Brewers 2013 payroll budget

[PKBadger]

Let me start by saying that if you read the Deadspin articles when they posted leaked NBA team financial documents, you shouldn't fool yourself into thinking that the owners are "losing" money.

 

I tried to mock up a Brewers 2013 salary estimate by looking at the info on Cot's. Came up with ~$64 million, which is pretty close to what some others have posted. Check my math though.

 

All numbers are in millions, and an asterisk means I'm guessing at the arbitration figure. $480K seems to be the league minimum.

 

Pitchers

 

Gallardo - 8

Estrada - 3* (currently making $486K, Arb 1)

Axford - 2* (currently making $525K, Arb 1)

Fiers - 0.48

Thornburg - 0.48

Peralta - 0.48

Rogers - 0.48

Henderson - 0.48

Wolf (buyout) - 1.5

 

Subtotal = $16.9 million

 

Position Players

 

Hart - 10.333

Weeks - 11

Segura - 0.48

Ramirez - 10

Braun - 9.5

Lucroy - 0.85

Aoki - 1.25

Gomez - 3* (currently making $1.9625, Arb 4)

Maldonado - 0.48

Gamel - 0.48

 

Subtotal = $47.373 million

 

Grand Total (18 players) = $64.273 million

 

____________________________________________

 

 

I think this leaves about $25-30 million in the budget to fill the following:

 

4 pitchers - presumably 1 SP and 3 RP. Need a LH reliever.

2 outfielders

1 utility infielder who can play SS

 

 

Let me know if you agree/disagree with any of this.

[Roderick]

I have Braun as a salary of $8.5M plus $2.5M prorated signing bonus, or a total of $11.0M.

[slappzilla]

Let me start by saying that if you read the Deadspin articles when they posted leaked NBA team financial documents, you shouldn't fool yourself into thinking that the owners are "losing" money.

 

I tried to mock up a Brewers 2013 salary estimate by looking at the info on Cot's. Came up with ~$64 million, which is pretty close to what some others have posted. Check my math though.

 

All numbers are in millions, and an asterisk means I'm guessing at the arbitration figure. $480K seems to be the league minimum.

 

Pitchers

 

Gallardo - 8

Estrada - 3* (currently making $486K, Arb 1)

Axford - 2* (currently making $525K, Arb 1)

Fiers - 0.48

Thornburg - 0.48

Peralta - 0.48

Rogers - 0.48

Henderson - 0.48

Wolf (buyout) - 1.5

 

Subtotal = $16.9 million

 

Position Players

 

Hart - 10.333

Weeks - 11

Segura - 0.48

Ramirez - 10

Braun - 9.5

Lucroy - 0.85

Aoki - 1.25

Gomez - 3* (currently making $1.9625, Arb 4)

Maldonado - 0.48

Gamel - 0.48

 

Subtotal = $47.373 million

 

Grand Total (18 players) = $64.273 million

 

____________________________________________

 

 

I think this leaves about $25-30 million in the budget to fill the following:

 

4 pitchers - presumably 1 SP and 3 RP. Need a LH reliever.

2 outfielders

1 utility infielder who can play SS

 

 

Let me know if you agree/disagree with any of this.

I agree with it.

 

I agree with what you think they'll add as well.

 

I'm hoping the SS/utility guy is Bianchi or someone min wage.

 

I think next year's payroll will be around the $80M mark just because there's no reason to inflate it going off your list as far as what we need. As I've said before (and Melvin hinted at in his interview), next year is a year where the Brewers see what they have in the young guys (Thornburg/Peralta/Rogers/segura/Henderson). After seeing what we have out of those guys next year, I think the 2014 payroll will be inflated because Doug will spend the $$$ on quality options to fill whatever holes the team has.

[JohnBriggs12]

True, they have a lot of inexpensive pitching options and the everyday lineup looks set. But Attanasio's MO is that when he has money in his budget he'll take shots at guys in areas of need like he did with Gagne in 08 and Hoffman in 09. It might not be a FA. It could be someone's salary dump. His thinking seems to be he's willing to spend X number of dollars, and if he's under that number initially, he'll gamble with what essentially in his mind is house money. I could see him taking a flyer on a Carlos Marmol, who the Cubs would gladly unload for next to nothing in return. Marmol is due to make $9.8 million next year. The Cubs would have to throw in some money, but Marmol is a guy who's upside might be worth gambling some house money.

 

Let me make this clear, I'm not advocating it one way or the other. I'm just pointing out Attanasio's likely moves based on his history.

[slappzilla]

I wish he'd just roll over that extra 2013 money into 2014 when we know better of what we have but I agree it's his MO to spend what they can and compete now vs. bettering the team for the future.

