The Great Carlos Gomez Debate

[Funketown]

H&T - My understanding is that players peak a few years earlier defensively than offensively. It's really not unreasonable to think that at the back end of a 4-year deal, Gomez will no longer be an elite defensive CF, although I imagine he'll still be good.

 

Shane Victorino is the oldest of the qualified MLB CF'ers right now, and he's only 31. It wouldn't surprise me if CF'ers had he youngest defensive peak of any position, though I don't know if anybody has ever really looked into that.

[igor67]

One thing to keep in mind about Range Factor is that it is heavily dependent on pitching staff. The Brewers pitchers have the highest strikeout total which eats into chances in a big way (slightly off topic but the high Ks, middle of the road BBs, and high hit total suggest the staff has some serious bounce back coming next year). MLB.com lists totals so this is much easier than I thought. Brewers rank 25th in total air outs. The high K-rate really cuts into opportunities for Range Factor. The point about defensive aging though is worth remembering. Andruw Jones is a good example his days as an other worldly CFer were done by his late 20's. He was still good, but not lapping the field. He could explode offensively, but I'd say the bulk of the evidence suggests his total value will be pretty similar over the next couple of years. And given the internal depth, Gomez is the kind of player you just go year to year with to maintain the flexibility to swap out for a cheaper option if you want to reallocate resources.

[trwi7]

Can we all agree now that it was just a hot streak?

[Funketown]

Can we all agree now that it was just a hot streak?

 

[sarcasm]I disagree. It was an average streak in the midst of a six year long cold streak.[/sarcasm]

[TURBO]

Range Factor is 13th at 2.45.

 

 

If you are telling me there are 12 center fielders with better range than Gomez, I put zero stock into that stat.

 

Some of the numbers and stats that are brought up here are just poppycock in my opinion.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Range factor is honestly about the worst defensive metric out there. All it does is measure how many balls a guy touches per nine innings. The Brewers pitchers strike out a ton of batters, so that will limit the number of touches the defense can get. Range factor is a horribly flawed stat. Using that to judge a guy's range is terrible.

[rluzinski]

Range Factor is 13th at 2.45.

 

 

If you are telling me there are 12 center fielders with better range than Gomez, I put zero stock into that stat.

 

Some of the numbers and stats that are brought up here are just poppycock in my opinion.

 

Range Factor is in now way a "Sabermetric" stat, so please don't try to lump it in with any advanced metrics.

[JohnBriggs12]

Range factor is honestly about the worst defensive metric out there. All it does is measure how many balls a guy touches per nine innings. The Brewers pitchers strike out a ton of batters, so that will limit the number of touches the defense can get. Range factor is a horribly flawed stat. Using that to judge a guy's range is terrible.

 

You bring up a good point. The Brewers staff strikes out a lot of hitters, and that makes defense itself less critical. In fact strikeouts are so frequent these days in general compared to 30 or 40 years ago, that the value of having good defense, while still important, isn't what it once was.

[splitterpfj]

I think Carlos has played himself into the starting job for next season.

[jerichoholicninja]

I think Carlos has played himself into the starting job for next season.

 

I think most would agree with that but he I don't think he's played himself into an extension.

[BrewerTerp]

Career highs in:

 

HR: 19 (previous was 8)

AVG: .260 (.258)

OBP: .303 (.296)

SLG: .464 (.403)

SB: 37 (33)

 

His sabers even more impressive:

wRC+: 114 (91)

wOBA: .342 (.307)

 

And a BAPIP of .295 suggests he was even a bit unlucky. Tremendous improvement across the board. If ONLY he walked more.

 

I really think we should make a small extension offer. I believe he has a lot left to show us and I'd love to have him as a Brewer from age 27-30.

[SenatorShriv]

Love seeing the improvement. I want him slated as starting CF, but I expect / hope for a bit more improvement in the coming year and will be a bit dissapointed if he doesn't improve on this season.

[Invader3K]

I don't know...Logan Schaefer looked pretty solid this season (granted it was a small sample at the MLB level).

[JohnBriggs12]

"If ONLY he walked more"

 

Well his splits suggest he did try to be a little more patient in the 2 hole (1 walk every 16.8 PA) than he did hitting 7th (1 walk every 52.3 PA). He also hit a lot better in the 7 hole: .320/.346/.567.

 

Lesson? Let Carlos be Carlos. Walks in the 7th spot aren't that important. Gomez has a power/speed combo that few have. He's not ever going to walk much. Even if he does become more patient, teams do not want to walk him as it's like giving up a double.

 

As to Invader3K's point about Schafer, I'm sure he earned the 4th OF spot with his play. They'll find him plenty of AB's.

[Outlander]

At this point I would be fine with a contract extension but doubt he takes it. I like that he looks like more than a platoon player as his splits between right/left are fairly even.

