Dodgers attempting to acquire most of the Red Sox

[homer]

Apparently this is a done deal per Twitter.

[HiAndTight]

On the one hand, giving up on A-Gon so early seems kind of dumb. On the other hand, I would despite this trade if I were a Dodgers fan. Team has a huge pool of money to spend this off season but ownership just committed it all to a bunch of overpaid players in a salary dump.

 

Well the players the Dodgers are supposedly giving up are not all that great especially for what the Dodgers are getting. Even with the salaries that are involved with this move if all of the players truly are involved it seems like the Red Sox are getting a rather bad deal.

 

As for free agency after this season who exactly would be better than Adrian Gonzalez and Crawford? Other than Josh Hamilton who would the Dodgers be interested in? Beckett and Punto there would be better options but the Dodgers really don't need another starter really and Punto is only going to cost $1.5m which is fine for a utility player. I would rather have Crawford and Gonzalez over Hamilton.

 

 

Anyone is better than Carl Crawford. I'm guessing the Red Sox said if you want Gonzalez, you HAVE to take Crawford. He's getting paid 20+ million a year, and he won't play likely until the end of next year after TJ surgery.

 

The Dodgers could have gone out and signed Josh Hamilton(A much better player than Agon) and played him with Kemp and Ethier to make the best OF trio in baseball by a LONG shot, and then signed Greinke to what seems to be a diminishing contract and been so much better off than having to give up your top prospects.

 

Hell, you could have then packaged your top propsects for Felix Hernandez or whatever. I don't know.

 

I just know giving Beckett 16 million over '13,'14, giving Crawford 21 million for the next 5 years when he has been injured constantly and to pay Gonzalez over 20 as well for another 5 years, you've really handcuffed yourself.

 

 

This is a deal that I love as a Brewers fan. Please Dodgers, Phillies and the rest of the big market teams in the NL, keep spending a ton of money so that you eventually bump up against that luxury tax. The way Bud sorta slid that in there so that it appeared it would only impact the Yankees was masterful.

 

And I question if the Red Sox would want to pay Greinke to pitch in Fenway, and equally important, if HE would want to pitch in Boston which I think is even more pressure packed than New York.

 

I see this deal as a deal that is going to completely handcuff the Dodgers in the future. They'll be good, but they'll also be in a very difficult position to do a whole lot. The big TV deal is great, but they still vastly overpaid for the team, didn't get the full parking rights, and will have a luxury tax to deal with.

 

Plus, have they re-signed Kershaw yet? That's going to be a MONSTER deal for probably a record for pitchers if he reaches Free Agency, and if it's signed in his final year of arbitration, it should at least match Hamel's deal. Kemp 8 years 160, they want to re-sign Ethier, Hanley for 16 or so for the next two years....

 

 

They've coined themselves(or their fans have), the Yankees of the West, but Yankees fans are a lot less fickle than Dodgers fans(and don't leave in the 7th because of traffic).

[nate82]

 

 

Anyone is better than Carl Crawford. I'm guessing the Red Sox said if you want Gonzalez, you HAVE to take Crawford. He's getting paid 20+ million a year, and he won't play likely until the end of next year after TJ surgery.

 

The Dodgers could have gone out and signed Josh Hamilton(A much better player than Agon) and played him with Kemp and Ethier to make the best OF trio in baseball by a LONG shot, and then signed Greinke to what seems to be a diminishing contract and been so much better off than having to give up your top prospects.

 

Hell, you could have then packaged your top propsects for Felix Hernandez or whatever. I don't know.

 

I just know giving Beckett 16 million over '13,'14, giving Crawford 21 million for the next 5 years when he has been injured constantly and to pay Gonzalez over 20 as well for another 5 years, you've really handcuffed yourself.

 

 

This is a deal that I love as a Brewers fan. Please Dodgers, Phillies and the rest of the big market teams in the NL, keep spending a ton of money so that you eventually bump up against that luxury tax. The way Bud sorta slid that in there so that it appeared it would only impact the Yankees was masterful.

 

And I question if the Red Sox would want to pay Greinke to pitch in Fenway, and equally important, if HE would want to pitch in Boston which I think is even more pressure packed than New York.

