Brewers call up Segura 8/6 (he started that night); Izturis to Washington on waivers

[pogokat]

I would expect him to be something more like a .725-.750 ops kind of guy...i look at his lines and i see erick aybar, not tulo...could he peaks at .825-.850? maybe...but those guys are extremely rare at ss...jJimmy Rollins was an MVP with those numbers...I think Jean's got some power---but 10-15 hr power...unless you hit .310 or 20 hr's, it's really hard to have an ops much over .800..

 

so, if Jean is a .280-.290 hitter at peak with 15 to 20 hr's he might scratch at all star level...but i'd expect him to be good, not great the next couple years---.260/.330/.370 or so...and then up from there...

 

anyway, my point was that the Brewers need a guy like that badly on the team...and having him under control for 6.5 years for Greinke is awesome...but he doesn't profile as much better than that...you gotta remember, when you are looking at him in comparison to other hyped SS prospects like Castro, Escobar, or Andrus (all who i think represent better versions of the same type player) you can't lose track that Seggy was older in the high minors...in fact, Starlin Castro is YOUNGER than Segura..

 

so, I'm not trying to knock Segura---it's just that I think it's unreasonable to project him as better than all of the best young shortstops in the game...it's possible, but unlikely

[TooLiveBrew]

I will nitpick with your post & say that Starlin Castro is a step above all the other guys you mentioned. However, I could see you lumping him together with d-first SSs like Escobar & Andrus if you're not a believer in Castro developing into an asset as a defender.

 

His bat is way better, and *I'm* assuming he'll turn into at worst an avg. overall SS defender... which, combined with what I think he'll do as a hitter, would make him lots more valuable than guys like Andrus & Escobra.

[pogokat]

Check out Alcides stat line for this year...he's at what we would have considered peak for him a few years ago...a .340 obp is pretty great from a ss these days...castro's being dsolidly outhit by those other guys this year...Andrus leads all SS in obp and is a more successful runner...Castro has homers and a ton of ab's (which is because he gets out at a ridiculous rate)..

 

anyway, I don't think Segura is as good as any of those guys...or at least won't be for a few years, so i don't expect he'll be an allstar at least any time soon

[dlk9s]

[sarcasm]Segura is on pace to be the worst SS of all-time.[/sarcasm]

[Funketown]

[sarcasm]Segura is on pace to be the worst SS of all-time.[/sarcasm]

 

[sarcasm]False. Jeter.[/sarcasm]

[slappzilla]

There wasn't any reason to have kept him in the minors until June 2013, unless you already give up on the 2013 season, which there is no reason to do.

This isn't the thread to debate it, but the Brewers will not compete next year. Not with the rotation they're going to roll out. You can only have so many xfactors. 2013 Brewers are the 2010 Brewers. Seriously.

 

For that reason, I wish Segura would not have been brought up till June 2013. He's only 22. I don't care what anyone says, min wage Ransom or some other min wage .600OPS guy would not hurt the Brewers that much for the first 2 months of the season, unless you expect Segura to be a .800OPS guy right out of the gate which is a bit of a stretch.

[fondybrewfan]

Do we really need to go down this road again. It is August of 2012; how exactly do you know what the rotation will be in 2013? It is ludicrous to say we can't compete in 2013 with a whole offseason ahead and a team that has a lot of leftovers from an NLCS team.

[slappzilla]

It's not ludicrous at all.

 

Take it to the correct thread and I will lay it out all day. Most people here are informed brewer fans. It's not hard to lay out next years rotation. Even if you want to include Marcum in it, it's tough to call it a contending rotation in a pitching favored league.

 

I'd love the Brewers to compete, but I'm not going into the 2013 season blindly thinking they will.

 

Actually, nevermind. I forgot the Brewers are a lock to resign Greinke. We got 2013 covered.

[fondybrewfan]

You mean the same way Olt was a lock to go to MIA? You mean that kind of lock?

 

Did anyone have Grienke or Marcum penciled into the 2011 rotation in August of 2010?

