Wolf released

[bullox]

Tom @Haudricourt

Oops. #Brewers couldn't activate INF Jeff Bianchi today because hadn't been down 10 days. Won't be activated until Saturday

 

Who will take his place?

[Outlander]

I would guess nobody.

[Baldkin]

Who will take his place?

 

Marcum.

[trwi7]

And to think, just a couple months ago people were making the argument that the Brewers would pick up Wolf's option.

[TheCrew07]

It's not surprising that the contract ended badly given his age and stuff, but the profound drop off is a bit perplexing.

 

I was rather indifferent to Wolf the entire time he was here, I appreciated and welcomed his success, and the contract certainly wasn't the colossal blunder that Suppan's was, but I never really felt good watching him pitch so I was always rather uneasy about him. For whatever I always felt better about Marcum as pitcher, maybe it's because Marcum has a signature pitch.

 

I guess I felt the same way about Wolf as I did the Brewers in 2011, I was just waiting for it to all come crashing down.

 

I'll be curious where he goes from here, similar pitchers who fell off with the Brewers have never gotten their career's back on track (Davis, Looper, Suppan) so I hope for Randy's sake there's still gas left in the tank.

[derflotr]

I think he can still be successful in the right situation - in other words, a big park where fly balls go to die. I have no clue of the Athletics' level of desperation right now after Colon's suspension, but that's a possibility. Of course, there's the Kottaras connection...

[adambr2]

Randy Wolf finished with a 29-32 record with a 4.37 ERA as a Brewer.

 

While that isn't a Suppanesque disaster, that's the kind of production that you would like to get from your 0-6 guys like Estrada at minimal cost.

 

I would rather invest $20M a year in an ace rather than 2 starters with that kind of production.

 

Gallardo contract looks pretty good now. While I agree that the Wolf contract was pretty much "market value" overall for what he produced, that doesn't make it a good value for us. If nothing else it just goes to show you the overall cost and franchise burden of being unable to develop your own starting pitching, a problem we hopefully won't have going forward.

[chadomac]

Wolf has a signature pitch - that big slow curve. He just couldn't locate it this year.

 

And he earned those first two years of the deal, so think of it as a 1-yr/11-million dollar mistake. It ain't no big thing.

[thebruce44]

We paid him $30 mil for 2.7 WAR. The contract wasn't a killer, but I think its a big stretch to say he earned the money we gave him.

[rluzinski]

Randy Wolf finished with a 29-32 record with a 4.37 ERA as a Brewer.

 

While that isn't a Suppanesque disaster, that's the kind of production that you would like to get from your 0-6 guys like Estrada at minimal cost.

 

That's pretty close to an average starting pitcher that gets around $8 mil a year in free agency. If you have 5 starting pitchers that haven't hit free agency and are all at least average, you are doing really well for yourself.

 

I would rather invest $20M a year in an ace rather than 2 starters with that kind of production.

 

If you talking about an ace who is twice as good as a an average starting pitcher, it's really dependent on how many decent starting pitchers a team has and what they are paying for them.

[PrinceEatMeat]

I think Segura's injury also expedited things and a move needed to be made immediately.

 

Actually it has nothing to do with it. Bianchi can't even be activated until Saturday, because he hasn't been down 10 days yet. Plus, Roenicke said Segura will likely play on Friday. It was just a move to clear space in the rotation for Marcum. Rather than put Wolf in the pen, they released him to give him a shot to catch on somewhere else. That's all it is. There was no just no reason to put off releasing Wolf for another few days or however long. This just gives him more time to catch on with another team.

[Ennder]

Good move and not because I hate Wolf or don't think he can be productive but because we are a team that has to catch lightning in a bottle to compete next year and there are just better options for that. We don't need mediocre veterans we need high upside players who hopefully will come through for us.

[hawing]

Randy can take solace in the fact that the Brewers have undoubtedly ruined many other birthdays this summer before his.

Considering how often fans at the park are hoisting signs saying "IT'S MY BIRTHDAY" (second only to "MY FIRST BREWERS GAME"), that's probably accurate.

[rluzinski]

I don't see why we have to assume the Brewers have to get lucky to be able to compete next year. My definition of being able to compete is an 85 win projection. That gives you something like a 35% chance of making the playoffs (and no, I'm not including the one game playoff). I haven't done any calculations or anything but I suspect the Brewers might be a starting pitcher and a few relievers away from that. Just looking at some updated projections for some current Brewers, things look interesting.

