Impressions of Jean Segura

[brewcrewdue80]

I highly doubt Segura is ever as good of a hitter as Weeks. He would have to consistently hit .300 to pull that off with his plate approach... that or change approaches.

 

Depends on how you approach what makes your idea of a good hitter vs another's.

Segura projects to K around 14% to Weeks' 24+%. On an avg BABIP in 500 PA you're looking at 15more hits for Segura. So Yes, as a hitter I expect Segura to be as good if not better. If you're a fan of slg% than Weeks obviously destroys Segura and is a far better hitter in that regard.

The determining factor it seems is Segura's Plate Discipline and ability to BB. At the end of the season the final month Segura's BB% was higher than Weeks'. Should Segura keep near that final month's pace of BB% he will compare quite well to Weeks in Walks. So I fully see Segura outpacing Weeks in the BA/OBP. So long as he doesn't K 18% or more of PAs.

 

Segura will provide SBs more than Weeks can/could. I guess it all boils down to my last statement in the"My lineup Makeup expectations" Weeks sorta teases you in every department but doesn't blow any of them away. He doesn't bat .280+ nor steal 20+ which is what I'm looking for in 1/2 He's a 15-20HR player which takes him off the 3/4/5

But then you have that .340+OB and you sit there and think that's doesn't belong in 6/7/8. So, he forces you to bat him in places that just doesn't fit my idea of what he provides. If Weeks didn't K so often then he fits the 1/2 fine. but hovering around 25% K rate just keeps him from ever batting .270+ which means he has to sustain that high BB% to reach a .333+OB which I'd expect at minimum from Leadoff. Weeks' ability to hit for 15-20HRs while a Run scored takes away his OB% in front of the 3/4hitters. It's an odd way of thinking I know, but now you're looking career at a hitter who doesn't get OB .290. While Aoki was at .311OB after taking away HRs.

 

If you're taking a mindset to put players OB ahead of your "Cleanup hitters" Weeks doesn't quite suit me because what he does with his bat. BA/OB-wise for my cleanup hitters. That's what frustrates me with Weeks in a lineup because he's not a cleanup hitter, not a bottom feeder in lineup hitter, and not a true OB top of the order hitter. So, what I see is a guy who's forced to hit 1/2 and provides the team with a streaky lineup on run potential like last year. HRs aside Weeks was a .278OB guy. Hart a .266OB guy, Gomez a .241guy Lucroy a .320 guy. Segura a .313guy. Braun a .314 Ramirez .298

 

So, if you're making up a team to be OB ahead of your Cleanup hitters it would be among Aoki,Segura and Lucroy

This goes to why I makeup my lineup of Aoki,Segura,Braun,Rami,Lucroy. top 5

That's to be a consistent success. one where both Braun and Rami should eclipse 100RBIs easily. Putting Weeks 1/2 is what holds back a Braun/Rami 100+RBI season.

 

This also goes to why I want Hart traded, bat Weeks 6th Gomez 7th and Hart's replacement 8th. Or it's Weeks 6th Hart 7th. On a BA/OB that gives the team the best lineup top to bottom to remain consistent and not streaky.

[Ennder]

There is no reason to think Segura matches Weeks in OBP or SLG so I fail to see the argument here.. Seems like you just hate low AVG guys and are out to ignore them as far as I can tell. Weeks is an elite offensive 2B and has been for years, if he wasn't such a mediocre defensive guy he would be a gold mine. Weeks is also an extremely good baserunner who chooses not to steal much because he has wrist problems and doesn't want to get hurt and because SB just aren't all that valuable.

[brewcrewdue80]

Ender you're right in a small way. I don't like low avg. potential players atop my top 2 in Batting order when they carry an ability to strikeout as often as they can collect hits which for his career like last season, Weeks K'd more than hits. Gomez also, nears on K's outpacing Hits, when factoring in his less than 5% BB% and it's ugly to idea to bat Gomez atop the order.

 

Segura as a rookie K'd 12% and Walked 8% and I wouldn't expect those numbers to change drastically to a k% over 20% like Weeks and Gomez. If Segura continues his 8%BB rate roughly 7-9% that fairs pretty close to Weeks' 10-11% rates while putting the ball in play much more frequently.

 

Weeks never belonged atop the batting order but was put their due to what the team had as hitters. Weeks' Walk rate at least defends him for being 1st in the lineup. But his BA/and K% justifies him to bat lower.

I guess don't get me wrong in what he produces for a 2b is awesome. I just see that currently the Brewers have a 1/2 in Aoki/Segura to finally keep Weeks lower in batting order where he belongs to me. 5/6imo. But, the Brewers being "Stacked with Hitters" and Lucroy/Hart also profile as 5/6 hitters which then pushes Weeks down to 7. Only now you're looking at Gomez at 8 who I just see as an awful ahead of the pitcher batter with his batting approach. That's why I bat Weeks 8. When you have potentially a top 3 in all of Baseball Batting lineup and you're good 1-8, Somebody will be batting lower in the lineup than you'd expect. And at this point I'm stuck with Gomez at 7,Lucroy 5/6 guaranteed. Leaves either Hart/Weeks to flip the other 5/6 and the loser bats 8th.

