The Great Carlos Gomez Debate

[derflotr]

If Boras wasn't his agent, I'd be all about a 4/$30-ish type contract extension.

I find it unlikely even Scott Boras could get Gomez a deal like that. Guy's not even a proven full-time player.

 

I certainly don't think he's "arrived", but the Brewer fan in me wants him in this uniform for the rest of his career. He's just damn fun, whether he's hot and starting, or not and part-timing. I obviously realize roster spots aren't guaranteed for "fun" players, but the part of me that enjoys the entertainment of baseball can't help but hope he stays long-term.

[DHonks]

I'd commit to Gomez if at around $4 million a year. But I would probably choose to play a combination of Aoki, Schafer, and Gamel in RF and CF next year (Gamel in RF, DH, some 1b). I'd love for Gindl to be the 5th OF (although I think better offense than Schafer), except that'd be 4 lefties. Morgan and Gomez are okay players, but we have cheaper alternatives that can produce as well

[TooLiveBrew]

If Boras wasn't his agent, I'd be all about a 4/$30-ish type contract extension.

I find it unlikely even Scott Boras could get Gomez a deal like that. Guy's not even a proven full-time player.

Ahh, yes. My least favorite term once again rears its ugly head. I 'get' it here, I 'get' it whenever it's mentioned, but I still hate it.

 

Maybe I should've just gone with the 4/$25M idea that others have floated in this thread -- that didn't seem to throw anyone. I feel like 4/$30M is a little closer to what might realistically get something done, sans Boras... I realize that's a little nit-picky on my part.

 

I just feel like with how FA spending has exploded, Gomez turning himself into the mid-700s OPS player everyone hoped he would (yes, that's my belief) means he's going to be looking at some serious interest once he hits the FA market. I think $6-8M per year for a guy like that, with obviously elite defense, is a good deal.

[ELCABALLO45]

Casey McGehee June 2012:

.291/.360/.532

 

Casey McGehee was never the prospect Carlos Gomez was.

 

Gomez in the 2nd half before today..

 

.296/.363/.549/.912

 

Gomez was rushed to the majors too soon. Labeled a bust and has not gotten consistent at bats since 2008 when he was 22.

 

Play him everyday, bat him 8th. Enjoy. Repeat.

[logan82]

Also, his plate discipline has improved. I doubt many realize that he strikes out at the same rate (19.6%) as Ryan Braun in 2012. His walk rate will likely never come around, but it won't matter as much if keeps slugging the ball rather than trying to be a contact hitter/speedster that everyone wants him to be.

The strikeouts were never the problem. The walk rate was and still is the problem. If his walk rate never comes around it points to him not improving his plate discipline. I hope his increase in OBP is him learning how to hit better. If he can hit like he has this year he provides a lot of value. Unfortunately he is still not a top of the order hitter.

[JohnBriggs12]

I disagree with those that want to bat him 8th. One reason he's breaking out is that he's hitting in front of Braun. His numbers in the 2 hole are .277/.333/.511. His career numbers batting 2nd are also above his career numbers (.260/.300/.436 vs. .245/.293/.373) If you hit him 8th, he'll likely revert to a .230 hitter with less power. Furthermore, you hit him 8th and he gets on with less than 2 outs, what happens? The pitcher bunts. His base stealing ability is wasted in that scenario. He's a guy that even with Braun up, his steal percentage is such that it's not that big a risk to run him.

 

True there are guys who could hit 2nd who might get on base a little more often, but those are guys who'd likely put up the same numbers anywhere. Gomez is a guy who benefits the most in that spot and his ability to disrupt pitchers when he's on, is a valuable asset.

[rluzinski]

Gomez is having the best offensive year of his career and still only has a .309 OBP. he projects to be a .300/.420 kind of guy going forward. I don't understand why you would bat that at 1 or 2 in the order. I see that playing well enough at #6 against lefties and #7/#8 against righties.

 

I disagree with those that want to bat him 8th. One reason he's breaking out is that he's hitting in front of Braun. His numbers in the 2 hole are .277/.333/.511... If you hit him 8th, he'll likely revert to a .230 hitter with less power.

 

He has better numbers batting 7th this year than 2nd. It should be obvious to anyone that can look up seasonal splits that Gomez is likely to continue to excel in that spot, based on the results of his 23 PA there this year.

