The Great Carlos Gomez Debate

[rluzinski]

Whoever bats 7th in this lineup is frequently going to hit with men on. Gomez hasn't had the respect of opposing pitchers to this point, but he's getting there. It will be in their interest to pitch carefully to a guy who can hurt them with the 8th and 9th hitters following. Either they'll continue challenging him (and getting hurt) or they'll start walking him more. That's why I don't worry about walk totals in this case.

 

I don't follow. Walks don't matter in the 7th hole insofar as the batter doesn't have control over it? It is a simply the pitcher's decision to walk him or not?

[adambr2]

I would love to keep Gomez around, but after this year I think the Scott Boras factor is definitely going to come into play. I think they will probably ride out this last year of arbitration with him and then he'll be gone in free agency.

[TooLiveBrew]

With Boras as his agent, might Gomez be a candidate for a qualifying offer after '13? No way I want to pay him ~$13-14M, but I have a really hard time envisioning Boras advising him to accept that. If Gomez replicates or improves on 2012 at the plate next season, he could well be looking at $10M AAV offers.

 

My first choice would be trading Gomez this offseason, but I seriously doubt Melvin will do that.

[logan82]

With Boras as his agent, might Gomez be a candidate for a qualifying offer after '13? No way I want to pay him ~$13-14M, but I have a really hard time envisioning Boras advising him to accept that. If Gomez replicates or improves on 2012 at the plate next season, he could well be looking at $10M AAV offers.

I had a hard time envisioning K-Rod accepting the qualifying offer but that happened.

 

My first choice would be trading Gomez this offseason, but I seriously doubt Melvin will do that.

I would trade Gomez this offseason as well.*

 

 

*all trades subject to a good offer.

[clancyphile]

I would love to keep Gomez around, but after this year I think the Scott Boras factor is definitely going to come into play. I think they will probably ride out this last year of arbitration with him and then he'll be gone in free agency.

 

I'd try to get a good extension offer in now - 6 years, $25 million ($2.5 million in `13, $4.5 million from 2014-2018, team option for 2019 at $5.5 million or a $1 million buyout). The salaries page lists him at just under $2 million.

 

Plus defense, and if he has now hit his prime, and can keep a .750 OPS, he's worth it.

[TooLiveBrew]

If he's a .750 OPS bat, then he's worth way more than that. I don't know for certain, but $5.5M is a number that wouldn't surprise me to see him get in arbitration this season.

 

EDIT: I guess $5.5M is a pretty big jump from the ~$2M he made in '12. Maybe more like $3-4M next season?

[brewtown82]

Gomez is a guy I would absolutely hate to see play for anyone else, but I think this was his best year and I don't know that he can frankly hit well enough to justify a long-term deal. It makes me sad to think he could go, but it would be sadder to lock him up and then not be able to sign a good pitcher.

[clancyphile]

Gomez is a guy I would absolutely hate to see play for anyone else, but I think this was his best year and I don't know that he can frankly hit well enough to justify a long-term deal. It makes me sad to think he could go, but it would be sadder to lock him up and then not be able to sign a good pitcher.

 

My target for a pitcher in free agency is Greinke. His struggles with Anaheim should lower the market some, and he liked Milwaukee. Offer him 6 years/$120 million.

 

But Gomez does a lot, and he may have put it all together. Even a .725 OPS makes him very valuable.

[monty57]

If he's a .750 OPS bat, then he's worth way more than that. I don't know for certain, but $5.5M is a number that wouldn't surprise me to see him get in arbitration this season.

 

EDIT: I guess $5.5M is a pretty big jump from the ~$2M he made in '12. Maybe more like $3-4M next season?

 

I don't know if it's correct, but if endaround was right in his earlier post, and 4th year arby guys get compared with 1st year FA guys, then I could certainly see him getting $5MM+ next year. There's no way (Boras is his agent) that Gomez would take a 6 year / $25MM deal. If he hits 20 HR a season with his defense, I wouldn't be surprised to see someone offer him eight figures a year.

 

Schafer should be a good CF, so I'm fine with letting Gomez play out 2013 and hit free agency. Schafer can be our 4th OF next year, potentially becoming the LH part of a CF platoon if Gomez proves 2012 to be a fluke, and then taking over full-time in 2013. If someone comes knocking with a good trade package, I'd also be fine with Melvin trading Gomez this offseason.

[fondybrewfan]

Grienke had a few bad starts in Anaheim but I think he was generally pretty good. He just started out rough.

 

Just trying to figure out Carlos's vlaue is virtually impossible because he basically did notihng offensively prior to this year. I would hesitate to give him any kind of extension until he does this again early next year; but by then it will be too late to work out an extension anyways.

 

Schafer is a great CF and I think he could be just as valuable as Gomez at far less cost. If it were up to me I would go with Gomex for the start of next year and let Schafer take over in 2014 or even trade deadline 2013.

[bjkrautk]

Gomez doesn't appear to have been more selective (he swung at a higher % of pitches inside and outside the strike zone in comparison to other years), and didn't have a massive increase in batting average / OBP (he doesn't walk often enough for there to be much of a discrepancy between the two).

 

The only thing that appears to have changed is that he's hitting more HRs. Obviously, that's a valuable commodity, and he's gradually increased his HR/FB rate over the past few seasons, so it does not appear to be a fluke.

 

At the same time, he's a player whose already been traded twice in his career based on potential, and may finally be living up to that potential now. The Brewers have a player in Schafer who appears close to ML ready at a fraction of the cost.

