2013 Draft prospects discussion

[James Zumstein]

Thanks for the response (and the correction) , Colby. If Jonah Wesley was there, I would love to see us get him. I've heard he potentially has as much upside as any LHP HS pitcher, including 1st round locks like Clarkin, Gonzalves and Kominsky. I'm curious about your expert opinion.

[colbyjack]

I'm not so sure Wesely is on the same level as Kaminsky, or even Clarkin for that matter, but he's a little different as a pitcher so it's hard for me to compare. Gonsalves unfortunately has regressed the past year, as he was spotting 90-92 a year ago and now he's having trouble spotting 87-90.

 

Wesely may have the best full, 4-pitch repertoire of the bunch, throwing both a true curveball and slider, and when he's at his best he's sitting in the low-90s peaking around 94. I've heard he hasn't been quite as sharp this spring, but that could have changed by now. Hard to get reports this early out of NorCal.

[narwhalattack]

I'm really hoping that the Brewers are able to nab either Jordan Sheffield, Carlos Salazar, or Clinton Hollon. I would love to see some young power arms in the lower minors.

[SoupTown]

It may 'ugly' for the low minors, but I would love the Crew to simply pick all high school guys - whether arms or positions. I am tired of the high floor, low ceiling college guys. In free agency you can get get plenty of low ceiling, fill players at a price you can afford. Mind you, the odd, high ceiling, 'was injured' college guy seems OK to draft, as well.

 

And from a MLB viewpoint, we seem very 'set' for two to three years. So pick all 19 years olds - then when they are all 22/23, if they are no good, well you drafted bad and your MLB squad will be horrible in 2016. But this recent attitude of 'let us have a system will all mediocre guys, but if they pan out, we may be a .500 MLB team' has to change IMO.

[James Zumstein]

While I agree with everything you said, I wouldn't count on that happening. High School players have more leverage to demand higher signing bonuses, which the Brewers won't be able to pay now that will lose almost $2M from their pool. Due to this fact, we will almost certainly take 1-2 college juniors within the first five rounds.

[colbyjack]

"But this recent attitude of 'let us have a system will all mediocre guys, but if they pan out, we may be a .500 MLB team' has to change IMO."

 

I think you're projecting what the "attitude" is. That's your perception, as I don't think any scouting department is going to draft players with the idea that they'll take some mediocre players with a chance to be a .500 MLB team. I can guarantee you that the Brewers are drafting guys that they believe can be significant contributors at the MLB level. We may not agree with the picks, and in hindsight some of them have been questionable, but it's not because of a philosophy to be content with mediocrity as the ceiling.

 

It's important to note that the Brewers did take a risk with Tyrone Taylor last year. He wasn't that well known of a commodity, and while all he has to stand by is a few very good months in rookie ball, so far that pick has looked very astute.

[SoupTown]

I guess then the Brewers' drafters just are on a different page to the other talent evaluators. I keep hearing, from non Brewer people, that guy has a 'high floor, low ceiling'. If the Crew thinks drafting Big 10 4 year college arms are 'high ceiling' picks, then I stand corrected - re the attitude. I guess I would then worry about the talent evaluation.

 

I recall the Rogers over Bailey pick. That was some of the weirdest talent evaluation. And most evaluators at the time said the same thing.

 

I am not big in knowing the abilities of the draft candidates. So when I take the Brewer goggles off, and look at what others say, it makes me scratch my head. (ha ha, mind you, Prince was head scratcher if you believed all but the Crew - but overall, the Brewers do seem to be on a different page to the rest, and, so far, that page aint working out very well)

[colbyjack]

I think you answered it yourself with your example of Prince Fielder Souptown in regards to the team's curious selections. Yes, Rogers vs. Bailey was debated frequently at the time, and for quite some time after the pick. But like you said, Prince Fielder wasn't projected to go as high as he was. Neither was Ryan Braun.

 

Of course for every Fielder and Braun pick there are ones like Mark Rogers and even Matt LaPorta. The LaPorta pick is somewhat given a pass since he was the main cog that acquired Sabathia, otherwise we may just have someone like Jason Heyward playing RF for us right now.

