Doug Melvin interview on Bill Michaels show this afternoon

[RockCoCougars]

To me, the whole question when it comes to Hart is twofold. What will you get for him, and how will you use the money that you save? As far as what you may get in a trade, I look at the Pence deal to get a feel on it. To me, that return was pretty underwhelming, and you will probably get less for Hart in the off season and certainly less during the season next year. You most certainly are not going to get an impact arm for him, so- best case, you'll may get a couple of arms with potential- but with warts. Frankly, I think that the Brewers have enough of those guys right now in the system. As for the salary relief moving him would provide, where could it be better used? On a free agent deal for a second line SP? I don't like that risk. You are going to overpay, and as we've seen, Suppan was a disaster and Wolf has been pretty much a push. I don't like the risk/reward to those types of deals. Suppan was an unmitigated disaster, and though Wolf actually turned out OK, he looks horrible this season. I suppose you could find a situation where a high salary guy has worn out his welcome somewhere (Carlos Lee, Greinke), but in that case, you are going to have to give up something for them. Now if trading Hart meant freeing up payroll room to sign a guy like Greinke, I might have listened, but that ship has sailed.

[paul253]

Where could you better spend the money? Good free agents don't come cheap, and as we've seen, the Brewers are going to get second tier guys at best, and likely overpay for them.

The bullpen? Depth? International free agents?

 

I really don't think Hart is that bad at all in RF

 

I actually thought Hart was pretty good defensively in RF.....until 2011. In 2011 I thought to myself, holy crap what happened to Corey Hart? He took a very noticeable step backward in both speed and judging flyballs. I remember a few games where his defense actually lost the game. I'd feel more comfortable with Gamel in RF than Hart. If we re-sign him it has to be as a first basemen. But when you do that, you essentially tell Hunter Morris that he has no future in Milwaukee. Just like by signing Aramis Ramirez you told Taylor Green he has no future in Milwaukee.

 

To me, trading Corey Hart makes the most sense. We are loaded with guys who can play first base and corner outfield. You have Gamel, Davis, Aoki, Braun, Gindl, and Morris. That's 6 guys for three positions. Why pay Corey Hart $15 million a year, which essentially leaves 5 guys for one spot because obviously Braun and Hart both play every day. Starting in 2014, you then have 3 mid to high ceiling prospects in Davis, Gindl, Morris (plus Aoki if you choose to extend him AND Mat Gamel) competing for one spot. And you have $15 million less to spend on other areas of need. All this to give a 32 year old career .276 hitter $13-$15 million a year? I think given time and ample opportunity all three of Morris, Davis and Gamel can hit .275 with 20 HRs. And at 1/20th the cost.

[3and2Fastball]

I think that Hart will end up getting an Adam Dunn type deal on the market. I'd say 4 years, mid 50's to 60 million. At that price, I'd be pretty inclined to sign him. Where could you better spend the money? Good free agents don't come cheap, and as we've seen, the Brewers are going to get second tier guys at best, and likely overpay for them.

 

Problem is, Adam Dunn gets a way better OBP for the money, and more HR's

 

edit: meant to add, I don't have a problem with keeping Hart for 2013 and trying to make the 2013 playoffs. Trade him at the deadline if we're out of it in July 2013, or let him walk after the season

[SRB]

I think it's well past time to give up on the Gamel dream-that-was-never-that-much-of-a-dream. Dude can't hit MLB pitching and has never been a passable defender (at least, not outside of 1B). I would be happy if they got a usable bullpen piece for him. More likely he'll end up like the ghosts of 1B prospects past (e.g. Brandon Allen, currently playing in Japan).

[phnxcrew]

I'm definitely on board with Gamel to right field. Unless he's part of a bigger trade for an Ace there's no reason to get rid of him when you essentially have two centerfielders starting in CF/ RF everyday.

[xisxisxis]

I think it's well past time to give up on the Gamel dream-that-was-never-that-much-of-a-dream. Dude can't hit MLB pitching and has never been a passable defender (at least, not outside of 1B). I would be happy if they got a usable bullpen piece for him. More likely he'll end up like the ghosts of 1B prospects past (e.g. Brandon Allen, currently playing in Japan).