 

While I can see both sides, I would lean towards trading him. This is a 'sell high' moment; if you can get a premium for his potential over the next 1-2 seasons, you can avoid signing him for the Marquis Grissom years. (20 HR power, low average, solid defensive CF. For comparison, Grissom was with the Brewers from age 31-33...right around the endpoint for a 5 year extension for Gomez. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=652&position=OF ). If they do not like what's available on the market, they can certainly hold onto him for another season and go from there.

[TooLiveBrew]

Grienke had a few bad starts in Anaheim but I think he was generally pretty good. He just started out rough.

Yep. 3.44 ERA with MIL, 3.53 ERA with LAA

[xisxisxis]

Grienke had a few bad starts in Anaheim but I think he was generally pretty good. He just started out rough.

 

You could replace anaheim with milwaukee and have an equally accurate statement....

[Warning Track Power]

Let's say Gomez goes out in 2013 and replicates his 2012 slash of .260/.310/.770 and with the 150+ more PAs goes for something like 25 HRs, 65 RBI & 40 SB. What kind of contract would you be willing to give him? Would you go 5 years $35 or $40 million? I know we have Schafer but I love Gomez and I think the budget is there to pay him if he proves to be the player he was towards the end of 2012. It will be an interesting decision given Hart and Gomez both reaching FA at the same and Aoki's team option after 2013.

[jerichoholicninja]

If Gomez puts up the season you describe he's going to get much more than that. 10 million per at least, probably much more.

[MJLiverock]

Projected Arbitration #s from MLBTraderumors.com

Brewers (9)

 

John Axford - $5.1MM

Carlos Gomez - $3.4MM

Nyjer Morgan - $2.6MM

Jose Veras - $2.6MM

Kameron Loe - $2.6MM

Manny Parra - $1.6MM

Marco Estrada - $1.6MM

Travis Ishikawa - $900K

Chris Narveson - $800K

 

Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2013.html#SVC6OJ3JhEvrkRee.99

 

Also saw a note that Marcum, Gonzalez, and KRod have elected Free Agency.

[RobDeer 45]

Maybe this was stated, but I feel like some team will pay for Gomez's "potential" and not for what he's done so far. I just think he will be a tough guy to sign because of that.

[Warning Track Power]

Maybe this was stated, but I feel like some team will pay for Gomez's "potential" and not for what he's done so far. I just think he will be a tough guy to sign because of that.

 

Not to rehash the Hardy-Gomez deal but I honestly believe this is what the Brewers did by selling low on Hardy. We just paid in a player rather than in a contract and dollars.

 

More to the point though, I think if Gomez replicates 2012 in 2013 he most likely will be gone. Which is unfortunate on so many levels on the field (speed & defense specifically) but also because he is very enjoyable to watch because of the max effort he gives all the time. He quickly became one of my favorite Brewers.

[paul253]

I am agreement with RobDeer in that people are still looking more at his potential than his production. Let's face it, his "breakout year" still consisted of a .260 batting average and .305 OBP. .305 OBP is awful. Yes 19 home runs and 37 steals is good which is why I'd love to keep him. But I wouldn't offer him anything more than 3 years and $12 million. On opening day 2013 he'll be 27 years old. While that is certainly not old it's not exactly young either. If it's taken him this long just to get up to .260/.305/.768 I just wonder how much better he's actually going to get.

[Warning Track Power]

If Gomez would take the Bill Hall deal (4 years $24 million), I'd strongly consider it. Considering he just made $1.96 million in 2012, he may be apt to take it. $6 million/year is a risk but I think Gomez might be worth the risk even if he is at his peak right now.

[MJLiverock]

Gomez's wOBA at .329 puts him right in the middle of CFers with 450 plate appearances in baseball last year. Once source lists .320 as an average wOBA player and .340 as above average. Gomez looks about average offensively and is above average defensively, I'll take that production. They can keep Logan S. as the 4th guy and working him as a soft platoon with Gomez next year and re evaluate as the season plays out. I definitely don't want to jettison Gomez at this point to just hand over the starting CF to Logan S. right away leaving no back up plan for a rookie who has had injury problems.

[TooLiveBrew]

I like the idea of having Gomez play out his contract while getting Schafer some good big-league action, and then transitioning to Schafer as the CF in 2014 (possibly platooning him).

[logan82]

The problem is we don't know if Gomez can keep up his power numbers. His plate discipline hasn't really changed much. I don't feel very confident he can maintain his production at the plate. I would keep him around through net year but don't see him as a guy you offer a longer deal to. I think one team will like his possible upside and sign him for more than we should pay him.

[monty57]

I definitely don't want to jettison Gomez at this point to just hand over the starting CF to Logan S. right away leaving no back up plan for a rookie who has had injury problems.

 

I tend to agree, but there's always the caveat that someone may call Melvin with a ridiculous trade offer. If that happens, I hope Melvin makes the trade. I'd say the "backup plan" to Schafer in CF would be moving Aoki to CF. If we were to trade Gomez, I'd hope Melvin would find a veteran RH corner OF as a bench bat, and he and Gamel could platoon in RF if Schafer gets hurt and Aoki moved to CF.

 

Otherwise, I agree with Logan82 that Schafer can "get his feet wet" as the 4th OF in 2013, possibly becoming a CF platoon as the season progresses, with the plan of allowing him to take over CF full-time in 2014

[Bikeage77]

based on the fact that there's gonna be a Gomez bobblehead this year leads me to believe that it's his job to lose.