Alright, When did Carlos Gomez turn into Adam Jones lite?

[HiAndTight]

Is the expectation that some team will think Gomez will perform even better next year that what he's done this year?

 

"Selling high" is probably more of a belief that the player is going to crash. If you think Gomez is going to fall back to his old numbers, and you can trade him for the value of someone who is going to continue to play at his current level, then you trade him..

 

My point was, if Gomez continues hitting next year like he did this year, it's not much higher than what his projection suggests he should. He's shown a nice tick in power but it's not like he's having some crazy breakout season.

 

The whole selling high/low thing is just kind of overblown, IMO because most GMs don't think that way. If a career .750 hitter has a surprising .900 OPS season, GM's aren't expecting a .750 or .900 season the following year.

 

In any trade, you're essentially paring your projection off against someone else's projection. If (using your example) you think the player is really a .750 OPS player who "got lucky," all it takes is to find one GM who thinks the .900 OPS is for real... that the player has finally "figured it out."

 

GM's are human beings, and they act independantly of one another. They may all have the same "tools," but they don't use exactly the same projection methodology. One may trust a scout who says the player did something with his swing that means he'll be a .900 OPS player going forward, while another would put more credence in something like ZIPS, and yet another just says "he's always been x, so he will always remain x." GM's have all kinds of reasons they'd do things differently from other GM's.

 

The terminology "Selling high/low" probably is overused, as most trades aren't "sell/buy high/low." I may be stating the obvious, but it's all about how the GM views his player and how he is going to act on that viewpoint. If the "action" is to trade the player, the next move is trying to find another GM who values what you're trying to sell and is willing to give up what you want.

 

To topic, you are probably right that Gomez isn't really a "sell high" situation because his numbers aren't that out of line. Bill Hall or Casey McGehee would've been better examples of "sell high," as they came out of nowhere and put up big years. Using that past history, I would think Melvin would be more apt to try to extend Gomez than to trade him.

 

 

I think GM's may also look at the fact that Gomez is also still just 26 years old. He probably should have spent another couple years in the minors, or at least been sent down when he struggled a great deal.

 

As for your last sentence, I also would love to extend him. I'd love to sign Gomez through his age 30-31 season as I think you can expect 15-20 HR's, 30-40 HR's and a .770 OPS while playing GG caliber defense in CF, but even as a big Gomez supporter, I still don't trust signing him at the money he'll likely cost.

 

Though I do believe the Brewers have and will have a LOT of money in the upcoming years for the reasons I've mentioned(relative to what they've had 2-3 years ago)...ie, our new TV deal, MLB's new TV deal with ESPN that doubled the amount MLB gets to 5.7 million, deals with Fox and CBS that should easily eclipse that number, the luxury tax which will either keep a team from spending in many cases or will put more money in the pockets of teams like the Brewers.

 

That still doesn't mean that I think the Brewers should spend on Gomez what Boras will most likely want when he trots out the upsides for Gomez, his D, power, speed and the lack of power hitting CF'ers. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if Boras wants 10 million a year over 4 years for Gomez. God I dislike that guy.

[endaround]

$10 m? That's way low. $10m is what an average start gets. Gomez has that special number, steals, that make certain baseball men fall in love. Boras can easy project him at 60 steals in a full season. The arby case this off season could be epic.

[danzig6767]

So for those who complain about Melvin never selling high on a player, do you trade Gomez this offseason? I personally would because I feel this year is a fluke and he's a free agent after next season anyway.

 

And who then plays CF for the Brewers next year?

 

Like most here, i'd be very leery of giving Gomez a sizable extension during the offseason and Boras likely would advise Carlos to not sign one unless the money simply was to much to turn down.

 

That said, the Brewers have a chance to be a good team next year and thus there is nothing wrong with just bringing back Gomez to be the CF next year, letting him walk after the season, and taking the comp pick. He also could be traded at the deadline if the team is really struggling for whatever reason, but Gomez is playing well.

 

The only way i'd trade him in the offseason is if some team made such a good offer that i couldn't say no.

[endaround]

Who? Aoki. Schafer. Morgan will likely be cheap.

[pogokat]

this is a lousy offseason to trade gomez with so many free agent center fielders...it's the deepest position.

 

As for keeping him, if he put up a full healthy season as the everyday starter at the rate he has this year, then he's BJ Upton...so, i wouldn't be surprised to see someone throw silly money at him after next year...

 

As for replacing him? I think the names endaround mentioned should do the job

[danzig6767]

Who? Aoki. Schafer. Morgan will likely be cheap.

 

I don't want Aoki as an everyday CF. He practically plays on the warning track each play in RF, doing that in CF would results in plenty of extra balls falling in for hits. Gomez is a vastly superior defender than Aoki. Morgan likely won't be back. As for Schafer, i want him on the roster, but i don't see Melvin just handing the everyday job to Logan. Ideally, Gomez would start most of the games in CF with Schafer getting say 30-35 starts against righthanders. Then hand Schafer the job in 2014.

 

Of course if another team made an offer in the offseason for Gomez that simply was way to good to turn down, sure then i could see pulling the trigger. Barring that, i'd just keep Carlos and let him walk after the season.