The Great Carlos Gomez Debate

[adambr2]

Weeks hasn't been the problem this year.

[jjfanec]

Good thing we have Weeks signed through 2014

 

Considering he has an OPS of .861 the second half of the year I am fairly happy he is with us going forward.

[BoxedWineWarrior]

Good thing we have Weeks signed through 2014

 

Considering he has an OPS of .861 the second half of the year I am fairly happy he is with us going forward.

 

BUT HE'S HITTING .219!

 

I'll be more curious to see how Gomez finishes 2012. It appears he's been given the chance to win the job outright for 2013.

[Invader3K]

Good thing we have Weeks signed through 2014

 

Ugh...the sarcasm in most of your posts seems to be really misdirected.

[TURBO]

Weeks hasn't been the problem this year.

 

Actually, until he recently figured out how to hit again, yes, he was part of our problem this year...

[reillymcshane]

I don't think Gomez is ever really going to change. He is what he is. He's a .250 BA, .300 OBP guy with great defense. The main reason his numbers are better is a recent power surge. Can he sustain that? I don't know, but I think six weeks of nice play is premature to be talking extension. Plus we're talking Boros, who rarely gives discounts, and almost always pushes his players to the open market. So it's unlikely Gomez will be with the team beyond 2013 - even if you want him.

 

I'd hope Carlos plays well the rest of 2012, then see if he can fetch something decent on the trade market while his value is high.

 

I'd then role the dice with Schafer in CF for 2013. Maybe pick up a cheap veteran to play against lefties.

 

I like Carlos. But I think it's too risky to extend him for big dollars. And the ability to get a reasonable extension is iffy with Boros as his agent. So move him while he has value.

[HiAndTight]

I think it is a fluke but I also can't ignore his second half stats. I would give him the starting job the rest of the year and see how it looks in October.

 

 

I really liked the way Gomez LOOKED early in the season, stats aside, he looked like a guy who figured it out a little bit, and had come to the realization that he needed to take more pitches, layoff the slider, and get into better hitters counts. That was not even counting the stats. Ender I believe or Endaround, not sure, but came on and supported that by saying he was swinging a fewer balls out of the zone and taking more pitches.

 

I didn't look it up then, and I don't want to now because I just want to watch how he's performing rather than go by stats as they can always be mis-leading.

 

THAT SAID, at the time he was hitting about .280/.330 and had a SLG around .450 or so, and his OPS was near .800.

 

Then after he came back from injury, he had a awful June posting a line of .188/.254/.359 with a .613 OPS....but within that, he was severely limited. He lost a lot of IF singles which he's always going to have to get in order to hit for any type of power, and he lost a great deal of range defensively. Fangraphs actually had him as a negative defender.

 

But, the last couple months, he's been back hitting the way he did earlier in the year. He's put up a OPS of over .800 vs RH'ed pitchers this year suggesting he MAY not need to be a platoon player.

 

In 2008 when he was 22 years old, he had a 2.6 WAR season playing 153 games. That year he had a .335 BABIP which I think when healthy may be a touch high, but is close to what he should be able to maintain.

 

This year he has a .295 BABIP, we know he's a great defender, he's STILL just 26 years old(which for all the Fiers fans out there, he's younger than Fiers) and even with that injury riddled June when his Hammy was in rough shape, he still came back and has put together a very good season line in just 91 games.

 

Again, .810 or so OPS vs RH'ers

.800 OPS in the last full year(365 days)

.781 OPS this year with 11 HR's and 21 SB's.

 

 

If he plays a full season, I think he's very capable of putting together a .800+ season with 15-20 HR's, 40 SB's and great defense in CF.

He may hit just .270/.315, but that's still MORE than serviceable.

[monty57]

If he plays a full season, I think he's very capable of putting together a .800+ season with 15-20 HR's, 40 SB's and great defense in CF.

He may hit just .270/.315, but that's still MORE than serviceable.

 

The question is what to do with him. I think we should start him everyday going forward. I wish we'd be able to move Morgan for a reliever who could help us next year. But, will we have any kind of a clear picture going forward with Gomez?

 

He'll be in his final (4th) year of arby next season, and his play this year will probably mean the Brewers will hold onto him and pay him $3-4MM next year. Boras is his agent, so he probably won't sign an extension. If he gets everyday starting duty next year and tears the cover off the ball, he'll have priced himself into an eight-figure salary, which I don't want the Brewers to commit. If he stinks, and ends up as the RH part of a platoon with Schafer, then I wouldn't want to guarantee him a multi-year deal. If he's up-and-down like he has been his whole career, then we're in the same situation teams have always been on Gomez... he has a lot of talent, but is he ever going to "get it?"

