Doug Melvin interview on Bill Michaels show this afternoon

[Dollarbill13]

- Mentioned rotation next year will consist of "a few young arms". Said SP FA market is thin and the Brewers will more than likely turn to their own (farm) guys.

 

I find this comment from Melvin to be kind of strange. Not that we shouldn't go into the year and give our young pitchers a shot but the FA SP market seems a lot deeper than in most years...

[slappzilla]

My guess is he was addressing the people who keep saying he should resign Greinke in the offseason.

[Team Hoyt]

You may think the FA pool for starting pitching is deep, but the Brewers are trying to cut some money from their payroll and cannot afford to pay for 10 mil per year plus FA pitchers especially for someone like Greinke who will get better then 20 mil per year.

 

I say give the farm system a shot at producing quality starters for a low price.

 

Use some of the payroll for quality relief pitching and hope Axford bounces back next year.

[RockCoCougars]

I keep seeing this notion that you dump Hart and can easily plug someone in to fill his spot- for 'cheap', none the less. I just don't see it. Once again, his slugging percentage is over .500, and he's 7th in the league in total bases on pace for another year with ~30 homers. I also don't understand this concept that he's near his expiration date and he needs to be 'sold high' either. He's only 30 years old for heaven's sake, and I haven't seen any decline in his ability. I can't see why he wouldn't continue being productive barring injury for at least 5 more years.

[slappzilla]

That reminds me, after re-listening to the interview in the link I posted, when Melvin was asked about the bullpen, he said the bullpen was the easiest thing to replenish and only mentioned Axford as being around next year for sure.

[jjgott]

That reminds me, after re-listening to the interview in the link I posted, when Melvin was asked about the bullpen, he said the bullpen was the easiest thing to replenish and only mentioned Axford as being around next year for sure.

 

That sounds about right. I mean, outside of Ax there really isn't anyone who I'd call a lock, or even suggest bringing back for ST, in the current bullpen.

[Invader3K]

The best option at 1B might be to let Hart ride out his contract for one more year, let him go in FA, and have Morris step in to play in '14.

 

I really don't see a spot for Gamel going forward. People are neglecting that he's had chances the last three years and gotten injured every season. I think he'll get traded during the off-season because he's quite simply expendable at this point. What I really don't get is people suggesting that Gamel should get a chance in RF, and relegate Aoki to the bench. Aoki has proven way more than Gamel at this point.

[rluzinski]

Gamel strikes me as a talent that is easily replaceable. Could he turn out to be an average MLB player; sure I suppose he could. But if you can trade him for an area of need (Such as a reliever) I say you do it.

 

Do you realize how much an average major league is worth in free agency? Around $9 mil. Is Gamel eligible for arbitration in 2014? Even if he is and isn't average until then, he has a TON of value.

 

This is a real rough estimate of what he might be worth and what he'd get paid in free agency for the same production:

 

Year: Salary, Free Agency Worth

2013: $.4, $4.5 mil (assuming he's between replacement level and average)

2014: $2 mil, $9 mil (average player, 1st year arby)

2015: $4 mil, $9 mil (average player, 2nd year arby)

2015: $6 mil, $9 mil (average player, 3rd year arby)

-------------------------------------------------

Total: $12.4 mil, $31.5 mil

 

That's a possible $19 mil in net value! Do I know he will develop into a league average player by 2014? Of course not. I think there is a reasonable chance, though. I sure as heck wouldn't want to trade him for a reliever who probably has little or no net value himself.

[Nottso]

I'd like to see that same set of numbers on Hart. I don't know where or how to get them though.

[yfinn6]

I'd like to see that same set of numbers on Hart. I don't know where or how to get them though.

 

According to Cot's, Corey signed a three year extension prior to 2011.

 

2011: $6.5 mil

2012: $9 mil

2013: $10 mil

 

I don't think I know how to do a hyperlink on this format. But here's the link, Nottso: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/?page_id=71

 

*Edit - oh, well.. looks like the site did it for me. Cool. Interesting site for sure (Cot's).

[slappzilla]

I think he meant what sort of $$$ Hart will warrant going forward in comparison to what Gamel will make going forward.

 

I maybe wrong though.

[yfinn6]

Ah, good possibility of that. I'd be curious to see the answer to that, as well.

[Nottso]

Thanks, but i meant the 2013, 2014 and 2015 projections of salary and gross value like rluzinski did for Gamel above.

 

If Hart's gross value is 60 million to Gamel's gross value of 31.5 million, but Hart's net value is only 10 million compared to Gamel's net value of 19 million, I think we'd be much better off with Hart.

 

edit: I have no idea what Hart's gross or net values will be. I just pulled those numbers out of thin air to illustrate what I'm trying to find out.