 

I see this deal as a deal that is going to completely handcuff the Dodgers in the future. They'll be good, but they'll also be in a very difficult position to do a whole lot. The big TV deal is great, but they still vastly overpaid for the team, didn't get the full parking rights, and will have a luxury tax to deal with.

 

Plus, have they re-signed Kershaw yet? That's going to be a MONSTER deal for probably a record for pitchers if he reaches Free Agency, and if it's signed in his final year of arbitration, it should at least match Hamel's deal. Kemp 8 years 160, they want to re-sign Ethier, Hanley for 16 or so for the next two years....

 

 

They've coined themselves(or their fans have), the Yankees of the West, but Yankees fans are a lot less fickle than Dodgers fans(and don't leave in the 7th because of traffic).

 

I will take Adrian Gonzalez over Hamilton. When was the last time Hamilton finished a year when he wasn't on the DL for some period of the season? No DH in the NL so Hamilton can't be played there as he looks to be rather fragile and I don't believe he will make a move to 1B to prolong his career.

 

Crawford will not be out for the whole year. If he was a pitcher yes but since he is not a pitcher the time frame for coming back from TJ surgery is 6-8 months for a position player. That would put him back at about the end of spring training or around the middle of the first month of the season.

 

The Red Sox are not really interested in Greinke. I don't think the Red Sox are done dealing here there maybe some more moves coming this off season. I wonder if the Red Sox will make Lester available. Lester is only signed through 13 with a team option for 14. Lester would make a good #1 for the Brewers to put ahead of Gallardo. If the Red Sox would take a deal headed by Khris Davis, Burgos, and a lower level prospect that would be perfect but I don't believe the Red Sox would do that.

[igor67]

As another analyst said Boston unloads a ton of money, but to what end? FA isn't loaded with premium talent and doesn't appear to be anytime soon. In which case they aren't any better off than Toronto.

[RU Rah Rah]

As another analyst said Boston unloads a ton of money, but to what end? FA isn't loaded with premium talent and doesn't appear to be anytime soon. In which case they aren't any better off than Toronto.

 

I feel weird in delighting in their overall collapse in the past year. I've always been a Yankee-hater and moderate BoSox fan (spent a half-dozen summers in western Mass., lived in southern NH for three years). But the whole franchise just seems to have become semi-loathsome, starting with the first WS title.

[HiAndTight]

On the one hand, giving up on A-Gon so early seems kind of dumb. On the other hand, I would despite this trade if I were a Dodgers fan. Team has a huge pool of money to spend this off season but ownership just committed it all to a bunch of overpaid players in a salary dump.

Wow, no kidding.

 

I think the Dodgers are going to be back in terrible shape in another two or three seasons, if it even takes that long. Ownership had to Make A Statement™... they're Committed To Winning™!

 

 

I can't see how they'll be under the luxury tax by 2013 when it kicks in at 189. As I've been saying, this will come into play more and more and more with teams as so many big market teams will be bumping up against this, and they may not be willing to give a Rafiel Soriano 28 million dollars a year(1 million per 1 million over the 189 million). Or a million other examples.

 

 

Just another team committing long term money to contracts that are inflated. I've said to those who think contracts are just going to keep rising, they're going to be the Hamilton type deals in which he gets 200-250 or whatever, but the other big FA's are going level off just as they have when you've had other clusters of big signings, and even more so with this luxury tax.

 

Big market teams will have to start worrying about the bottom line, while the smaller market teams will continue to increase revenue from revenue sharing, the TV/Internet rights...etc..etc....

 

Again, Selig is just amazing in how he's worked this for the long haul to try and do what he can to create some semblance of equity in the sport. It won't be the NFL or even the NBA, but it'll be a lot closer to the later than it has been when you have 210 million dollar payrolls for the Yankees(which would result in 21 million in revenue sharing, which is why they've said they're not likely to re-sign Swisher and have to make big decisions on Cano and Granderson....no longer can they hand them blank checks).

 

 

And the Dodgers will have Kershaw to pay, I imagine they'll give Ethier a at least a 7/100 type deal....and to me that's the best thing that could happen to the Brewers.

 

We're doing better and better in this tiny market. When Wendy sold this team we had a payroll of 28 million. Now it was pushing 110 this year BEFORE the 20 million additional TV from our own deal and the 10 from MLB(plus other revenue sources that have increased).

