BOS / LAD megatrade

[monty57]

The problem wasn't the amount of money they spent, it was that it was spent foolishly.

 

Overspending for the "top guy" is overspending for the "top guy," whether that "top guy" is Greinke, Gonzalez, Crawford or anyone. Sometimes it pays off, oftentimes it doesn't. How often do you see top paid guys traded for a bunch of talent relative to the number of top paid guys traded in salary dumps? It could be argued that whoever "wins" a free agent bidding war is always overspending, because they spent more than anyone else was willing to spend. Therefore, "winning" any free agent could be dubbed "foolish." Teams all over baseball have someone on their roster they'd love to get rid of, but no one will take him. Of course teams are going to need to occasionally delve into free agency, but it can't be the way a large portion of any team is put together. Not in Boston and certainly not in Milwaukee.

 

Beckett and Crawford were way overpaid and vastly underperformed.

 

And who's to say whether Greinke (or anyone) would be worth the $23MM/year we apparently were going to pay him? What would the Brewers look like if Greinke had nagging injuries that only allowed him to start 10-15 games / year over the next five years? Crawford and Beckett were expected to perform to a certain level, and have not. That happens all the time. The risk is just much greater when you commit huge money to someone over an extended period.

 

The Brewers breaking the bank for Greinke is no where close to the same situation as what the Red Sox are in right now.

 

Had the Brewers signed Greinke to somehting like $23MM/year, they very easily could have found themselves in a similar situation to Boston in a couple of years, when Ramirez is owed $20MM, Braun and Gallardo are both making more, etc. That would have been compounded further with a Hart extension. Boston has the money to afford those contracts, they're just trying to get below the luxury tax threshhold. The Brewers could have gotten themselves into a situation where they didn't have the money to afford the contracts, which is far, far worse.

 

I'm sure that when Boston "broke the bank" to extend Gonzalez, and "broke the bank" to sign Crawford, they didn't envision it ending up with the trade we just saw between Boston and the Dodgers. I'm sure they thought they were being smart. Boston was expected to be the best team in baseball when they signed those deals. The Brewers were hoping to remain a good team with a playoff shot. I'd argue that they at the time of the signing, the likelihood of Greinke hurting the Brewers financially would have been higher than the liklihood that the Crawford/Gonzalez deals were of hurting the Red Sox. We know how Boston turned out, we will probably never know how Milwaukee would've turned out if they had extended Greinke, but there was a lot of risk in offering the extension. I'm happy with Segura, Hellwig, Pena and financial flexibility.

[Funketown]

If I remember correctly the Crawford deal was pretty widely criticized as an overpay, as was the Lackey deal. I think the Beckett deal was viewed as a moderate overpay and the AGon deal a pretty good contract for both sides.

[fondybrewfan]

Beckett is an OK pickup at the price they have him for through 2013. Punto doesn't count.

 

So they essentially traded a couple good prospects and need to hope that Gonzalez is worth over $200 Million over the next 6 years because Crawford is awfully close to a sunk cost. Gonzalez will be 36 by the time his deal is done; this is certain to end badly for LAD.

 

If they want to add $260 Million in payroll sure go ahead; but I think they could have made better use of that money. Its even worse that they had to give of prospects in the deal. Maybe they are the new Yankees and normal rules don't apply I just don't think they can keep this up for an extended period of time.

[Baldkin]

Jonah Keri chimes in.... basically says the Dodgers are the new Yankees and haven't even scratched the surface...

 

"The value of this franchise is represented in the price we paid — that doesn't go up or down with one or two players' salaries," said Mark Walter, the Dodgers' principal owner and chairman. Walter was then asked if the Dodgers have a spending ceiling. "Somewhere, I suppose," came his oblique reply. Then, the coup de grace. Someone asked Dodgers president and CEO Stan Kasten about the possibility of butting up against MLB's very punitive luxury tax. "Mark and Magic don't even ask me about that," he said of his bosses' instructions, or lack thereof.

[monty57]

From NBC:

 

About Mark Walter

 

Walter is chief executive officer of Guggenheim Partners, a financial services firm that deals with investments and securities among other services. The company manages about $125 billion in assets, suggesting he'll be the one signing the checks.

 

He may want to show the LA public that he's as flippant as they are, but I'd bet he knows to the exact penny what their ceiling is. Maybe he is one of those owners who will treat the team like a toy and not care if it bleeds cash, but it would seem odd to me that someone who has made a very good living by valuating investments would not have a pretty detailed account of the team's finances.

[chad25]

I view this as a great trade for both sides.

 

Dodgers gave up a rental 1B, 2 backups, bullpen guy and 1 good prospect to get an elite 1B, a frontline starter, and a top of the order bat. Gonzalez will return to form playing in L.A., Beckett's ERA will go down pitching in the NL west, and Crawford will return to form next year because their will be less pressure on him to produce playing in a lineup that includes Ramirez, Kemp, Ethier, and Gonzalez. Money isnt an option to them so go for it.

 

Red Sox dumped a ton of salary so they can start fresh in the post Epstein era. Young cheap backups, a bullpen arm, and an advanced minors pitcher. Still have Pedroia, Ellsbury, Buchholz and Lester. Pedro Ciriaco and Mauro Gomez are young talents along with upper-level prospects Bentz, Bogaerts, and Webster. A core is there, just need to spend their newfound money wisely.

 

I dont see anything wrong with it.

[Raw Biz]

Gonzalez will return to form playing in L.A., Beckett's ERA will go down pitching in the NL west, and Crawford will return to form next year because their will be less pressure on him to produce playing in a lineup that includes Ramirez, Kemp, Ethier, and Gonzalez.

 

I dont see anything wrong with it.