 

I disagree that their talent evaluation isn't working out right now. The scouting dep't is the reason that the Brewers have been in contention, and even made the playoffs, the last several years. Of course there was a long road of miserable seasons that netted the team some high draft picks that allowed the team to secure some key pieces to their success. But even then, they still went on to nail picks like Hardy, Hart and Gallardo. The most recent years are under scrutiny, but Jack Z's first couple of years drafting were under great scrutiny as well (Dave Krynzel and Mike Jones).

 

It's no secret that the Brewers switched up their drafting tendencies in recent years, not only to be able to cultivate talent more quickly, but also to use that more quickly developed talent in trades, as they have done quite a few times the past several years. I remain skeptical, but as others have noted in the minor league link reports so far this season, the Wisconsin team offers hope that the system may be showing signs of turning around.

[tbbrewers]

Any chance the Brewers will take a shot at Wil Crowe from Pigeon Forge,TN? I would imagine he would be a selection where they are drafting. He is a South Carolina commitment and may be a hard kid to sign.

 

I have seen him play a lot. He and my son have played against each other since they were eight years old. He has always been a very good pitcher. We also played against him in our district this year. He really does throw the ball in the low 90's and does not walk very many. His high school stats for this year are 14-1 on the season with 164 strikeouts, 12 walks and an ERA hovering around 0.50.

[LouisEly]

I guess then the Brewers' drafters just are on a different page to the other talent evaluators. I keep hearing, from non Brewer people, that guy has a 'high floor, low ceiling'. If the Crew thinks drafting Big 10 4 year college arms are 'high ceiling' picks, then I stand corrected - re the attitude. I guess I would then worry about the talent evaluation.

 

I recall the Rogers over Bailey pick. That was some of the weirdest talent evaluation. And most evaluators at the time said the same thing.

 

Weren't there concerns about signing Bailey? For a system that was lacking in talent, the risk of not being able to sign someone was possibly greater than taking a player rated slightly lower because they needed to get talent in the system. CMIIR, this was well before teams got a pick in the subsequent draft if a guy didn't sign, so if they couldn't sign Bailey they got nothing.

 

It's not like Rogers was Matt Bush. Rogers had talent, he just got hurt.

[nate82]

Actually with the Rogers and Bailey debate I believe Rogers is actually the pitcher that has and had more potential. Bailey has just figured everything out last season before that he was a train wreck. If it were not for the injuries that Rogers has sustained I believe you could argue that Rogers was the better pick over Bailey as his ceiling looks to be a lot higher than that of Bailey's. Bailey right now looks like he is going to be a #3 or possibly a #2 type starter. If Rogers were healthy I believe you could project his ceiling as a #1 or #2 type starter. The difference between Bailey and Rogers is that Bailey has a higher floor than Rogers does. With Bailey you are talking about a floor of a #4 or as high as a #3 starter and with Rogers you are looking at a bullpen guy maybe a late inning relief pitcher. The floors are what really separates Rogers and Bailey right now.

 

I believe the Brewers took the right player in Rogers over Bailey. Now both have had very frustrating careers so far with Bailey early on being very erratic at times and with Rogers the frustration being mostly with his injuries. I would still take Rogers over Bailey in that draft as I believe Rogers actually has the higher potential over Bailey.

[LouisEly]

The organization doesn't have much for 3B prospects, and there are several guys projected to go in the 50-90 range that I wouldn't mind seeing them pick:

 

Tucker Neuhaus, HS (Tampa), L/R (some have SS, some project 3B)

Ryan McMahon, HS (Mater Dei, CA), L/R

Victor Caratini, Miami Dade CC (Freshman), B/R

 

Some have Riley Unroe (is he the son of Brewer legend Tim Unroe?) projected at 2B, but that wouldn't be the worst thing in the world if he ended up there - they could use a 2B too. As for pitching, if Kevin Ziomek is still there at #54 he would be a nice pick - gave up only 63 H in 99.2 IP and K'd 102 in the SEC. Something tells me he will be gone.