[slappzilla]

I'd say the circumstances are a bit different to say the least.

[logan82]

There wasn't any reason to have kept him in the minors until June 2013, unless you already give up on the 2013 season, which there is no reason to do. The Brewers can compete next year, so why would the play some horrendous free agent like Cesar Izturis for 1-2 months when the best SS in the system was healthy?

 

Not that Segura alone is that huge of a difference maker, but keeping him in the minors basically concedes the 2013 season just so you can get another year of team control way down the line.

Let's say Segura is a 4 WAR player next year. The difference between him and a replacement player is only 4 wins. Now you cut that down to 1/3 of a season and you are talking about 1.3 wins. I don't' think Segura will be quite that valuable next year so I see the difference between Segura and whomever we would pick up as pretty minimal over 2 months. It's not punting on next season before it even begins.

 

Cody Ransom for example has been just a tick below average with the bat this year so 2 months of Ransom wouldn't hurt much and would have gained us Segura's age 30 season.

 

Edit: Actually his year 29 season so one of his prime years.

[3and2Fastball]

It was fun watching him last night. He looked nervous, a little, I don't think he took a single pitch all night and if he did it was only one or two pitches. I'm sure they will coach him up a little and let him know that if he swings at every pitch MLB pitchers will never throw him strikes.

 

While I don't expect a Joe Morgan/Wade Boggs approach at the plate, his minor league stats show an OBP 54 points above his BA (.313/.367) so again I chalk last night up to nerves. He'll learn to get more patient and him being in the lineup adds to the fun of watching the Crew the rest of the season

[slappzilla]

Let's say Segura is a 4 WAR player next year. The difference between him and a replacement player is only 4 wins. Now you cut that down to 1/3 of a season and you are talking about 1.3 wins. I don't' think Segura will be quite that valuable next year so I see the difference between Segura and whomever we would pick up as pretty minimal over 2 months. It's not punting on next season before it even begins.

 

Cody Ransom for example has been just a tick below average with the bat this year so 2 months of Ransom wouldn't hurt much and would have gained us Segura's age 30 season.

 

exactly

 

Just like I said earlier...

 

min wage Ransom or some other min wage SS .600OPS guy would not hurt the Brewers that much for the first 2 months of the season

Even if you don't like my "we won't be contending in 2013 anyways" attitude, and you think the Brewers will contend, they still should have waited till next June to bring up Segura, in my opinion.

 

I fail to see the benefit of bringing him up now.

[gregmag]

Escobar's good year has been seriously BABIP inflated. Last year: .285. This year: .358. He's always had some pretty wide BABIP swings, and since his secondary offense in the minors was nearly nonexistent, those swings have told his story. He has a consistent walk rate just over 4%, which is terrible. His ISO this year has increased from about .090 the past couple of years to about .110, which I would guess is decent for a ss if he can sustain it. If things go well for him, he could settle in at around .280/.320/.400. With his defense, that's a good player.

 

Can Segura hit better than that? I would hope so. I think he'll walk more, and I think he has a better chance than Escobar of settling in at a .120 ISO or beyond. Reports on his defense, of course, are all over the place. He may be less speed-dependent than Escobar, which could mean he'll hold more of his value, but who knows. It will be interesting to watch the two of them develop.

 

I'm glad the team brought Segura up now. Most players need some adjustment time in the majors, so if we're planning to compete in 2014, it won't hurt for him to have a full year under his belt. He's a good age for a rookie, and he doesn't seem to have work left to do in the minors, unless his defense ends up looking rough. I do hope they'll give Bianchi a look as a backup option.

[xisxisxis]

I fail to see the benefit of bringing him up now.

 

There is a benefit (someone mentioned it earlier). Dougie wants this time to audition Segura to see if he can be the regular SS for the Brewers next year or if he has to find another abysmal 1 year SS. The benefit is entirely the GMs, but we want Dougie happy so he never leaves and we never have a real chance at a World Series because he puts together a roster ala Dr. Frankenstein.

