Brewers call up Segura 8/6 (he started that night); Izturis to Washington on waivers

[thebruce44]

Bombers - sorry for being honest.

 

Spin it however you want. Look at the last two brewer playoff teams (2008 and 2011) and look at next years team. They won't contend.

 

Sure the Brewers have a chance of winning next year, but they're cetainly not favorites. I'd rather spend our limited resources on building for 2014 and beyond where I think the chance to win is far greater.

^ this

 

Stop backing up your absolute statements by saying other posters are homers or can't face facts. If you can't see the difference between the post you quoted by monty and your original post I don't know what to tell you.

 

I think the opinion you have in your head is probably the same as mine, you just present it so poorly that people have no choice but to disagree. Then when they try to lay that out, you gloss over it and make snide remarks about them. Come on.

[TooLiveBrew]

Check out Alcides stat line for this year...he's at what we would have considered peak for him a few years ago...a .340 obp is pretty great from a ss these days...castro's being dsolidly outhit by those other guys this year...Andrus leads all SS in obp and is a more successful runner...Castro has homers and a ton of ab's (which is because he gets out at a ridiculous rate)..

 

anyway, I don't think Segura is as good as any of those guys...or at least won't be for a few years, so i don't expect he'll be an allstar at least any time soon

Hmm, I will admit I didn't realize Castro had struggled with the bat this year. However, that doesn't change my opinion that his bat is going to be special for a MIF (it's easy to forget he's still in just his age-22 season). It's cool to see Escobar hitting so well, but he's never projected to hit for much power, and that's why I don't have him in the same caliber of bat as Castro. Like I said earlier, though, in terms of overall player value, Castro will have to outhit guys like Escobar & Andrus since Castro might only peak as an average defender at SS.

[slappzilla]

Stop backing up your absolute statements by saying other posters are homers or can't face facts. If you can't see the difference between the post you quoted by monty and your original post I don't know what to tell you.

What's the difference? We're both saying we don't see the Brewers contending in 2013, but we both hope they do. We both said we'd rather use 2013 as a year to sort of rebuild and get ready to seriously contend in 2014.

 

I think the opinion you have in your head is probably the same as mine, you just present it so poorly that people have no choice but to disagree. Then when they try to lay that out, you gloss over it and make snide remarks about them. Come on.

Can you quote a "snide" remark I made that was inaccurate or bollocks in anyway?

 

People can disagree with me. That's what these forums are about, debates, opinions, discussions, etc. I laid out my view and opinions and explained in detail why I feel the way I feel. If you can't see that "I don't know what to tell you".

[Bombers]

Bombers - sorry for being honest.

 

Spin it however you want. Look at the last two brewer playoff teams (2008 and 2011) and look at next years team. They won't contend.

 

Sure the Brewers have a chance of winning next year, but they're cetainly not favorites. I'd rather spend our limited resources on building for 2014 and beyond where I think the chance to win is far greater.

^ this

Sorry for being honest? Sorry for having a crystal ball that looks into the future and can predict team success? Let me know who will win the divisions next year so I can lay some money down. If you are cashing in 2013, you better want the following all traded:

1. Hart

2. Aoki

3. Ramirez

4. Gomez

 

Then NO good free agents will come here as our front office is saying we suck and we plan on sucking. (And dont think they will come running back in 2014 either after we finish with 90 losses.) We won't be able to get a good bench bat or good bullpen arm's. (As most of those guys go to contending teams) ... I am not advocating we go all in for 2013, but I would say we are closer to contending then we are away from it. I think we just stay the course, with the guys we have. If we suck and are in the same spot come August 2013, then maybe you trade the above. But I am not giving up on a year that hasn't even started when we have good players.

