Alternate Scenario...

[HiAndTight]

Now this rather pointless, so if you don't care to join in, by all means, ignore the following post.

 

But lets just say for arguments sake that Mark Texiera wants to go home and play for the O's or Washington, both offering him big money? OR The Red Sox and that he DOESN'T sign at the last minute with the Yankees a team he wasn't even that closely tied to.

 

1-We get Mike Trout.

2-Lets say that we trade Prince Fielder with 2 years left. Grab a couple prospects. Who isn't important because I don't want to go too far off the rails here. The Brewers decide to completely rebuild.

3-We no longer "go for it," last year and win 96 games, we don't trade for Greinke, or Marcum and we probably end up winning about 65 games the last two years. That places the Brewers at around #4 in 2011 and 6th in 2012. That'd be Dylan Bundy and then the likes of a Kyle Zimmer. But that's too much speculation, so lets ignore those two for a second.

 

4-We DON'T trade Brett Lawrie, Alcides Escobar, Jake Odorizzi, Lorenzo Cain and Jeremy Jeffress.

 

Again, this isn't including what we'd have gotten for TWO years of Prince, or guys like Dylan Bundy, or Kyle Zimmer, Bubba Starling, Zunino..whoever.

 

Our IF goes

Lawrie/Escobar/Weeks/Gamel/Lucroy

OF Braun/TROUT/Hart-Gomez/Cain(the latter possibly making Hart expendable and adding to the young talent while clearing cap space).

(As we likely don't trade for Morgan or sign Aoki as they aren't moves you make when you're not ready to win).

 

 

The Brewers DON'T make the playoffs and win 96 games and get to within 2 games of the WS. And I have to admit, when they made the Marcum trade, I was disgusted, when they got Greinke, I thought it was great. And the excitement of coming that close to winning and getting to the WS was a experience I'll never lose.

 

But stay with me.

 

The Brewers save....36 on ARam and upgrade(spending probably only a little more on Lawrie for 6 years).

They don't have to wake in a cold sweat thinking about Yuni B playing SS. They don't spend 4.5 million on Gonzalez.

They save 27 on Greinke, 15 on Marcum, 8.5 on K-Rod, 30 million on Wolf, 5 million on Moragan. We ALSO don't suffer through watching RR strip away a WS by putting Kotsay in CF totally blowing the game on routine plays in the 1st inning.

 

Imagine a lineup of

 

Trout-CF

Escobar-SS

Braun-LF

Lawrie-3B

Hart-RF

Weeks-2B

Gamel-1B

Lucroy-C

 

Especially in the next 2-3 years. A lineup that costs 450K for 5 of the players, 10 million for two of the players and 6.5 for the other two for a total of roughly 28 million dollars.

 

ABSURD talent up and down the lineup. Three potential MVP candidates, two to three GG candidates, a .300 hitting catcher and the weak spots are Weeks and Gamel(and my opinion of Gamel is that he can and will still end up being a 4 WAR player while the other was nearly a 7 WAR player in recent history).

 

Pitching wise, this is infinitely more difficult to project. But you've got Gallardo, Estrada, and a million different things go a million different ways. Hell, we very possibly end up with Bauer and Bundy as prospects to go with for the most part the guys we have now.

 

But we could safely say Gallardo/Fiers/someone at least the caliber of a Daniel Hudson.

 

Your rotation likely costs less than 12-15 million unless you made a big splash....

 

-----------------------------

Like I said, this is nothing more than a kinda silly revisionist history, but it's all entirely realistic. I was a HUGE advocate of them just blowing everything up when Prince had two years left and we didn't have the pitching to compete and I DID NOT want to get rid of Lawrie as I truly believe Lawrie's a guy who will be Ryan Braun's equal in terms of WAR in the future.

 

But that's a lineup 1-8 that nobody can question UNLESS you're not Gamel fan(I am).