[fondybrewfan]

Rluz;

 

I think you took my term "average" maybe too literally. But point taken. All I was trying to say was that Gamel does have a change to be an OK player; but I don't know that the Brewers need to be holding a spot for him anymore considering that they have other options in the minors that could turn out to be just as good, are younger, and have more service time going forward.

 

I understand Gamel would have considerable value if he ever figures it out; but perhaps similarly to JDLR it might be time for him to figure it out somewhere else. I wouldn't give him away for nothing but if you can get a good 7th/8th inning guy along with perhaps a 3B prospect I would have to consider it. While I have no proof to back it up; I think Melvin and RR have moved on past Gamel at this point primarily due to Hart playing so well at 1st and the emergence of Aoki in RF. They could keep Gamel as a bench bet but I just don't see him doing very well in that role.

[monty57]

Thanks, but i meant the 2013, 2014 and 2015 projections of salary and gross value like rluzinski did for Gamel above

 

Theoretically, if you sign him to a market value extension, then you will pay exactly what his production is worth. If he gets better in his 32, 33 & 34-year old seasons, then you will have signed a "value" deal. If he regresses at those ages, then you will have paid too much. Salaries are going up around the league, and what Hart gets in an extension willl probably be significantly more than he's making now. Pence making around $10.5MM in arby and will be in his final arby year next year. When he gets $13-14MM in arby (or more likley signs an extension), Hart will be able to use that in negotiations, as they are remarkably similar players.

 

However, I'd argue that the "what he's worth" numbers aren't really accurate, because the "what he's worth" figures don't compute opportunity costs of replacing him with a pre-arby guy and are inflated by big money teams offering monster contracts that aren't necessarily realistic for small/mid market teams. (rluzinski kind of addressed this in his Gamel "projection" above)

 

Maybe Hart is "worth" $15MM in 2014, but does that mean he is the best option for the Brewers if Gamel or Morris can provide decent numbers for $480,000? If Hart's "worth" is something like $15MM, but he's only being paid $10.333MM, then wouldn't it make sense that someone would offer a decent trade package for a player who puts up good numbers, has an "excess value" contract and would net them a comp pick?

 

What it really comes down to for the Brewers is what provides them with the most value: Keeping Hart for one more year and getting a comp pick for him, Extending Hart to a market value deal, Keeping Hart for the start of the season and trading him at the deadline, or trading Hart before next season starts where the receiving team would get the comp pick so he would bring back the greatest return.

[slappzilla]

Gamel hasn't had a legit chance to sink or swim in the majors yet. Give him that chance next year.

 

It's what you have to do if you're a smaller market team. Trade Hart, run with Aoki and Gamel at RF and 1B next year. If Gamel sinks, here comes Morris.

 

The Pence comparison is good, but I think Jason Werth (pre 2011) is a better comparison to Hart.

 

Corey Hart is comparable to Jason Werth in the year by year stat dept pre 2011, and look at what Werth signed for when he became a FA. I doubt anyone gives Hart as much as the nats overpaid for Werth, but is it unbelievable to assume that Hart could garnish something like 16-18M a year for 5-7 years? Would you want the Brewers to do that, vs. taking a shot at Gamel for far, far less and having that extra money to fill other holes?

 

Werth was terrible in 2011 and has been hurt most of 2012, but pre 2011 his year by year stats line up with Harts fairly close. Their career stats are really close.

[Dollarbill13]

Thanks, but i meant the 2013, 2014 and 2015 projections of salary and gross value like rluzinski did for Gamel above.

 

If Hart's gross value is 60 million to Gamel's gross value of 31.5 million, but Hart's net value is only 10 million compared to Gamel's net value of 19 million, I think we'd be much better off with Hart.

 

edit: I have no idea what Hart's gross or net values will be. I just pulled those numbers out of thin air to illustrate what I'm trying to find out.

 

The big wild card for Hart is that his contract is up. He's on pace for $14.5M of production this year (per fangraphs). If you consider his production to be similar next year, he'll have a net value of $4.5M. After that, it just comes down to how well he'll age vs. what his next salary will be. Both are just guesses, IMO.

[harrydalton]

In RF.

 

He has a strong arm. He can run a little and catch a ball. His problem at 3B was his throws, which was apparently due to his footwork. OF throws are obviously different and the footwork less complicated.

 

RF is the opening now. This is a business and the Crew could use his LH bat if he can stay healthy and get it going!

[RockCoCougars]

I think that Hart will end up getting an Adam Dunn type deal on the market. I'd say 4 years, mid 50's to 60 million. At that price, I'd be pretty inclined to sign him. Where could you better spend the money? Good free agents don't come cheap, and as we've seen, the Brewers are going to get second tier guys at best, and likely overpay for them.

[thebruce44]

I also don't understand this concept that he's near his expiration date and he needs to be 'sold high' either. He's only 30 years old for heaven's sake, and I haven't seen any decline in his ability

 

Well he switched to 1B mostly because of his decline in ability to play RF. That switch in and of itself has caused a decline in his value. He will probably be a 2.5-3 WAR player this year. That's a decline and its played out right in front of us so I don't know how you can't see it.

