The Speed/Power Milwaukee Brewers

[MJLiverock]

I concur that bunting and base stealing are tools to have in the arsenal. The Brewers are stealing at an 80% rate, which puts them in the black. As implied directly above, stealing and bunting shouldn't be overly relied upon. But they do have their time and place. Attempting to steal against a team like the Pirates, who have trouble throwing out runners, would seem to be a good idea.

 

Great points. Picking and choosing the time to steal or bunt is the key to the situation. It burns me everytime someone trots out the expected scoring chance for runners on 1st and 3rd and 0 or 1 outs. Those numbers rely on an aggregate average of all players not the specific combination of pitcher and batter actually on the mound or game situation. There is a vast difference in expected runs scoring with 1st and 2nd and 0 out or 1 out with Braun and Ramirez due up vs. the likes of Izturis and the pitcher. I can't complain about using guys like Izturis or bottom of the order guys to bunt every time in that situation. Even at the top of the order with a Morgan or a struggling Lucroy if the game is looking like a run is hard to come by off a tough pitcher who is on, it all comes down to situation and taking advantage of it rather than a monte carlo simulation of thousands of totally unrelated and not really similar situations.

 

Watching the running vs the Pirates was great. If a team wants to put such a defensive liability like Barajas out there then just run him ragged until they either pull him or quits from embarrassment. Earlier this year at Miller Park after he a bomb versus the Brewers my wife commented on his physique and I said I was surprised he was still playing, he has power but is atrocious behind the plate, hadn't thought about it since until this series and watching the Pirates fans pray for little league type mercy rule on the base stealing.

[Oxy]

It burns me everytime someone trots out the expected scoring chance for runners on 1st and 3rd and 0 or 1 outs. Those numbers rely on an aggregate average of all players not the specific combination of pitcher and batter actually on the mound or game situation. There is a vast difference in expected runs scoring with 1st and 2nd and 0 out or 1 out with Braun and Ramirez due up vs. the likes of Izturis and the pitcher. I can't complain about using guys like Izturis or bottom of the order guys to bunt every time in that situation. Even at the top of the order with a Morgan or a struggling Lucroy if the game is looking like a run is hard to come by off a tough pitcher who is on, it all comes down to situation and taking advantage of it rather than a monte carlo simulation of thousands of totally unrelated and not really similar situations.

 

 

Good points, I agree. Another thing to consider is that the most commonly used run matrix relies upon data from 1999-2002, which is probably among the greatest four year stretches of offense in the history of the league. As teams and players score fewer runs and hit fewer home runs, the value of each individual run is much greater in terms of wins and losses. This makes the benefits of aggressive baserunning and quality defense that much more important (Or that much more detrimental if you are giving away too many outs).

[logan82]

There is no doubt in my mind that had Hart stayed in RF this year, Aoki would have rotted on the bench, never allowing us to see what we had...

I think Aoki would have taken more time from Gomez in CF. After Gamel got hurt, they used Ishikawa at 1B until giving Hart a shot. Only then did Aoki move over to RF. By then he was already taking the majority of starts in CF.

Correct me if I am wrong but didn't Ishikawa get hurt before Hart started getting a lot of playing time at 1B?

[MJLiverock]

Looks like the last game Ishikawa played before injury was May 25th and was out for a month. Gamel went down on May 1st so May was really the time of trying to find a first baseman. Hart started appearing at 1B in box scores by at least May 15th so just before Ishikawa went down. It looks like the Brewers were trying to give Green and Ishikawa some playing time at 1B but Ishikawa was forcing the playing time by putting up much better numbers than Green. In May Ishikawa was .375/.525/.900 in 40 ABs vs. Green at .300/.326/.626 in 43 ABs. I think Hart started working in as they looked for a RH option at 1B because they actually had used Brooks Conrad at 1B in May.

 

Aoki appears quite often in CF and RF during May racking up 73ABs so I wouldn't say he was rotting on the bench prior to Ishikawa going down.

[TURBO]

Had Hart stayed in RF this season, Aoki would not have gotten regular playing time in my opinion. He may have gotten some time in CF with Gomez, but with Plush still on the roster, who knows how much. My point was not exactly ROTTING on the bench, which I understand is how I stated it, but rather the fact that he would never been penciled in as a regular starter, allowing us to see what he could do on a regular, consistent basis.

[TooLiveBrew]

The only thing that bothers me regarding Aoki is the narrative the Brewers & the FSN guys push that he can hit lefties. Even as just the v.RH platoon guy he looks to be, he's an absolute steal on his contract. Craig Counsell should be proud of the video scouting work he did, and kudos to Melvin for scoring huge on this FA signing.

[TURBO]

If Aoki was so good in Japan, how hard was it to find him? Seriously? If he was a HUGE star in Japan, it doesn't seem like it took a lot to find him...

[TooLiveBrew]

If Aoki was so good in Japan, how hard was it to find him? Seriously? If he was a HUGE star in Japan, it doesn't seem like it took a lot to find him...

Not sure if this response was to my post or not... pretty sure it was.

 

Being a star in NPB doesn't necessarily translate to results in MLB. I think CC does deserve credit (obviously, given my last post) for scouting his swing.

[TURBO]

Not saying that being a star in Japan translates into being a star in MLB, I'm saying that FINDING the stars of Japanese baseball shouldn't be very difficult to do if you are looking for them.