 

I just want to warn you to be careful with how you state things. You are stating these things as if they are fact when they are actually your opinion. There is a very real possibility that Beckett's and Crawford's best days are behind them and they never return to form. It's hard to take people seriously when they state things like this so matter-of-factly. It seems like that has become a problem with a lot of posters recently, not just you.

[torts]

where do you think Crawford will hit in that lineup? I honestly feel like part of why he was so mediocre last year was that he was hitting at the bottom of the order instead of in that #2 spot he sat in in Tampa Bay. he hit better this year, in his limited 30 games, in the #2 spot... just my observation

[endaround]

Or Crawford was never really that good. He was suppsoed to be a super star but aside from his age 28 season he was a 120 or so wRC+ guy. So much more Corey Hart than Ryan Braun.

[RockCoCougars]

Or Crawford was never really that good. He was suppsoed to be a super star but aside from his age 28 season he was a 120 or so wRC+ guy. So much more Corey Hart than Ryan Braun.

But Crawford was always on the cover of all the fantasy baseball magazines, and perennially on top of all the cheat sheets....

[chad25]

Gonzalez will return to form playing in L.A., Beckett's ERA will go down pitching in the NL west, and Crawford will return to form next year because their will be less pressure on him to produce playing in a lineup that includes Ramirez, Kemp, Ethier, and Gonzalez.

 

I dont see anything wrong with it.

 

I just want to warn you to be careful with how you state things. You are stating these things as if they are fact when they are actually your opinion. There is a very real possibility that Beckett's and Crawford's best days are behind them and they never return to form. It's hard to take people seriously when they state things like this so matter-of-factly. It seems like that has become a problem with a lot of posters recently, not just you.

 

Yeah I understand that I'm stating things but I think people can understand that it's my conjectures, not actual fact. I don't see why stating things, which are opinions, makes it hard for you to take people seriously. But I will state things less adamently.

 

If I had to guess their lineup for next year, it would be...

1-Dee Gordon, 2B*

2-Carl Crawford, LF

3-Matt Kemp, CF

4-Adrian Gonzalez, 1B

5-Hanley Ramirez, SS*

6-Andre Ethier, RF

7-Luis Cruz, 3B*

8-A.J. Ellis, C

 

*I'm not sure which position he will play.

[trwi7]

I hope they have Dee Gordon batting leadoff. Spending all that money for the power hitters and yet nobody on base ahead of them.

[clancyphile]

where do you think Crawford will hit in that lineup? I honestly feel like part of why he was so mediocre last year was that he was hitting at the bottom of the order instead of in that #2 spot he sat in in Tampa Bay. he hit better this year, in his limited 30 games, in the #2 spot... just my observation

 

I think most sabermatricians would say that where a hitter hits doesn't really affect production. I did my own experiment, albeit very unscientific. In Baseball Mogul 2013, I pulled a trade in 1979 between the Brewers and A's that had Rickey Henderson (the A's took 3B Sal Bando). Since I already had Molitor, Yount, and Cooper at the top of my order, I put Henderson ninth, and he still did well (IIRC, 60-70 steals, a .375 or so OBP).

[Nottso]

Craig Calcaterra of HBT reports that LAD also inquired about Sabathia and Texeria. Ai yi yi!

 

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/08/28/the-dodgers-inquired-about-mark-teixeira-and-cc-sabathia/

[fondybrewfan]

They should inquire about Marcum

[MJLiverock]

Teams like the Dodgers, Red Sox, Yankees, etc. don't have to worry about things like is Gonzalez worth $22MM or $18MM or $16MM, they do need to be sure and put good players on the field, the money around the fringes really doesn't matter because they have so much of it and only so many places to spend it given when free agents are available and who is already on the team. The Dodgers took their chance to upgrade their offense tremendously this season, it wasn't going to do them any good to have $100MM to spend in free agency when you look at the pool of guys available.

In this trade they got the piece they wanted in Gonzalez, his salary is what it is, they pay it and don't care about value since they basically gotta spend it somewhere. Beckett, probably overpaid but again, they get an above average pitcher for a couple years and is better than just about anyone on the free agent market. In order to do it they have to suck it up and absorb the truly bad deal in Crawford but that was why they got it done for such little in the way of prospects. The Crawford deal will likely be bad but if he's over paid by $10MM a year they can deal with.

 

The interesting thing will be the Red Sox, they will have shed $88MM from payroll after this year by moving and free agents rolling off Gonzalez, Beckett, Crawford, Youk, Dice-K, Bobby Jenks, plus Ortiz is a free agent getting paid $14.75MM this year, so really $102MM rolling off. They may make another 1 year offer to Ortiz, Cody Ross is getting $3MM this year and is a free agent and having put up decent numbers may get a raise. Locking up Ellsbury longer may be an option for some of the money but they are going to have $75MM plus to spend with not much on the market. They could use bullpen help likely raising the competition for the Brewers on any bullpen arms. They could also take the Dodgers route and try to trade to take on salary from other teams to bridge the gap to when some free agents they really want hit the market.

[danzig6767]

The most baffling aspect to this trade for me is why the Dodgers added three pretty good to decent prospects in the trade?

 

Was Boston really going to pass on dumping those three contracts, especially Crawford without getting the prospects included? I have a hard time believing that.

[Funketown]

Right, and it's not like there could have been a bidding war. If the Red Sox had sent those three to the Dodgers for nothing and chipped in ~$50MM or so, it still might have been a good deal for the Red Sox.

[rluzinski]

The Dodgers may have more money than most teams but it's still finite. Even if they had wads of money to blow, I find it difficult to believe that this is the best they could do with it.

 

Some discussion at insidethebook.com:

 

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/what_does_250mm_buy_you/#comments