Impressions of Jean Segura

[502 to Right]

So Jean Segura has been up nearly a month. What are your impressions? As of this writing he has an OPS+ of 32, OBP of .250 and SLG of .239. Not good. That said, he's really young and MLB history is chock full of good to great players who really stunk it up in their first few months of play.

 

How comfortable are you going into 2013 with Segura starting at SS?

 

Personally, I'd like to see Alex Gonzalez back on a 1 year deal and have Segura start 2013 in AAA to get more experience and, hopefully, confidence.

[Thurston Fluff]

Personally I think he is a year away. It wouldn't bother me at all to have a stopgap player next season until he is actually ready for the majors. That could very easily be sometime next season or it could be a whole year but why have him up if he isn't actually ready?

[JohnBriggs12]

No need to go out and buy a veteran stopgap. They have the stopgap already here and its Bianchi. Bianchi is more advanced as a hitter and likely to put up decent numbers, something like .260/.325/.375.

[jerichoholicninja]

Wasn't the word on Jean that his bat was ready but his glove wasn't? It's been the opposite from what I've seen.

[paul253]

Yeah I thought it was a mistake to bring Segura up. I almost think it was to help justify the Greinke trade to some of the casual fans. Kind of a "see we got major league ready talent back". I think he should have been placed in Nashville immediately after the trade and should have stayed there until either the season ended or he hit well enough to be moved up.

 

From what I've seen of him it seems a little bit like his is in over his head at the plate. He's not hitting the ball hard at all. I like his hustle but he's hit a lot of weak little ground balls. He doesn't strike out much, which is good, but one extra base hit and three non-intentional walks in 70 at bats is not good at all.

[BrewCrewForever]

He has shown flashes, but I think he needs at least half of 2013 at AAA. Maybe even the whole year. I would be fine going into next season with Bianchi starting at SS until they feel Segura is 100% ready.

[NYChez]

There is less pressure to pay for a one-year replacement since the other 7 spots in the lineup next year will have potentially above-average offensive production. As long as Segura fields well, I think they'll continue to play him into next season.

 

Also, there have been many highly successful shortstops that have struggled offensively in their early years while playing every day in the majors. The early struggles don't appear to put their development in jeopardy.

[markedman5]

I'd go with Gonzalez for a year and let Segura play at Triple A.

 

Gonzalez wouldn't cost much.

[nate82]

I don't believe he needs to be in AAA next year. That is just a waste of time for Segura. The competition in AAA is rather weak and he really doesn't have all that much to prove in the minors anymore. It would be a detriment to him improving if he is placed in AAA next year. I would rather see Segura in the majors next year where he will facing a higher level of competition otherwise the Brewers should just put him in AA as the talent level there is a lot higher than in AAA.

[endaround]

I don't believe he needs to be in AAA next year. That is just a waste of time for Segura. The competition in AAA is rather weak and he really doesn't have all that much to prove in the minors anymore. It would be a detriment to him improving if he is placed in AAA next year. I would rather see Segura in the majors next year where he will facing a higher level of competition otherwise the Brewers should just put him in AA as the talent level there is a lot higher than in AAA.

 

No it isn't. The talent level in AAA is higher than AA. Yes there are more prospects in AA but that is because AAA also has MLB fringe players while AA doesn't and AA is where prospects loose their prospect status.

[nate82]

I don't believe he needs to be in AAA next year. That is just a waste of time for Segura. The competition in AAA is rather weak and he really doesn't have all that much to prove in the minors anymore. It would be a detriment to him improving if he is placed in AAA next year. I would rather see Segura in the majors next year where he will facing a higher level of competition otherwise the Brewers should just put him in AA as the talent level there is a lot higher than in AAA.

 

No it isn't. The talent level in AAA is higher than AA. Yes there are more prospects in AA but that is because AAA also has MLB fringe players while AA doesn't and AA is where prospects loose their prospect status.