[Outlander]

PKBadger,

 

Narveson was left off your list but not sure how much he will be looking for with his injury. Maybe you don't think they will offer him a contract along with Parra, Loe, and Veras. Morgan is probably gone as well.

[rluzinski]

Thank's PKBadger.

 

For the starting rotation, after Gallardo, Fiers and Estrada, I would guess the Brewers sign a free agent starting pitcher and fill the last spot internally. I could see them budget something like $12 mil for the free agent. Even though I wish he wouldn't, Melvin will probably throw another $10 mil at the bullpen. The only significant question marks are for position players is at CF/RF/1B (perhaps SS as well but I doubt it). I like the idea of Hart, Gamel, Aoki and Gomez taking care of it but who knows.

[monty57]

First off, PK's list shows how important pre-arby guys are. Trading Greinke and plugging Segura into the SS saved probably $5MM that would've went to pick up another so-so SS. Having a few pre-arby pitchers keeps our payroll down. I've went from worrying that extending Greinke and signing a SS would mean we were going to have to trade Hart and/or Ramirez to feeling that we'll be able to field a decent team with an $80-90MM budget.

 

Going off the list, I'd guess they'll add one SP on a one-year deal at around $10MM (Marcum or another guy trying to rebuild his value). That puts us around $74MM. I'd guess the backup SS will be either Ransom or Bianchi, so $74.5MM. I'd guess we'll add two "setup guys" for around $4-5MM each, with the other bullpen spot going to a prospect, so $83-85MM. Schafer will have one backup OF spot, and the other will go to a $1MM vet. That'd put us around $85MM for payroll, with plenty of room to add payroll if we're competitive around trade deadline.

 

One alternate to this is that I think the Greinke offer will stay on the table, and on the off chance he tests the market and finds out that the Brewer deal is the best one out there, I think the payroll will be in the mid-90's.

 

Another alternate scenario would be to trade Hart for a prospect, putting Aoki in RF and Gamel at 1B. If we did this, we could go into the season with a payroll under $80MM. We'd probably be a little worse in 2013 and would probably be better from 2014-2020.

[PKBadger]

Roderick - Cot's shows Braun at $9.5 million in 2013 and $11 million in 2014.

 

Outlander - I figured Narveson was a question mark since his health and pitching ability is uncertain at this time. And I tried to include only the players I thought to be "locks" for the roster. I feel like Melvin might give Parra one last shot since he's a lefty and in his last arbitration year. Hoping that we cut ties with Loe, Veras and Morgan for better options.

[torts]

you guys need to look at baseball reference, they have a great setup for all payroll and arbitration years for players

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIL/2012-roster.shtml

 

next season garunteed payroll, at this time, with no options exercised and including buyouts puts the 2013 Brewers payroll at $49.8 million dollars. they currently have 10 players in arbitration, (4 1st yr, 2 2nd yr, 3 3rd yr, 1 4th yr) with estimated cost of $40.2 million dollars. other players to fill out the roster, they need about 8 to fill the 25-man, based on 1 yr avg of pre-arb contracts, those 8 players cost about $5.8 million dollars.

 

The estimated payroll total for 2013, with no options exercised, all arbitration cases payed out on average per year, and the additional pre-arb players to fill out roster, puts the brewers at $95.8 million dollars.

 

the biggest variable will be what players are awarded in arbitration. there is definitely a case for Axford to not get above the avg for 1st yr arby players, and its assuming players like Morgan, Parra, and Veras are all on the team to collect their 3rd yr arbitration contracts (all will be over current contracts of $2.ish mil a yr). So payroll could be "slimmed down" by winning arbitration cases against these players and paying them less than they're asking for.

 

this also still accounts for Kottaras and Ishikawa still on the payroll, too, as 1st and 2nd yr arb players.

[logan82]

Roderick - Cot's shows Braun at $9.5 million in 2013 and $11 million in 2014.

You forgot to add in his bous paid in 4 equal instalments spread over 2012 - 2015.

 

5 years/$105M (2016-20), plus 2021 option

 

signed extension with Milwaukee 4/21/11

$10M signing bonus (paid in 4 equal installments each April 1 from 2012 to 2015)

16:$19M, 17:$19M, 18:$19M, 19:$18M, 20:$16M, 21:$15M mutual option ($4M buyout)

price of option may increase to $20M based on MVP, Silver Slugger, Gold Glove awards (if earned, award escalators are deferred without interest)

$18M in salary ($4M each in 2016-18 and $3M each in 2019-20) deferred without interest, to be paid in equal installments each July 1 from 2022 to 2031

no-trade protection

 

8 years/$45M (2008-15)