[monty57]

I don't see why we have to assume the Brewers have to get lucky to be able to compete next year.

 

I don't know if I'd call it "luck." We need the guys who played well this year to continue to play well, we need our young pitchers to have good years and we need to rebuild the bullpen and have that rebuilt bullpen pitch well.

 

Everyone talks about the players who played poorly, but they fail to take into account that we had some players play better than expected. I doubt Lucroy will post an OPS over .900 next year. I doubt Fiers is really a sub-3 ERA pitcher. Braun could "only" post an OPS in the mid-to-upper .800's. Greinke and Marcum both posted ace-like stats, and neither will probably be around next season. Players ebb-and-flow from season to season, so while we can expect to see better play in places like the bullpen, it's pretty likely we will see worse play in other areas.

 

Actually, other than early injuries and the catastrophe that was the bullpen, I'd say we had a bit of luck this season. Braun won his PED case and is playing better than he did in his MVP year. Melvin seemed surpirsed his lowball bid won him Aoki, and where would we be without him? Almost all of our young players and injury replacements have played well above what most expected. Outside of SS, our injuries have occurred in positions where we had depth.

 

To me, I just hope Melvin looks at what's best for the Brewers in 2013 and beyond, not just what's best for the 2013 Brewers. The chance of them winning is there, but it's not high enough to give up some of the future to "win now."

 

To topic, I'm kind of surprised that Wolf wasn't relegated to bullpen duty, where he could at least provide something to the team that is paying him. I think this is a case of Melvin trying to be "nice" to a veteran player, in allowing him to seek a deal as a starter elsewhere rather than being typecast as a long reliever going into free agency. Hopefully the goodwill created will be worth more than the utility we'd receive from having Wolf in the pen.

[Thurston Fluff]

I suspect that the Brewer told Wolf that they would be using his spot in the rotation to audition some younger guys. They may have given him the option of going into the bullpen or being released and choose to be released. Just guessing though, obviously. I would rather have Wolf in the pen that Hernandez, for sure.

 

I thought he would have been sent to the pen as well. I think you may be correct he may have choosen to be left go.

And to think, just a couple months ago people were making the argument that the Brewers would pick up Wolf's option.

 

I was one of them. A couple months ago it made some amount of sense but that was always contingent on him returning to what he had always been. A solid #3 type of pitcher. I don't think anyone was saying that lately. I certainly wasn't.

[rluzinski]

I don't know if I'd call it "luck." We need the guys who played well this year to continue to play well, we need our young pitchers to have good years and we need to rebuild the bullpen and have that rebuilt bullpen pitch well... Everyone talks about the players who played poorly, but they fail to take into account that we had some players play better than expected.

 

I'm not assuming that all the under performing players will play better and all the over performing players will continue to over perform in 2013. That would be assuming some luck. My expectations of players for 2013 are based largely on projections. Those projections anticipate some regression (both up and down). Players should have a 50% chance of being above or below that. I'm also assuming that Melvin can get fair market value for the wins he will be trying to buy in free agency (e.g. starting pitcher, relievers). That is being neither optimistic or pessimistic.

 

Again, I have not done any kind of comprehensive study on this but I suspect the Brewers can get to an objective, unbiased 85+ win projection for 2013.

[slappzilla]

I don't see why we have to assume the Brewers have to get lucky to be able to compete next year.

The Brewers have too many xfactors.

 

Too many xfactors = need luck

 

- young SP's that we don't know how they'll pan out.

- don't know how (or even if) Doug will fix the bullpen

 

 

I think the starting lineup will be solid and there won't be many, if any holes or xfactors in the starting lineup, which is good, but MLB is a pitching favored league now a days and you need solid pitching to contend. As of right now we don't know if the Brewers have solid pitching in 2013 cause of all the xfactors.

[rluzinski]

I don't see why we have to assume the Brewers have to get lucky to be able to compete next year.

The Brewers have too many xfactors.

 

Too many xfactors = need luck

 

- young SP's that we don't know how they'll pan out.

- don't know how (or even if) Doug will fix the bullpen

 

Maybe we have a different definition of luck but having a higher uncertainty in your projections of younger players doesn't mean you need luck for them to pan out. They have as good of a chance of exceeding our expectations (provided we have an unbiased expectations to begin with).