[slappzilla]

Dougie can roster a min wage SS and start him the first 2 months of next years season. Then when Segura comes up in June said min wage SS can be the backup, get sent down, whatever. Like someone else pointed out, the difference in performance will not be that noticeable unless you think Segura is going to be an immediate world beater, and even then it won't make that much of a difference.

 

I'm glad the team brought Segura up now. Most players need some adjustment time in the majors, so if we're planning to compete in 2014, it won't hurt for him to have a full year under his belt. He's a good age for a rookie, and he doesn't seem to have work left to do in the minors, unless his defense ends up looking rough. I do hope they'll give Bianchi a look as a backup option.

so from June 1st 2013 till the end of the 2013 season (roughly 4.2 months) wouldn't be enough adjustment time?

 

The merits of bringing him up now vs. the merits of bringing him up June next year far out weigh each other.

[monty57]

I fail to see the benefit of bringing him up now.

 

They need any PR they can get at this point to keep people coming to games. They're probably going to lose money this season, and every person who doesn't attend a game is more revenue lost. Segura will be looked at by most fans as "the guy we traded Greinke for," so he may be worth going to the game to watch. Plus, if he hits and plays exciting defense, fans can feel like better things are on the way, so they'll renew their season tickets. Nothing like putting pressure on the kid.

 

Dougie wants this time to audition Segura to see if he can be the regular SS for the Brewers next year or if he has to find another abysmal 1 year SS.

 

While there's probably some truth to this, I'd like to think that Melvin had some kind of plan for Segura while he was trading for him. He should have known then whether or not he's slated to be the opening day SS in 2013. While there's a good arguement to be made that it would be better for the franchise to keep him in the minors until June (or whatever) 2013, it seems pretty obvious that he is going to be the Brewers' opening day SS next year. I think the only reason he went to AA is that Melvin wanted to see if he could save a couple hundred thousand by getting someone to claim Izturis on waivers rather than simply dumping him. If that was the plan from the start, I do have to give him credit for that move.

 

I would've probably called up Bianchi and left Segura in the minors until we got another season out of him. However, if he is going to be the opening day starter next year, and it isn't going to cost us service time by bringing him up now, then I guess I'd rather see him up now to "get his feet wet" then have him learn on the fly next year.

[Bombers]

This isn't the thread to debate it, but the Brewers will not compete next year. Not with the rotation they're going to roll out. You can only have so many xfactors. 2013 Brewers are the 2010 Brewers. Seriously.

 

For that reason, I wish Segura would not have been brought up till June 2013. He's only 22. I don't care what anyone says, min wage Ransom or some other min wage .600OPS guy would not hurt the Brewers that much for the first 2 months of the season, unless you expect Segura to be a .800OPS guy right out of the gate which is a bit of a stretch.

 

I don't believe you can honestly say the Brewers have no shot at contending next year. Of course they do. Many factors play into it. The Cardinals will keep regressing as they get older. The Cubs are the Cubs. So that leaves the Reds and Pirates to contend with next year.

 

On August 7th, 2011, did you have Washington penciled in with the best record in the NL on August 7th, 2012? Awesome.

 

And I am sure after all the moves Detroit made, you had the White Sox sitting in first place (considering their 3rd place finish and a losing record in 2011)

 

The Brewers rotation does have question marks. But you don't know what you don't know. I am sick and tired of this "we have no rotation for next year thus we are going to suck mentatlity." Guys can step up and perform (see Mike Fiers.)

[monty57]

I don't believe you can honestly say the Brewers have no shot at contending next year. Of course they do.

 

And I have a shot at winning Powerball. It's all about odds, and I have to decide whether it's worth putting all my money into Powerball tickets or whether I have other options for my money which would have a better chance for success. I have limited money, so what do I do?

 

Of course the Brewers' chance of winning is better than Powerball odds, but it's the same concept. The Brewers have what they have, which includes a limited amount of money and human capital to "spend" if they choose to improve the 2013 roster for a chance to win it all. It is in defining the "end goal" and utilizing these limited resources in the most efficient manner to eventually reach that "end goal" that spurs debate.