[nate82]

The organization doesn't have much for 3B prospects, and there are several guys projected to go in the 50-90 range that I wouldn't mind seeing them pick:

 

Tucker Neuhaus, HS (Tampa), L/R (some have SS, some project 3B)

Ryan McMahon, HS (Mater Dei, CA), L/R

Victor Caratini, Miami Dade CC (Freshman), B/R

 

Some have Riley Unroe (is he the son of Brewer legend Tim Unroe?) projected at 2B, but that wouldn't be the worst thing in the world if he ended up there - they could use a 2B too. As for pitching, if Kevin Ziomek is still there at #54 he would be a nice pick - gave up only 63 H in 99.2 IP and K'd 102 in the SEC. Something tells me he will be gone.

 

For 3B I like Dustin Peterson, 3b, Gilbert (Ariz.) HS and Travis Demeritte, 3b, Winder-Barrow HS, Winder, Ga. who both could be available in the 2nd round. Though Dustin Peterson has been climbing in his draft stock and may not be available when the Brewers pick but I think he will be.

 

I would still prefer AJ Puk over any player the Brewers think of even grabbing with their 1st pick in the draft. Though Jake Brentz, lhp, Parkway South HS, Manchester, Mo. would be a good pick up also. Still I want Puk as I think he is an impact pitcher that may fall into the Brewers lap in the 2nd round.

[LouisEly]

Some project Peterson and Demeritte at 2B though I'm not sure how accurate that is. Given how RH-dominant the Brewers are and that a majority of pitchers are RH, all things being equal I go with the LH hitter, thus my preference for Neuhaus & McMahon. Caratini is more likely to be around in the 3rd/4th if the Brewers go pitching at #54 & 72.

[LouisEly]

While looking at Dylan Covey's numbers at USD (not impressive) I stumbled upon an interesting guy for a 7th-10th round pick, Toreros reliever Trevor Bayless. Struck out 40 in 33 innings with 30 hits; walks are a little high (16) but what is most interesting is that he hasn't given up a HR or triple and only 5 doubles in 126 ABs. Plus he is a senior so he doesn't have much leverage, allowing the Brewers to sign him for slot or less and freeing up more money to sign other picks with their bonus pool allotment. Don't know what he throws.

[LouisEly]

I'll take a half-fast stab here. With minimal research on scouting reports and stats:

 

#54: Kevin Ziomek, LHP, Vanderbilt or Blake Taylor, LHP, Dana Hills HS (CA)

#72: Drew Ward, 3B, Leedy HS (OK) or Tucker Neuhauss, SS/3B, Wharton HS (FL)

#90: Kyle Crockett, LHP, Virginia or Carlos Salazar, RHP, Kerman HS (CA)

4th: Victor Caratini, 3B/C, Miami Dade CC

5th: Akeem Bostick, RHP, West Florence HS (SC) or Lukas Schiraldi, RHP, Navarro CC

6th: Max Knutson, LHP, Mounds View HS (MN)

7th: Chris Freudenberg, LHP, South Mountain (Ariz.) CC

8th: Tony Bryant, RHP, Oregon St

9th: Trevor Bayless, RHP, U of San Diego

10th: splitterftj's friend or Joey Wagman, RHP, Cal Poly

 

I'm really intrigued by Crockett. He was their closer but threw 49 innings in 26 appearances so he's not just a 1-inning guy; struck out 61 and walked only 6 in those 49 innings and didn't give up a HR. At 6'2", 170, he still has room to grow into his frame. Freudenberg had very good K totals but high walks; a good risk/reward at that point. Bryant is listed at 6'7", 225, allowing only 15 hits in 30 IP striking out 28 and gave up only one extra base hit (a double) to the 106 batters he faced. Pitched for the Mallards in 2011. I think there's some upside with him, especially with his size. Wagman is a little small (listed at 6'0", 190) but struck out 103 in 112 innings while only giving up one HR; as a senior (like Bryant and Bayless) he could sign for well below slot, freeing up more money to sign earlier picks.