 

signed extension with Milwaukee 5/15/08, replacing 1 year/$0.455M contract for 2008 renewed 3/2/08

$2.3M signing bonus

08:$0.455M, 09:$0.745M, 10:$1M, 11:$4M, 12:$6M, 13:$8.5M, 14:$10M, 15:$12M

may earn additional $6M if Braun qualifies as a Super 2 after 2009 season, increasing salaries to: 10:$3.5M, 11:$5.5M, 12:$7.5M, 13:$9M (did not qualify)

award bonus: $50,000 for All Star selection

no-trade clause 2008-11, limited no-trade clause 2012-13 (may block deals to 12 clubs), limited no-trade clause 2014-15 (may block deals to 6 clubs)

perks: suite for home games

Braun to donate $25,000 annually to club charity

[slappzilla]

The estimated payroll total for 2013, with no options exercised, all arbitration cases payed out on average per year, and the additional pre-arb players to fill out roster, puts the brewers at $95.8 million dollars.

I'd bet the farm the 2013 payroll doesn't even come within $5M of $95M.

[Team Hoyt]

I would agree with that. I see the payroll anywhere between 80-90 mil.

[torts]

The estimated payroll total for 2013, with no options exercised, all arbitration cases payed out on average per year, and the additional pre-arb players to fill out roster, puts the brewers at $95.8 million dollars.

I'd bet the farm the 2013 payroll doesn't even come within $5M of $95M.

 

I agree, that estimation accounts for arbitration players earning more than they'll actually get. just by reducing a couple arb awards would take it down $5mil

[JohnBriggs12]

I would hope Morgan, Parra, Veras, and Loe are all non-tendered. Their open market values are all below what they'd get in arbitration, so even if you wanted one or two of them back (why would you?), you try to get them to agree ahead of time on a lower number.

[PKBadger]

Roderick - Cot's shows Braun at $9.5 million in 2013 and $11 million in 2014.

You forgot to add in his bous paid in 4 equal instalments spread over 2012 - 2015.

 

 

I was going off the 2012-2017 payroll obligations spreadsheet posted on the Cot's site.

 

If you're correct, it's his mistake and not mine.

 

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tz1FL3X6KldYXIoGOHXpv6A&output=html

[slappzilla]

I just now saw this post and saw the that the poster made the post towards me.

 

Yeah, every year the Brewers are going to spend 80 million because we're a small market team...and for how many years now have we consistently surpassed that by a significant margin?

twice

 

 

2012: $ 98,150,833

2011: $ 83,590,833

2010: $ 90,408,000

2009: $ 80,182,502

2008: $ 80,937,499

2007: $ 70,986,500

2006: $ 57,568,333

2005: $ 39,934,833

2004: $ 27,528,500

2003: $ 40,627,000

2002: $ 50,287,833

2001: $ 43,886,883

2000: $ 35,800,000

 

 

Now when we've finally got our new TV deal coming in and Mark A and Melvin have made a point of saying they going to try and compete next year, we're going to slash the payroll.

 

Thanks for the lesson in how Mark A made his money, but the Brewers ARE making money, and they've got over 20 million in additional revenue coming in next year.

Link?

 

I don't care about their market size as much as I care about their revenue, and those suggesting the Brewers are capable of spending 110-115 aren't suggesting he operate at a loss. Forbers certainly doesn't have them in danger of losing money, and every YEAR we hear how they went out and they "might," end up in the red only to see them raise it again the next year.

So when Melvin came out and said that this years $98M payroll was significantly over budget, he was just making stuff up to look good?

 

They're not a $110-$115M payroll team. Not now at least, and I don't see them turning that corner in the next couple of years either. I just do not understand where you are getting this idea from. Forbes said Mark is making that much of a profit and he could spend more? I highly doubt it.

 

I predicted 3-4 years ago almost to the dollar what I thought the Brewers would be able to spend. I thought 90-95-100 in the previous three years and now I believe they'll hit 110 or so.

They hit $90M in 2010 and almost $100M this year, but again, from everything Melvin has said, it seems as if the Brewers are scaling back next year, not tacking on.

 

Anyway, this 80 million dollar nonsense should be just cut and pasted year after year. We're making more money from ticket sales, merchandizing, TV, radio, the last two with new contracts kicking in next year. But they'll cut 20 million dollars.

I think most of us have said we think the Brewers payroll will be between $80-$90M. I know that's what I said and I've seen a few others say the same. We're basing those numbers off of what Melvin has said, previous budgets, and predicting future attendance (revenue). How do you know we're making more money from ticket sales, merchandizing, TV, radio, etc? How do you know the Brewers have made/will make enough to afford a $110-$115M payroll? Clearly you know something that most of the other people who have posted in this thread don't know.