[Ennder]

Yeah I'll be happy if Segura keeps an 8% BB rate. I expect it to be more like 5% or 6% though. His BB rate is a pretty big key towards his value though. Also if I had to pick the absolute best person to lead off for a team it would be a high OBP and high K rate since that is the spot in the order where K% matters the absolute least. Old Weeks had too much power to lead off but he didn't K too much for it.

[1992casey]

I don't think you can have too much power to lead off, provided that the power spots in the lineup are taken by good power hitters.

[Baldkin]

Weeks never belonged atop the batting order but was put their due to what the team had as hitters. Weeks' Walk rate at least defends him for being 1st in the lineup. But his BA/and K% justifies him to bat lower.

 

If you're talking ideal lineups, go peek at the book.

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by

[logan82]

BA and K% are terrible ways to measure a hitter. K rate is already taken into account in OBP, wOBA and OPS. K rate and BA by themselves are practically useless.

[Nottso]

If you're talking ideal lineups, go peek at the book.

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by

 

That was a great read.

[brewcrewdue80]

Things getting lost in my translation. Simply put: A HR hitter does so with 1 power but 2 hitting fly balls that carry over the fence. Fly balls that don't go over the fence are outs 90% of Weeks other results for his career. With that in mind with a 25% K rate and around 34% flyball rate you're looking at 49% automatic outs in PAs when figuring the HRs and flyballs that result in hits.

 

Segura last season had 15% K rate, 13% flyball rate and his flyballs also netted a 90% out rate. But in the end that means Segura is at only a 27% automatic out in PAs

This is why I'm biased to a low K% guy with speed and Line drive/Ground ball ratio vs. Fly ball atop the order than a guy who has a higher K rate and a higher Flyball rate than line drive/ground ball ratio.

In the end Segura will surpass Weeks in BA because the BABIP is much higher on Line drives and ground balls over fly balls and Segura puts more Balls in play via not striking out.

[Baldkin]

Things getting lost in my translation. Simply put: A HR hitter does so with 1 power but 2 hitting fly balls that carry over the fence. Fly balls that don't go over the fence are outs 90% of Weeks other results for his career. With that in mind with a 25% K rate and around 34% flyball rate you're looking at 49% automatic outs in PAs when figuring the HRs and flyballs that result in hits.

 

Segura last season had 15% K rate, 13% flyball rate and his flyballs also netted a 90% out rate. But in the end that means Segura is at only a 27% automatic out in PAs

This is why I'm biased to a low K% guy with speed and Line drive/Ground ball ratio vs. Fly ball atop the order than a guy who has a higher K rate and a higher Flyball rate than line drive/ground ball ratio.

In the end Segura will surpass Weeks in BA because the BABIP is much higher on Line drives and ground balls over fly balls and Segura puts more Balls in play via not striking out.

 

Actually, ground balls get turned into outs at a much higher rate than fly balls do. Your numbers, are, well, just completely wrong.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/groundballs-and-you/

The results were that the average ground ball generated 0.04 runs and caused 0.80 outs while the average ball in air generated 0.23 runs and caused just 0.62 outs. On a runs-per-out basis, balls hit into the air created almost 7.5 times as much offense as balls kept on the ground did.

[brewcrewdue80]

That article takes Line Drives in the same grouping of fly balls. Line drives are going to be the majority of successful batting numbers. I guess I need to clarify I am looking at hit trajectories in my rate noted above. When hitting a ground ball Weeks has a career .302BA on them. When he hits Line Drives he has a .707BA and his Fly Balls result in .217BA. In that regard, what I'm stating isn't wrong. Now, I said he gets an out 90% of the time he hits a fly ball that doesn't result in a HR. That is why he bats .217 when hitting Fly Balls. But if the Ball is in play it is an out 90% of the time.

[Ennder]

Yes Segura will hit for a higher AVG but if he only gets a BB half as often it won't matter, he can't hope to be as good a hitter. So much of his offensive value is going to rest on what that BB rate is for him. If he can get it up to 8 or 9% and keep it there we have a somewhat valuable guy, I just fear it is going to be more like 5% in which case he just isn't going to add much offense unless he adds some power. I think the key point to this argument is assuming you hold all things steady including SLG a guy who hits .220 with a .330 OBP is just as valuable as a guy who hits .300 with a .330 OBP. The AVG itself doesn't add anything at all assuming you hold all other things steady between the players. Obviously it isn't realistic for everything else to be the same but if somehow it was AVG in a complete vacuum has no value.

[joepepsi]

If you're talking ideal lineups, go peek at the book.

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by

 

That was a great read.

Right that. So according to the article and based on 2012 stats, the best lineup is probably this:

Aoki

Braun

Weeks

Ramirez

Hart

Gomez

Segura

Lucroy