[monty57]

And what was your prediction for this year? Unforeseen circumstances pop up all the time; that is why this discussion about contending/not contending in 2013 is a little premature (Especially saying outright that we won't). No one is saying that we are guaranteed to contend in 2013 based on the roster we have now; the point is that there are another 9 months before Opening Day that could result in substantial changes to the roster so it makes no sense to count the Brewers out already. The same goes with virtually every team not called the Cubs, Astros, Twins, and Mariners

 

My stance prior to this season was I hoped they would compete for a division title, but if they slipped from the get-go, I hoped they would have a quick trigger finger to start selling, because I was scared of all the talent we would lose after the season. Remeber before the season I didn't know Marcum would get hurt and K-Rod would implode. I figured that trading Greinke, Marcum, K-Rod and maybe Hart would stock up our farm immensely. I assumed from the day Ramirez was signed that we would never be able to trade him, which is why I was surprised when the Dodgers not only showed interest, but seemed willing to pay the contract and send us good talent in trade.

 

While going into this season looked like we could be competitve, and required some things to go bad for us to be completly out of contention by trade deadline, I think next season will be kind of the opposite. We'll go in with some talent on the roster, but we will need a lot to go right in order for us to be buyers at the deadline. Just like a bunch of things went wrong this season, a lot could go right next season. I just think we will need as much good luck for next season to end in playoffs as we had bad luck for this year to go so bad... does that make sense?

 

A lot could change on the roster by opening next year, but I don't think we'll see a major facelift. The big decisions are on Hart - whether we trade him or hold onto him - and if we bring in a veteran (Marcum?) for the rotation. Smaller but still important decisions are on the arby guys, notably Gomez, Morgan, Loe, Veras and Parra as to which of them are worth the money they'll get in arby. Narveson is just a different story because of the injury. I would be surprised if Braun, Aoki, Ramirez, Segura, Weeks, Gamel, Lucroy, Maldonado, Gallardo, Fiers, Estrada, Axford and at least one of Peralta/Rogers/Thornburg aren't all on the roster next year. As long as all those guys are on the roster, we can make a pretty good prediction as to what our opening day lineup will look like.

 

So, I prefer to hold back a little and let the young guys get a little experience under their belts. Since Hart will be gone after the season, and holding onto him means Gamel is a bench player, then I'd try trading him for someone who could help out for six years going forward. Other than that, nothing major. And yes, we could still be competitive even with trading Hart. I hope we are, because that means a lot of our young guys are hitting the ground running, which would bode really well for the future.

[SRB]

Let's say Segura is a 4 WAR player next year. The difference between him and a replacement player is only 4 wins. Now you cut that down to 1/3 of a season and you are talking about 1.3 wins. I don't' think Segura will be quite that valuable next year so I see the difference between Segura and whomever we would pick up as pretty minimal over 2 months. It's not punting on next season before it even begins.

I agree that from a purely statistical standpoint a couple months of Segura isn't a difference-maker (although I'm not sure where you are pulling this replacement level SS from, considering the normal sort of last-resort SS is well below replacement, like Izturis or Yuniesky), but it still would make zero sense. It would basically be admitting that the team is not trying 100% to win in 2013. Maybe if the team is good you can look back with 20/20 hindsight and say that they were able to contend without that extra win (or whatever value you place on a few months of Segura), but conceding at the start of the season that you are not going to field the best team possible just for the possibility of getting an extra year of service-time is silly.

 

You can make the same type of argument to calculate that it takes Ryan Braun n games to add 1.0 WAR, and then say that we should bench Braun for n-1 games since it won't matter in the end and will lower the odds that he gets injured. That's not the way to run a competitive team in the real world.

[thebruce44]

Can you quote a "snide" remark I made that was inaccurate or bollocks in anyway?

 

Sure, thats what motivated my reply, but you just dismissed it. I will quote it again on the off chance you will actually absorb something someone else says.

 

Bombers - sorry for being honest.

 

Spin it however you want. Look at the last two brewer playoff teams (2008 and 2011) and look at next years team. They won't contend.

[slappzilla]

I fail to see the snide remark. The guy came at me because he didn't like my opinion on the matter and I responded to him.

 

 

Bombers -

 

Who said we're giving up on a year that hasn't even started?

 

I don't think the Brewers will contend next year with what the future seems to hold as far as the team they will put on the field. If they do, awesome. That be great.