 

You'll see the Pirates, Royals, Brewers closing the gap significantly on the big market teams. We'll still lose out more times than not, but it won't just be a given.

 

Right now I see the LAA, LAD, NYY, Philly, Tex as 5 teams at least that will be looking at that luxury tax in another year or at LEAST won't be able to throw money around to spend on every player they want. Other teams like the Cubs, Red Sox, CHW, SF,NYM, Wash..among others will also have to contend with that as well in the future..maybe not the first year, but in coming years.

 

Please big market teams, continue to make TERRIBLE deals. The only thing that sucks is that the Red Sox where the team in this case that got out from under some of those contracts.

 

It may not keep the contracts of Strausburg, Harper, Trout down, but it'll keep the other type deals down a bit...IMO.

 

Which is part of the reason I've been so optimistic of the Brewers financial future for the last 2-3+ years.

[HiAndTight]

As another analyst said Boston unloads a ton of money, but to what end? FA isn't loaded with premium talent and doesn't appear to be anytime soon. In which case they aren't any better off than Toronto.

 

I feel weird in delighting in their overall collapse in the past year. I've always been a Yankee-hater and moderate BoSox fan (spent a half-dozen summers in western Mass., lived in southern NH for three years). But the whole franchise just seems to have become semi-loathsome, starting with the first WS title.

 

 

Same here. My greatest non-Brewer related experience was the 2004 ALCS just because I hated the Yankees.

 

There was a time when I actually rooted for the Cubs and the Red Sox('03). I can't believe I actually ever did that....

[HiAndTight]

As another analyst said Boston unloads a ton of money, but to what end? FA isn't loaded with premium talent and doesn't appear to be anytime soon. In which case they aren't any better off than Toronto.

 

 

Joey Hamilton, farm system, trade for a Shields type, sign Greinke, and hope Lester and company can come around, and perhaps a Nick Swisher.

 

Also re-sign Ellsbury.

 

If they have Hamtilton in RF, Ells in CF, Swisher at 1B

Rotation of Lester/Greinke/Shields/Buccholz/-they got two really good pitching prospects.

 

They still have some nice pieces. Salty is a nice catcher, Pedroia as well as others.

[TooLiveBrew]

I imagine they'll give Ethier a at least a 7/100 type deal...

Ethier was signed to a 5/$85M extension (2013-'17, club option for '18) this June. Did you mean you expect them to extend him to a 7/$100M deal after this current deal expires?

[Roderick]

 

Big market teams will have to start worrying about the bottom line, while the smaller market teams will continue to increase revenue from revenue sharing, the TV/Internet rights...etc..etc....

 

Again, Selig is just amazing in how he's worked this for the long haul to try and do what he can to create some semblance of equity in the sport. It won't be the NFL or even the NBA, but it'll be a lot closer to the later than it has been when you have 210 million dollar payrolls for the Yankees(which would result in 21 million in revenue sharing, which is why they've said they're not likely to re-sign Swisher and have to make big decisions on Cano and Granderson....no longer can they hand them blank checks).

 

We're doing better and better in this tiny market. When Wendy sold this team we had a payroll of 28 million. Now it was pushing 110 this year BEFORE the 20 million additional TV from our own deal and the 10 from MLB(plus other revenue sources that have increased).

 

You'll see the Pirates, Royals, Brewers closing the gap significantly on the big market teams. We'll still lose out more times than not, but it won't just be a given.

 

Right now I see the LAA, LAD, NYY, Philly, Tex as 5 teams at least that will be looking at that luxury tax in another year or at LEAST won't be able to throw money around to spend on every player they want. Other teams like the Cubs, Red Sox, CHW, SF,NYM, Wash..among others will also have to contend with that as well in the future..maybe not the first year, but in coming years.

I don't know how much the gap is closing. Yes, the Brewers triple their TV contract, which is an increase of $20M. But everyone's TV contract is going up and the Dodgers increase I'm sure is more than $20M. So how does that close the gap? If the big markets do hold their budget to the luxury tax, that just means those owners pull in that much more net profits or decide to put it into their minor league system, scouting, foreign player postings, etc.

