2013: Which way would you go?

[TooLiveBrew]

I'd just keep trade Hart (or trade him at the 2013 deadline, assuming the Brewers aren't in contention).

Perhaps you are remembering this & still have this stance, but don't forget that moving Hart this offseason would mean his new team would also be able to make him a qualifying offer after 2013 & receive a comp. pick for losing him via FA... which would greatly enhance Hart's value imo. If he's dealt at the deadline, a partial season of Hart is all the acquiring team would get.

 

However, I think the comp. pick will be part of why Melvin decides to keep Corey through 2013.

[TheCrew07]

3. A once-in-a-generation type talent (Ryan Braun) does not happen often. It's essential to maximize the window of opportunity while he's still in his prime.

 

This to me is the same argument as Ryan Braun is an MVP, he cannot play RF unless he decides it's in his best interest to do so, the competitive windows closes with Fielder, or with Greinke, and so on... I just don't see building the roster in those absolute terms, I think it's a farce, and chasing that idea is what leads teams down the path of "tear it all apart".

 

When exactly has a team been able to "maximize the talent" around a HOF through FA and win anything in any sport with a salary cap? Certainly the large market baseball teams who can spend 2 to 3 times as much as the middle teams can do that (and have), but outside of a limited number teams in a single professional sport, where has that idea played out in any sport at any time? The Marlins in the 90s who didn't sustain anything and tore it down that same off season?

 

Isn't that essentially want the Packers tried to do under Sherman? How did that work out in the end? What FA contract turned out well for them? How did they ultimately make it back to the Superbowl?

 

We're all familiar with the Cubs, how long did it take them to go from "veteran" to "blow it all up"? That's the real danger here, without a constant youth movement and operating in the manner Melvin has done at some point you will essentially run out of talent, which means you run out of options, and are left with no option but to blow it all up and start over. That's something I want no part of, and never have.

 

I understand the premise of the closing window, I understand the way baseball teams have tradionally operated, but I don't think many teams in any league have "solved" sports in the era of free agency. The traditional method of building up a team and retaining those guys through the end of their careers just doesn't work, there isn't enough money to go around, especially as the players start to age and decline. At some point it always comes crashing down because of injuries and/or declining performance, the only way to sustain success and be a "power" in a sport is to continually turn over the roster with young productive players. Baseball isn't an equal playing field, the Yankess can afford to carry 2 dead weight contracts at any time that would literally sink the Brewers financially. The system isn't fair and if the Brewers follow traditional methods then 2011 will have been their best chance for a championship.

 

We need to be honest, the Brewers aren't ever going to be able to surround any 1 player with enough talent bought through FA to be competitive. The most the Brewers can afford to spend on 1 player puts you squarely in the middle of the FA pitching market... those players aren't impact players, they aren't difference makers, they are just role players.

 

If you want to maximize the return on Braun then you need to be able surround him with enough impact starting pitching to make a difference. A simple history lesson here is the Brewers from 2007-2012... what years did they make the playoffs? How did their pitching rank compared to the offense? Which more directly correlates to winning baseball, pitching or hitting? You're going to find the greater correlation between pitching and post season success. If you want look at the Phillies who were also a dominant NL team over that same period, when did they have the most success?

 

Just like the Packers won't be able to keep every weapon around Rodgers, the Brewers won't be able to resign all of their core players either. Like it or not we need to be a draft and develop franchise, which means we should be breaking in a couple of young players every single year. If you want to maximize the competitive advantage with Braun then it comes back to building the strongest possible organization so that when we actually have surplus talent available we can move that talent to plug (long-term hopefully) needs elsewhere. That means having to make tough decisions about expiring contracts and when to walk away from players that are still performing at a fairly high level.

 

With Ramirez most of the objections were not about year 1, they are or should be about year 3. It's the same with any player signed in their mid 30s, they carry significant risk of a decline in production and/or catastrophic injury (many months on the DL). People still cling to the notion that Sheets' injury problems were just bad luck but I've never viewed it that way. Serious pitching injuries are simply inevitable given the way the human body is constructed, the human body breaks down over time and makes injuries more likely and recovery times longer. It's not bad luck, it's human nature, and while we certainly don't know exactly when or if a player will decline, we do know the odds, so from my perspective we're better off keeping players through their peak years and then moving on from them all.