 

The talent level in AAA is not higher than it is at AA. I'm sorry but the Jeff Suppans and others like him bring the talent level of AAA down by a lot there are also players who are just roster space for the team that they are on. There are more Suppan like players in AAA than there are in AA. The talent level at AAA is not even all that good most teams just stash veterans down there like Corey Patterson. I just can not see how AAA has a higher talent level than AA. Plus Segura doesn't have anything to prove he should be in the majors not in AA or AAA next year.

[Baldkin]

So, why are 85% of players called up to MLB from AAA then?

Why are 85% of players called up in Sept when rosters expanded from AAA?

 

More potential does not equal more talent.

[RockCoCougars]

Segura probably shouldn't have been called up until today... and he has looked a tad over his head, but I'm not going to squawk about it too much since he's been playing quite a bit.

 

There are more Suppan like players in AAA than there are in AA.

 

Right, at the same time, there are more Eric Arnett and Christian Guerrero like players in AA than AAA.

[502 to Right]

I have no problem with bringing up Segura this year. I think there's a lot of value in getting his feet wet and learning what MLB pitching is all about. It was a lost season when they brought him up so no harm there. But what we've found is that Segura is not MLB ready right now. Let him learn from it and start 2013 in AAA and be better for it.

 

I'd rather have Gonzalez than Bianchi though. I'm not ready to write off 2013.

[CheezWizHed]

There are more Suppan like players in AAA than there are in AA.

 

That is because those Suppan-like players are better than the AA players. Just because a player isn't good enough be a MLBer (Patterson) doesn't mean they are worse than a AA player. Most of them couldn't make the MLB (or AAA) club either.

[TheCrew07]

The talent level in AAA is not higher than it is at AA. I'm sorry but the Jeff Suppans and others like him bring the talent level of AAA down by a lot there are also players who are just roster space for the team that they are on. There are more Suppan like players in AAA than there are in AA. The talent level at AAA is not even all that good most teams just stash veterans down there like Corey Patterson. I just can not see how AAA has a higher talent level than AA. Plus Segura doesn't have anything to prove he should be in the majors not in AA or AAA next year.

 

You keep saying this but it isn't true.

 

AAA has a ton of professional hitters who have spent time in MLB, AA is half full of players that will never reach MLB. The jump for pitchers going from AA to AAA is significant exactly because of the reason you mentioned, players like Corey Patterson sitting on AAA rosters. A quick list of some of the best pitching prospects in the game who faltered the first half of the year in AAA... Perez, Miller, Montgomery, and Teheran... and our own Wily Peralta struggled for half the season. Hultzen recently got promoted and hasn't set the world on fire in AAA either.

 

The pitching is much different from AA to AAA because your typical AAA pitcher is going to be someone with a big arm who can't locate, or someone without great stuff who's just a good pitcher. AA has more of a power arsenal from the pitching perspective all the way around and many of those guys will spend 3/4 to a full season in AA. If those same arms are successful in AAA out of the gate they don't last there very long and move to MLB very quickly (Bauer and Skaggs). Some of those guys will end up coming back down to AAA for more seasoning, but it's pretty rare that a AAA rotation is loaded with prospects.

 

Look at our Nashville team from a positional perspective, none of those guys are going to scare MLB pitching but many prospects coming up have never faced so many good hitters from top to bottom, these are all guys who batted at the top of the order as they were coming through their systems. Some pitchers will breeze right through to MLB, others are going to learn some hard lessons.

 

Every interview with a prospect pitcher that I've read through this year on MiLB.com talked about how they were somewhat surprised how difficult the jump in talent was moving to AAA, and I've linked a good 1/3 of those articles in Link Report over the course of the season. Hitters on the hand don't seem to share that perspective.

 

Once hitters solve the crafty soft tossers in AAA, there's pretty much left nothing left for them to do but move up.

 

How many fastballs are being thrown past Segura? I've only watched parts of 3 games since he came up but it didn't look like he was having a problem catching up to fastballs, it looked to me like he was struggling with pitch recognition and selection. As I posted previously I think he's up about 3 months too fast, but as long as he sticks with it and doesn't lose confidence he'll figure out, there's no reason to drop him to AAA for an entire year. If he's still struggling at the all-star break next season then they'll probably have to make a move, but I have no problem riding him out.