[monty57]

If someone offers a huge return, trade him this offseason. That probably won't happen, so I'm fine with both Gomez and Schafer on the roster next year. Both will help the team, as Schafer's MLB ready, Gomez will be worth the $3MM or so he'll be paid (even if he fails to hit) and Morgan's likely to be non-tendered.

 

Maybe Gomez would be a good deal at 4/$25, but Schafer would make about 4/$2.5 over the same time frame, and there's a good arguement to be made that he'll be more valueable. Gomez has played his role well in his time here, but he's not a "core" player, so I hope we move on when his contract's up.

 

Either way, I'm glad he's playing every day now. We can see if he's finally "got it," and we can build up his value in case someone wants to bowl Melvin over with a trade offer. I just wish that he & Weeks would swap places in the batting order.

[MJLiverock]

I think Gomez should definitely be in the mix for CF next year. He is never going to be Matt Kemp out there but he provides great defense, is still young, has shown some improvement and someone has to play the position.

 

I really don't see Schafer putting up numbers any better than what Gomez is doing this season. Schafer doesn't walk a lot either, he is probably going to add about 50 points to his BA for a OBP of .310-.320 while being not quite as good defensively and he just can't seem to stay healthy playing everyday. Additionally Gomez is only 9 months older than Schaeer. I imagine if Gomez had been playing the minors all this time he would still be labeled some untouchable prospect and some would be salivating over him. An outfield of Braun, Gomez, Aoki, Schafer, and some split of Hart/Gamel working in seems balanced and provides some decent bench depth.

[slappzilla]

Gomez was rushed to the majors too soon. Labeled a bust and has not gotten consistent at bats since 2008 when he was 22.

 

Play him everyday, bat him 8th. Enjoy. Repeat.

I was going to say give him regular AB's rest of the year and see what happens. No reason not too. If he keeps it up, staple him in the forecast for next year. If the Brewers contend, great, if not, and he's got numbers before the trade deadline next year, maybe the Brewers could get some sort of return for him. I don't think they could get a return for him now. Maybe in the offseason if he keeps it up, but come the deadline next year, maybe him and Hart could draw some interest and a decent return.

 

I wouldn't want to sign Gomez to a multi-year deal though, and not just because of the Boras factor (that's decent reason though). He's still an overall knucklehead to me. That HR he hit yesterday barely went over the wall, and Gomez started jogging and caddilacing before the ball even left the park. Usually he's doing his full blown sprint, but yesterday he didn't and that was one instance where he actually should have been. In my mind he still does things like that that bother me on the base paths. He's touted as an unbelievable fielder no matter what, but I've seen him botch his fair share of fly balls too on bad judgement. Let someone else overpay for him, get the most you can out of him and maybe move him for a piece for the future if you can.

[igor67]

The biggest reason not to extend him is that while I think he is rounding into a pretty good starter, he does not look like he is going to become an awesome player (tools not with standing). He has a relatively high risk of becoming a marginal player over night, and has some potential to become an All-star, but is most likely just going to be a guy who is nice to have around. We have a lot of players who could provide similar value in the pipeline, so you would not want to allocate a lot of money to him.

[Roderick]

If Boras wasn't his agent, I'd be all about a 4/$30-ish type contract extension.

I find it unlikely even Scott Boras could get Gomez a deal like that. Guy's not even a proven full-time player.

Ahh, yes. My least favorite term once again rears its ugly head. I 'get' it here, I 'get' it whenever it's mentioned, but I still hate it.

 

Maybe I should've just gone with the 4/$25M idea that others have floated in this thread -- that didn't seem to throw anyone. I feel like 4/$30M is a little closer to what might realistically get something done, sans Boras... I realize that's a little nit-picky on my part.

 

I just feel like with how FA spending has exploded, Gomez turning himself into the mid-700s OPS player everyone hoped he would (yes, that's my belief) means he's going to be looking at some serious interest once he hits the FA market. I think $6-8M per year for a guy like that, with obviously elite defense, is a good deal.

Count me in the group that says pay him his arby money for 2013 and go from there. Maybe he will be more consistent and Schafer doesn't produce and they will be forced to go after him as a FA. I'd rather wait and overpay later, then sign now and find out we have seen his best and that Schafer can pretty much replicate his value at min. wage.

[Baldkin]

If you hit him 8th, he'll likely revert to a .230 hitter with less power. Furthermore, you hit him 8th and he gets on with less than 2 outs, what happens? The pitcher bunts. His base stealing ability is wasted in that scenario. He's a guy that even with Braun up, his steal percentage is such that it's not that big a risk to run him.