 

Toronto sold Marcum at the perfect time, that's the kind of move I'd like to see the Brewers make in the future. Lawrie may never be Braun, but he has the talent to be, and that's the kind of talent we should be looking to buy, not sell. When you have enough of that talent in the system you'll get 1 or 2 guys like Braun, a number of solid yet unspectacular players like Weeks and Hart, and certainly a number of players who will underperform their talent like Parra. We can mitigate the risk by having a deep system, the more prospects you have, the less performance risk you carry as an organization.

 

Most of the time the argument against young players comes down to weighing performance risk and that's only about 1/4 of the argument from where I'm sitting. Somehow people seem to think that performance=risk, and it's just not that simple. Peformance is a component of risk but it's not a 1 to 1 correlation. The players with the greatest value in any sport are young players who are performing at a high level. They don't make outrageous sums of money, they are sill productive, they are low injury risk, and they are easily controlled for years. Therefore young productive players actually carry the lowest risk (have the greatest value) in all sports, not just baseball.

 

So getting back to the original premise, if you want to surround Braun with the best talent possible, we have to develop as much impact talent as possible and then spend money to plug holes with role players in FA. If we're looking to buy difference makes in FA then we've set ourselves up with a recipe for failure, because the Brewers simply cannot afford the contract length nor the dollars necessary to sign enough of those players to build around. It's very simple math, 2 $20 mil contracts is 40% of the payroll... and we still need to pay 23 other guys. To make it work the Brewers need talent at all different levels of the pay scale and we need to walk away from players once they are past their peak. It's much easier for the Brewers to have a "core" and sign players in FA to round out the team than build that core through FA, which I personally don't believe is possible.

 

I like Weeks for many reasons, but the Brewers should move on from him once his contract is done, the same for Hart, and he was one my personal "big 3" coming through the system. Trying to maximize each successive window... the Fielder window, the Hart window, the Weeks window, the Braun window, that just ensures that a rebuild is going to be necessary.

 

Replacing older more expensive players who actually carry greater risk overall with younger productive players is just good business. The production drop off for any 1 season should be acceptable with the end goal in mind, even it goes on for a couple years. You're still better off paying a young player to productive through their peak than you are spending that same money on the backend of a player's career. The trick is to find young players who will be productive, which of course is the primary argument for stockpiling talent behind the MLB team, the more prospects we have, the better off we'll be.

[thebruce44]

Here's what I don't get. A lot of you want to deal Hart and/or Ramirez, to free up money with which to sign free agents that would presumably fill other holes. In this scenario, you're hoping that the prospects taking the place of Hart and/or Ramirez will pan out and you're also hoping that the newly acquired free agents will perform to their value.

 

Why not then just fill those other holes mentioned above with prospects and hope that they pan out, while keeping the known commodities of Hart and Ramirez?

 

I'm hoping the prospects that take the place of Hart and/or Ramirez pan out when our young pitching can pitch strong through a playoff run (i.e. not 2013). If we keep the known commodities of Hart and Ramirez then in 2014 and/or 2015 we have nothing.

[TooLiveBrew]

Just saw this on Twitter thanks to Adam McCalvy:

 

Congrats to Corey Hart, Brewers winner of MLBPAA Heart & Hustle Award for embodying values, spirit & traditions of baseball.

Link to story on MLBPAA's website. Apologies if this had already been posted.

[Nottso]

Thanks for all the replies. They're all quite good, as they're very thought provoking. Much of this is hard for me as I'm pretty much "The Anti-Stat." I invest in players emotionally, and I personally would rather have good players that are of good character more so than I would like to have great players that are of questionable character. I drive the stat guys in my circle of friends just nuts but that's the way I feel about it all.

 

I really, really want Corey Hart to finish his career as a Brewer. Ramirez I can see letting go, because he does get awfully expensive, but I don't know where they'll find that kind of production for less money.

[faede]

 

Really big quote.

 

Let me respond to some of this.

 

I agree that you HAVE to supplement with youth. It's the only way to function. But, you can't possibly get lucky enough to always fill holes with youth. It's not about "retaining a player" until the end of his career. It is making smart moves to get slightly above replacement level players and using all of your resources to avoid gaping holes that are below replacement level players.

 

What I'm advocating is not a tear down, nor an overspend. I'm saying this. Ryan Braun is a 7 WAR player. That's ridiculous. The fact that he is a 7WAR type player makes forming a roster much easier. When he becomes a 5 WAR or less player as he ages, it gets that much more difficult to obtain the consistent quality of players around him to put together a winning team.