[JackNicholson1974]

LouisEly, you need to amend your mock picks to include at least two Canadians.

[narwhalattack]

I'll give it my own random stab at the draft, but for the first three picks:

 

#54- Carlos Salazar, RHP, Kerman HS (CA)

#72- A.J Puk, LHP, Washington HS (IA)

#90- A.J Vanegas, RHP, Stanford

[nate82]

#54 - Drew Ward SS, 3B

#72 - Blake Taylor LHP

#90 - Josh Hart OF

4th - Akeem Bostick RHP/OF

[LouisEly]

Good call on Drew Ward, if he can stick at SS or 3B. I missed him.

 

Salazar was one of three finalists I had at #90; went with a lefty instead.

[nate82]

Good call on Drew Ward, if he can stick at SS or 3B. I missed him.

 

I don't believe he will stick at SS but he will definitely stick at 3B. He has an absolute cannon for an arm. Probably as good as Hardy's was. A real 5-tool player and if it wasn't for his draft eligibilty concerns he would have gone in the top 10. Just recently he was cleared as eligible for the draft I believe.

[brewmann04]

They going to have to go with alot of pitching and i like the kid for our future 3rd baseman.

[Eye Black]

For those following the NCAA Baseball tournament, this is a nice summary of 2013 MLB Draft prospects playing in the post-season. I don't necessarily agree with where they have guys projected (like Peterson as a potential top 10 pick), but still does a nice job highlighting some guys to watch now that the NCAA Regionals are underway.

 

Potential Top 10 Picks:

 

Jonathan Gray, RHP, Oklahoma (6-4, 240)

With Mark Appel and Stanford left out of the bracket, Gray become the top pitching prospect to watch. The two-seeded Sooners will be visiting Blacksburg, Va., with a good chance at an upset because of Gray. The power righty was 16th nationally in earned run average (1.55 ERA) after allowing just 19 runs in 110.0 innings, while his 127 strikeouts were fourth overall. Gray has a powerful fastball that touches 98-99 and he also will throw a slider and a change-up.

 

Kris Bryant, 1B/3B, San Diego (6-5, 215)

There are thousands of college baseball players and only two hit more than 20 home runs this year. But only Bryant topped 30 as he blasted a nation's best 31 long bombs — which is more home runs than 225 of the 296 TEAMS in the nation. The massive prospect hails from Las Vegas originally and his huge frame and raw power project him as either a first or third baseman in the majors. The third-seeded Toreros will have to battle through the UCLA Bruins in the first round this weekend.

 

Colin Moran, 3B, North Carolina (6-3, 215)

Much like Bryant, Moran projects at either corner infield spot and this gives him some versatility. He also appears to be very “signable” and that could work in his favor come draft day. He led the nation with 83 RBIs and hit .376 while becoming the seventh Tar Heel to win ACC Player of the Year honors. He doesn’t have Bryant’s power but he has led North Carolina to the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament.

 

Ryne Stanek, RHP, Arkansas (6-4, 190)

If you are looking for an upset pick this tourney, take the Hogs and their excellent pitching staff. The two-seeded Razorbacks will visit host Kansas State this weekend and Stanek's four-pitch repertoire will be on full display. He has a quirky release, but features a powerful fastball (touching 97), a plus-slider and will mix in an improving change-up and adequate curve. He was a third-round pick two years ago and has clearly improved his stock. Pitching in the best league in the nation, his 1.40 ERA (90.0 IP) is 11th nationally.

 

Hunter Renfroe, OF, Mississippi State (6-1, 210)

The Bulldogs were gifted a regional host assignment and the SEC’s home run leader (15) will be the star of the show in Starkville. He also has played catcher and has an arm that might intrigue scouts as well. Will his versatility help his draft stock or does he lack a true position?