 

And as I said, I am assuming that Melvin (like any other GM) can pay the going rate for free agents to fill in the gaps. Really, I think the Brewers' 25 man roster for 2013 is closer to being set than many other teams. The starting 8 position players may already be decided. 3 spots in the rotation are locks, with another spot probably taken by one of the other young guys.

[slappzilla]

3 spots?

 

Gallardo/Fiers and....

 

I realize Thornton/Peralta/Rogers/Estrada/Narveson can all contend for the other spots, but I'm fairly sure the only locks are Gallardo and Fiers.

[monty57]

I don't know if I'd call it "luck." We need the guys who played well this year to continue to play well, we need our young pitchers to have good years and we need to rebuild the bullpen and have that rebuilt bullpen pitch well... Everyone talks about the players who played poorly, but they fail to take into account that we had some players play better than expected.

 

I'm not assuming that all the under performing players will play better and all the over performing players will continue to over perform in 2013. That would be assuming some luck. My expectations of players for 2013 are based largely on projections. Those projections anticipate some regression (both up and down). Players should have a 50% chance of being above or below that. I'm also assuming that Melvin can get fair market value for the wins he will be trying to buy in free agency (e.g. starting pitcher, relievers). That is being neither optimistic or pessimistic.

 

Again, I have not done any kind of comprehensive study on this but I suspect the Brewers can get to an objective, unbiased 85+ win projection for 2013.

 

I don't doubt your motives, but the projections for the young players don't have a lot of information to go on. As I've said before, it would be nice if the SABR guys would be able to come up with player specific standard deviations, along with an upside / downside feature. Why is a player 50% likely to be above or below projections, and by how much? They're taking an educated guess, so is it really so accurate that there is exactly a 50/50 chance? If so, does a specific player have a greater chance of doing excessively well than he has of doing excessively bad? Are some players easier to project than others, and if so, is that detailed in the projections?

 

After this season, Fiers is going to be projected to pitch really well. Maybe he will, but all/most of his risk is on the downside, as he probably can't pitch much better than he's pitched this season, but he could end up getting shelled next year. Are the regressions specific to him and are they going to accurately calculate upside/downside risk? Gomez is another one. Projecting him is not nearly as precise a science as projecting Braun (which still isn't extremely precise). As we found this season, most bullpen guys are a crapshoot.

 

How the young guys pitch is a huge part of how well the Brewers play in 2013. I know they have the talent to pitch well. I hope they pitch well. I don't think anyone can reasonably project whether or not they actually will pitch well. Fixing the bullpen will also play a huge role, but it's hard to say that anyone could get "fair market value for wins" in a bullpen. I'd say the odds are probably pretty good that the players we will non-tender because of poor performance this season will pitch as well or better than whoever Melvin picks up will do for the Brewers next year. Veras, Parra and K-Rod are all talented, they just stunk this year. Whether that's attributed to "bad luck" or "pitching being contagious" or "Roenicke's fault" or whatever anyone wants to call it doesn't matter. The bullpen was supposed to be one of our biggest strengths coming into 2012 and it turned into our biggest weakness. Melvin may spend $10MM fixing the bullpen and have them be lights out or terrible, it just depends on how they throw in their limited innings. Meanwhile, depth was supposed to be a weakness this year, but almost everyone who filled in for an injured player did well. Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems far easier to get "fair market value for wins" in position players or even SP than in the bullpen or bench simply due to the number of chances they will recieve. But "easy" is probably a bad term, because an expensive player can bust at any position the same way an inexpensive player can flourish.

 

Barring injuries, if we hold on to Hart, we should have a good offense, as most of the players have a pretty good track record to go off of. It really just comes down to how much faith Melvin has in the young pitching. If he thinks they're a playoff-caliber bunch, he'll hold onto Hart (lower standard deviation, higher % chance of meeting projections) and try to make a run at the playoffs. If he thinks they need some more time to "gel," then he should probably trade Hart for prospects and stick Gamel at 1B (higher standard deviation, could be boom, bust or anywhere in between).

