Rams' Top 50 Brewers Prospects

[foamboy1]

Loved the insight, Ram.

 

Thanks for the exceptional effort.

[ramssuperbowl1999]

Let's dismiss LF outright.

 

I do appreciate anyone taking the time to put together a list like this. I think you are going to get a lot of push back from this community on Davis since he is just performing like no other at this point. If his bat continues to be as good as it has been, I would take him as a below average RF, however, before I would do that, I would move Braun to RF and put Davis in LF.

Khris Davis isn't moving Ryan Braun anywhere.

 

The expectations for Davis on here are insane - "replacing Corey Hart's offense" and "hitting 20-30 HRs annually". Those are the offensive numbers that would make him a top 50 or top 25 prospect given how close he is the majors. Hell, those are the power potential numbers that I've seen on Wil Myers (2nd or 3rd on prospect lists overall). Not to be a jerk, but get real.

 

I realized I was going to get flack for this rating - BF has, historically, loved production. And I see why. You follow a guy's box score every single day for a few years and you want to believe he's going to be a stud. Just like this board thought Aumary Rivas was going to be a stud.

 

Every single scouting report out there tells you one thing - the consensus is this guy's swing is too long to hit at the major league level in any significant way. And his size calls into question his natural power ability. I think he'll make the big leagues and be a useful bench bat, but this is exactly the type of player that a team will go and get a free agent rather than give him a big league job.

[ramssuperbowl1999]

Loved the insight, Ram.

 

Thanks for the exceptional effort.

Thanks for the kind words! I appreciate it (thanks everyone else too!)!

[CheezWizHed]

The expectations for Davis on here are insane - "replacing Corey Hart's offense" and "hitting 20-30 HRs annually". Those are the offensive numbers that would make him a top 50 or top 25 prospect given how close he is the majors. Hell, those are the power potential numbers that I've seen on Wil Myers (2nd or 3rd on prospect lists overall). Not to be a jerk, but get real.

 

We danced this dance last year, so I was going to sit it out this year, but I guess I love an argument.

 

I don't think Hart potential is too far off. Hart was also scouted as having a long swing also (Jeromy Burnitz also and he was 6'0). I don't follow the MiLB of other teams at all, but I'd be surprised if a max of a .825 OPS LFer would make a Top 50 let alone a Top 25.

 

As you pointed out, there are problems with going on pure stats. But there are also problems with completely dismissing a guy because of a flaw based on scouting also. Last year, we were arguing about Martin Maldonado for that same reason (Now, he isn't an all-star lock based on his little MLB time this year, but he has shown enough to belong in the bigs). Fiers is another good example. Ben Hendricksen would be the flip side.

 

My guess is that you will see most people put Khris around 12-15 in our User P50, which seems fair to me. He has a good chance to bust, but also a decent chance to be above average also.

 

As for "moving Braun", its not going to be a case of being so good that he will beat out Braun for LF. But I don't see a problem with the Brewers (probably after Khris proves himself first) moving Braun to put their best two OF options on the field.

 

Probably a better chance that Khris gets added in a trade, however.

 

Its just not all that cut-n-dried to be so dismissive.

[CheezWizHed]

But I do tip my hat to the work put into the write-ups! Now if only you were a Packer fan...

[ramssuperbowl1999]

But I do tip my hat to the work put into the write-ups! Now if only you were a Packer fan...

Just came in 3rd out of 150 or so in a Packer trivia quiz at work.

[pogokat]

i think some of the Khris davis love comes from how anti production the power 50 was in the past (i was guilty of this plenty as well) we have often put a lot more into potential (Brent Brewer) than results (Nelson Cruz) and I think that has shifted the philosophies of some. However, a major league bench player or a platoon player has real world value...and I think davis should be ranked higher, not because he's going to dominate, but because it is clear that he will be a useful major league cog...the flame out rate for short outfielders may be high, but its much lower than rookie ball right handed pitchers.

 

I agree with you quite a bit about Davis not being a star...or possibly even a starter, but he has the potential...i'd say a guy like davis,at his peak, has about a 10% shot at being an all-star, a 15% shot at being an above average regular, a 25% shot at being a regular, a 25% shot at being a bench guy, and a 25% shot at being Vinny Rotino...

 

which i think should place him pretty high---I see people suggesting Hunter Morris is a top 5 prospect, when one season ago, he was Brendan Katin---Davis has produced at every level...scouting or not, that counts...in fact, the random "long swing" scouting comments are frequently used to dismiss players with no real grounding...after all, if you listed purely to scouts, you'd know that Michael Brantley was going to develop power, and that Mat Gamel would hit for a high average in the majors...

 

in other words, I think you may be relying too much on scouting of davis to cover up just a dislike of him as a player...it's cool...there's lots of people relying on their liking of him to ignore his obvious flaws...

 

BUT! That of course means that it's fairly unreasonable of you to dismiss someone who says he has a shot at hitting 20 homers in the majors...i think it's pretty obvious he has close to that ability---it's extremely rare that players totally fold at the major league level when they have performed at such high levels in the minors...even the perennial 4a guys like Brian Lahair and Cody Ransom, warts and all, are capable of throwing up one above average stat...Davis Might have a long loopy swing, but given 600 ab's, i think he would hit 20 jacks...