 

Once the pre-arby/arby years are done, teams are going to have to guarantee money in order to get their answer. Is it worth paying him like an .800 OPS, elite defense CF when he could just be "serviceable," or if he could dive back into a sub-.300 OBP season?

 

So, if he is likely unwilling (Boras is agent) to sign an extension, what is in the best interest of the Brewers? Should they try to trade him this offseason and give the starting job to Schafer, should they offer him arby and trade him next season, should they offer him arby and let him walk next offseason, or should they offer him arby and try to sign him to a market deal next offseason?

[jerichoholicninja]

Trade him this offseason. His hot finish will convince some GM to think he's "figured it out" and will pay for it. Even if he has figured it out he's not resigning here. Not with Boras.

[Fear The Chorizo]

The best interest of the Brewers would be to offer him arby this offseason and go into 2013 with him being the everyday center fielder with a player like Schafer as the reserve CF - not a strict righty/lefty platoon, but giving Gomez around 75% of the starts (always against a lefty starter and some days against righties). If Gomez falls on his face offensively, you'd go back to a strict platoon. If Schafer falls on his face you have the option of using Aoki in center and putting one of several options into RF (Hart, Davis, Gamel?).

 

Gomez hasn't shown that he's worth a long term commitment by the Brewers, but he's shown enough this season to play almost everyday to see what happens. Even if he's struggling offensively in 2013 he'd have trade value at the deadline if the Brewers want to move him to a team looking for a bench upgrade (OF defense, pinch runner for a contender). If he ends up pricing himself out of Milwaukee, so be it. I just don't think it's worth the risk to give him bigtime money in a longterm deal prior to him reaching free agency.

[rluzinski]

I don't think Gomez is going to get much in a trade even if a GM thinks that he's arrived. They are only trading for one season of Gomez.

 

Weeks hasn't been the problem this year.

 

Actually, until he recently figured out how to hit again, yes, he was part of our problem this year...

 

By that definition, every batter has been part of the problem at least 60% of the time. The point is that while Weeks' aggregate stats aren't up to his standards, they aren't bad either.

[endaround]

I don't think Gomez is going to get much in a trade even if a GM thinks that he's arrived. They are only trading for one season of Gomez.

 

 

Except he'll cost less than $3m and the FA position player market is dismal. If Morgan is non-tendered he would arguably be in the top 5 free agents.

[Ennder]

If you don't do it for at least 2 full seasons it most likely isn't for real. History has proved that.

[RobDeer 45]

I like the kids fire, hustle, speed, defense. I think he's on a hot streak, which maybe he'll go on more often. But it really doesn't change my expectations for how he'll hit. Maybe a slight bump in overall batting stats but he is who he is. I like him for that and always see value in him. Just not sure what the correct pay is for that. I want him on the team, would love to see him in a starting role this year, but don't think he's a guy we should over spend on. He's the perfect 3rd/4th outfielder.

[pacopete4]

Hard to shake a bad rep for hitting after doing it for about 5 years but that's what happens sometimes when brought up too soon. If there's one guy who could fight that rep and succeed its Gomez. Guys got miles and miles of heart. Sign him.

[HiAndTight]

It's probably worth noting that at age 27, Gomez' defense will only get worse from here on out. I imagine he'll age fairly well though given his athleticism.

 

 

No, I don't think that's worth noting in the least bit. Since when does a players athletic ability decline at age 27? You do realize that's generally considered the age a player peaks, correct? He's 26 right now, is honestly IMO the best defensive CF'er in the NL(I'd have to watch more of Trout and some others in the AL on a regular basis).

 

But if he can play great defense and slug .780 which I think is about where he'll be for the next 4-5 years. I'd throw out a 4 year 16 million dollar deal right now...and if he takes it, great, if he passes, we're not at that point where we're going to lose him next year anyway, and I don't see many teams giving him a whole lot when he does eventually come a FA which isn't for two years anyway.

