Who will win the 2012 NL MVP?

[brewmann04]

Just curious as the Brewers get closer to the wild card any Chance Braun get the Award or are the Media going to blackball him.

[torts]

if Brewers stay in the hunt for that 2nd WC, Braun should win... but even if that happens, I dont know that he will win. It'll come down to Braun, McCutchen and Posey more than likely.

[jjfanec]

If the Brewers make the playoffs it is between Braun and Posey. If the Pirates make the playoffs it is between Posey and McCutchen. If only the Giants make the playoffs (the most likely scenario) Posey wins it. So I am going to go with Posey

[Hitman_Hart]

I honestly think if Milwaukee gets in Braun wins. If they don't it will be Holliday.

[brewmann04]

I think Braun # are better than Posey but if they win i can see why Posey get it.

[JohnBriggs12]

I think a small percentage of the media will blackball him. That's why Posey has the edge right now even if the Brewers sneak in. Hard to argue that Posey isn't deserving either. He's put up great numbers for a catcher on a winning team and Braun's had some substantial help.

[dlk9s]

I don't think Braun has a chance to win the MVP, regardless of how he and the Brewers finish. Baseball writers will refuse to vote people into the HOF for dumber reasons than suspicion of PEDs.

[1992casey]

Added to the Designated Threads List.

[Bombers]

If the Brewers finish something like 16-4 over their last 20 games and Braun has some huge moments then he has a realistic shot. But I think some media members will blackball him. It sucks as he has played great. Hopefully his recent injury doesn't hamper him down the stretch. All we can hope for is the Brewers continue this hot streak through game 163.

[BoxedWineWarrior]

Anyone catch Witrado's SN article last night (sorry, trouble linking from my phone)? Makes a case for Braun deserving it but making it clear the concerns listed here about him being blackballed are valid.

 

Even if they did something like finish 16-4, I don't think he wins.

 

He should, though. He's been amazing

[fondybrewfan]

I am also not giving Braun much of a shot. Even though he might out OPS Holliday and Posey by a significant margin; the PED issue is gauranteed to lose him some votes. And honestly this Brewers run still hasn't been recognized nationally all that much so if the Brewers don't make the playoffs or it doesn't come down to the last 1-2 games I just don't see Braun being considered much.

 

I could see a lot of people voting him 2nd; they will recognize that he had a great year but they don't want him to win it because of the PED issue. If someone votes him any lower than 4th than it is a crime because there sure as hell aren't 3 or more guys having better years than Braun.

[pretendastronaut]

Here's Witrado's article, which I think seems pretty spot on with the reality of the situation;

 

http://aol.sportingnews.com/mlb/story/2012-09-11/ryan-braun-nl-mvp-ped-testosterone-appeal-buster-posey-milwaukee-brewers

 

A couple of weeks ago I thought McCutchen was about the only one with a legit case to compete with Braun, but Posey and Holliday are coming up quite a bit this week as MVP options. Without a miracle run to the playoffs, he doesn't get it, even if he should.

[topper09er]

I wonder if blacklisting him means that people will refuse to list him first? I doubt anyone would completely leave him off the ballot? He might end up with almost all 2nd place votes and the first place votes may be split among Posey/McCutch and Braun could sneak into it. The 1991 NL was an infamous blacklist effort against Bonds and he still got 10 first place votes.

[fondybrewfan]

Well I am sure the MIL voter will put Braun 1st if he deserves it. He will get some 1st place votes; but if any voters just leave him off the ballet or put him lower than 4th he won't have much of a shot because Posey and Hollliday won't be put any lower than than on any ballet.

[Outlander]

I think that is what will hurt him the most, the individuals that leave him completely off the ballot.

[jerichoholicninja]

I think that is what will hurt him the most, the individuals that leave him completely off the ballot.

 

Anyone that leaves him completely off the ballot should lose their voting privileges.

[Ennder]

Well if you only look at teams that are somewhat in the playoff hunt and sort by WAR/wOBA you get the following names as candidates.

 

Braun

McCutchen

Posey

Aramis

Yadier Molina

Holliday

 

My guess is out of that bunch that they will go with Posey unless someone really steps up that is on the fringe. Braun should win it but I don't see it happening.

[Patrick425]

I really am not saying this from a biased view point, but I don't understand how Braun would not be the leading candidate at this point? He leads in OPS, RBIs, HRs, and has more SBs than either McCutchen or Posey. Between Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, and SF I don't think success of the team should really be a factor since it's not like any of these teams are 20 games below .500. I honestly don't understand the debate.

[RightFieldCoder]

[blue]He took steroids and got off on a technicality![/blue]

[olliegjw]

What really stinks is that nobody should even know about the possible suspension/testing problems. Without that distraction, Braun would win the MVP rather easily, I believe.

[stoutdude04]

I agree with the person who said they were unbiased. Last year Braun and Kemp were at least close(if I remember correctly). This year I feel like Brauns stat line is better then the rest.

[gregmag]

The Witrado article very misleadingly suggests that Braun admitted to misconduct in the PED case, choosing only to challenge the chain of custody. In fact, as we all know, Braun professed his innocence consistently and argued that the chain of custody may have been the cause of what he argued was a false positive. Witrado remains a truly bad, not very bright writer.

[jjfanec]

I agree with the person who said they were unbiased. Last year Braun and Kemp were at least close(if I remember correctly). This year I feel like Brauns stat line is better then the rest.

 

Braun's offensively stat line is better but Posey isnt far off and he is a catcher. He is OPS is way better than any other catcher just like Braun is compared to other LF in the NL. Both are almost .90 points higher than other NL players at their position. That is impressive. If Matt Holliday gets any votes over Braun it is a joke

[Ennder]

The Witrado article very misleadingly suggests that Braun admitted to misconduct in the PED case, choosing only to challenge the chain of custody. In fact, as we all know, Braun professed his innocence consistently and argued that the chain of custody may have been the cause of what he argued was a false positive. Witrado remains a truly bad, not very bright writer.

 

Yeah Witrado is awful. Braun never said anything concrete in any of this, he just isn't a moron and realizes that you can't attack the results in a case like this, you can only viably attack the procedure because that is how the rules are written.

[reillymcshane]

Even if we make the playoffs, Braun won't win it because there will be a segment of voters who won't vote for him because they are convinced he took PEDs. Some writers won't put him first. Some might not even put him on the list because of it.

 

Some writers will cite the 'integrity' line and not give him the vote. Others will find a 'viable alternative' - a guy who comes close to Braun who doesn't have the PEDs stain. A guy like Posey is perfect. You can make a realistic argument for him. Tough position. Excellent stats. Sure they aren't as good as Braun, but Posey plays a tougher position. A lot of writers will let that argument sway them over just so they don't have to pick Braun.

 

If Braun's numbers were outrageously good - like the old Barry Bonds numbers - then he could win. Everyone suspected Bonds was a 'roid monster, but his numbers were so good he kept getting votes.

 

I should stress that it only takes a few guys to have this attitude to spoil Braun's chances. I'm not saying that a 75% of the voters will take this path - but it will be enough to spoil any chance Ryan has of winning.