 

I just do not see how anyone can seriously look at what the team will most likely be next year and seriously consider them contenders. That is my honest opinion on the matter.

 

I do think if certain moves are made, the Brewers have a more solid chance at contending in 2014. In 2014, the Brewers will know what they have in guys like Thornburg, Rogers, Peralta and Segura. They will know what they need to do rotation wise and lineup wise. Hopefully we find out what Gamel is made of next year as well. Maybe even Morris and/or Davis even. 2013 has too many xfactors to seriously consider the team a contender.

 

That's not me looking into a crystal ball. That's me giving you my opinon on the 2013-2014 Brewers.

[Roderick]

Our rotation will have question marks but say Marcum comes back you have Yo, Marcum, Fiers, and then 2 of Estrada, Peralta, Thornburg, Rogers, and Burgos. No reason to think that is a horrible rotation. The bullpen will need to be revamped and we will have contracts leaving that will allow us to do that.

 

No reason to think that is a good enough rotation to make the playoffs either - just too many question marks (especially since the bullpen will be a total revamp also). Maybe 1 or 2 pitchers will be good rotation starters, but the rest may end up like Ben Hendrickson.

 

Note, I am not against spending 2013 finding out which of those young pitchers will be a longterm piece of the puzzle, with the assumption of competing for the playoffs in 2014. But if that is the staff we are rolling out, we should try to trade Hart during the offseason (where he will have more value than midseason trade).

[Raw Biz]

Stop backing up your absolute statements by saying other posters are homers or can't face facts. If you can't see the difference between the post you quoted by monty and your original post I don't know what to tell you.

What's the difference? We're both saying we don't see the Brewers contending in 2013, but we both hope they do. We both said we'd rather use 2013 as a year to sort of rebuild and get ready to seriously contend in 2014.

 

I think the opinion you have in your head is probably the same as mine, you just present it so poorly that people have no choice but to disagree. Then when they try to lay that out, you gloss over it and make snide remarks about them. Come on.

Can you quote a "snide" remark I made that was inaccurate or bollocks in anyway?

 

People can disagree with me. That's what these forums are about, debates, opinions, discussions, etc. I laid out my view and opinions and explained in detail why I feel the way I feel. If you can't see that "I don't know what to tell you".

 

I don't think it's your opinion that people have a problem with. It's how you present it. I know this is a message board and almost everything that people say on here is an opinion and should be treated as such. However, when you dismiss other's opinions and present statements as fact when they are not, it rubs people the wrong way. Sure the Brewers' chances of making the playoffs next year are probably slim. However, to just say "they won't contend" as a fact is wrong.

 

I know it's semantics and everything but the way you present your arguments/opinions will go a long way in how people view/respect you. It seems as if you've had problems from day one here with your Braun snubbed from Derby thread, Olt to the Marlins "lock", etc. Sometimes you have valid arguments but when they are presented in a "know-it-all" fashion, you won't get very far.

[thebruce44]

I fail to see the snide remark. The guy came at me because he didn't like my opinion on the matter and I responded to him.

 

Who said we're giving up on a year that hasn't even started?

 

I don't think the Brewers will contend next year with what the future seems to hold as far as the team they will put on the field. If they do, awesome. That be great.

 

This is a much better way to present your opinion.

 

But no, he didn't not like your opinion. He (and nearly every other poster here who refutes or mocks your posting style) didn't like the way you presented it or the extreme to which you went.

 

At this point I don't see you being able to understand this, so I'm going to just move on but I hope you realize that if this many people are questioning the way you present some of your ideas, maybe there is something you could change.

[rluzinski]

I'd say the Brewers will be at the .500 mark next year.

 

As others are suggesting, it's kind of foolish to try and project the 2013 when it's August, 2012. The odds of the Brewers projected to have 90+ wins in 2012 is probably pretty low but 1/3rd of all teams are going to win or lose 6 more games than they are projected to. A team just needs to have to get to about that 85-87 win projection to start being a realistic contender.