 

D.J. Peterson, 1B/3B/OF, New Mexico (6-1, 210)

The third-seeded Lobos won the Mountain West conference by a wide margin and Peterson was a huge part of that. His .411 average was third nationally and his 18 big flies finished third in the nation as well. The smooth swinging righty is one of the best pure hitters in the nation and will make New Mexico a tough out in the Cal-State Fullerton regional.

 

Other Potential First-Rounders:

 

Alex Balog, RHP, San Francisco (6-5, 210)

The big righty has been a late riser in the draft process and should slip into the first round. He will lead the three-seeded Dons into the Eugene Regional to face Rice, Oregon and South Dakota State.

 

Jonathon Crawford, RHP, Florida (6-2, 205)

The talented Gators arm blossomed on the 2012 CWS team as his no-hitter against Bethune-Cookman in the Gainesville Regional a year ago helped propel UF to Omaha. He has a plus fastball and three upside pitches

 

Ryan Eades, RHP, LSU (6-3, 200)

As one of two aces for the SEC tourney champs, Eades has a chance to make himself some money in this tournament. He has excellent command of all three upside pitches and will throw his fastball in the low-to-mid 90s. He struck out 75 batters in 93.2 innings.

 

Bobby Wahl, RHP, Ole Miss (6-3, 200)

The Virginia native won nine games with 76 strikeouts in 90.2 innings in the nation’s toughest league. He was No. 2 in the SEC in batting average against with a nasty .189 mark. He uses a solid fastball, upside slider and tricky change-up.

 

Jason Hursh, RHP, Oklahoma State (6-2, 200)

A redshirt sophomore who was a sixth-round pick in 2010 has a fastball that tops out at 97-98 and has an above-average slider. He missed all of last year after Tommy John surgery and will lead the Pokes into the Louisville Regional as a three-seed.

 

Kevin Ziomek, LHP, Vanderbilt (6-3, 190)

Led the best SEC team in history while leading the conference in strikeouts (106) and opponents batting average (.179). He was fourth in innings (105.1), third in wins (10) and posted a 2.05 ERA for the year.

 

Chad Pinder, 3B, Virginia Tech (6-2, 192)

The Hokies were 11th in RPI at season’s end and it earned them a spot as a Regional host. Pinder’s bat is a big reason as he has improved each year and has been above .300 his entire NCAA career. He has the size and athleticism to stick at third.

 

Michael Lorenzen, OF, Cal State Fullerton (6-3, 195)

He has a big arm and defensive skill to stick in center field. He’s been inconsistent at the plate but has led CSF to a national seed (No. 5) and a 48-8 record. He also doubles as a flame-throwing closer for the Titans.

 

Trevor Williams, RHP, Arizona State (6-3, 230)

He began his career in the pen and made the transition to the rotation with relative ease. He will lead the second-seeded Sun Devils into the Cal-State Fullerton Regional this weekend. He works quick and locates but won’t overpower hitters.

 

Kent Emanuel, LHP, North Carolina (6-4, 205)

Earned ACC Pitcher of the Year honors on the nation’s No. 1 team. He doesn’t have elite velocity but he has above-average command and knows how to win.

 

Others to watch:

 

Jared King, OF, Kansas State (5-11, 200)

 

Dillon Overton, LHP, Oklahoma (6-2, 170)

 

Daniel Gibson, LHP, Florida (6-3, 220)

 

Stuart Turner, C, Ole Miss (6-2, 220)

 

Colby Suggs, RHP, Arkansas (6-0, 225)

 

Jimmie Sherfy, RHP, Oregon (6-0, 175)

 

Zane Evans, C, Georgia Tech (6-2, 220)

 

Jacoby Jones, 2B, LSU (6-3, 200)

[narwhalattack]

You know, considering the state of the pitching staff, I'm wondering if the Brewers will attempt to draft another "high-floor quick-to-the-majors types" like when they drafted Jungmann.

[TooLiveBrew]

You know, considering the state of the pitching staff, I'm wondering if the Brewers will attempt to draft another "high-floor quick-to-the-majors types" like when they drafted Jungmann.

http://i.imgur.com/gYIEyXE.gif