 

 

 

Again, it's just amazing the turnaround I've personally had on him. I thought when he got here, maybe a change would benefit him, then I watched him and just didn't think very highly of his baseball intellect, or plate discipline, and now I see a guy who makes mistakes, but usually aggressive mistakes, runs down balls in the OF that Morgan can't come close to, and is hitting for some power and a good ENOUGH BA that it drives his OBP high enough that I think you can plug him into the 7th spot and you'll be just fine. And when you look at next years likely lineup...which much to my dismay likely won't include Gamel, will have a very good 1-6 with Aoki, Weeks, Braun, Aram, Hart and Lucroy, you'll have enough OBP guys ahead of him that his power will help. The only problem with that, is you're taking a young SS in Segura who's much more important to our development and who has some similar issues as Gomez and sliding him into the 8 hole which I don't think is good for HIS development.

 

But again, just watching him, not looking at his advanced metrics, I see a guy working the count better and becoming a better pure hitter. And this part is a broken record, but I think his BABIP would be closer to .310 or so than .295(which is what it was last time I looked) if he hadn't hurt his hamstring. I think that cost him not only during a period in which he was very hot, but when he came back, I think there where several times he could have beating one out but had to pull up to play it safe.

 

Though the same could be said for Braun...of course I don't think anyone is questioning if Braun should be the Brewers long term LF'er. Although.....[sarcasm]I bet we could get Profar for him!![/sarcasm] The Rangers offense would probably pretty good in that scenario....Braun, Hammilton, Cruz, Beltre, Andrus, Kinsler, Olt, Young and Napoli.....

 

Side note, I do think that'd be an interesting discussion on what it'd take to trade Braun, but since it'd never happen, and it'd just be an interesting discussion, I think the vitriol that'd come my way wouldn't be worth it.

[HiAndTight]

Good thing we have Weeks signed through 2014

 

Considering he has an OPS of .861 the second half of the year I am fairly happy he is with us going forward.

 

BUT HE'S HITTING .219!

 

I'll be more curious to see how Gomez finishes 2012. It appears he's been given the chance to win the job outright for 2013.

 

 

 

Yeah, as will I. I think with Gomez, it's a huge mental battle as much as anything(although in truth, he's always seemed supremely confident). Weeks just doesn't let anything bother him, so I think going into next year a strong finish will give Weeks more confidence and he won't be pressing as much, but I don't think it'd change too much.

 

If Gomez can finish this year, go into next year as THE starting CF'er and be coming off a .785 OPS or so, I think that could be just a stepping stone.

 

And again, he's hit RH'ers well this year, so I'm not so sure that a platoon is even necessary.

[AJOHNSON104]

As of today, based on the 30 guys in MLB who have 250 plate appearances in CF, Gomez has the following rankings:

BA - 17 at .256

OBP - 22 at .306

SLG - 9 at .462

OPS - 11 at .768

SB - T7 with 22

OWAR - 18 at 1.1

 

Of the 21 qualifying CF in defense:

DWAR - 7th at .4

Range Factor is 13th at 2.45.

 

So overall, he's middle the pack or higher depending on what you think is important.

[FVBrewerFan]

Thanks for taking the time to do that. I'll ignore the defensive metrics, I'm stubborn that way. 11th in OPS out of 30 CFs, so roughly he's in the top 3rd of CFs offensively, and plays a great defensive CF. Not too bad at all, and far from a major need. As with everyone else on the roster, I'm fine if he's traded depending on what you get in return. But I would be perfectly comfortable if he was the starting CF next April.

[thebruce44]

It's probably worth noting that at age 27, Gomez' defense will only get worse from here on out. I imagine he'll age fairly well though given his athleticism.

 

No, I don't think that's worth noting in the least bit. Since when does a players athletic ability decline at age 27? You do realize that's generally considered the age a player peaks, correct?

 

Hmm...If a player's athletic ability peaks at 27, wouldn't that mean is defense would likely decline from there? I think we are just splitting hairs here saying he is 26. The point is that if you signed him for a long term contract based on his defense it is likely to get worse as the deal goes on. Obvious, but probably worth noting due to the position he plays and how important his defense is to his overall game.

[logan82]

As of today, based on the 30 guys in MLB who have 250 plate appearances in CF, Gomez has the following rankings:

BA - 17 at .256

OBP - 22 at .306

SLG - 9 at .462

OPS - 11 at .768

SB - T7 with 22

OWAR - 18 at 1.1

 

Of the 21 qualifying CF in defense:

DWAR - 7th at .4

Range Factor is 13th at 2.45.

 

So overall, he's middle the pack or higher depending on what you think is important.