[GamelToe]

TV contracts are definitely not a reason the gap is closing. The gap is widening because of TV contracts. And significantly.

[monty57]

If the big markets do hold their budget to the luxury tax, that just means those owners pull in that much more net profits or decide to put it into their minor league system, scouting, foreign player postings, etc.

 

Yep. The money is there, it's just a matter of whether the owners decide to spend above the cap or not. If they decide not to, they will pocket boatloads of cash. I'd guess that as soon as the Yankees miss the playoffs, their media and fans will dictate that they spend the extra money on the field rather than putting it in their pockets.

 

The luxury tax was a major win for Selig and I'm surprised he got it instituted. However, teams with the resources will go over it, and I would guess that it will rise as more and more big market teams reach the cap. If it doesn't have some sort of "inflation clause," then it would suppress team salaries over time. It wasn't that long ago the $100MM seemed unthinkable for a MLB team, and it won't be that long before most of them will be at $200MM. That's why I would be surprised if there isn't an "inflation clause" that will make sure the big market teams maintain some advantage.

[HiAndTight]

 

Big market teams will have to start worrying about the bottom line, while the smaller market teams will continue to increase revenue from revenue sharing, the TV/Internet rights...etc..etc....

 

Again, Selig is just amazing in how he's worked this for the long haul to try and do what he can to create some semblance of equity in the sport. It won't be the NFL or even the NBA, but it'll be a lot closer to the later than it has been when you have 210 million dollar payrolls for the Yankees(which would result in 21 million in revenue sharing, which is why they've said they're not likely to re-sign Swisher and have to make big decisions on Cano and Granderson....no longer can they hand them blank checks).

 

We're doing better and better in this tiny market. When Wendy sold this team we had a payroll of 28 million. Now it was pushing 110 this year BEFORE the 20 million additional TV from our own deal and the 10 from MLB(plus other revenue sources that have increased).

 

You'll see the Pirates, Royals, Brewers closing the gap significantly on the big market teams. We'll still lose out more times than not, but it won't just be a given.

 

Right now I see the LAA, LAD, NYY, Philly, Tex as 5 teams at least that will be looking at that luxury tax in another year or at LEAST won't be able to throw money around to spend on every player they want. Other teams like the Cubs, Red Sox, CHW, SF,NYM, Wash..among others will also have to contend with that as well in the future..maybe not the first year, but in coming years.

I don't know how much the gap is closing. Yes, the Brewers triple their TV contract, which is an increase of $20M. But everyone's TV contract is going up and the Dodgers increase I'm sure is more than $20M. So how does that close the gap? If the big markets do hold their budget to the luxury tax, that just means those owners pull in that much more net profits or decide to put it into their minor league system, scouting, foreign player postings, etc.

 

 

So you think that if a FA comes on the market and you have 6-7 of the big market teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, Rangers, Phillies..etc..etc..already up against the luxury tax, you don't think it'll play a role in how competitive a team like the Brewers can be when paying a player for them is dollar for dollar, but for those teams at the luxury tax is twice that? For example Greinke for the Brewers is 5 years and 100 million for example, but for the Yankees, a team already talking about having to make tough decisions on who to sign with Cano, Granderson and the prevailing thought that they'll let Swisher walk due to the luxury tax, it'd be 5 years an 200 million?

 

You don't think THAT closes the gap?

 

Plus the revenue sharing when it comes to online rights, playoff TV rights, a number that is expected to increase a GREAT deal bringing much more balanced revenue sharing in the next decade or so.

 

That is what I'm talking about when I say the gap is closing. I don't know how

anyone could argue it isn't when there is a luxury tax ready to be put in place, the Brewers had a payroll of nearly 110 this year, the Yankees are trying to cut costs to get under it, and the Brewers have the means now to increase their payroll, while the big market teams are going to be faced with either paying the luxury tax....which puts more money in our pockets, or not spending money.

 

A couple of teams are getting massive TV deals. Great. To look at that and miss the rest of the picture is short sighted GamelToe. So the Angels got a 3 billion dollar TV contract. So what? Aside from the fact that they've spent a great deal of that on Pujols and Wilson and are still just a couple games over .500, how does that change the situation we've been in for the last 20+ years when salaries started to inflate?