 

I'm not convinced that the Brewers' 2013 rotation will be the weak link. Here are some updated ZiPS projections:

 

Fiers: 3.28

Gallardo: 3.68

Estrada: 4.5

Peralta: 4.65

 

You have to take projections of young players with a grain of salt, of course, but I'm actually excited about the rotation next year. That is a cheap and potentially solid group of guys there. Depending on what Melvin does in free agency, we could see realistically see an above average starting rotation at a very below average cost.

 

"I hope you realize that if this many people are questioning the way you present some of your ideas, maybe there is something you could change."

 

I think he's already convinced himself that any resistance he gets is simply a byproduct of his audience not being able to handle "the truth". Where we are blinded by fandom, his can see the light.

[TooLiveBrew]

I fail to see the snide remark. The guy came at me because he didn't like my opinion on the matter and I responded to him.

Dude, this isn't a bar fight. The sooner you lose the me-vs.-the-world attitude, the sooner it'll be enjoyable to read most of your posts.

[slappzilla]

He debated/refuted a statement and I debated/refuted the topic at hand back. There was no name calling, no flaming. It was a debate.

 

If I push something as a fact and I am wrong, call me on it. If you're right and I'm wrong surely it will be reflected and I will fold. I took a beating on the Olt call which was well deserved. The deal just seemed to make too much sense for both sides and I assumed it would get done. I was wrong and took my lashings accordingly.

 

I still truly believe Kemp snubbed Braun, but that thread was locked and the discussion was subsequently ceased so I dropped it. Anytime that discussion comes around anywhere I will stick to my snub theory till the cows come home.

 

As others are suggesting, it's kind of foolish to try and project the 2013 when it's August, 2012.

Why?

 

I think we can all come pretty close to guessing next years rotation and lineup, no? Going off that, can't we all form our own opinions on how the team will do?

[Bombers]

I'd say the Brewers will be at the .500 mark next year.

 

As others are suggesting, it's kind of foolish to try and project the 2013 when it's August, 2012.

 

I'm not convinced that the Brewers' 2013 rotation will be the weak link. Here are some updated ZiPS projections:

 

Fiers: 3.28

Gallardo: 3.68

Estrada: 4.5

Peralta: 4.65

 

You have to take projections of young players with a grain of salt, of course, but I'm actually excited about the rotation next year. That is a cheap and potentially solid group of guys there. Depending on what Melvin does in free agency, we could see realistically see an above average starting rotation at a very below average cost.

This is where I am at. I am actually pretty excited to see a home grown starting 5. If 2013 ends up being a tough year, hopefully we learn something about the above players. Then when 2014 hits, we have another wave of arms to pull from. Our offense should always be in the top half. (Barring injury) ... so to contend, we need quality SP's and a pen that doesn't wet it's pants with a lead.

 

For me, I am excited for spring training 2013 to see Fiers, Peralta, Thornburg, Estrada, compete for their spot in the rotation. (I know Fiers has his locked but do you have him as a 2? a 4? Spring training probably will determine that.) Like rluz said, I am excited!

[Bombers]

I fail to see the snide remark. The guy came at me because he didn't like my opinion on the matter and I responded to him.

Dude, this isn't a bar fight. The sooner you lose the me-vs.-the-world attitude, the sooner it'll be enjoyable to read most of your posts.

Well said TLB. But I will apologize for "coming at you" Slappzilla. It wasn't my intention. Like others have said, to say as fact that the Brewers will not contend, no how no way, is a little short sighted. A fellow baseball fan would know that. But anyhow, lets stay focused on the thread topic now.

[monty57]

I'd say the Brewers will be at the .500 mark next year.

 

As others are suggesting, it's kind of foolish to try and project the 2013 when it's August, 2012. The odds of the Brewers projected to have 90+ wins in 2012 is probably pretty low but 1/3rd of all teams are going to win or lose 6 more games than they are projected to. A team just needs to have to get to about that 85-87 win projection to start being a realistic contender.

 

I'm not convinced that the Brewers' 2013 rotation will be the weak link. Here are some updated ZiPS projections:

 

Fiers: 3.28

Gallardo: 3.68

Estrada: 4.5

Peralta: 4.65

 

You have to take projections of young players with a grain of salt, of course, but I'm actually excited about the rotation next year. That is a cheap and potentially solid group of guys there. Depending on what Melvin does in free agency, we could see realistically see an above average starting rotation at a very below average cost.