 

And like I said, you could speculate away on the potential draft picks. In addition to our current farm system, sans Jungman, Bradley, the guys selected this year in the 1st round, we'd have two more top 5 picks, potentially even guys like Bundy and Bauer, possibly a elite arm for the two years of Prince we gave away....

 

Kind of fun(or horribly, horribly painful)n to think about. But the Brewers would now have the best young offense in baseball, they'd likely be drawing a LOT of fans, would have a top5 farm system, though they obviously wouldn't have drawn well as of late.

 

Everyone talks about the Brewers building like the Rays, well, lets go back in history to 2009 and pretend we actually did that.

 

Or if Biz wants to complain about how pointless this is, then by all means, do that. Just trying to play a little "what if," game here. Gallardo, Bauer, Bundy, Nelson, Peralta, Thornburg, Fiers, Estrada, and given the prospects we'd have gotten for Prince, or the draft pick we'd have gotten this year(which we'd have gotten in '10 which could well have been a guy like Archie Bradley....

 

 

 

 

Now I'm not complaining about the route we took with the Grienke/Gallardo trades, and we have a nice system right now, should end up with a good pick next year, AND we very well should end up with a farm system rated in the top 5-10 this year with what still IS a pretty good group of positional players at the big league level.

 

 

I'm just again trying to have some fun and discuss who we could have gotten....

[TooLiveBrew]

Like I said, this is nothing more than a kinda silly revisionist history, but it's all entirely realistic.

 

What I appreciate about the time & effort you put into this post is that it's a tangible example for the questions that get asked like, 'What would the team had even looked like if Melvin didn't make the moves he did?' I honestly believe that the team had so much success in 2011 that some fans -- and frankly, I don't hold this against anyone -- genuinely just don't believe that a different approach could've led to similar results at any point in the near future. But it's fun to see at least one hypothetical (full of disclaimers about it only being hypothetical, an important touch imo) that shows things could very easily have worked out quite well for the Brewers in terms of organizational talent.

 

EDIT: And even if the only 'what if' move you examine is the rumored (but widely rumored) offer of Matt Cain for Fielder back in 2010 (iirc), it's a fun exercise to play out imo. I was actually thinking about the Cain-Fielder 'what if' late last night & trying to piece together where I would've gone from there, in DM's shoes.

[dlk9s]

Since the entire scenario is based on this:

 

But lets just say for arguments sake that Mark Texiera wants to go home and play for the O's or Washington, both offering him big money? OR The Red Sox and that he DOESN'T sign at the last minute with the Yankees a team he wasn't even that closely tied to.

 

I'd have to argue against this:

 

it's all entirely realistic.

[TooLiveBrew]

Since the entire scenario is based on this:

 

But lets just say for arguments sake that Mark Texiera wants to go home and play for the O's or Washington, both offering him big money? OR The Red Sox and that he DOESN'T sign at the last minute with the Yankees a team he wasn't even that closely tied to.

I'd have to argue against this:

 

it's all entirely realistic.

Well... fine. So think up another one that would be more realistic. I guess my point is that even if you don't read H&T's full post, or don't agree with everything in there being plausible, it's a fun 'what if' type of thing to examine and there's no reason one simply has to adhere to what he took the time to lay out in the OP.

[HiAndTight]

Like I said, this is nothing more than a kinda silly revisionist history, but it's all entirely realistic.

 

What I appreciate about the time & effort you put into this post is that it's a tangible example for the questions that get asked like, 'What would the team had even looked like if Melvin didn't make the moves he did?' I honestly believe that the team had so much success in 2011 that some fans -- and frankly, I don't hold this against anyone -- genuinely just don't believe that a different approach could've led to similar results at any point in the near future. But it's fun to see at least one hypothetical (full of disclaimers about it only being hypothetical, an important touch imo) that shows things could very easily have worked out quite well for the Brewers in terms of organizational talent.

