I like our young starting pitching.......................BUT

[jjfanec]

How has Peralta earned a spot? By walking a ton of guys?

 

Counting on Rogers to stay healthy for an entire season is a heartbreak waiting to happen.

 

Peralta has had two starts. He walked 4 guys in one and 1 guy in the other. So he has not walked a ton of guys in his two starts. Unless you were talking about in the minors.

 

Rogers is a risk but a risk worth taking in my mind.

 

Between Estrada, Rogers, Peralta, Thornburg, and Narverson you would think we have 3 starters. I know some people think Narverson is done but there were just some encouraging reports on him.

[endaround]

I'm talking about AAA where he has struggled greatly with his command. And his control wasn't that good in AA in 2011.

 

There are always encouraging reports about rehabbing players. Narveson was a 1-1.5 win player before the injury. Given his K rate he might have a future in relief, but to hope for more than that is wishful thinking right now.

[Ennder]

1 to 1.5 WAR means above replacement and should be starting on a major league team, it is almost average major league player which means could easily start for almost any team in baseball. Narveson is a completely viable #5 starter, no reason to think he is a future bullpen guy at this age at least.

[DHonks]

After rotator cuff surgery, I'm not holding out hope for Chris. I would rather a guy coming off TJ surgery anytime. I really liked Narveson before, but I'm not sure if we'll even tender him a contract now

[Roderick]

There is no saving revenue for future use.

 

Of course there is. My advice, don't switch to a job in the accounting field.

[CheezWizHed]

At some point isn't that spending money just to spend money though?

 

If you're getting value on a starting pitcher capable of improving your rotation, no I don't think that's spending money to spend money as long as the Brewers can afford to spend it, especially when the pitching pool is rarely this deep. Any decision obviously has to have a baseball side and a financial side to it.

 

Just to emphasis And That's point, all of us would sign Grienke for 3 easy payments of $19.95, while none of us would sign him to $300M for 10 years. Somewhere between those extremes is a point where you say its worth it. That point is up for debate, of course.

 

Thus with a deep pitching pool, there is a good chance that someone will come at a bargain rate. And since DM isn't in a situation where he MUST find an SP, he can bargain shop a bit (probably his best quality as a GM).

[MJLiverock]

Where is this deep FA pitching pool I see mentioned? Outside of a small group all I see are a bunch of old, oft injured guys, reclamation projects, and has beens.

[MNBrew]

I've seen Francisco Liriano included on some people's lists of FA SPs to consider. After watching him up here the past several years, I really hope to see him at Miller Park . . . pitching for the visiting team.

 

He's a long, long way from being the pitcher he used to be.

[jerichoholicninja]

Isn't Kuroda a free agent? The guy's been nothing but solid his whole career.

[And That]

Where is this deep FA pitching pool I see mentioned?

 

I guess it depends on how you define "deep" - the talent level of the group of free agent starting pitchers relative to the group of starting pitchers that will remain under contract this offseason isn't great, and it never will be. However, the group of free agent starting pitchers is quite deep when you compare it with previous offseasons.

 

It isn't a bunch of top end guys (though there are a few of those), but there are a bunch of starters who will deservedly get multi-year deals, if they want them. Among them, Joe Blanton, Ryan Dempster, Zack Greinke, Edwin Jackson, Hiroki Kuroda, Colby Lewis (if healthy), Francisco Liriano (maybe not deserving, but probably will get one), Kyle Lohse, Shaun Marcum (if healthy), Brandon McCarthy (if healthy), Anibal Sanchez and Joe Saunders.

 

Other guys like Ervin Santana (if his option is declined), Carlos Villanueva, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jeremy Guthrie, Kevin Correia and Erik Bedard will all get major league deals, if not for more than a year.

 

Some teams will fill rotation holes via trade, which further dilutes the pool.

 

That's kind of a lot of guys who are capable of giving lots of at least decent major league innings.

[Thurston Fluff]

If you're getting value on a starting pitcher capable of improving your rotation, no I don't think that's spending money to spend money as long as the Brewers can afford to spend it, especially when the pitching pool is rarely this deep. Any decision obviously has to have a baseball side and a financial side to it.

 

I guess it depends on how you define value. I think someone may be worth more than he is getting paid and still not be a value to a particular team. Someone else could be overpaid and have more value for that same team. A lot of it depends on if that player adds something the team did not have.

[paul253]

Counting on Rogers to stay healthy for an entire season is a heartbreak waiting to happen.

Mark Rogers' arm has been healthy for three full seasons now. He pitched all of 2010 and all of this year. I'm not concerned about the fluke double carpal tunnel syndrome he had last year. Obviously he's still a risk but I don't think the risk is as bad as some people make it out to be.

[adambr2]

 

There is no saving revenue for future use. If there was the Brewers would have a $150m payroll right now.

