Marcum on Waivers

[monty57]

Marcum is a good player. I'd have no problem trading someone like Veras for nothing just to free the salary. I don't find sense in giving another team a good player just to save money (and I'm the guy who constantly harps on how important finances and financial flexibility are).

 

If teams grow to expect good players to be given away in August, they will cease to offer talent in trade in July. If the Dodgers want to limit their chances of watching the playoffs on TV, they will give up something of value (prospect) in return for something of value (Marcum).

 

Rios was let go by the Blue Jays because the White Sox were dumb enough to place a claim. The Cubs would let Soriano go to anyone dumb enough to place a claim. While saving $1MM is nice, Marcum's contract is not the type that would cause a team to just give up without getting something back in return.

[jerichoholicninja]

Marcum wasn't healthy is July. That's why he wasn't traded.

 

A 200 innings Marcum is worth a qualifying offer. However, the 150 innings or less version you are likely to get isn't. The Brewers can't risk signing him for next year or long term so they might as well trade him for whatever they can get now.

[logan82]

Oh my gosh, the Twins are shopping Joe Mauer.

 

The fact is that big-name, big-money guys such as Mauer land on trade waivers in August all the time. Most players in the majors are run through the wire after the July 31 deadline for making non-waiver trades. This is usually not a sign of a team's desire to get rid of an expensive star but more of a procedural move to gauge potential interest in case a legitimate trade offer were to come about.

or not.

[trwi7]

Letting a veteran like Marcum have the opportunity to get to the postseason also creates some goodwill, and other potential FA take notice of stuff like that.

 

I really doubt potential free agents care or even pay attention to it.

 

Could you imagine a free agent saying. "Wow, they traded Shaun Marcum in August when they were out of the race to a playoff contender so he would have a chance to play in the postseason. How nice of them. I'm strongly considering signing with them because of that."

[nate82]

Letting a veteran like Marcum have the opportunity to get to the postseason also creates some goodwill, and other potential FA take notice of stuff like that.

 

I really doubt potential free agents care or even pay attention to it.

 

Could you imagine a free agent saying. "Wow, they traded Shaun Marcum in August when they were out of the race to a playoff contender so he would have a chance to play in the postseason. How nice of them. I'm strongly considering signing with them because of that."

 

Probably not but I think what Boston did has more of an impact than something like that. Negatives always carry farther than anything positive.

[adambr2]

Oh my gosh, the Twins are shopping Joe Mauer.

 

The fact is that big-name, big-money guys such as Mauer land on trade waivers in August all the time. Most players in the majors are run through the wire after the July 31 deadline for making non-waiver trades. This is usually not a sign of a team's desire to get rid of an expensive star but more of a procedural move to gauge potential interest in case a legitimate trade offer were to come about.

or not.

 

Well, yes and no. Mauer is a $15M a year type player making $23M a year for the next 6 years into his mid-30's, for a small market club. I would have to think if someone wanted to pick that contract up, the Twins would pack his bags for him.

[xisxisxis]

Mauer is a $15M a year type player making $23M a year for the next 6 years into his mid-30's, for a small market club.

 

Minneapolis-St.Paul is not a small market. ownership stinginess <> small market.

[Oldcity]

While I normally agree that players being put on waivers is not a big deal, Marcum was one of the very few who was leaked. This leads me to believe there is expected to be interest in him. There does seem to be some smoke here in my opinion.

[adambr2]

Mauer is a $15M a year type player making $23M a year for the next 6 years into his mid-30's, for a small market club.

 

Minneapolis-St.Paul is not a small market. ownership stinginess <> small market.

 

It is the 20th size market out of 30 teams. Its not KC but its much closer to being a small market than a large one.

[Katuluu]

The Twin Cities are the 16th largest metro area in the country.

[endaround]

Mauer is a $15M a year type player making $23M a year for the next 6 years into his mid-30's, for a small market club.

 

Minneapolis-St.Paul is not a small market. ownership stinginess <> small market.

 

It is the 20th size market out of 30 teams. Its not KC but its much closer to being a small market than a large one.

 

Based on what? They are 15th in TV market and 5 of the top 10 are split between 2 teams.

[adambr2]

They are the 16th largest market but because some cities have more than 1 team, they're 20th out of 30 overall. The average metro size for an MLB team is around 5M and the Twin Cities is somewhere between 3-4M.

 

It also depends on how you define market size. Is it just population? Area? Does average attendance/television viewing area come into consideration? Milwaukee isn't a large market, but the Brewers are really just as much Wisconsin's team, and certainly a large base of the viewing audience comes from outside Milwaukee.

 

This is probably a subjective argument anyway, I just certainly don't consider the Twins to be anything more than mid/small market.

[trwi7]

But if you're going by markets that have more than one team you're basically saying that Oakland is a bigger market than the Twin Cities and that obviously isn't true.

[TheCrew07]

Mauer is a $15M a year type player making $23M a year for the next 6 years into his mid-30's, for a small market club.

 

Minneapolis-St.Paul is not a small market. ownership stinginess <> small market.

 

Having gone to school at the U and living there until I could get the hell out, that's the most bandwagon fan base I've ever unfortunately been a part of. The Vikings are either going to the super bowl or nobody cares... the Twins are going to the world series or nobody cares... it's ridiculous, it's not just an ownership issue. In 5 years there I can honestly say that I never met a diehard Timber Wolves fan, which is odd now that I'm thinking about it. The Stars had just relocated to Dallas when I moved over there and the Wild came after I left, so I can't really speak to hockey. The only team that has a legitimate fan base is Gopher hockey (which I would highly recommend, Mariucci is a great hockey venue), but even that might have changed as I haven't lived in the cities since 1998.