 

EDIT: And even if the only 'what if' move you examine is the rumored (but widely rumored) offer of Matt Cain for Fielder back in 2010 (iirc), it's a fun exercise to play out imo. I was actually thinking about the Cain-Fielder 'what if' late last night & trying to piece together where I would've gone from there, in DM's shoes.

 

 

 

Well there you go. You make the trade Prince for Cain in this scenario, maybe you even make the Bumgarner for Hart trade and you slide in Aoki into RF, Gamel into 1st base, and then start out with a Cain, Gallardo, Bumgarner, Fiers front four!

 

I don't think either is really that realistic, but...none of this belongs in the realm or reality, but rather "what if."

 

And I agree with you, most fans probably agree with what you said. However I was BEGGING the team to do a rebuild because I thought at the time with Escobar, Odorizzi(who could be our #5 starter) and in particular Lawrie was a great group of pitchers. I'll confess to thinking Jefress would develop better. But I was looking forward to those guys with Mat Gamel, Taylor Green who I've long thought is a Mark Loretta type player with more power and a lower batting average type guy.

 

 

 

But lets not forget, a HUGE part of this is that we get Mike Trout. I mean, I'm dirving Gomez around this year in his bandwagon in my belief that he should enter next year with a starting positin and see one more time what he can do if he stays healthy and at age 27(next year) can put everything together. I believe, as I've asid several times, I thought he was well on his way to a .275/.320/.450-ish line before his injury which with his normal D would likely have put his WAR somewhere around 4-ish. But he did get hurt. He's also shown enough that he's not the type of raw talent you want to give away and watch him become Carlos Gonzalez elsewhere(though that's pushing it).

 

But regardless, Trout is a better player than Ryan Braun right now at age 20(right now, he still has a lot of work to do to be considered better in the long run, but just playing CF helps a lot).

 

We where rumored to have liked Trout, but we'd have had to pull the trigger on him. Though with the 28th pick, we'd have been able to.

[HiAndTight]

Since the entire scenario is based on this:

 

But lets just say for arguments sake that Mark Texiera wants to go home and play for the O's or Washington, both offering him big money? OR The Red Sox and that he DOESN'T sign at the last minute with the Yankees a team he wasn't even that closely tied to.

 

I'd have to argue against this:

 

it's all entirely realistic.

 

 

 

Clearly you wouldn't HAVE to argue against all this because...well...you DIDN'T argue against all this and it was a bit of a surprise that Tex ended up and swooping Tex out from the Red Sox grasp all the while he was rumored to have serious interest in Washington and Baltimore.

 

But lets take the glasses off the tip of the nose. This isn't a serious post in which I'm basing a SINGLE-PERSON for how things turned out(well, maybe Melvin for Lawrie, but I've done that for about 6 months before he was traded when I in jest said I'd no longer be a fan of the Brewers if they made such a trade).

 

But no, taken individually, every single aspect of what I said is realistic. And if each component is realistic, it's realistic to come to the same overall group of players.

 

 

 

Though I'm not really interested in "Having," to argue about anything in this thread. I'm more interested in responses like TLB gave me and those who just had fun speculating about it.

[HiAndTight]

Since the entire scenario is based on this:

 

But lets just say for arguments sake that Mark Texiera wants to go home and play for the O's or Washington, both offering him big money? OR The Red Sox and that he DOESN'T sign at the last minute with the Yankees a team he wasn't even that closely tied to.

I'd have to argue against this:

 

it's all entirely realistic.

Well... fine. So think up another one that would be more realistic. I guess my point is that even if you don't read H&T's full post, or don't agree with everything in there being plausible, it's a fun 'what if' type of thing to examine and there's no reason one simply has to adhere to what he took the time to lay out in the OP.

 

 

Thank you.

 

Hell, Doug Melvin has obviously done this hismelf when he talked about how they could have Alcides Escobar and Brett Lawrie, a 22 and 24 year old 3rd basemen who has superstar offensive potential while playing very good defense and a SS who has superstar defensive potential with very good offense already.