 

anyway, I'm rambling, but I think personal opinion is masquerading as fact to a high level on both ends here...and it's probably not the best move to categorize brewerfan's opinion as if it is singlar

[paul253]

The expectations for Davis on here are insane - "replacing Corey Hart's offense" and "hitting 20-30 HRs annually". Those are the offensive numbers that would make him a top 50 or top 25 prospect given how close he is the majors. Hell, those are the power potential numbers that I've seen on Wil Myers (2nd or 3rd on prospect lists overall). Not to be a jerk, but get real.

 

You really can't envision this guy hitting 20 home runs in a season? Like it's not even possible? I guess.....I guess I'd like to know what about him, offensively, you are so hesitant about. The guy is a hitter, pure and simple. Just because I project him to hit 20 home runs certainly does not mean he has to be a top 25 or 50 prospect. That's ridiculous. But if you look at the career offensive numbers of Davis or Wil Myers they are actually very comparable:

 

Davis: .293/.400/.513

Myers: .300/.395/.524

 

Myers just happens to be much younger and presumably is better defensively which can explain why he is so highly ranked and Davis is not. But given his offensive potential and his minor league numbers I guess I don't see why it is so hard to envision 20 home runs from the guy.

[ramssuperbowl1999]

To everyone about the 20-30 HRs comment -

 

the comment said 20-30 annually. That means, every year. If a fluke happens, he wins a starting job somehow, and has the season of his life, it's possible. But not yearly. And honestly, even in one year is unlikely, simply because no serious MLB team is going to start him.

 

The number of legitimate sluggers that have gone on to become above average regulars at 26 or above is slim. Jose Bautista, David Freese, and...anyone else got the rest of this list?

[pogokat]

nelson cruz, michael morse, trevor plouffe, Allen craig, Garrett Jones...of course, these guys are all active and all on pace for 20+ homers this year...some with a decent track record...

 

and while Plouffe was once a 1st round pick, it took him nearly a decade to be successful in the majors...ditto Garrett Jones, who actually did take 10 years...Morse didn't get a real chance until he was 29, and we gave away nelson cruz in the carlos lee for coco cordero trade years ago...

 

it's not unprecedented at all...in fact, Casey McGhee came out of nowhere to develop into a slugger for a couple years for the brewers just 4 years ago...

 

scouts whiff sometimes...But Davis isn't representative of that...he was a 7th round pick...it's not like he's from the bottom of the drat...on top of that, he's made multiple all-star teams and won awards a long the way...the Brewers think highly of the guy...likewise, in his age 24 season in AAA, he has been very good...he's not a super prospect because of the things you've listed, but dismissing him outright makes little sense either

 

Jose Bautista is not a good comp for the sheer fact that his power developed later...Davis has dominated minor league ball...he's eaxtly the kind of player a team like the royals would give a starting job...and sometimes those replacement level players turn into melky cabrera, who came up young but didn't become the above average hitter he is no until age 27

[splitterpfj]

Additional players who found success after age 26...Gorman Thomas, Paul Sorrento, Matt Stairs, Geronimo Berroa, and how about...Edgar Martinez.

[igor67]

Don't forget the other Fielder, Cecil also made it big at 26.

[TooLiveBrew]

and how about...Edgar Martinez.

Man, every time I see or hear his name come up, I'm reminded how much I miss watching him hit. What a swing.

 

EDIT: Does anyone know/recall why he was a late bloomer? Since he DH'd, I assume it was defensive liabilities that held him back... iirc he was a third baseman coming up through the minors...?

[TracyThom]

Even with his Tommy John surgery this year, I think Austin Ross definitely deserves a spot on the Brewers Top 50 list.

[ramssuperbowl1999]

Even with his Tommy John surgery this year, I think Austin Ross definitely deserves a spot on the Brewers Top 50 list.

Why? No velo, got destroyed at high A, doesn't project as a starter and doesn't have the raw stuff to relieve.

[bullox]

Just wanted to say that this is an amazing contribution. You clearly put a lot of time and effort in to this and it shows. Thank you.

 

Just came in 3rd out of 150 or so in a Packer trivia quiz at work.

 

You must have an interesting job if you can get 150 people to participate in a Packers trivia quiz!

[82brewcrew11]

First off, outstanding work. I truly appreciate the time and effort you had to put into this. I do have a couple of questions.

 

When you say player X rates Y n the 20/80 scale, where are you getting that from? Do you have access to scouting reports? Are piecing together things you read and forming an opinion? Where exactly is that from?

 

Also, some of these reports seem very inconsistent. For instance, someone brings up Ross and your curt response roughly describes a half dozen guys on your list (Heckathorn, Hall, Otterman, Lavandero, Arnett, Lopez) including some ranked into the 30's. You call guys like Thornburg and Pena homer prone when thier career HR/9 are essentially identical to Nelson, Hellweg, Rogers, and Peralta and are right in line with the vast majority of the top pitching prospects in the game. You push Pena to the back the rotation because of his HR rate (which I already explained is not out of line at all) but Peralta and Nelson have #2 potential. This strikes me as strange because you would have a hard time telling the difference in career numbers between Nelson, Pena, and Peralta. Every report I have read says that Pena has just stuff that is maybe more fitly than Peralta or Nelson (including an effective sinker that is not in your report). Then there is the whole Khris Davis debate.

 

I'm not trying to knock your effort. I just seems as though you have formed opinions on certain players and offered reports based on those preconceived notions and then pass them off as a scouting report. This, of course, leads me back to my original question of where it is that you are getting your reports from.