 

You don't tear things down. You simply make smart moves and you don't make those moves in a vacuum. Sure, Aramis Ramirez is going to make a lot of money the next two years. But he's also going to (probably) put up a 4 or 5 WAR at a position (3B) where we have nothing but a sucking black hole behind him. Hey, if the Greinke deal brought back Mike Olt, it's probably a much more feasible option. If you can find a way to improve the rest of the roster to replace that 4 or 5 WAR, hey, go for it.

 

But, you also probably have to replace one or two WAR in negative equity at the 3B position.

 

That was, and is always, my point.

 

I think it's probably easier to replace some of the negative equity in relief pitching we had this year than to attempt to use Ramirez to upgrade other slots to meet or exceed his positive equity. Hart, maybe a little easier, but until you have a good plan on how to replace his 3+WAR, I don't think it's wise to go to crazy trying to dump him for other assets.

 

I think we got really lucky getting a major league ready young prospect at our most difficult "sucking black hole" of a position of negative equity.. SS. Go Jean Segura!! Our starting pitching prospects have some definite upside and relief pitching is "supposedly" the easiest of holes to fix.

 

I just see no reason to give up on 2013. There's some decent potential there and I can't see "hurting" ourselves too dramatically future-wise if we choose not to trade Hart and/or Ramirez.

[adambr2]

It's fine to look at 2013 and think there's a shot, but what's the plan for making that happen?

 

For position players, I don't think they need to do a thing. They will need to figure out where Gamel fits in, if he does, and whether Hart is a 1B or a RF, but that's about it. They have a good lineup, and everyone there is returning, or can be brought back.

 

The rotation is loaded with question marks. It's quite possible that Gallardo will be the only starter that began this year in the rotation, that will be returning. Fiers will be there, but then what? Estrada is probably a good #5, but nothing more. Then there's Peralta, Thornburg, and Rogers, all of which have potential, but are not sure things to be viable starters next year. It's fine if they want to go with some combination of those guys, but don't expect it to be a good, or even average rotation. They probably need at least one starter in free agency, and it has to be a very good one, not an "innings eater".

 

I don't even know where they will start with the bullpen. More or less, it will need to be completely rebuilt, and it won't be as simple as going out and signing the best FA relievers that we can find.

 

They were not contenders this year with Greinke and Marcum in the rotation most of the year. It's not a foregone conclusion that they can't be contenders without them, but it's going to take a very good offseason and then a lot of things going right. They're not a very good team right now with the talent that they have, and there's not a ton of reinforcements on the way coming up from the minors.

[craigharmann]

Just saw this on Twitter thanks to Adam McCalvy:

 

Congrats to Corey Hart, Brewers winner of MLBPAA Heart & Hustle Award for embodying values, spirit & traditions of baseball.

Link to story on MLBPAA's website. Apologies if this had already been posted.

[faede]

It's fine to look at 2013 and think there's a shot, but what's the plan for making that happen?

You're set at nearly every position. In theory, position production should actually be better next year (Lucroy, Weeks, Segura). You've got one solid starter in Gallardo, an apparently decent option in Fiers and about, what, 4 guys who are pretty darn close to ready for a starting spot (Rogers, Thornburg, Burgos, Peralta) who you'll get a pretty good look at the rest of the season. At least two guys (Henderson, Sanchez) who could get a good look the rest of the season and could provide some decently solid options in the bullpen and several flame thrower types (Hellweg, Pena) that could convert to reliever pretty easily.

 

Add, what, probably about 20mil in FA money? Plus another 10 (Hart) that comes off in 2014 and 25mil (Weeks, Ramirez) that comes off in 2015.

 

Is it really that difficult to see a solid plan immerge or am I just experiencing some homerific delusions?

[trwi7]

and several flame thrower types (Hellweg, Pena) that could convert to reliever pretty easily.

 

These are the types of short-sighted moves the Brewers need to avoid.

[adambr2]

No, I don't think you're delusional at all, just think that it's going to take more than going out and signing someone like Ryan Dempster and a pair of relievers to make this team a contender again.

[faede]

and several flame thrower types (Hellweg, Pena) that could convert to reliever pretty easily.

 

These are the types of short-sighted moves the Brewers need to avoid.

