Wolf released

[Funketown]

 

I don't doubt your motives, but the projections for the young players don't have a lot of information to go on. As I've said before, it would be nice if the SABR guys would be able to come up with player specific standard deviations, along with an upside / downside feature. Why is a player 50% likely to be above or below projections, and by how much? They're taking an educated guess, so is it really so accurate that there is exactly a 50/50 chance? If so, does a specific player have a greater chance of doing excessively well than he has of doing excessively bad? Are some players easier to project than others, and if so, is that detailed in the projections?

 

I'm betting the folks who come up with these projections do have some way to measure this, but that they don't publish it online. I would find that interesting as well, but for now I'll just go by the conventional wisdom that we should expect inexperienced players as a group to deviate from their projections a great deal more than highly established players.

[slappzilla]

I consider myself an informed Brewer fan. As an informed brewer fan, I cannot seriously say I think the Brewers will contend in 2013 without a lot of luck and guys playing (pitching) over their head.

 

As an informed Brewer fan, did you think the Brewers would contend this year? Just curious.

yes, I did. I actually thought this years team would be better than last years team, as dumb as that comes off now.

 

I didn't see the bullpen being so ridiculously bad nor the injuries of course. Not making excuses, just saying...

[joepepsi]

This is potentially a great move for Wolf. A contender can add him on Aug 31, and if he eats up some innings out of the pen could even make the playoff roster. A veteran lefty can always be handy in the playoffs.

 

Good luck Randy. You gave us two solid years and were an integral part of the best Brewers rotation I can remember. and as someone else said, you always held yourself accountable. A solid major league pitcher who had a good career and made the most of his talent.

[monty57]

This is potentially a great move for Wolf. A contender can add him on Aug 31, and if he eats up some innings out of the pen could even make the playoff roster. A veteran lefty can always be handy in the playoffs.

 

Good luck Randy. You gave us two solid years and were an integral part of the best Brewers rotation I can remember. and as someone else said, you always held yourself accountable. A solid major league pitcher who had a good career and made the most of his talent.

 

Yeah, as bad as this initially looked (cutting him on his birthday), I think Melvin was trying to be nice to a veteran pitcher. He could've easily stuck him in the bullpen, which would've killed Wolf's value this offseason. Now, Wolf could either contribute to a playoff run, or he could step into the rotation for league minimum on a non-playoff team in need of a starter.

 

This had to be done to garner "goodwill," as the purely financial aspect would say that he could still help the team in the bullpen and we're still paying him, so he should've been moved to the 'pen. Who knows, maybe now he'll talk nice about the Brewers and that'll help us land a free agent in the future.

[thebruce44]

I consider myself an informed Brewer fan. As an informed brewer fan, I cannot seriously say I think the Brewers will contend in 2013 without a lot of luck and guys playing (pitching) over their head.

 

As an informed Brewer fan, did you think the Brewers would contend this year? Just curious.

yes, I did. I actually thought this years team would be better than last years team, as dumb as that comes off now.

 

I didn't see the bullpen being so ridiculously bad nor the injuries of course. Not making excuses, just saying...

 

So you projected this years team to win more than 96 games. And you project next years team to be below .500 (what I would call not competing) when they project to have a better or equal offense and better or equal bullpen. You are in effect saying the loss of Greinke, Marcum, Narv, and Wolf vs the additions of Fiers, Rogers, Estrada/Peralta, and perhaps a FA will cause at least a negative 14 win swing?

[JohnBriggs12]

This year's collapse can be squarely blamed on the bullpen. The lineup, even with season ending injuries to 2 starters, produced at an acceptable level, though early struggles of Ramirez and especially Weeks made things tougher. The Brewers do have reliable cornerstone players. As such they go into every season with a chance. Every team has variables primarily in pitching. Nobody saw the bullpen collapse to the extent it did this year. We need to see what changes to the pitching staff are made.

[slappzilla]

next year - equal offense, weaker rotation due to unknowns (no one knows what young arms will do), and an unknown bullpen = not a team I consider a contender.

 

You can say the bullpen will be better if you want to play the "well they can't get any worse" card, but the fact of the matter is the bullpen is just as much of an unknown as the rotation. To assume Doug will go out and sign a shutdown bullpen is asking a bit much to say the least.