 

And if they were so outrageously over budget, Mark A an Melvin wouldn't have been talking about buying players leading up to the ASB before they hit the skids that put the final nail in the coffin.

When did they mention they were buyers? I don't remember hearing that at all. If they really had all that extra $$$ to buy like you claim, wouldn't they have bought early when guys like A-Gonz, Gamel, Narvdawg went down with season ending injuries vs just bringing up journeyman minor leaguers and young guys from the farm? Back then the Brewers were hardly out of it.

 

But I'll bet the Brewers end up with a payroll closer to 115 than to 80 million next year.

how much?

 

Oh, and one more thing, can we PLEASE stop with the nonsense about Mark A running businesses? How many times does the guy have to talk about how he doesn't view this the same as his other business ventures before we again compare two things that aren't even remotely comparable?

It's still a business and Mark is a proven successful businessman. He's not going to let one of his businesses lose $20M just to tack on payroll. Stop insinuating that.

[torts]

I had to capture part of his rant and put it in my signature so we never forget his prediction

[gobrew23]

But I'll bet the Brewers end up with a payroll closer to 115 than to 80 million next year.

how much?

 

I want in on this action as well.

[slappzilla]

I think he was trolling. I feel dumb for the long winded reply, or more/less for even responding.

 

Sorry for feeding the bears.

[thebruce44]

No, he used to post at another Brewer site I'm a regular at. Give him time to log back in and he will defend that position as he has been saying it for a while.

[Roderick]

I had to capture part of his rant and put it in my signature so we never forget his prediction

 

Well if the Brewers spend $21M for two FA pitchers (Marcum? + FA) and revamp the pen with FAs, then the Brewers will end up spending what they did this year, $98M+. If that is the number then he will have won his side of the bet.

 

I can see Mark A. going that route (two FA starting pitchers) as he can sell the new pitcher (s)and sell that they are still competing for a playoff spot.

 

Obviously, if they go with some combination of Estrada/Narveson/Rogers/Thornburg/Peralta to fill around Gallardo and Fiers - they will be substantially cheaper.

[TURBO]

Ugh, more Narveson talk...

 

[reillymcshane]

I bet the team stays low on salary for 2013 - probably between $80-90 million. We are going to have a lot of questions - especially pitching. But management will still look to contend. It will take the positive development of some young players, plus a free agent or two. Not to mention good health. But having everything 'go right' for the club isn't something they should count on. What they'll do is make some modest additions in the offseason, and if things to 'go right', they'll have the flexibility to add payroll during the season, and fill in the holes as needed.

 

I see on two areas to make major additions this off season:

 

1. We would need a starting pitcher. In free agency, you could go after a mid-rotation guy like Anibal Sanchez. Or target a guy in need of a change of scenery - like Pittsburgh did with AJ Burnett. You could also re-sign Marcum, if he's healthy, to fill the slot.

 

This guy would fill out the rotation, which would also include Gallardo, Fiers, (probably) Estrada and one of Thornbug/Peralta/Rogers.

 

2. The bullpen could be drastically changed, depending on the fates of Parra, Loe and Veras. Are these guys worth $8 million? I'm tempted to dump them all and look at add a couple of more reliable guys (who those guys are, I don't really know - just speculation). No matter what happens with the above relievers, I'd put the losers of the rotation battle into the bullpen.

 

Axford, (two of) Peralta/Rogers/Thornbug, Loe, Parra, Veras (if you keep those guys - and if not, their replacements), plus McClendon and Henderson will be in the mix.

 

And we can't forget about Chris Narveson - just in case he's ready to return.

 

The hitters are mostly the same - you just have decide if you are keeping Morgan (I say no), putting Hart at 1B (yes) and Segura at SS.

 

No matter what, you aren't taking on a ton of salary. You can add other players, but they would be lower salaried types. It keeps the salary low, and if the team stays healthy and the younger guys produce - even modestly - you stay in the playoff race. You can then add players to the team during the season based upon need. If the team does poorly (a distinct possibility, as a few injuries can really hurt a thin team), you aren't saddled with loads of bad contracts.

[fondybrewfan]

My beat for next year is $85 Million; attendance will almost certainly be worse as they won't have the offseason sales that they have in the past. $85 Million is still a nice number and gives Melvin some flexibility; but it still would be wise to take a risk and put at least 2 or 3 pre arby guys in the rotation so the money can be spent on other areas like the bullpen. Fiers as a pre arby guy should be a lock and they should let one or two of Peralta, Rogers, and Thornburg fill the other spots not vacated by Gallardo, Fiers, and maybe a mid tier FA like Marcum. That should leave plenty of cap space for other areas of need