 

The ongoing debate on this board is in defining the "end goal." Is it to build a team designed for continual success or is it to build a team with a window of optimal chance. The window of optimal chance crowd believes the window has to eventually close, so we need to do everything possible to get a World Series title prior to the window closing. The continual success crowd doesn't believe the window has to close unless it is slammed shut by bad moves made while trying to "win now."

 

Sure the Brewers have a chance of winning next year, but they're cetainly not favorites. I'd rather spend our limited resources on building for 2014 and beyond where I think the chance to win is far greater.

[slappzilla]

Bombers - sorry for being honest.

 

Spin it however you want. Look at the last two brewer playoff teams (2008 and 2011) and look at next years team. They won't contend.

 

Sure the Brewers have a chance of winning next year, but they're cetainly not favorites. I'd rather spend our limited resources on building for 2014 and beyond where I think the chance to win is far greater.

^ this

[slappzilla]

Melvin on Bill Michaels show right now.

 

Said the Brewers hadn't planned on bringing up Segura till sometime next year but the Nats called about Izturis, and his people in Huntsville considered Segura to be MLB ready.

 

Take that for what it's worth.

 

Also mentioned rotation next year will consist of "a few young arms". Said SP FA market is thin and the Brewers will more than likely turn to their own (farm) guys.

[jjfanec]

Okay so we cannot contend next year but the Pirates can contend this year? Lets look at their current roster and tell me why it cannot be done. Our lineup will have Braun, Hart, Weeks, Ramirez, Lucroy, Aoki, Segura who is almost automatically an upgrade over what we had this year and one more OFer. Our rotation will have question marks but say Marcum comes back you have Yo, Marcum, Fiers, and then 2 of Estrada, Peralta, Thornburg, Rogers, and Burgos. No reason to think that is a horrible rotation. The bullpen will need to be revamped and we will have contracts leaving that will allow us to do that. I guess I just dont see why we are automatically the Astros next year. Do I think we win the division - nope, but do I think there is a decent chance we can be in WC contention in August - sure

[slappzilla]

No one said we are automatically the Astros next year.

 

What we're saying is there are at least 5 teams in the NL that will make the playoffs over us.

 

I'd say the Brewers will be at the .500 mark next year. either a couple games below .500 or right at .500

[monty57]

We're not "automatically the Astros." The question to me is really how much do we do to "go for it" next year. I certainly wouldn't blow things up, but if my choice were as simple as (A) Trade Hart for a Segura-type prospect, shore up the bullpen with so-so free agents and guys from the minors and give a one-year deal to a decent vet like Marcum or (B) Keep Hart and lose him after the season for the #50 draft pick, guarantee multiple years at eight figures to a B-level free agent starting pitcher, and trade some decent prospects for bullpen arms, I would take option A.

 

Now, if we were in a different situation... let's say we had a couple of proven stud starting pitchers, then I would look at things a little differently. Right now, the odds of our making the playoffs don't look like they're good enough to spend our limited resources (in money and human capital) on substantial upgrades for next year.

 

I hope the Brewers compete in 2013. That really would mean that Estrada and Fiers are for real, and Peralta/Rogers hit the ground running. I just hope they don't cripple themselves financially or by trading useful prospects in order to "go for it." If Melvin leave himself some financial flexibility, then he will know where an upgrade is most needed for the playoff run. Financial flexibility (and having prospects you're okay with trading) are a good thing. Melvin doesn't have to blow his wad before the season starts. He did this season, but hasn't in seasons past, so I think he realizes this.

[fondybrewfan]

And what was your prediction for this year? Unforeseen circumstances pop up all the time; that is why this discussion about contending/not contending in 2013 is a little premature (Especially saying outright that we won't). No one is saying that we are guaranteed to contend in 2013 based on the roster we have now; the point is that there are another 9 months before Opening Day that could result in substantial changes to the roster so it makes no sense to count the Brewers out already. The same goes with virtually every team not called the Cubs, Astros, Twins, and Mariners