[1992casey]

The problem is that Japanese players are very difficult to project. There simply isn't enough statistical information to work with. We know who the players are, but we don't know what they'll do as major leaguers. When making the decision whether or not to sign a Japanese player, it's necessary to rely on good scouting. The Brewers deserve credit for deciding that Nori was worth signing.

[Thurston Fluff]

I thought when he was signed Melvin said they didn't really scout the league. Am I misremembering that?

[reillymcshane]

I thought when he was signed Melvin said they didn't really scout the league. Am I misremembering that?

I thought I remembered that too. The Brewers seemed surprised they had won the bidding for him, and were not sure what they had with Nori.

 

No matter - he's on our team and had a fine, fine year. I think his skillset should age pretty well, so (hopefully) he can continue to produce for a few more years.

 

And the guy looks so happy all the time. Gotta love that.

[Baldkin]

They have him signed through next year only. After that he is a FA. It's not like he's a guy they drafted and goes through arby.

 

He'll be gone, for more money than they should be paying him after next year (probably).

 

Melvin was shocked they won the bidding, and there was a whole thread about how they hadn't really scouted him at all. I have no idea how Counsell is now suddenly getting credit for scouting him.

[ninja33]

I don't think they scouted him very much, but I definitely remember quotes about Counsell contributing reports and such after watching video of Aoki. I think what little scouting was done on him was mostly from Counsell

[logan82]

They have him signed through next year only. After that he is a FA. It's not like he's a guy they drafted and goes through arby.

 

He'll be gone, for more money than they should be paying him after next year (probably).

 

We have an option. Not really sure what we will be paying him for the rest of his contract or what the option year will cost. Per Cots

 

Norichika Aoki of

2 years/$2.5M (2012-13), plus 2014 option

 

2 years/$2.5M (2012-13), plus 2014 club option

signed by Milwaukee 1/17/12

12:$1M, 13:$1.25M, 14:$1.5M club option ($0.25M buyout)

performance bonuses based on games (75-150) and starts (100-140):

$1.675M in 2012, $0.8375M in 2013, $1.0875M in 2014

2013 salary increases by one half of 2012 bonuses earned

Milwaukee won negotiating rights with $2.5M bid after Aoki was posted by Japan’s Yakult Swallows 1/12

agent: Nez Balelo

ML service: 0.000

[1992casey]

Given that this is Aoki's first big league season, he should be under Milwaukee's control, contract or not, for six years.

[adambr2]

Given that this is Aoki's first big league season, he should be under Milwaukee's control, contract or not, for six years.

 

Are you sure on this? I thought it was different for international free agents.

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't think they scouted him very much, but I definitely remember quotes about Counsell contributing reports and such after watching video of Aoki. I think what little scouting was done on him was mostly from Counsell

Yep, DM came out & said they didn't scout the NPB. It later came out that Counsell did the scouting via video & signed off on Aoki's swing translating to MLB.

[1992casey]

Given that this is Aoki's first big league season, he should be under Milwaukee's control, contract or not, for six years.

Are you sure on this? I thought it was different for international free agents.

I can't say I'm 100% sure, but I can say that I've never seen anything suggesting that anyone's granted an exception to the arbitration and free agency procedures outlined in the CBA.

[jerichoholicninja]

Given that this is Aoki's first big league season, he should be under Milwaukee's control, contract or not, for six years.

Are you sure on this? I thought it was different for international free agents.

I can't say I'm 100% sure, but I can say that I've never seen anything suggesting that anyone's granted an exception to the arbitration and free agency procedures outlined in the CBA.

 

Depends. Cespedes will be a free agent when his contract is up because that's what he wanted in his contract. I don't know about Aoki.

[mothershipconnection]

If Aoki was so good in Japan, how hard was it to find him? Seriously?

 

I was at a conference over Memorial Day weekend and we had dinner with a couple of colleagues from Japan. One is really into baseball and I told him I'm a Brewers fan. He immediately began grilling me in his limited English as to why the Brewers weren't playing Aoki more. Our entire dinner conversation was him trying to convince me that he should be played every day, as if I were Melvin or Roenicke.

[Thurston Fluff]

By that point wasn't Aoki already an everyday player? Or did he mean a Prince Fielder, never get a day off, type?

[1992casey]

I can't say I'm 100% sure, but I can say that I've never seen anything suggesting that anyone's granted an exception to the arbitration and free agency procedures outlined in the CBA.

Depends. Cespedes will be a free agent when his contract is up because that's what he wanted in his contract. I don't know about Aoki.

Good find.

 

Here's an article on Cespedes' contract:

 

Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes, Oakland agree on contract

 

Cespedes will earn $6.5 million this year, $8.5 million in 2013 and $10.5 million in each of the final two seasons of the deal. He can become a free agent at the end of the contract, which is the highest for a Cuban defector.

This implies that unless a provision is made in the player's contract, international signings are subject to the normal procedures outlined in the CBA. I think we have to assume that Aoki's contract lacks such a provision unless we hear otherwise.

[joepepsi]

Fukudome had a 4 year deal with the Cubs and was granted free agency when that contract was up. International players are not subject to the same rules as draft eligible players. I believe they are treated like free agents when they sign.

[endaround]

Yes they are. Unless the contract states that the team will non-tender the player you need 6 years of time to become a UFA.