 

You think he hasn't taken that a step further? He's made comments repeatedly about how it was unfair that the Angels got the 28th pick and we didn't(And I personally take that because of Trout he's particularly annoyed by it).

 

Don't think it's unreasonable with sevearl down years staring us in the face to look at what could have been a team that even IF we traded Prince for Cain would probably cost us 85 million dollars at most giving him another 25-30 to play with in the next couple years to round out the team with luxury pieces like a Grant Balfour or whoever the case may be.

 

So change it up.

 

Lets say that those of us who wanted us to so desperately try and rebuild when we went out and grabbed Marcum and Greinke got our way. Who'd we have right now.

 

What picks would we have had in the ensuing years? Do we end up as a 65 win team that puts Bauer and Bundy within our reach? It's just a speculative fun thread, that's all.

[Point Beer Is Best]

Alternate scenario: Melvin decides to pull the trigger on acquiring Furcal. Cardinals don't make the postseason in 2011.

[3and2Fastball]

HiAndTight, I think you continue to overrate Brett Lawrie. Time will tell on that one but right now he has an OPS+ of 98 which is absurdly bad. Next year he'll be the same age as Braun was in his rookie year, we'll see how he does in comparison to a truly great MVP. Lawrie is hurt again now, too, and his makeup and style of play sure looks like he the potential for an injury prone career.

 

I agree it would have been wonderful if the Brewers had taken Trout in the 2009 draft.

 

I like the potential of Jean Segura more than Escobar. And I love the reality of making the NLCS in 2011.

 

Ultimately, I think "Point Beer is Best" completely nails it in that aquiring Furcal was a big difference maker in determining who was better between the Cardinals & Brewers last year. I agree that if the Brewers had traded for Furcal last year, our chances of making the 2011 World Series would have been elevated significantly.

 

I'd rather have 1.5 years of Greinke plus 6 years of Jean Segura plus the Angels prospect pitchers we received than Cain, Escobar, and the rest in that trade....

[3and2Fastball]

Hell, Doug Melvin has obviously done this himself when he talked about how they could have Alcides Escobar and Brett Lawrie, a 22 and 24 year old 3rd basemen who has superstar offensive potential while playing very good defense and a SS who has superstar defensive potential with very good offense already.

.

 

I find Melvin's comments in that regard fascinating in that they are pure revisionist history. I think in order for that to happen Melvin would've had to fire himself because I can find no indication in any way whatsoever that the Brewers ever considered playing Lawrie at 3B! At the time of the trade for Marcum, Melvin spun it that Lawrie was "blocked at 2B by Weeks". Lawrie never played one inning at 3B in the Brewers organization, including spring training games

[trwi7]

HiAndTight, I think you continue to overrate Brett Lawrie. Time will tell on that one but right now he has an OPS+ of 98 which is absurdly bad.

 

100 is average but somehow 98 is absurdly bad?

[3and2Fastball]

HiAndTight, I think you continue to overrate Brett Lawrie. Time will tell on that one but right now he has an OPS+ of 98 which is absurdly bad.

 

100 is average but somehow 98 is absurdly bad?

 

OK, good point. However, HiAndTight refers to Lawrie as a "potential MVP candidate someday". I just don't see it, and a 98 OPS+ as a 3B in his year 22 season makes future projections as an MVP seem a little, well, farfetched. Of course Mike Schmidt had a 92 OPS+ and worse stats than Lawrie when Schmidt was 23 years old, so what do I know?!

[RockCoCougars]

Call me crazy, but I don't think that this team would be any better this season with Lawrie and Escobar. The future would look better, but I'll take last year's playoff run in exchange.

[SRB]

I am honestly so annoyed by the compensation-pick nonsense that happened after 2008 that I don't even want to think about it. Trout would have been a Brewer. Granted, the fact that some people are calling him the second-coming after a .400 BABIP half-season is pretty silly, but still...