 

The reliever to starter pathway is pretty decently proven. Lance Lynn, Chris Sale, CJ Wilson, Adam Wainright, Jeff Samardijza. If a guy can pitch, it'll work out. But way to latch on to one theoretical option among many to attempt to make some type of point without offering any alternative options.

[faede]

No, I don't think you're delusional at all, just think that it's going to take more than going out and signing someone like Ryan Dempster and a pair of relievers to make this team a contender again.

 

It's certainly lucky then that there's about a hundred other options rather than signing Dempster and a couple of free agent relievers then isn't it?

[adambr2]

No, I don't think you're delusional at all, just think that it's going to take more than going out and signing someone like Ryan Dempster and a pair of relievers to make this team a contender again.

 

It's certainly lucky then that there's about a hundred other options rather than signing Dempster and a couple of free agent relievers then isn't it?

 

"Signing Dempster and a couple of free agent relievers" was an example scenario. You could sub that with "Signing Edwin Jackson and a couple of free agent relievers". Instead of being sarcastic, you could elaborate on your general plan to be contenders next year. I understand you want to give the young guys a shot and converting Hellweg and Pena to relievers when they are probably not even MLB ready next year. That's all fine and good, but that's not going to get the job done as far as turning the team into a contender in 2013.

 

I'm also a little puzzled that you want to give the young pitchers a shot (which I agree with), but you also earlier suggested a "Greinke-like trade" this offseason if we are unable to land Greinke himself.

 

There is no Greinke-like trade that doesn't involve parting with the best pitching pieces in our farm system.

[faede]

No, I don't think you're delusional at all, just think that it's going to take more than going out and signing someone like Ryan Dempster and a pair of relievers to make this team a contender again.

 

It's certainly lucky then that there's about a hundred other options rather than signing Dempster and a couple of free agent relievers then isn't it?

 

"Signing Dempster and a couple of free agent relievers" was an example scenario. You could sub that with "Signing Edwin Jackson and a couple of free agent relievers". Instead of being sarcastic, you could elaborate on your general plan to be contenders next year. I understand you want to give the young guys a shot and converting Hellweg and Pena to relievers when they are probably not even MLB ready next year. That's all fine and good, but that's not going to get the job done as far as turning the team into a contender in 2013.

 

I'm also a little puzzled that you want to give the young pitchers a shot (which I agree with), but you also earlier suggested a "Greinke-like trade" this offseason if we are unable to land Greinke himself.

 

There is no Greinke-like trade that doesn't involve parting with the best pitching pieces in our farm system.

 

The difference between "signing Dempster" and "signing Jackson" is so different, I can't even fathom defending it. But that is neither here-nor-there.

 

I do advocate getting a good look at what we have in youth. But other than that, I'm not advocating anything other than the thought that calling "punt" on 2013 seems just silly to me.

 

I'm just giving one of about a thousand options that may present itself as a good direction for success in 2003. I don't presume myself "smarter" than Doug Melvin and if I went out and made some stab at an "uber plan", it'd be nothing but throwing darts at a wall as I have no idea who's available or a price for each free agent. Nor do I have a good idea of how well our young guys will perform in the next two months of the season to prove themselves for a spot next season. Nobody does at this point.

 

But just for fun, here:

 

Starter 1: Zack Greinke (23mil)

Starter 2: Yovanni Gallardo (8mil)

Starter 3: Mike Fiers (500k)

Starter 4: Tyler Thornburg (500k) or Burgos or Peralta

Starter 5: Mark Rogers (500k) or Burgos or Peralta

Starters: 32.5mil

 

RP 1: Henderson (500k)

RP 2: Sanchez (500k)

RP 3: Parra (2mil)

RP 4: Axford (2mil)

RP 5: Narveson (LR, 500k)

RP 6: Estrada (1.5mil)

RP 7: Rafael Soriano (8mil)

RP 8: Tanner Scheppers (in a trade from Texas Rangers Corey Hart or some other decent prospect) (500k)

Relief: 15.5mil

Pitching: 48mil

 

C: Lucroy (850k), Muldonado (500k)

1B: Gamel and Morris (500k, 500k)

2B: Weeks (11mil)

SS: Segura (500k)

3B: Ramirez (10mil)

Utility Infielder: Bianchi (500k), Green (500k)

RF: Aoki (1.5mil)

CF: Gomez (4mil)

LF: Braun (11mil)

Utility Outfielder: Khris Davis (500k), Logan Schafer (500k)

Hart traded for something.