[pogokat]

if he puts up a full season like the one he just did next year, he's going to get 10 million a year...the gap between gomez and bj upton is narrow...i suspect 2013 will be the last we see of him in milwaukee

[fondybrewfan]

And that is probably fine. I think Schafer is more than capable of playing CF in a full time roll starting in 2014. Excellent defender and should be good enough with the bat to Fill Gomez's spot at #7/#8.

 

I am sure we can find a RH platoon if we need one. I like Gomez; but I would have no interest in breaking the bank to keep him.

[wisniewski]

I don't know...Logan Schaefer looked pretty solid this season (granted it was a small sample at the MLB level).

 

What struck me about Logan Schaefer is that down the stretch he seemed to always come up with some kind of clutch pinch hit in big spots. Not sure how I can go back and quantify that, but that is my perception. As if he performed better in PH than he did starting.

 

As for Gomez...he became one of my favorite players this year. Easily one of my top 3 favorite players on the team. I know he does a lot of frustrating things at the plate, but I can't say enough about his growth this year. I couldn't agree more with the post above 'let Carlos be Carlos'.

 

All that said, unfortunately I have to agree that 2013 is most likely his last year with the Brewers. And that stinks. I would love to see him locked up to an extension but I doubt that happens.

[rluzinski]

Gomez has always had a boat load of defensive value, so the fact that he added some nice pop this year and at least kept his OBP above.300 adds up to a very nice year. But unless he's willing to sign for a below market deal (and why would he?) I think the Brewers will just move on after next year.

 

Two other points:

 

1. Even with a high strike out team, defense is still very important.

 

2. Walks still matter at the bottom of the order.

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't know...Logan Schaefer looked pretty solid this season (granted it was a small sample at the MLB level).

 

What struck me about Logan Schaefer is that down the stretch he seemed to always come up with some kind of clutch pinch hit in big spots. Not sure how I can go back and quantify that, but that is my perception. As if he performed better in PH than he did starting.

The stats definitely back up your memory, even though they're tiny samples: Schafer's BB-Ref. 2012 splits page

 

as Starter (10 PA): .300/.300/.600/.900

as PH (9 PA): .500/.444/.750/1.194

 

--Leverage--

High (6 PA): 1.167 OPS

Med. (7 PA): .762

Low (12 PA): .705

[wisniewski]

I don't know...Logan Schaefer looked pretty solid this season (granted it was a small sample at the MLB level).

 

What struck me about Logan Schaefer is that down the stretch he seemed to always come up with some kind of clutch pinch hit in big spots. Not sure how I can go back and quantify that, but that is my perception. As if he performed better in PH than he did starting.

The stats definitely back up your memory, even though they're tiny samples: Schafer's BB-Ref. 2012 splits page

 

as Starter (10 PA): .300/.300/.600/.900

as PH (9 PA): .500/.444/.750/1.194

 

--Leverage--

High (6 PA): 1.167 OPS

Med. (7 PA): .762

Low (12 PA): .705

 

Wow - thanks for posting this TLB. Great stuff. Agreed that it's a small sample size, but it's really interesting to see the comparisons.

[Ennder]

His season was driven almost completely by the bump in HR so the question is really whether he can repeat that or not. None of his secondary stats showed any significant improvement which would make me feel a lot better about his year. Take away 4 or 5 HR and he is more or less exactly at his career line. So is he really a 25+ HR guy year in and year out if he plays full time or not? I don't have the answer to that question. His defense probably keeps him as a positive value regardless, but if he goes back to the career line it isn't a very high value.

[RockCoCougars]

I'm a big fan of his defense/speed and he certainly outperformed most expectations at the plate as well. The problem is that Boras is his agent, and I really don't think that it's in the Brewers best interests to even talk with Boras clients. It follows that I'd look at selling high this winter if the price is right.

[endaround]

So he's a 4th year arby player which means that 1st year FA can be in his comparison pool correct? And will the insane contracts that CFers Bourne and Hamitlon are certain to sign matter for this year's arby cases?

[JohnBriggs12]

Gomez has always had a boat load of defensive value, so the fact that he added some nice pop this year and at least kept his OBP above.300 adds up to a very nice year. But unless he's willing to sign for a below market deal (and why would he?) I think the Brewers will just move on after next year.

 

Two other points:

 

1. Even with a high strike out team, defense is still very important.

 

2. Walks still matter at the bottom of the order.

 

Whoever bats 7th in this lineup is frequently going to hit with men on. Gomez hasn't had the respect of opposing pitchers to this point, but he's getting there. It will be in their interest to pitch carefully to a guy who can hurt them with the 8th and 9th hitters following. Either they'll continue challenging him (and getting hurt) or they'll start walking him more. That's why I don't worry about walk totals in this case.

 

Gomez brings power, speed and an energy that helps this team.