 

Well thank god you posted that excellent argument with clear analysis of historical statistics, a thorough review of scouting reports and a unique synthesis of distanct data sets. Now I can sleep well tonight knowing without a doubt that Matt Gamel is a bust. No more fantasy's of the second coming of The love child of Hank Aaron and Barry Bonds. Let's just move on......

[fondybrewfan]

The problem with Gamel is there really is no place to play him. Hart is at 1B next year in all likelihood with Hunter Morris having a great shot at the job in 2014. In RF you probably have Aoki in 2013 and maybe Aoki/Davis after that. Gamel isn't going back to 3rd so where exactly are you going to play him. The only way Gamel has any role on the team at all is if Hart is traded this offseason and I just don't see that happening. I also don't see anyway he is kept as a bench player. The obvious problem is you won't get squat for him coming off of a major knee injury so you might have to find a place for him somewhere in 2013 to re-establish value. But again there is no good place to put him.

[paul253]

I think it's well past time to give up on the Gamel dream-that-was-never-that-much-of-a-dream. Dude can't hit MLB pitching and has never been a passable defender (at least, not outside of 1B). I would be happy if they got a usable bullpen piece for him.

 

Talk about the epitome of selling low. Even if he hits .260 next year as a part time player he'd probably fetch more than he would now.

I also don't see anyway he is kept as a bench player.

 

Why not? I'd rather have him coming off the bench than Jeff Bianchi or Cesar Isturis.

[endaround]

And if Gamel could play MI that would make sense.

[SRB]

Well thank god you posted that excellent argument with clear analysis of historical statistics, a thorough review of scouting reports and a unique synthesis of distanct data sets. Now I can sleep well tonight knowing without a doubt that Matt Gamel is a bust. No more fantasy's of the second coming of The love child of Hank Aaron and Barry Bonds. Let's just move on......

As opposed to your great analysis, which is... ? (aside from misspelling his name)

 

He only has half a seasons worth of PA, but his PA have been horrible relative to his position/other abilities (.299 wOBA?). That's concerning and frankly unforgivable when: 1) you are not in your early-20s, but should be right in the prime of your hitting ability (he's only a few years younger than Corey Hart...), and 2) you are a 1B and can't play anywhere else. The rule for 1B prospects is that to be considered remotely legitimate they have to absolutely crush the ball at every level, because it is such an offense-reliant position. Gamel has not done that. He is never going to do that. Even his dream-case projections are to be a Lyle Overbay-type, average-to-below-average second division starter.

 

He hasn't been able to hit yet in the major leagues, does anyone honestly expect that he's going to come back from almost missing an entire season and suddenly be good in 2013? I was all on board with the theory coming into 2012 that he just hadn't been given regular playing time and that's why his hitting had been so bad, but then he had the starting job and was looking terrible when he was handed his sink-or-swim moment. It's time to move on, nothing against Gamel himself.

[paul253]

but should be right in the prime of your hitting ability

 

It's not his fault that the Brewers had in rot in Nashville for what, 4 years? His "prime" has been pushed back for that reason. I think "prime" has as much to do with major league experience as it does age, unless of course you think Mike Fiers is in his prime right now.

 

you are a 1B and can't play anywhere else.

 

He can play somewhere else though. I'm sure he can play corner outfield (who can't?) and in an emergency he could probably hold down third base for a week or two. The only reason he was moved to first to begin with was because that was where the opening was. If Casey McGehee had the same year in 2010 as he did in 2011 Mat Gamel would have probably been our third basemen last season.

does anyone honestly expect that he's going to come back from almost missing an entire season and suddenly be good in 2013?

 

Nobody expects him to come into 2013 and be Albert Pujols. The idea is that he can learn how to hit major league pitching after seeing it over an extended period of time and then get progressively better.

I was all on board with the theory coming into 2012 that he just hadn't been given regular playing time and that's why his hitting had been so bad...