 

Yes there is. There is no CBA restriction on a salary floor or how much of your revenue must be invested in payroll, to my knowledge. If you're profiting $15M one year on a $100M payroll and your revenue and other costs/taxes remains the same and you have a $70M payroll, your profit increases to $45M.

 

That $45M is retained earnings and invested for future use. I don't think that's an unreasonable assumption, that's simple economics.

[And That]

A lot of it depends on if that player adds something the team did not have.

 

I would argue that the Brewers do not have "enough" pitching, if they hope to contend next year. A Gallardo/Fiers/Estrada/Rogers/Peralta rotation might be decent, but the odds of everyone both panning out and sticking in the rotation for a significant portion of the season aren't good enough to pass on a good deal for a veteran pitcher, if you can get one.

 

That rotation is a couple of bad performances or injuries away from Jimmy Nelson, Ariel Pena, Johnny Hellweg or Taylor Jungmann needing to contribute. Even that's based on the reliance of Thornburg and/or Burgos. That might be fine in 2014, but not next year.

[Thurston Fluff]

I think we just disagree on the amount of risk our young pitching represents. Yes some are not quite ready. They won't have to be right away next season. Yes some of our projected starters might not pan an out. But most of them have some degree of success already and all of them have pretty good stuff. I don't know how much more risk they are than any starter on the list for the money we'd have to pay. By the time some fail or get hurt there are enough other options that a capable replacement is likely to be there. As likely our a veteran is to be for the money anyway. Granted that is taking a risk but, as Wolf, Suppan and Gagne proved everything has some risk to it. It's a matter of mitigating the amount of risk. Frankly I don't see why taking that money and spending it on more relievers is more of a risk. Even if some of the relievers don't pan out. Or keeping it in case another K-rod, money dump, type trade comes up.

 

Mark Rogers' arm has been healthy for three full seasons now. He pitched all of 2010 and all of this year. I'm not concerned about the fluke double carpal tunnel syndrome he had last year. Obviously he's still a risk but I don't think the risk is as bad as some people make it out to be.

 

I agree on pretty much everything you said. I am not that worried. Partially because of the depth of pitching we have and partially for the reason's you gaVE. However it's hard not to remember arguing Ben Sheets injuries were all freak, one time things as well. Not that one is indicative of the other but just hard to shake the "here we go again," syndrome after Sheets.

[TheCrew07]

I'm not sure it's fair to qualify all of Sheets' injuries as freak occurrences. Given how things worked it seems that one injury led to the next and so on. I think sometimes people underestimate how easy it is for anyone to develop compensation injuries, athletes or not. I don't think it's a stretch to link all of the pitching related injuries together for Sheets. The same thing happened with Mike Jones... one injury snowballed into 3 different surgeries, those things happen.

 

Compensation injuries are one of the primary reasons I don't want baseball players returning before they are near 100%. Baseball is periods of extreme inactivity sandwiched around furious bursts of quick twitch muscle activity, it's much different than the other major sports. I'd rather players spend an extra week or 2 to get completely healthy instead of coming back and getting re-injured in the same place, getting a compensation injury someplace else, or under performing like Weeks after his wrist surgery.

[FVBrewerFan]

I wouldn't get too caught up in who's a #2 or who's a #3, etc. Fiers and Estrada have pitched very well this year in starting roles. Rogers and Peralta have shown they have the stuff. Then you still have Thornburg and Burgos. At any point in the season one of those guys will look like a #2, some other guy will look like a #5. All that will get sorted out over the next 3 years.

 

I feel perfectly comfortable with that rotation, and don't want a Looper or Wolf type to make me feel better there's a scrappy veteran in the rotation. Would lobe to have a LHP in there somewhere, but oh well.

[And That]

I feel perfectly comfortable with that rotation, and don't want a Looper or Wolf type to make me feel better there's a scrappy veteran in the rotation.

 

I don't think that those of us who want the Brewers to look into getting a FA SP want them to get Looper MK2. No one is proposing giving Freddy Garcia a few years and a rotation slot.

 

A guy like Anibal Sanchez, however, could float under the radar a little bit and he's be an excellent addition even though he's a bit of a fly ball pitcher. If you prefer a lefty, Joe Saunders isn't a world beater, but he'd probably be a solid #3/#4 type. Erik Bedard could be an interesting value signing if his arm is right.

[adambr2]

I'd prefer to spend the money on a short-term deal on a very high value shortstop, but there really isn't one. The upcoming shortstop FA market is awful.

 

If you can get someone like Edwin Jackson or Kuroda for 2/$24M, I'm all for it. Nothing long term. Starting pitching contracts are going to be very market-drive this offseason, so it's hard to predict the costs.

