 and 54, Indians 12.5 and 73, Mariners 12.5 and 67 and the Orioles 15.9 and 92.

[StearnsFTW]

I think they're pretty much equal offensively, although I would give Trout a slight edge due to base running. Trout's defense makes it a joke to me. Also, I'm a closet Angel fan, so I may be clouded a little bit.