 

"I hope you realize that if this many people are questioning the way you present some of your ideas, maybe there is something you could change."

 

I think he's already convinced himself that any resistance he gets is simply a byproduct of his audience not being able to handle "the truth". Where we are blinded by fandom, his can see the light.

 

Those numbers should come with a standard deviation, as the 3.28 projection would seem to put all the risk on the upside. I doubt he'll post a substantially lower ERA for the season, but he could post a substantially higher one. Am I wrong in assuming that there is a much greater chance of Fiers, Estrada or Peralta being over 5.00 then there is of Gallardo being over 5.00? It would be great if we just found a new ace in Fiers, but what are the chances his ERA inflates as the league gets to know him a bit better?

 

My worry is that Melvin will look at numbers like these and he too will "get excited," leading to another Greinke-style trade, gutting the farm for another two-year "window." If Melvin "goes all in" and does another Greinke-style trade and then it turns out the Fiers and Estrada were "smoke and mirrors" this season, we've blown the farm and the "window" never even had a chance to open.

 

Again, I prefer to hold back and let the young guys get some experience. Be patient, create some financial and roster flexibility and we should be able to be good for an extended period.

[dlk9s]

Maybe I'm just giving Melvin too much credit, but I really don't think he's looking at 2013 as an "all-in" year or a year in which he truly believes the Brewers have an excellent shot at contending from the get-go. Thus, I don't see him doing anything silly like making some gigantic trade for a stud or making some dumb, long-term, expensive signing in the offseason (Greinke is the one I could see and we could debate that all day long).

 

That's not to say that the Brewers can't contend or won't contend, but I think Melvin is smart enough to realize that they likely won't go into the offseason or come out of spring training has serious contenders. They should be good enough to be competitive and therefore if things fall the right way, they could contend, but I don't see any big moves coming until they are squarely in the race around next year's trade deadline. And even then I wouldn't assume Melvin would make a big move.

[Lee16]

So uh, how about that Jean Segura guy, huh?

[fondybrewfan]

Hey Segura is starting again today. Good luck against Cueto kid.

[xisxisxis]

Maybe I'm just giving Melvin too much credit, but I really don't think he's looking at 2013 as an "all-in" year or a year in which he truly believes the Brewers have an excellent shot at contending from the get-go.

 

To beat the poker analogy to death, I think Dougie goes all-in every year, but he does on the deal and usually with a pair of number cards. He rarely waits to see what happens after a few cards then goes all in (except for 2008) and that was just a case of luck with the Brewers backing into the playiffs because of the epic fail by the mets.

 

As far as what Dougie thinks, he will never say the goal of the brewers is anything but going for it. Day 1 when he was hired he refused to project the Brewers path and basically stated they want to be competitive every year. Getting Greinke and Marcum was clearly an attempt to maximize the last year of Prince, you could make an argument that with 2013 the last year of Hart any majoring deLing this offseason could be another all-in argument to fans. I think his public statements are almost always an attempt to maximiza ticket sales.

[TooLiveBrew]

So uh, how about that Jean Segura guy, huh?

http://i.imgur.com/nQzJj.jpg

[Bombers]

So uh, how about that Jean Segura guy, huh?

http://i.imgur.com/nQzJj.jpg

This is probably one of the funniest things I have seen on here

[thebruce44]

http://i3.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/000/177/761/memes-the-man-the-meme.jpg

[slappzilla]

Maybe I'm just giving Melvin too much credit, but I really don't think he's looking at 2013 as an "all-in" year or a year in which he truly believes the Brewers have an excellent shot at contending from the get-go. Thus, I don't see him doing anything silly like making some gigantic trade for a stud or making some dumb, long-term, expensive signing in the offseason (Greinke is the one I could see and we could debate that all day long).

I think he was saying that in a way in his interview yesterday when he said they have to find out what they have in their young arms come next year.