[reillymcshane]

If you go with a rotation of Gallardo, Fiers, say Estrada and a mix of Rogers, Thornburg, Peralta and Burgos, your chances of making the playoffs are greatly diminished because it's unlikely you'll find two rookies who can have great success in the rotation.

 

It's not that these guys couldn't do the job - but it's unlikely. Again, I'm not saying they couldn't succeed - I'm saying that history is against them. There are always exceptions to rules. But to think you will be the exception to the rule is foolish planning.

 

I should also stress that adding a veteran arm would be important if the team is serious about making the playoffs. If management sees 2013 as a 'retooling' year and doesn't think the playoffs are realistic, then all bets are off.

 

The reason you're playing with fire with two rookies in the rotation is that the majority of these guys will likely fail as a starting pitcher. All of these guys we talk about are prospects with question marks. None are elite prospects - the kind of guys in the top 30 or even 50 in prospect rankings. Next year, only Thornburg will probably be in the top 100. That aside, let's just give any pitcher we have the benefit of the doubt and say they are top 100 material. Then go back and look at the pitchers who have been in the Top 100 lists of Baseball America (we could use other lists, but this one is easy and comprehensive).

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/all-time.html

 

If you go back and look at the names of the top 100 guys over the years, you'll find that roughly 1/3 to 1/4 of the pitchers make it as decent starters in their career. I did not go in and look up every single player for 10 or 15 years, but just picked a few years and went through the list of guys and said 'fail' and 'succeed'. I ignored players I knew were relievers to start with. Again, the determination was whether they succeeded as a starting pitcher. That meant a guy like Jason Grilli - who is now an excellent reliever for Pittsburgh - is listed as a 'failure'.

 

The simple matter is that pitchers fail more than not. Injuries are so common. Other guys just can't make the transition. For every Cole Hamals there are three or four others - guys like Ben Hendrickson, Seth McClung, Mike Jones, Manny Parra, Will Inman, Nick Neugebauer.

 

Breaking in a starting pitcher into the majors is a risk. Many of the 'successes' struggled early. That's why it's helpful if the team can have the other rotation spots filled. There will likely be growing pains with a rookie. If we want to be in the playoffs, we want to minimize that to one spot - not two.

 

I don't think anyone advocates adding Kevin Millwood for three years. But if you can find a decent player - Anibal Sanchez or Edwin Jackson, for example, for a decent rate and no more than three years, you consider it. Those guys aren't without warts, but they bring a predictable commodity to the rotation that is valuable.

 

Perhaps others will look at these lists and come to some other determination. But I think history shows that far more often than not, highly ranked pitchers will fail at becoming starters in the majors. Many will become successful relievers. But the success rate as starters is not promising.

 

Therefore, I think it's a poor plan to load up 2/5 of the rotation with such players.

 

Finally, injuries almost always strike teams. Narveson missed all but two starts. Marcum has missed 1/3 of the season. So, as some have pointed out, it never hurts to have more pitching.

[Bnowell4evr]

What are the inning limits were looking at with Rogers, Fiers, Peralta, Estrada and Thornburg next year?

 

That concern is the #1 reason why I want us to sign a FA starter this offseason. We need someone who can go out and pitch 200+ innings with an era at or below 4.00 like we got out of Randy Wolf in 2010 and 2011. The last thing I want to see is us having to shut down our young pitchers in the middle of a playoff chase.

[MJLiverock]

Where is this deep FA pitching pool I see mentioned?

 

I guess it depends on how you define "deep" - the talent level of the group of free agent starting pitchers relative to the group of starting pitchers that will remain under contract this offseason isn't great, and it never will be. However, the group of free agent starting pitchers is quite deep when you compare it with previous offseasons.

 

It isn't a bunch of top end guys (though there are a few of those), but there are a bunch of starters who will deservedly get multi-year deals, if they want them. Among them, Joe Blanton, Ryan Dempster, Zack Greinke, Edwin Jackson, Hiroki Kuroda, Colby Lewis (if healthy), Francisco Liriano (maybe not deserving, but probably will get one), Kyle Lohse, Shaun Marcum (if healthy), Brandon McCarthy (if healthy), Anibal Sanchez and Joe Saunders.

 

Other guys like Ervin Santana (if his option is declined), Carlos Villanueva, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jeremy Guthrie, Kevin Correia and Erik Bedard will all get major league deals, if not for more than a year.

 

Some teams will fill rotation holes via trade, which further dilutes the pool.

 

That's kind of a lot of guys who are capable of giving lots of at least decent major league innings.