Position players: 41mil

Total 89mil.

 

I'd say we'd be a contender with that and it includes just about everything you can think of.. trade for a prospect, trade of Hart, Free Agent RP, Free Agent SP.

 

And please don't disect this idea.. I'm not really truly serious here (mostly because I think it's just plain crazy to even try to predict what could/will happen), I just think we have both assets, position players and youth to make a decent dent next season.

 

Yay.

[MNBrew]

Thoughts:

 

- I agree w/ faede that a reasonable & forward-thinking plan indeed is readily evident, as well as that a teardown not only isn't necessary but probably not something they need to do or even ought to consider. It's easy to chop down a mature tree in 30 minutes but it takes 30 years to grow another one of comparable size.....

 

- Putting that in baseball terms, you can strip down a team quickly by selling off, but there's no guarantee that enough of the young guys will pan out. Due to this down-spiraling season ("Your 2012 Milwaukee Brewers: One step forward & two steps back!"), this board has been rife with suggested plans to sell of everything of value short of Braun, Lucroy/Maldonado, & now Segura. That is a plan I don't want anything to do with. Why? Memories of the early Yost years are still too fresh: Sexson, Sheets, & wait for the prospects to arrive. I don't see that drastic amount back-stepping as sensible, let alone needed.

 

- There are ample reasons to consider both keeping and dealing Hart & Ramirez. But as someone said, the key is ultimately identifying your cornerstones/keepers and managing the gradual turnover of the rest of the roster (see: Atlanta Braves, 1991-2005 or so). Doug Melvin has proven pretty adept at making the needed moves at the needed times. No GM is flawless, but Melvin's got a strong track record and a knack for making outside-the-box moves that don't often come out as lemons. So I could see him pulling off a move or two that no one would've seen coming.

 

Soooo, thinking in terms of the position players (where we have a combo of solid talent and some depth)....

 

C: Lucroy & Maldonado. Set.

1B: Hart working out well; Gamel returning in '13; Morris on the horizon; Aramis Ramirez or Taylor Green also options.

2B: Weeks. Set. Gennett a decent prospect; Taylor Green not a ridiculous option here at all

SS: Seemingly set for now w/ Segura; could use legit depth (would a healthy Alex Gonzalez possibly re-sign to be a backup?)

3B: Ramirez producing & playing well; Green also very viable

 

LF: Braun. Set.

CF: Gomez &/or Aoki. Schafer?

RF: Gomez &/or Aoki. Schafer? Gindl? Heck, Gamel's also a very real possibility, too, if Hart's still at 1B.

 

There are plenty of ways to go. The nice thing is that there's decent depth most of the way around. The thing will be to see which combination of players the Brewers go with.

 

So how would I go if I were Melvin? ....

 

- IF they intend to keep Hart & Ramirez through 2013 & possibly beyond . . . Trading Weeks isn't seen as likely, and doing so likely would amount to selling low. But even though Melvin really likes Rickie, he's also a very possible DM "outside the box" trade since a) he'd still be worth quite a lot, I'd think; b) Taylor Green's natural position is 2B & he's blocked at least temporarily at 1B & 3B; and c) Gennett gives them depth & an option past Green & the utility IF types.

 

- Since he's not as bad as he's generally been much of this year, I wonder if Melvin doesn't make a move before Sept. 1 to move Nyjer to a contender. That would net an asset & open a roster spot for Schafer (most likely) or possibly Gindl or even eventually Khris Davis.

 

- If I could get someone to take K-Rod & part of his salary before season's end, I do it ASAP and run away before they change their mind.

[chad25]

Ok Ill just refine my opinion on "Which way would I go".......For 2013

 

In MY perfect world......

 

Rotation

1)Yovani Gallardo

2)Shaun Marcum (resign him)

3)Roy Oswalt

4)Michael Fiers

5)Wily Peralta

 

-Average Rotation with potential to be very good.

 

Bullpen

John Axford

Donovan Hand

Livan Hernandez

Mark Rodgers

Marco Estrada

Phillipe Aumont

Justin De Fratus

 

-Id trade Taylor Green, Logan Schafer, Cody Scarpetta to the Phillies for RP Phillipe Aumont and Justin De Fratus. Have 3 long relievers to backup injuries and young end of rotation. 2 young power arms through trade and let De Fratus set up for Axford. If he slumps again, put one of them in as closer.