 

In addition, we've seen him just "lose it" for more than just a bad month or two. Fair or not, that's always going to stick around in the back of people's minds.

[rwa12]

I don't see any reason to trade Gamel, I liked what little I saw of him this year. I don't think you necessarily pencil him in as a starter anywhere. He's kind of aged out of prospect status at this point, we are basically in his prime if I'm not mistaken. Give him a chance to play a utility role and hit his way into the lineup. If Hart gets injured, which seems to happen, let him make his stand then.

 

I've never been a superfan of Gamel, but I agree that you don't throw away cheap talent. He may never have the career he was supposed to have, but he can be of use. How nice would it have been to have his bat available off the bench this year?

 

IMO, baseball isn't exactly fair. It is a game of timing. He was unfortunate to be blocked by Prince, and when given a chance, he ran into bad luck. Sometimes life just happens that way. Often prospects, especially at non-premium positions have a very limited window to prove themselves. If you don't blow the doors off, the next guy is right behind you waiting. Teams like the Brewers can't give up on these guys too quickly, but they also can't keep the hope alive forever. I would love for him to turn into something, but my expectations are tempering by the year.

[RockCoCougars]

I also don't understand this concept that he's near his expiration date and he needs to be 'sold high' either. He's only 30 years old for heaven's sake, and I haven't seen any decline in his ability

 

Well he switched to 1B mostly because of his decline in ability to play RF. That switch in and of itself has caused a decline in his value. He will probably be a 2.5-3 WAR player this year. That's a decline and its played out right in front of us so I don't know how you can't see it.

 

In addition, we've seen him just "lose it" for more than just a bad month or two. Fair or not, that's always going to stick around in the back of people's minds.

 

I've said it before, and I'll say it again... I really don't think Hart is that bad at all in RF, especially when watching some of the guys that other teams put out there. I saw the reason for the switch to 1B more to take over for Green/Ishakawa who were dreadful/hurt, while opening up a regular role for Aoki.

[thebruce44]

I also don't understand this concept that he's near his expiration date and he needs to be 'sold high' either. He's only 30 years old for heaven's sake, and I haven't seen any decline in his ability

 

Well he switched to 1B mostly because of his decline in ability to play RF. That switch in and of itself has caused a decline in his value. He will probably be a 2.5-3 WAR player this year. That's a decline and its played out right in front of us so I don't know how you can't see it.

 

In addition, we've seen him just "lose it" for more than just a bad month or two. Fair or not, that's always going to stick around in the back of people's minds.

 

I've said it before, and I'll say it again... I really don't think Hart is that bad at all in RF, especially when watching some of the guys that other teams put out there. I saw the reason for the switch to 1B more to take over for Green/Ishakawa who were dreadful/hurt, while opening up a regular role for Aoki.

 

We aren't going to agree on his defense then, but then I'll just say that if other GMs feel the way you do, Hart has more value to that team and should be traded.

[MNBrew]

If Gamel is healthy but doesn't start next year, I think you absolutely keep him around. There's absolutely no reason to have to trade him.

 

The whole issue is depth, and I'd like to think Gamel's a lot better player to have off the bench or ready to step in to start than the Ransom/Ishikawa/Conrad types we've seen this year.

 

I've long said that whoever your 4th OF or 5th IF is, he'd better be someone you're VERY comfortable with having as a long-term starter because in the event of an injury, that's exactly what his role his. Ideally that player is someone who's strong with the bat and in the field.

 

And at least on the offensive side, that was the whole issue with Izturis being the top IF reserve this year. Goodness knows, the guy can field quite competently. But his offense was usually incredibly confounding. . . . On the flip side, while Gomez has had some consistency issues and Morgan hasn't been nearly the hitter he was last year, that kind of quality depth in the OF is absolutely why there really haven't been any issues in the OF this year like there have been in the IF.

 

So that's why I think you keep Gamel next year even if he's not starting: So that Melvin & Co. aren't left to going out to sign next year's version of Cesar Izturis. Even if Gamel's not a starter, he's certainly far from being another Izturis or Conrad.

[xisxisxis]

I've said it before, and I'll say it again... I really don't think Hart is that bad at all in RF, especially when watching some of the guys that other teams put out there.

 

The issue isn't Hart's impending decline, it's that to sign him to an extension or win the bidding if he goes to free agency you will overpay for the production you will get. Now if Corey is that last peace that will take a mid80's win team and give them an excellent chance at 90 wins then that investment may be worth it. It's not clear at this point if the young SP we plan on putting in the rotation will be good enough to get this team to mid 80's in wins. So I don't see the need to hang our hats on a Hart extension as being necessary. However, things could change in the next year and resigning Hart could be a priority.