[jjfanec]

Call me crazy, but I don't think that this team would be any better this season with Lawrie and Escobar. The future would look better, but I'll take last year's playoff run in exchange.

 

It depends on what we spend the money we would have had on. Ramirez has been superior offensively to Lawrie but Lawrie has been better defensively. Escobar would have definitely been a step up, although a healthy Alex Gonzalez was really good too.

 

I do think this board overrates Lawrie. People act like he is a superstar right now and a future MVP. I know he is young but his power numbers suggest Corey Hart more than Ryan Braun. Now he could be what people think, but right now that isnt exactly what his numbers suggest. He isnt getting unlucky this year. He just isnt hitting for the power he hit last year which was the only year he really was a power hitter

[trwi7]

I am honestly so annoyed by the compensation-pick nonsense that happened after 2008 that I don't even want to think about it. Trout would have been a Brewer. Granted, the fact that some people are calling him the second-coming after a .400 BABIP half-season is pretty silly, but still...

 

I'm more annoyed by the compensation pick changes in the CBA that screw over small market teams.

[Raw Biz]

Or if Biz wants to complain about how pointless this is, then by all means, do that.

 

I'm not sure why you have to drag me into your crap all the time. This post had nothing to do with me, yet you bring my name up. And this isn't the first time either. I called you out last time you made some crap up and basically attributed another posters quotes to me and you never apologized for that either. Its like you're just trying to get a rise out of me at this point.

 

I may not agree with everything you say and some of your posts can be rather long and repetitive but I don't go out of my way to attack you, like you seem to be doing with me. I don't care if you don't agree with me but quit going out of your way to bring me into your posts. Meanwhile, maybe read up on the etiquette thread, particularly these little bits:

 

Condescending talk toward other posters (including but not limited to name-calling, baiting and flaming) is not allowed. Other Brewers-related message boards are more tolerant of "talking smack" to other users, and we suggest you go there if that's what you're about.

 

If you want to respond to multiple messages in a thread, try to do it with a single post, rather than a bunch of consecutive posts. The latter gives the impression you haven't read the earlier posts.

[Dollarbill13]

That would be a cool lineup but I think trading Fielder with two years left was unlikely and we probably would have been better than a 65 win team in 2011, especially with how Lawrie played last year.

[TooLiveBrew]

I do think this board overrates Lawrie. People act like he is a superstar right now and a future MVP.

I think Lawrie will be a very good hitter, but I don't recall seeing anyone call him a superstar right now or say that he's going to win the MVP.

 

EDIT: Here is another player who made it to MLB at a very young age, mashed in his first year, struggled in his second year, and has bounced back just fine. In fact, this guy was another who many on BF.net dismissed as an overhyped young player who surely would never live up to the hype (iirc someone even started a thread on that topic). Maybe he does, maybe he doesn't, but you sure aren't seeing many people posting about how he was just overhyped anymore... though I do recall some I-told-you-so caliber posts during his second season.

[jjfanec]

I do think this board overrates Lawrie. People act like he is a superstar right now and a future MVP.

I think Lawrie will be a very good hitter, but I don't recall seeing anyone call him a superstar right now or say that he's going to win the MVP.

 

EDIT: Here is another player who made it to MLB at a very young age, mashed in his first year, struggled in his second year, and has bounced back just fine. In fact, this guy was another who many on BF.net dismissed as an overhyped young player who surely would never live up to the hype (iirc someone even started a thread on that topic). Maybe he does, maybe he doesn't, but you sure aren't seeing many people posting about how he was just overhyped anymore... though I do recall some I-told-you-so caliber posts during his second season.