 

Now at least they can't spend whatever they want without penalty, there is revenue sharing, and that number continues to grow, and again, as I said, many expect the online rights and the playoff rights to blowup in the next decade.

 

 

As far as putting more money in the owners pockets, I couldn't care less about that, and Mark A has shown that's not his primary motive either(though he's certainly making a LOT of money on the growth of baseball after doubling the value of the Brewers and making more than 200 million in less than 10 years).

 

I care about when Free Agency comes around, the Brewers will be better positioned to sign players, keep their own players and the big market teams will be hamstrung by the luxury tax. I just don't see how you can look at the way baseball is trending and say that things are getting worse for small market teams when Selig has done several things to level the playing field as much as he possibly can short of actually implementing a hard cap which would likely mean we'd go about two years without seeing baseball as the players would almost certainly strike. Perhaps this though makes a cap plausible in the distant future.

 

And finally, with regard to how this is just going to lead the bigger market teams into having more money for scouting, international talent, etc..etc...that's really looking for a way to try and not see the obvious and significant benefits of everything that's happening, not to mention, there has been talk about an international draft.

 

 

I guess I just don't get the negative reaction. It's like some want to just throw their arms up and say, "baseball isn't fair." Yeah, we all get that, but it's getting a lot MORE fair. It's moving drastically in the right direction and things are getting significantly better than they where. In 2004 I believe we had a 28 million dollar payroll while the Yankees had a 185 million dollar payroll. Now we're over 100 million and almost certainly will be well over 100 million while the Yankees are scrambling to try and stay under 189.

 

 

 

There will ALWAYS be teams who will be able to spend more money than the Brewers. Even if that 189 million luxury tax threshold stayed in place for 25 years and the Brewers where up against it and even over it, there will always be teams who will be willing to spend more.

 

But everything done as of late sure as hell helps, and I don't see how people can argue that things are getting worse rather than unbelievably better in the last decade and as a result of Selig.

 

Look past the regional TV deals. There's a lot more going on than that.

 

 

Edit-When you mention we're tripling our TV deal and we're still only getting 20 million more, that number from what I know is about 24 million, but I was also talking about the additional 10 million we'll be getting from MLB, a number that I, again, expect to grow by leaps and bounds in the future.

[HiAndTight]

If the big markets do hold their budget to the luxury tax, that just means those owners pull in that much more net profits or decide to put it into their minor league system, scouting, foreign player postings, etc.

 

Yep. The money is there, it's just a matter of whether the owners decide to spend above the cap or not. If they decide not to, they will pocket boatloads of cash. I'd guess that as soon as the Yankees miss the playoffs, their media and fans will dictate that they spend the extra money on the field rather than putting it in their pockets.

 

The luxury tax was a major win for Selig and I'm surprised he got it instituted. However, teams with the resources will go over it, and I would guess that it will rise as more and more big market teams reach the cap. If it doesn't have some sort of "inflation clause," then it would suppress team salaries over time. It wasn't that long ago the $100MM seemed unthinkable for a MLB team, and it won't be that long before most of them will be at $200MM. That's why I would be surprised if there isn't an "inflation clause" that will make sure the big market teams maintain some advantage.

 

I have no doubt teams will go over it in the future. I just question if a team is at the luxury tax if they'll look at a Josh Hamilton type player and decide to spend 500 million dollars on him rather than 250 because they have to pay dollar for dollar in the luxury tax.

 

 

The luxury tax wasn't meant to keep teams AT 189 million, it was meant to punish them for going over it, and spread out the money to the rest of the teams. The most teams going over it, the more money the Brewers will have and the Royals, the Pirates, etc..etc..etc..

 

 

One last thought on how it's moot because they'll just spend that much more on the minor leagues(not totally sure where they'll spend it exactly in the minors with the new limits on how much you can spend in the draft, but I digress), posting fees(which again, it's pretty rare that's a significant issue and a international draft is almost certainly on the horizon) and scouting(the one I with respect find the most ludicrous because that's been the biggest discrepancy since baseball has been around, but also something I don't expect to have a huge impact as the Yankees have been spending a lot more money scouting and spending on international talent than the Rays, but who's produced more from within)......major league baseball has already basically given the small market teams an extra draft pick in the 1st or 2nd round, while drastically cutting back on the compensation picks, which tended to favor the bigger market teams while ALSO limiting how much a team could spend on their draft.