I would mostly ignore all of those stats except OBP, SLG and OPS. I would only use BA if comparing it to OBP or SLG to give me some idea about how a player gets his value. The problem Gomez' OPS is that it is a SLG heavy OPS. One point of OBP is worth about 1.7-2 points of SLG depending on what you read. I don't like Range Factor at all. Playing behind flyball or ground ball pitchers will influence it.

 

I prefer wOBA for offense as the quickest stat. I use multiple years of DRS, UZR and watching a player to get a feel for their defense.

 

Again, the only real objection to Gomez starting is batting him in the top of the order.

[HiAndTight]

Sell high on Gomez this offseason. As has been noted many times in this thread & elsewhere, Gomez is a Boras client, and Boras clients don't sign reasonable contract extensions. Find a GM (or two or three) that is sold on his bat in the offseason, & flip him for the best return.

 

If Boras wasn't his agent, I'd be all about a 4/$30-ish type contract extension.

 

 

Seriously? I'd consider half that. I think that's an outrageous amount...I don't see him getting nearly 8 million per, and I certainly don't think he'd turn it down if it wasn't for Scott Boras. I doubt even Boras could pull that Rabbit out of his hat.

[HiAndTight]

As of today, based on the 30 guys in MLB who have 250 plate appearances in CF, Gomez has the following rankings:

BA - 17 at .256

OBP - 22 at .306

SLG - 9 at .462

OPS - 11 at .768

SB - T7 with 22

OWAR - 18 at 1.1

 

Of the 21 qualifying CF in defense:

DWAR - 7th at .4

Range Factor is 13th at 2.45.

 

So overall, he's middle the pack or higher depending on what you think is important.

I would mostly ignore all of those stats except OBP, SLG and OPS. I would only use BA if comparing it to OBP or SLG to give me some idea about how a player gets his value. The problem Gomez' OPS is that it is a SLG heavy OPS. One point of OBP is worth about 1.7-2 points of SLG depending on what you read. I don't like Range Factor at all. Playing behind flyball or ground ball pitchers will influence it.

 

I prefer wOBA for offense as the quickest stat. I use multiple years of DRS, UZR and watching a player to get a feel for their defense.

 

Again, the only real objection to Gomez starting is batting him in the top of the order.

 

 

I agree. I would especially like to see the 12 guys who's Range Factor is better than Gomez. Without seeing the list, I'm guessing there are several I don't think would honestly compare to Gomez.

[HiAndTight]

It's probably worth noting that at age 27, Gomez' defense will only get worse from here on out. I imagine he'll age fairly well though given his athleticism.

 

No, I don't think that's worth noting in the least bit. Since when does a players athletic ability decline at age 27? You do realize that's generally considered the age a player peaks, correct?

 

Hmm...If a player's athletic ability peaks at 27, wouldn't that mean is defense would likely decline from there? I think we are just splitting hairs here saying he is 26. The point is that if you signed him for a long term contract based on his defense it is likely to get worse as the deal goes on. Obvious, but probably worth noting due to the position he plays and how important his defense is to his overall game.

 

 

 

Not sure if you're serious here or not. Perhaps I worded it wrong. A players peak years usually START at age 27(something you-yourself have stated repeatedly). Perhaps it's your dislike of Gomez that has you nitpicking such a ridiculous topic, but no, I don't think that you can assume that his defense will decline next year when he's 27 years old. And by the way, how on Earth are we splitting hairs that he's 26? He's 26. That is his age. It's the day you were both, a measurement of time. Splitting hairs is arguing that he's peaked defensively and that he's "only going to get worse," from here on out.

 

No, I don't think it's a given that he will be any worse when he's 27 years old, 28 years old, 29 years old, 30 years old, 31 years old....

 

 

In fact, you've gone into some depth to argue what years where players peak years starting they where generally 27-32.

 

So...again, I don't think it's worth bringing up that his defense is going to start to decline at the age of 27. In fact it's just as likely that he'll peak at age 27 and continue to perform at that level for the next 5 years. Still scratching my head as to how we're splitting hairs that he's 26. 12/54/85 is his birthday. Makes him 26. He'll be 27 next year the entire year. What hair's being split?

 

 

 

 

The only thing that "hairs are being split over," is if you like Gomez you're going to argue that he's going to start to decline at age 27 despite arguing that is just the beginning of a players peak years-for several years.

[rluzinski]

Statistical studies suggest that players peak around 27 OFFENSIVELY. Other studies suggest that defensive peaks occur very early in a player's career. I don't know how steep the average decline is though.