 

Also, they've always stretched the "metro" area all the way south to Hastings, which seems a bit disingenuous if you've ever driven between Rosemount and Hastings. There's an awful lot of rural farm land for a "metro".

[1992casey]

Nielsen TV markets are used to rank sports market sizes. In 2011, the Twin Cities were 15th.

 

[nospoiler=2011 Designated Market Areas][pre]2011 Rank Designated Market Area (DMA) Number of TV Households

1 New York 7,387,810

2 Los Angeles 5,569,780

3 Chicago 3,493,480

4 Philadelphia 2,993,370

5 Dallas-Ft. Worth 2,571,310

6 San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose 2,506,510

7 Boston (Manchester) 2,379,690

8 Washington, DC 2,360,180

9 Atlanta 2,292,640

10 Houston 2,185,260

11 Detroit 1,842,650

12 Seattle-Tacoma 1,811,420

13 Phoenix 1,811,330

14 Tampa-St. Petersburg 1,788,240

15 Minneapolis-St.Paul 1,721,940

16 Miami-Ft.Lauderdale 1,583,800

17 Denver 1,548,570

18 Cleveland-Akron 1,514,170

19 Orlando-Daytona Beach 1,465,460

20 Sacramento-Stockton-Modesto 1,388,570

21 St.Louis 1,253,920

22 Portland, OR 1,190,010

23 Pittsburgh 1,171,490

24 Raleigh-Durham 1,143,420

25 Charlotte 1,140,900

26 Indianapolis 1,109,970

27 Baltimore 1,097,310

28 San Diego 1,077,600

29 Nashville 1,024,560

30 Hartford-New Haven 1,006,280

31 Kansas City 939,740

32 Columbus, OH 932,680

33 Salt Lake City 927,540

34 Milwaukee 907,660

35 Cincinnati 896,090

36 San Antonio 880,690

37 Greenville-Asheville 860,930

38 West Palm Beach 788,020

39 Birmingham 738,790

40 Las Vegas 737,300[/pre][/nospoiler]

[thebruce44]

They are the 16th largest market but because some cities have more than 1 team, they're 20th out of 30 overall. The average metro size for an MLB team is around 5M and the Twin Cities is somewhere between 3-4M.

 

It also depends on how you define market size. Is it just population? Area? Does average attendance/television viewing area come into consideration? Milwaukee isn't a large market, but the Brewers are really just as much Wisconsin's team, and certainly a large base of the viewing audience comes from outside Milwaukee.

 

This is probably a subjective argument anyway, I just certainly don't consider the Twins to be anything more than mid/small market.

 

Huh? Larger cities being divided up moves them higher on the list, not lower.

 

And its better than 16th because they have no competing team to the west of them. Correct me if I'm wrong, but their TV deal has them broadcast in the Dakotas. I'd have to guess, all things considered, they are in the top 10.

[monty57]

This article from the Brewers' own site sure makes it sound like there's a good chance Marcum will be traded:

 

http://milwaukee.brewers.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120829&content_id=37556608&notebook_id=37556722&vkey=notebook_mil&c_id=mil

 

Roenicke's even practically begging a contender to trade for him, which is kind of odd.

 

"I don't know how many teams there are in contention, and I know that Shaun is better than a lot of their fourth and fifth starters," Roenicke said. "I know that. I look at it, if I was on another team, like we were last year, and we needed a fourth or fifth starter, and I saw Shaun Marcum out there, I know exactly what I would tell Doug."

[trwi7]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but their TV deal has them broadcast in the Dakotas. I'd have to guess, all things considered, they are in the top 10.

 

More than that. The Eastern Dakotas, Northern Iowa, Western Wisconsin and the UP of Michigan. Granted there isn't a ton of population in the Dakotas and the UP.

[JohnBriggs12]

The Madison (85th) and Green Bay-Appleton (69th) television markets both rank much higher than any secondary markets in Minnesota and the Dakotas. If you add Madison and Green Bay to Milwaukee it about equals Minneapolis/St. Paul alone.

[trwi7]

Even if you add the Madison and Green Bay-Appleton markets to Milwaukee, it barely beats the Twin Cities by less than 10,000 households.

[Invader3K]

Deadline for claiming Marcum is late this morning, right? So I assume he still makes his start today.

[torts]

Billingsley hit the DL, would be surprised if the Dodgers dont try to get Marcum

[Thurston Fluff]

A 200 innings Marcum is worth a qualifying offer. However, the 150 innings or less version you are likely to get isn't. The Brewers can't risk signing him for next year or long term so they might as well trade him for whatever they can get now.

 

How are you arriving at him being likely to only give 150 innings? He had 195 in 2010 and 2000 in 2011. Granted he is an injury risk but so is every pitcher so why would he be more likely to have injuries next year than he was going into this season?

[rluzinski]

I think there's no question that a previous recent injury does increase the probability of a future injury. The question is, by how much? Also, even the most durable starting pitchers are not going to project to have 220+ inings. Sabathia had averaged 234 IP the previous 3 years and still "only" had a ZiPS projected IP of 218.

 

I'd like to think you could pencil Marcum in for 175 IP for 2013 but perhaps 150 IS more reasonable. I really don't know.

[Thurston Fluff]

Which is why I wanted to know what the reasoning for saying he probably is going to give us 150 innings. I didn't know it that comment was based of of some sort of projection or if it was just personal opinion.