 

The saying is "you make your own luck." Going off of that, really the only "luck" would be injuries. In 2011, we got very lucky that we only needed six different SP all season. This year, we were unlucky in that we had a lot of injuries, but lucky in that most of them were in positions where the replacement did very well (notable exception at SS). If we are "lucky" in 2013, we will not have any injuries. If we are unlucky and key players get hurt, we will be hard pressed to make the playoffs... something which could be said about most teams in baseball. Other than that, if the young pitchers and the rebuilt bullpen pitch well and no key player on offense implodes, then we could make a run at the division next year. I just have reservations that the young pitchers and rebuilt bullpen will pitch well enough to get us there.

[torts]

3 spots?

 

Gallardo/Fiers and....

 

I realize Thornton/Peralta/Rogers/Estrada/Narveson can all contend for the other spots, but I'm fairly sure the only locks are Gallardo and Fiers.

 

right now, yes, but come on, next season is 7 months away. Mark A and Melvin have plenty of time to work their magic. you're ruling out trades and signings and only going off of our current pitching depth. I say having Gallardo/Fiers, those extra arms and one FA signing, the brewers can definitely still contend.

[TheCrew07]

I would expect the young players to have ups and downs but gradually ascend through out the season. I'm not sure Segura is ready for MLB, but the team made a decision to go with him. As such, we might see an extended time of "Hardyesque" craptitude for his first 3-6 months (counting his playing time this year) but hopefully he'll figure it out just like JJ did. Since they apparently had Jean slated to be the everyday SS in 2013 I don't have a problem with him getting some experience in a season that no longer matters.

 

With Wolf and Greinke gone, I'm still not sold that Estrada is any kind of long-term answer, he tends to get through the order once or twice before running into problems which suggests he'd make a pretty darn good reliever. I think people want to rush to judgement on players both ways, if they hit the ground running or not, as in the various conversations about Gamel and Fiers. I'm willing to be patient and let the situations play themselves out for at least a full season before getting too excited either way. I'd be shocked if Fiers proved to be a low 3 ERA type of guy but he just may be, it's too early to make any definitive statements either way but he's someone whom Brewer fans should feel legitimately excited about.

 

Posters that have read my thoughts on Rogers over the years know that I love the young man but his BB rate has always concerned me. Which Wily Peralta will show up? The one who pitched horribly in the first half or the one who pitched pretty well in the second half? He also has a walk rate that concerns me. Tyler Thornburg tends to leave very hittable balls up over the plate and as excited as I am about him if he doesn't clean up his walks and XBHs allowed he won't reach his ceiling either. Is Hiram Burgos the pitcher who allowed less than 7 hits per 9 innings this season or is the truth somewhere between this season and the rest of his career?

 

I'm all for a continued youth movement, but there are simply too many questions that the young pitchers have to answer for me to make a reasonable guess how any of those guys will/would do in the rotation next year. That's not even taking into consideration pitchers like Hellweg and Pena whom i doubt will be MLB starting pitchers even though they have the stuff to be or Jungmann who's big test will come next season in AA. We have plenty of big arms but all of them have pretty much the same control issues that need to be ironed out, who sticks and who doesn't?

[slappzilla]

next season is 7 months away. Mark A and Melvin have plenty of time to work their magic. you're ruling out trades and signings and only going off of our current pitching depth. I say having Gallardo/Fiers, those extra arms and one FA signing, the brewers can definitely still contend.

I'm basing my assumption off of what Melvin said as far as giving the young arms a shot next year and seeing what we have in them. I'm also going off of Melvin saying that this years payroll was an "over budget" payroll and that next years payroll will be between $80-$90M, not $100M like this year.

 

that, and I don't see any FA SP that the Brewers can/will sign that will make a significant enough difference in the rotation.

 

I am also assuming Fiers takes a step back. I hope he's sub 3 ERA good, but if I had to bet, I'd say he's closer to a 4 ERA next year.

 

Like I said before, I see 2013 as a year where the Brewers see what they have with their young guys, and then 2014 as a year where they plug holes and seriously contend.

 

I consider myself an informed Brewer fan. As an informed brewer fan, I cannot seriously say I think the Brewers will contend in 2013 without a lot of luck and guys playing (pitching) over their head.

 

You guys may not think I am an informed brewer fan, that's fine, but I'm just saying it how I see it.

[thebruce44]

I consider myself an informed Brewer fan. As an informed brewer fan, I cannot seriously say I think the Brewers will contend in 2013 without a lot of luck and guys playing (pitching) over their head.

 

As an informed Brewer fan, did you think the Brewers would contend this year? Just curious.