 

Here is how I look at that list:

Grienke - - expensive big contract, not likely but still a good pitcher

Dempster - - old and likely to get a mulit year deal for more money than he should

Blanton - - back of the rotation guy but not someone I would get to excited about in Miller Park - Dave Bush

Jackson and A. Sanchez- - interesting, inconsistent but probably the most reasonable combo of age, upside, and salary

Kuroda - - old and likely to stay in NY or go back to LA if on a short deal

Saunders -- similar to rolling the dice on Randy Wolf 3 years ago, maybe OK or maybe terrible depending on money and length

Ervin Santana - HR's have killed his ERA this season, not sure why velocity down and K's down. at least not old and washed up or coming off injury

Lohse - - scares me with his smoke and mirrors putting up results as a Cardinal. low BABIP, high strand rate, no K's

Villanueva - - hasn't been a full time starter, interesting because could be a bullpen, spot starter help

Bedard got cut by the Pirates, he just might be done. Dice-K also appears pretty bad after never living up to the hype and then injuries.

Guthrie and Corriea are 4th or 5th guys something the team already has plenty of.

 

the rest are all prayers that injuries won't make already not too inspiring results. McCarthy's numbers don't look so good outside of the A's park.

 

Jackson and Sanchez, or Santana are probably the only guys I'd be interested in signing out of that group. Dempster maybe if no more than 2 years, maybe Marcum on a 1 year pending how his arm really is and since the team has seen him up close to getter better feel.

Outside of Greinke and Kuroda the rest are 4th or 5th starters when the Brewers should be using Peralta, Rogers, Estrada, Thornburg, in those slots. I just don't see the #2 or #3 starters I would expect to call a free agent class deep, mostly a bunch of usual offseson chaff, back of the rotation guys and reclamation projects.

[trwi7]

What are the inning limits were looking at with Rogers, Fiers, Peralta, Estrada and Thornburg next year?

 

That concern is the #1 reason why I want us to sign a FA starter this offseason. We need someone who can go out and pitch 200+ innings with an era at or below 4.00 like we got out of Randy Wolf in 2010 and 2011. The last thing I want to see is us having to shut down our young pitchers in the middle of a playoff chase.

 

Rogers probably around 170, Fiers and Peralta should be good for a full workload of 200 innings. Estrada should be good for 175-200 and Thornburg should be good for around 175.

[And That]

FanGraphs did a custom leaderboard of players who will be free agents this offseason, which you can find sorted by pitching WAR here.

 

They included Jake Peavy, Dan Haren and Scott Feldman, none of whom I considered as they have options for next season, though the FanGraphs people seem to think they'll become free agents in the end.

 

Take this with the weight that you want to give it. There are a dozen pitchers who posted at least a 2.0 WAR so far in 2012 and 22 starters who have been at least more than notionally above replacement, with WARs of 1.0 or greater. (There were a few relievers with WARs >1.0 as well). Seven of those pitchers have better WARs than Gallardo does this year. Again, this tells me that there are quite a few solid pitchers available, as well as a few really good ones, which rarely happens.

 

It's fine to pick nits with individual guys, and I don't think it would be a good idea for the Brewers to be interested in a number of those 22 pitchers. However, other teams will be interested in some of those guys, and it might drive the price down on the pitchers that the Brewers should be looking at.

 

I agree that they should be focusing on Jackson and Sanchez, though if a guy like Gavin Floyd gets lost in the shuffle and would be willing to come to the Brewers on a cheap deal, that's something they should look at as well.

 

And FWIW, I don't think Dave Bush is a great comparison for Blanton. Blanton is a lot bigger, throws harder and gives up fewer fly balls.

[MJLiverock]

I know it a lightning rod but WAR is a garbage stat to me, even for pitchers. Anyone who throws 150 innings can get a WAR of 1.0, look at 2011 (picked for last full season) of the 107 guys, only 10 didn't put up a 1.0 WAR. Dropping it to only 130 innings only 16 of 126 guys didn't generate a 1.0 WAR. Pretty much any back of the rotation guy can put up a 1.0 WAR, which the Brewers don't need more of, or at least aren't anything to get excited about in my view, every year there are guys like that out there or filling in AAA until injury. Looking at 2012 Roy Oswalt gets a 0.6 WAR for 54 poor innings, if only the Rangers would let him get blasted for another 50 innings he too could get to a 1.0 WAR.

 

I just don't look at this free agent pool as anything special, especially knowing the Red Sox have a ton of money to toss around, the Dodgers and Cubs are wild cards on spending and a number of teams are looking for guys to fill out their rotation creating lot of competition for the limited guys who could improve the Brewers rotation beyond filling from within at the back end of the rotation.

 

Regarding Bush v Blanton if you mean fatter by bigger I agree, both are 6-2 or 6-3 depending on site, Blanton has him by 40 lbs or so but their velocities are pretty similar Blanton 89.4 vs. Bush Career 88.4 both K the same 6.1/9, walk the same 2.3/9, GB similar at 44.1% vs. 42.3%, HR 10.3% and 11.7% even with the help Blanton received by playing in Oakland. http://www.fangraphs.com/comparison.aspx?playerid=4849&position=P&page=4&players=4635