So you were all for giving him a chance this year but those 69 at bats this season where he hit .249 completely changed your mind and now you're convinced he'll never be a good player so we should just trade him for a bullpen arm? Kind of a rush to judgment isn't it?

....but then he had the starting job and was looking terrible when he was handed his sink-or-swim moment.

 

He certainly did not look terrible. Though it was only 21 games, he struck out at a much lower rate than both Weeks and Hart do. He also had multiple hits in 6 of his first 15 games. He was in a mini slump the 6 games before he got hurt and that really hurt his overall numbers. On April 20 he was hitting .298 with a .353 OBP. By April 30 he was down to .246 and .293 and then he got hurt. So minus that little six game slide before he got hurt he was hitting very well. Certainly not terrible.

[gregmag]

Why in the world would you trade Gamel, coming off an injury, in a year where the Brewers probably don't expect to compete, for a bullpen arm? That only makes sense if you're sure -- sure -- he's a bust, in which case you still have to find a GM who knows less about baseball than you do. The few people here who have argued that Gamel's a certain bust have made very poor arguments, which isn't their fault, because there's no meaningful evidence to support the conclusion. He could fail to develop, sure. But if he even has a chance to be a bench bat with pop, he's worth more at his salary than the next Jose Veras.

 

I'm glad nobody's bashing Corey Hart anymore. A few years ago, about half this board seemed to think Corey Hart was . . . well, Mat Gamel or something. I respectfully suggest that people who are urging that we keep Hart aren't thinking enough about three things (beyond the factors others have mentioned). First, 1b is the easiest place to find hitters, and while Hart is plenty productive enough to start for a contender, he's not special. Second, 30 is not young, especially for a one-dimensional power hitter, which is basically what Corey is fast becoming. Third, the Brewers don't just have Mat Gamel as a hedge against dealing Hart. They also have Khris Davis, Hunter Morris, Taylor Green, Caleb Gindl . . . if they had no brighter idea than "let's throw some cheap guys with varying degrees of promise at the wall and see who sticks," they could make a good go of that strategy.

 

I'll be sad if we trade Corey, because he's a homegrown success story, and I've been following him his whole career. But if you have the players the Brewers have, and you're at the point in the competitive curve they're at, and Corey's at the point in his contract he's at -- if none of those things changes much, I think a smart organization trades him in the offseason ten times out of ten.

[rluzinski]

He only has half a seasons worth of PA, but his PA have been horrible relative to his position/other abilities (.299 wOBA?). That's concerning and frankly unforgivable when: 1) you are not in your early-20s, but should be right in the prime of your hitting ability (he's only a few years younger than Corey Hart...), and 2) you are a 1B and can't play anywhere else. The rule for 1B prospects is that to be considered remotely legitimate they have to absolutely crush the ball at every level, because it is such an offense-reliant position. Gamel has not done that.

 

You have to exaggerate a little to even call it half a seasons worth. There are plenty of reasons to not be excited about Gamel at this point but the results of his 269 major league PA over 4-5 seasons tell us very little. Gamel may not even project to be an average 1B next year but since he'll get paid $400,000, he doesn't have to be to be worth keeping around.

 

I was all on board with the theory coming into 2012 that he just hadn't been given regular playing time and that's why his hitting had been so bad, but then he had the starting job and was looking terrible when he was handed his sink-or-swim moment. It's time to move on, nothing against Gamel himself

 

O my goodness. 75 PA. Unforgivable.

[TURBO]

I have seen a lot of people say that 1B is the easiest position to find hitters...

 

Look around the league, if that were true, every team would have a slugger good hitter at that position.

 

I think that statement is grossly over-used.

[GamelToe]

I'm not sold on Gamel being any good, but at this point you might as well ride it out. He doesn't really have that great of trade value currently.

[logan82]

Gamel's numbers didn't look good but he certainly did. He has such a nice swing.

[gregmag]

I have seen a lot of people say that 1B is the easiest position to find hitters...

 

Look around the league, if that were true, every team would have a slugger good hitter at that position.