 

Lineup

C: Jonathon Lucroy, John Buck

1B: Corey Hart

2B: Rickie Weeks

3B: Aramis Ramirez

SS: Jean Segura

Backup IF: Eric Farris, Jeff Bianchi, Jose Lopez

LF: Ryan Braun

CF:Carlos Gomez

RF: Norichika Aoki

4th OF: Caleb Gindl

 

-You get John Buck through a trade with the Miami Marlins. Trade Mat Gamel and Martin Maldonado for John Buck (they pay $4 mil of his $6 mil salary), Adam Conley, Adam Brice, Jose Urena, and Jose Alvarez. Just adding more arms to the minors. Sign Lopez in free agency to backup 3B and 1B

 

I KNOW, I KNOW.... only 1 lefty bat on the bench and no lefty arms at all on the pitching staff. Now tear it apart, thats my favorite part

[logan82]

Due to this down-spiraling season ("Your 2012 Milwaukee Brewers: One step forward & two steps back!"), this board has been rife with suggested plans to sell of everything of value short of Braun, Lucroy/Maldonado, & now Segura. That is a plan I don't want anything to do with.

Very few posters do. At most I have seen people say that you listen to offers on every player not named Braun. I don't think there are more than a handful of people that want to make drastic changes. Of course you are always going to get the DFA everyone posts but those don't deserve to even be addressed. What I am seeing is that people want to trade guys that will not help the team for more than a year or two for guys that will help for 6+ years. Of course if you add up each guy mentioned from every single post you are going to come to the conclusion that the board wants to trade the whole team. You have to separate each poster from the group and address posts one at a time on it's own merit.

[adambr2]

And on that note, I certainly wouldn't advocate a fire-sale, and do think there are still plenty of pieces on this team that could be part of a contender.

 

But I'm of the camp that believes that you listen to all offers at all times. If the Nationals call inquiring on Braun, you listen. They're going to have to blow you out of the water and offer a package like Strasburg, Zimmerman, and Harper, but you still listen.

[Roderick]

 

RP 5: Narveson (LR, 500k)

RP 6: Estrada (1.5mil)

 

C: Lucroy (850k), Muldonado (500k)

 

 

And please don't disect this idea.

 

Not disecting, just clarifying.

 

I have Lucroy at $1.9M next year.

 

Estrada is still in his last year of cheap = $570K (give or take what the Brewers decide to pay him).

 

Narveson will be interesting as he will be in his first year of arby and if he is in as bad a shape that some imply here, then the Brewers won't offer arby and he would be a free agent I believe. If the Brewers think he would eventually get back to health and don't want to risk losing him, they could offer arby and pay $1.5M (guess)..... Maybe I am wrong on this scenario.

[monty57]

I think we got really lucky getting a major league ready young prospect at our most difficult "sucking black hole" of a position of negative equity.. SS. Go Jean Segura!!

 

I don't think we got lucky. Getting valuable players at positions of need is the reason you trade valuable players away. Greinke is a good player, but by trading him we were able to bring back more value. I love the thought of having Segura for six (or very possibly 8-9 with a "Lucroy-style" extension) years. Prior to the trade, I heard many posters saying we could never compete without extending Greinke. Now everyone is ecstatic that we have Segura, because he's a big piece that will help keep us competitive for a long time. He can become a new "core player." Few are still talking about how we're doomed without Greinke (or Fielder, Sabathia, etc who "we couldn't win without").

 

Hart is a valuable player. I like him. He has been a "core player" for a long time. If I could turn his final year of "control" for a Segura-level player who can become a "core player" for six+ seasons, I'd do it in a heartbeat, especially since we have in-house options to replace him. This might mean we have slightly lessened our (already slim) playoff chances in 2013, but another Segura-level prospect would greatly enhance our chances for a long time into the future, and would give us tremendous financial flexibilty.

 

Ramirez is a different situation. I don't like the back-ended contract, but since we didn't extend Greinke we don't need the salary relief. If we trade Hart for another pre-arby guy who will fit in at the MLB level, we really don't need the salary relief. Simply inserting one or two good pre-arby guys can significantly effect the payroll situation in a positive way. The "cost per win" stuff is all fine-and-dandy, but it's pretty useless to me when deciding which direction to go. If we don't have the money, I don't care if a stat-table says someone is "underpaid," as we'd need to dump him. If we have excess cash, I certainly wouldn't give away a productive player for nothing just because he's providing "even value" in comparison to what he's paid. The only times to give away a player for nothing are either if you need salary relief or if the player is a clubhouse cancer... neither is the case with Ramirez.