 

Be patient with the young man and let him get his feet on solid ground, there's no reason to rush to hasty judgement on any young player. We don't need to know today what a guy is, people have consistently done that with prospects that fall on either side of the fence. Escobar was garbage, Gamel is garbage, Fiers is a top of the rotation starter, Parra is crap, McGehee is a stud, Weeks is a bust, etc, etc.... Why is it necessary to start tossing labels around on young players so quickly? Escobar and Weeks turned out to be pretty decent, Parra isn't worth much, nor is McGehee, and the jury is still out on the rest of my examples.

[nate82]

 

You keep saying this but it isn't true.

 

 

 

 

Be patient with the young man and let him get his feet on solid ground, there's no reason to rush to hasty judgement on any young player. We don't need to know today what a guy is, people have consistently done that with prospects that fall on either side of the fence. Escobar was garbage, Gamel is garbage, Fiers is a top of the rotation starter, Parra is crap, McGehee is a stud, Weeks is a bust, etc, etc.... Why is it necessary to start tossing labels around on young players so quickly? Escobar and Weeks turned out to be pretty decent, Parra isn't worth much, nor is McGehee, and the jury is still out on the rest of my examples.

 

Not really trying to state is a fact just my opinion of AAA. It maybe right it maybe wrong but it is just my opinion. Sorry if it is coming off as I am stating this as a fact as that is not my intention.

 

Oh I am being patient with him but I feel as though his path to get better is playing everyday with the Brewers and not in AAA. I just feel that he is going to see better talent with the Brewers and it really is detriment to him progressing as a player by playing in AAA next as in my opinion the talent in AAA is just not that good. I don't believe its any harder for a player to jump from AA to the majors than it is to go from AAA to the majors. The talent gap is not that much as the veterans like Suppan and Patterson bring the talent level really far down in AAA again this is my opinion.

[brettac1]

Pretty fast, not terrible on defense, bat isn't ready yet.

[LouisEly]

Back to the SS discussion, according to this site Gonzalez is signed for 2013 at $4M and not a team option. So it looks like the discussion is about who the other SS is going to be. Notice how I say "other" because I don't know that Gonzalez will be the starter or how he comes back from injury. If I were a betting man, I'd say Bianchi is the other SS on the roster and Segura starts the year in AAA as Bianchi is probably better suited for a part-time role and Segura needing to play everyday.

[RockCoCougars]

Gonzalez had a vesting option, that won't vest. He most likely won't be back, and if he is, it will be at a substantial discount.

[logan82]

Gonzalez had an option that would vest based on PA. He did not reach the minimum PA so he should be a FA next year.

[WIsports4life]

Segura's stats this far haven't been too impressive. I agree that his D has been the bright spot thus far, but you have to remember not to far back a player by the name of Jonathan Lucroy was called up from AA and his numbers weren't the greatest either. FWIW the Brewers are 16-9 since Segura was called up, granted the crew has been known as a good August team.

[BrewerTerp]

Too small of a sample size to make any real judgment.

[502 to Right]

Too small of a sample size to make any real judgment.

 

 

Well the Brewers have a judgment to make for 2013, small sample size or not.

 

And the thread is called "Impressions of Jean Segura" not "Do you think Jean Segura is going to be a great player in the future or will he be a sucky disappointment?"

[adambr2]

Too small of a sample size to make any real judgment.

 

 

Well the Brewers have a judgment to make for 2013, small sample size or not.

 

And the thread is called "Impressions of Jean Segura" not "Do you think Jean Segura is going to be a great player in the future or will he be a sucky disappointment?"

 

I think all he was saying is that it's hard to get an impression of Jean Segura based on one month of MLB at-bats. The Brewers, as you mentioned, will have to make a judgment for 2013. I would be fine with bringing Gonzalez back for another year if his ACL is fully healed, and starting Segura in AAA. I wouldn't feel like Bianchi is enough of an upgrade over Segura next year to go with him. If we're not going to pursue a SS in free agency, I'd rather just go with Segura and live with the growing pains.