 

I think that statement is grossly over-used.

So you're saying the statement is wrong? Okay: at what position are you arguing it's easier to find hitters?

[SRB]

You have to exaggerate a little to even call it half a seasons worth. There are plenty of reasons to not be excited about Gamel at this point but the results of his 269 major league PA over 4-5 seasons tell us very little. Gamel may not even project to be an average 1B next year but since he'll get paid $400,000, he doesn't have to be to be worth keeping around.

 

O my goodness. 75 PA. Unforgivable.

 

Yeah, it is a little unforgivable when you are playing arguably the most important offensive position. I guess the difference of opinion here is that a lot of you all seem to have given up on 2013 season completely and are willing to let Gamel struggle some more to see if he can pull things out and become a passable starter.

 

I'd prefer to field a competitive team and not have a black hole at first base.

 

Since 2000, there have been 153 1B with 250+ PA. So far Gamel ranks 138th offensively (by wOBA). The only players with worse wOBA who were allowed to accumulate 500+ PA were John Bowker (lol), Andy Marte and Justin Smoak (two at-one-point elite prospects who were much more highly regarded than Gamel). All those players are below replacement level.

 

I don't disagree that Gamel could improve, but why does he have to be the Brewers' experiment? His upside (a roughly average-to-below-average regular at 1B) is not enough to justify taking the risk. Maybe if we were the Astros, then I would have no problem putting him out there and seeing what he can do. But I haven't given up on 2013 yet, I guess.

[BoxedWineWarrior]

People listen to Bill Michaels? On purpose?

[paul253]

Since 2000, there have been 153 1B with 250+ PA. So far Gamel ranks 138th offensively

 

That is an unfair comparison. As I said, he didn't come up as a first basemen and has played all of 26 games as a major league first basemen. You are mostly using his stats as a part time third basemen and DH to compare with other first basemen. I wouldn't compare Taylor Green's stats to other first basemen and I don't think it's fair to compare Gamel's yet either, not until he has played a meaningful number of games at the position.

 

And you bring up Justin Smoak's name. Smoak had 489 plate appearances last season and has 344 so far this year. That means by the end up this season he'll have probably over 900 plate appearances in two seasons. The most plate appearances Gamel had over a 2 year period was 165. If Gamel is given the same opportunity as Smoak and fails so be it. But considering how vastly different their major league opportunities have been it's like comparing night and day.

[LouisEly]

1) The Brewers have $36M coming off the books next year in Greinke, Izturis, Loe, K-Rod, Veras, and (likely) Wolf. If you add Marcum and Morgan to that it makes $46M. They have $11.5M in raises coming, and no one eligible for arby is having anywhere remotely close to a good season and deserving of a significant raise. Payroll is not going to be an issue next year, so we can take that out of the argument for trading Hart.

 

B) While Hart's offensive value decreases at 1B, his defensive value increases at 1B. Remember, he was moved off of 1B because of Fielder. He has shown to be a very good defensive 1B, better than Gamel. Maybe Gamel can learn RF in one spring training... coming off of knee surgery, I'm not sure that's possible. Is he eligible for the AFL, and if so, will he be healthy enough to start learning RF in the AFL?

 

3) Personally I like the idea of keeping him and using a platoon:

 

Vs. RHP: Gamel - 1B, Hart - RF, Aoki - CF

Vs. LHP: Hart - 1B, Aoki - RF, Gomez - CF

 

This gives the Brewers some flexibility to see if resigning Hart is feasible/desirable, or if trading him is the way to go. It gives Gamel time to build his trade value over the course of a season in case Hart is the future at 1B, as his value now is low. Worst case scenario Gamel is a better bench bat than they've had in a while.

 

4) Ishikawa is an interesting comparison to Gamel, as Ishikawa was never given more than 363 PAs in a season to prove himself (and that was the only season he was given more than 200 PAs). But Ishikawa was never an elite prospect; he had two good offensive seasons, but both were in very hitter friendly leagues (PCL - in a small sample, and Cal leagues).