 

So I think MLB has done quite a bit beyond major league baseball and major league salaries to even things out. The Red Sox can't sign Will Middlebrooks for a couple million anymore in the 5th round, the Tigers can't sign top 5-10 talent in the mid to late 20's because of their agent.

 

 

I remember arguing a few years ago with a "friend," of mine that the Brewers payroll would hit 95 in 2011, 100 in '12 and 110 in '13. He vehemently argued with me and told me this market could never support a 100 million dollar payroll(never as in right now, I didn't take it as in at any point in time). Well, we very likely would have been at 110 this year if we'd been in the race, and we're adding 30 million at least in JUST TV money next season, forget the radio deal which I have no idea if that adds millions or 1 million or what, but that also expired and is a new contract, and we've increased ticket prices. And according to Forbes, the closest we're going to get to an accurate accounting, the Brewers have not only NOT lost money in the years in which Mark A suggested they MAY do, but they've made out quite well, none better than last year.

 

 

I'll also be honest, I studied finance in school, and one of my professors whom I still keep in touch with was a former accountant for the Milwaukee Brewers, and much of what I'm saying is coming from him. Not all, but some. Of course when I initially said it, it was mocked(not here). But now that we've not only hit the numbers I've predicted when we where spending 80 million and people thought THAT was a lot, but exceeding them, I think they have a bit more merit.

[HiAndTight]

TV contracts are definitely not a reason the gap is closing. The gap is widening because of TV contracts. And significantly.

 

Since we we've been talking about it.......

 

Just announced yesterday;

 

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-08-28/espn-reaches-5-dot-6-billion-deal-to-expand-mlb-coverage

 

 

So with the revenue sharing by MLB, the Brewers will recieve a significantly larger amount of money from MLB, and MLB's playoff rights are also expected explode as their Fox AND TBS deals expire after 2013 along with ESPN's, and the windfall from those deals should be larger than ESPN's.

 

So these are the TV rights I'm talking about, and you're no doubt correct that teams individual TV contracts in some cases are really growing, but coming back to my point, it all means more money for the Brewers and more competitive balance. I don't know if the new TV deals mean 20-30-40 million more on top of the 30 million that's expected to be added to our revenue next year, but it should be a nice chunk of money.

 

The Yankees again, are now going to be penalized after 2013 for being over 189 million dollars...they where at 185 in 2004 when we where at 28. We, IMO, could easily be going into 2014 at 120 million and the Yankees scrambling to get as close to that 189 figure as possible(as I've already stated, they have to now decide what they're willing to pay Granderson and/or Cano, they're not bringing Swisher back as a result).

 

And AGAIN, the competitive balance draft for additional 1st and 2nd round picks, the penalties for spending over your alloted budget...

 

The only thing remaining is a international draft, and I really see no reason for the players union to not be behind that. It's similar to the NFL draft. Why would the Vets want to see big money go to a Cepedeis who is unproven, or the kid from the Dominican who I believe it was who got 4+ million as a 16 year old. Posting Fee's and Cuban defections getting outrageous sums.

 

Beyond that, I don't know what more MLB can do for small market clubs short of the hard cap I mentioned.

 

Anyway, just one domino in the three to fall as far as mega TV deals that will help along with the 189 number to vastly-vastly close the gap and allow for the small and mid market teams to compete for Free Agents, and retain their own MUCH-MORESO than before. And I do expect that in the next few years you'll see multiple teams cross that 200 million dollar figure, but in doing so, again, a lot of that goes into our pocket and they'll have to put more thought into it rather than just signing a guy like Rafiel Soriano to a terrible, 14 million dollar a year joke of a deal just so...well..hey, we have a a great closer if the greatest of all time who's paid about 15 million a year decides to retire.

 

With an owner like Attansio, I think we'll be able to keep a lot more of the marquee type guys we really want.

 

I also suspect that teams will operate somewhat like the NBA. Look ahead at who's going to become a FA and try and clear some payroll room. The Yankees and LA's, Boston's and Texas type teams will always be in the drivers seat when it comes to marquee players, but at least we're riding shotgun now....or will be IMO.