 

So, let's just say that hitting in front of Braun, for only Carlos Gomez, is worth 10 points of OBP. Give him .300 OBP overall.

 

That still means he is making 60 more outs per season in front of Ryan Braun than a .350 OBPing Rickie Weeks would.

That's just stupid.

 

Why can't he steal and have the pitcher pull the bat back?

That risk isn't worth it?

[trwi7]

It makes sense to have Gomez bat 8th. He leads off an inning by getting on 1st, see if he can steal 2nd and then have the pitcher bunt him over to 3rd. Just like that a sac fly or ground ball depending on where the infield defense is playing leads to a run.

 

Putting one of your lowest OBP guys in front of Braun and Ramirez is stupid.

[MJLiverock]

Most of the time the complaints about Gomez batting 2nd have merit but the results this year disagree and make RR look pretty good for the decision. Remember early in the year Weeks was awful and many called for his moving down in the order because of his poor results and to just let him work through it further down the lineup. Lucroy was hurt (and it isn't like his career OBP has been anything special prior to his hot start/short period which no one wants to give Gomez credit for yet supposedly Lucroy was going to keep it up). The team has struggled to find a combination to bat 1-2 and with Aoki at the top the 2 hole was left between choosing a DFA filler from SS, the back up catchers or CFer.

 

Gomez in the 2 spot has been .333/.511/.844 compared to Weeks batting 1st or 2nd putting up .325/.303/.628, and the demotion of Weeks to the 6th spot has worked as well with him finding his stroke/working through whatever was plaguing him. Weeks has hit .355/.429/.783 down there. Some will argue it is dumb luck but the move worked for RR and that is really all that matters in my view, results not projections, and why managers are there, to make moves to try and improve a situation. Going forward if they flipped them I'd have no problem with it since Weeks has started hitting again but he may say he likes hitting there better or they may decide to not get cute and leave what is working alone for now.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Gomez in the #7 or #8 spot is a great spot for him in a NL lineup - his biggest liability (OBP) doesn't kill the top of a lineup when he isn't going good. Put Weeks or even LuCroy up in the #2 spot, lead off with Aoki or Weeks, and have a very solid lineup going into 2013:

 

Weeks/Aoki

LuCroy/Weeks

Braun

Ramirez

Hart/Gamel(If Hart's traded)

Aoki/Lucroy

Segura

Gomez (Schafer as backup OF)

Pitcher

[Thurston Fluff]

I think a lot of his value is based on how much one thinks defense is worth. I used to think a lot more than I do today. An elite CF is a spot it has more value but still I'd rather have a mediocre defender with good offense than a great defender with mediocre offense. He's got value even if he sucks on offense and I think a bench player these days makes a couple million so a young guy who might be more could be worst up to four or five million. I'd sign that with the idea that was a spot I'm covered but also one I would like to upgrade if possible.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Seems that Gomez has made some adjustments recently that has got his SLG up. For a long time, his tools pushed coaches into trying to turn him into an OBP guy. Seemed rational given his speed that he could be a great top of the order guy, but he just doesn't have the plate discipline. Trying that nice easy swing that takes the ball up the middle or the other way hasn't worked on a sustanable basis either. I think the coaches have finally realized that, and they are just turning him loose. Let him get the 15+ HRs and SLG to .425 if the OBP is going to stay at that .300 level. With his glove he's still quite valuable. It also means he should be batting 7th or 8th. It doesn't really matter this year since we're out of it, but if the coaches have realized enough to let him swing away they should also realize he's better off lower in the order. A plus plus fielder that hits .250/.300/.425 has plenty of value.

[logan82]

I have no problem with him batting 6 or lower. I actually wouldn't put him 8 since I believe the only spot where the next batter effects the previous hitter is ahead of the pitcher and I think his approach stinks. I don't have much problem with a guy batting a place or two out of where I think they should be but 4+ places is to much. I have the same fear that I had with Kotsay. Our manager has no concept™.

[Team Hoyt]

I think he deserves a Bill Hall type contract.

[torts]

I think he deserves a Bill Hall type contract.

 

fixed.

[Funketown]

It's probably worth noting that at age 27, Gomez' defense will only get worse from here on out. I imagine he'll age fairly well though given his athleticism.

[dlk9s]

Yeah, I wouldn't worry about his defense/speed for a few more years.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Gomez back down in the 7 spot today, with Weeks in the 2 hole. I like this lineup a lot better.

[Team Hoyt]

Good thing we have Weeks signed through 2014