[rluzinski]

Yeah, it is a little unforgivable when you are playing arguably the most important offensive position. I guess the difference of opinion here is that a lot of you all seem to have given up on 2013 season completely and are willing to let Gamel struggle some more to see if he can pull things out and become a passable starter.

 

I'd prefer to field a competitive team and not have a black hole at first base.

 

Since 2000, there have been 153 1B with 250+ PA. So far Gamel ranks 138th offensively (by wOBA). The only players with worse wOBA who were allowed to accumulate 500+ PA were John Bowker (lol), Andy Marte and Justin Smoak (two at-one-point elite prospects who were much more highly regarded than Gamel). All those players are below replacement level.

 

I don't disagree that Gamel could improve, but why does he have to be the Brewers' experiment? His upside (a roughly average-to-below-average regular at 1B) is not enough to justify taking the risk. Maybe if we were the Astros, then I would have no problem putting him out there and seeing what he can do. But I haven't given up on 2013 yet, I guess.

 

Comparing Gamel to any 1B since 2000 with 250+ PA is not enlightening, IMO. It's common sense that he will rank very low on a such a list. Players who have accumulated a small number of PA's in the majors have rate stats that have a low probability of representing their true talent. You are comparing Gamel with players who have much larger samples on average.

 

There are also issues with how you compared him to players with at least 500 PA. First, why the 500 PA threshold? Obviously, the higher you set your PA threshold, the less likely you will find a player was allowed to struggle for that length of time. I see no justification for using a threshold higher than 269. Second, you should be looking at all players who had a poorer wOBA in their first 269 PA and then see how many subsequent PA they were allowed to accumulate. I don't think that is what you did.

 

Finally, you don't have to assume people have given up on 2013 to understand why some would like to see him play a role next year. The notion that only terrible teams should pay $.5 mil for an above replacement level but below average performance at a position doesn't pass the smell test to me. You are paying below market value for wins and there are plenty of other positions to spend that money. It's exactly why I didn't mind the Hardy/Gomez trade. Unless you are the Yankees, you don't need all average or above average at every position. Spend the saving somewhere else.

 

A decent role for Gamel next year might be to let him platoon at 1B with Hart (with Hart playing in RF against righties). That also leaves Gamel for pinch hitting duties when he doesn't start. I would prefer that over trading him for a reliever who is worth $2 mil and is getting paid $2 mil.

[adambr2]

I don't know why anyone would even consider Wolf back next year on his option. I cant think of too many worse investments of 8.5 M of payroll.

[brewtank34]

I was so excited to see what Gamel was able to provide this year and he screwed it all up

 

I hear you- he never should have put forth maximum effort chasing that foul ball....

 

 

To all those who chastised me for having an opinion on Gamel being more of a disappointment that our BP, our record etc... take it easy! It was my opinion that the injury to Gamel has more ramifications to the future of the Brewers than just this awful year of the BP. Gamel is under control for a few more years and with his upside, it would have been nice to see what he could actually do in the majors. He had a great ST and I was excited to see what he could bring to the table now that Prince was gone. Now, he doesn't have a place on our team because Hart is showing great defense at first and Aoki is proving to be an asset out in RF. Now we have to choose whether or not to pay Hart big $$ to be our first baseman for the future or to trade him. His injury forces us to decide whether to trade low on Gamel or to keep him for a bench player.

 

Also, to my comment that he screwed it up....I meant the opportunity to prove he can be a player. Give me a break you guys. I wasn't suggesting that he screwed up his opportunity on purpose by hussling 100% on a foul ball. Relax! The ramifications of Gamels injury are more than what you all are discussing here.

[TURBO]

I have seen a lot of people say that 1B is the easiest position to find hitters...

 

Look around the league, if that were true, every team would have a slugger good hitter at that position.

 

I think that statement is grossly over-used.

So you're saying the statement is wrong? Okay: at what position are you arguing it's easier to find hitters?

 

I am not arguing that any position is EASY to find hitters... I'm saying that finding good hitting at any position is tough to do. So yes, I think your statement that finding good hitters at 1B is easy, is false.