 

In 2013 the unknowns become knowns, and then in 2014 Doug fills whatever voids we have and then the Brewers seriously contend.

[thebruce44]

next year - equal offense, weaker rotation due to unknowns (no one knows what young arms will do), and an unknown bullpen = not a team I consider a contender.

 

You can say the bullpen will be better if you want to play the "well they can't get any worse" card, but the fact of the matter is the bullpen is just as much of an unknown as the rotation. To assume Doug will go out and sign a shutdown bullpen is asking a bit much to say the least.

 

In 2013 the unknowns become knowns, and then in 2014 Doug fills whatever voids we have and then the Brewers seriously contend.

 

I would actually say the bullpen is an unknown every year. Why not just assume it will be league average, that's your best bet any given year. That being said, to me it sounds like you are saying equal offense, equal bullpen (being unknown every year), and unknowns at pitching means we CANNOT contend next year.

 

Surely you can see the issue with arguing that something absolutely can't happen based on an unknown variable, no?

[slappzilla]

I like how you bolded "CANNOT" as if I said there's no shot at all.

 

Go back and read my post again. I simply said that if I had to pick the Brewers as either being a team that will contend next year, or being a team that will not contend, I would pick them as being a team that won't contend due to what Melvin has said regarding how the team will look next year with the young arms in the rotation.

 

Could they pull it off and become contender, sure, but I truly don't see how any informative Brewer fan could come to the conclusion that they are more of a contender next year than a non-contender if you had to pick a side.

 

If the bullpen is expected to be league average, I still don't see the Brewers has contending in 2013 because of the unknowns in the rotation. They will be a .500 team next year I think. If you think .500 means they're a contender, that's fine, but I don't.

[Harry Doyles JD]

...and this same argument about contending next year between the same group of posters has leaked here now why?

 

Repeating the same arguments ad nauseam is fruitless, boring and tedious.

[phnxcrew]

I would say as long as we ink a couple decent relievers and starters to compliment the young pitchers we have across the board it would be very possible to compete next year. Who's this amazing team that will dominate the central in 2013? Sure, the cardinals will have some giant (and suspicious) over achievers, the reds will be solid and so will the pirates. At this point we look like a 4th place finisher but i very highly doubt that melvin won't add a couple bullpen arms along with a starter to make a solid team again. Mark A seems to have no intentions of rebuilding ever.

[slappzilla]

so you don't take Melvin seriously when asked about the rotation next year he said he was going to see what the guys in the farm system could do?

 

I'd sort of consider that rebuilding, no?

[thebruce44]

I like how you bolded "CANNOT" as if I said there's no shot at all.

 

Go back and read my post again. I simply said that if I had to pick the Brewers as either being a team that will contend next year, or being a team that will not contend, I would pick them as being a team that won't contend due to what Melvin has said regarding how the team will look next year with the young arms in the rotation.

 

Could they pull it off and become contender, sure, but I truly don't see how any informative Brewer fan could come to the conclusion that they are more of a contender next year than a non-contender if you had to pick a side.

 

If the bullpen is expected to be league average, I still don't see the Brewers has contending in 2013 because of the unknowns in the rotation. They will be a .500 team next year I think. If you think .500 means they're a contender, that's fine, but I don't.

 

I bolded it because you did say that. I didn't realize you had changed your opinion.

 

 

...and this same argument about contending next year between the same group of posters has leaked here now why?

 

Repeating the same arguments ad nauseam is fruitless, boring and tedious.

 

Sorry to bother you so much, just trying to understand his argument. It seems to have changed from what I remembered, hence my question.

[slappzilla]

It never changed.

[Bombers]

Can we get a split on this thread into a new thread? I will start it ... But these last few comments have nothing to do with Wolf being released. Lets put this thread to bed and let everyone say Good bye Randy - Thanks for the time.

[1992casey]

Repeating the same arguments ad nauseam is fruitless, boring and tedious.

 

I concur with that assessment. It seems that we're hearing the same arguments over and over with the only difference being that people are getting "louder."

 

Can we get a split on this thread into a new thread? I will start it ...

 

I'm going to lock this one. If we were to split and merge into the new topic, I think that would end up making a mess out of that thread.