 

I know there were numerous people saying he was a Braun like hitter. Putting him in that category implies All-Star and MVP in the future. Heyward is a great example of who I think Lawrie is. A .750-.850 OPS hitter, but the power looks more to be in the 15-20 HR range than the 35-40. There have been many on this board who have put Lawrie in Braun's camp as a hitter and I just dont see it. I could be wrong, because I have been about plenty of guys. I am not trying to post some I-told-you-so thing about Lawrie. I think he is better than his numbers this year, but I have read numerous posts saying we gave up a future All-Star. I guess I get sick of reading posts about how great we would be going forward with two studs like Lawrie and Braun (again I have seen this thought posted here more than a couple times) when Lawrie looks more like Corey Hart than Ryan Braun

[TooLiveBrew]

I know there were numerous people saying he was a Braun like hitter.

 

I think this was more the case of one person saying it numerous times...

 

 

Heyward is a great example of who I think Lawrie is. A .750-.850 OPS hitter, but the power looks more to be in the 15-20 HR range than the 35-40.

 

I think you're selling short just how young both Heyward & Lawrie are. What they've done so far at their respective ages is really impressive. Imo you're looking at two perennial 30+ HR hitters.

[jjfanec]

I know there were numerous people saying he was a Braun like hitter.

 

I think this was more the case of one person saying it numerous times...

 

 

Heyward is a great example of who I think Lawrie is. A .750-.850 OPS hitter, but the power looks more to be in the 15-20 HR range than the 35-40.

 

I think you're selling short just how young both Heyward & Lawrie are. What they've done so far at their respective ages is really impressive. Imo you're looking at two perennial 30+ HR hitters.

 

It was more than one person but it doesnt really matter

 

I could be selling them short due to their age, but I think next year will be a telling year for Lawrie. He never really hit for HR power in the minors outside of 2011 and this year his power has declined again. He will be the same age Braun was when Ryan first came into the league so it will be the year where Lawrie's age will be somewhat normal for the league. I just look at minor league numbers and keep seeing Lawrie matching up more with Hart than Braun. He was a year younger than Corey but his numbers are about the same in AA. Lawrie's crazy minor league year came in the PCL where numbers are usually insane now he carried that over into the majors so maybe that is who he is. Hart is not a bad guy to whom to be compared and I am not trying to slight Lawrie.

[logan82]

I think he is better than his numbers this year, but I have read numerous posts saying we gave up a future All-Star. I guess I get sick of reading posts about how great we would be going forward with two studs like Lawrie and Braun (again I have seen this thought posted here more than a couple times) when Lawrie looks more like Corey Hart than Ryan Braun

Corey Hart was an All-Star. I don't think many people thought Lawrie was in the same class as Braun but even if he was "only" as good as Hart that would have given us 2 very good bats to build a lineup around for at least 6+ years.

[jjfanec]

I think he is better than his numbers this year, but I have read numerous posts saying we gave up a future All-Star. I guess I get sick of reading posts about how great we would be going forward with two studs like Lawrie and Braun (again I have seen this thought posted here more than a couple times) when Lawrie looks more like Corey Hart than Ryan Braun

Corey Hart was an All-Star. I don't think many people thought Lawrie was in the same class as Braun but even if he was "only" as good as Hart that would have given us 2 very good bats to build a lineup around for at least 6+ years.

 

I have said that Hart is not a bad guy to whom to be compared. He is a really good baseball player and having a guy like Hart for 6 years would be really nice. The initial post in this thread said Lawrie was a potential MVP candidate and others have said the same thing, so I dont get why some here keep acting like people have not been saying Lawrie will be on Braun's level.

 

The Marcum trade was a tough one to love and before this season I said it was the one of the three big pitcher trades I was worried would be the hardest one to stomach going forward. I hope people dont think I think Lawrie will be a bust. I just dont think he is an MVP type player

 

I have taken this post away from its original topic so I will quit posting about Lawrie comparisons.

 

Back to the post. The thought that we could have drafted Trout if the Angles didnt pick him makes me sad