 

If we could find someone who would take on the entire contract and send us some really good prospects, I'd have to consider trading Ramirez. If we don't get that offer, then Ramirez will remain a Brewer. I don't think it's very likely he's going to be traded, and will probably be a Brewer for two more seasons.

 

For those talking about trading away our good young players for relievers... really!?! That's like trading someone a $20 bill for a $5 bill. I understand that our bullpen has cost us a lot this season, but let's not go overboard. We should be able to get some of our 2013 bullpen from the minors, and I have no problem with Melvin offering one-year deals to some veteran relievers. I really hope he doesn't trade away our decent trading chips for relievers. They're the least valuable players on a team, and they are a crapshoot from one year to the next. It's very possible that Loe, Parra, Veras and K-Rod are all good relievers next year, and it's very possible that whatever relievers we'd buy with Gamel, Green, young pitching, etc would be every bit as bad as this year's Brewer bullpen has been. Melvin has a habit of getting himself in a situation where he's stuck with the underperformers because he can't send them to the minors to get things figured out. Hopefully soon we will have a bunch of guys from our farm who can fill out out 'pen for league minimum and with options remaining. We're not quite there yet, but should be in a year or two.

[chad25]

Monty57

For those talking about trading away our good young players for relievers... really!?! That's like trading someone a $20 bill for a $5 bill. I understand that our bullpen has cost us a lot this season, but let's not go overboard. We should be able to get some of our 2013 bullpen from the minors, and I have no problem with Melvin offering one-year deals to some veteran relievers. I really hope he doesn't trade away our decent trading chips for relievers. They're the least valuable players on a team, and they are a crapshoot from one year to the next. It's very possible that Loe, Parra, Veras and K-Rod are all good relievers next year, and it's very possible that whatever relievers we'd buy with Gamel, Green, young pitching, etc would be every bit as bad as this year's Brewer bullpen has been. Melvin has a habit of getting himself in a situation where he's stuck with the underperformers because he can't send them to the minors to get things figured out. Hopefully soon we will have a bunch of guys from our farm who can fill out out 'pen for league minimum and with options remaining. We're not quite there yet, but should be in a year or two.

 

I think thats just me. I said I'd trade Logan Schafer, Taylor Green, and possibly Cody Scarpetta (if they wanted an extra arm in the deal, and Scarpetta might have to go to the bullpen with his arm issues).

 

And to clarify, the Phillies would give us Aumont and De Fratus, but you could possibly ask for 3B prospect Maikel Franco if they really value what we offer (Im just not sure of other teams opinions on Green and Schafer, we all seem to look at them highly).

 

Aumont and De Fratus are major league ready prospects that the Phillies are probably going to bring up this sepmtember so if we traded for them, and they started underperforming, we could send them back down. They have options. I dont want to spend money on another FA reliever because the only "good" ones might cost us a fair amount of money.

 

I dont view Schafer and Green as valuable to this team next year (and future years) as others on this forum do. Pertaining to that, those guys have nothing left to prove in AAA and would just be backups on this team (without trades done). I want to reward them with the chance to start somewhere else, and not just use them as fill-ins because they are cheap. So thats why I would trade them this offseason.

[monty57]

I dont view Schafer and Green as valuable to this team next year (and future years) as others on this forum do.

 

Morgan and Gomez will probably each make $3MM or so next season, so there's a pretty good chance that at least Morgan will be non-tendered, and it wouldn't be completely out of the question that the Brewers think Gomez's hot second half makes him a good trade candidate. At the very least, Schafer should be our 4th OF next year, is pretty likely to be the left-handed part of a platoon with Gomez, and could possibly be our starting CF.

 

Green is the primary back-up at 2B and 3B. Weeks and Ramirez both played injury-free this season, but there's a good chance one of them will lose some time next year, at which point I'd rather see Green everyday than see Ransom everyday.Both are certainly tradeable, but they have value to the Brewers. Even with the Segura pick-up, we are still pretty thin on position players prospects... especially MLB-ready ones. If we made your trade, we'd kill our depth and put the team in a position of significant risk if someone gets injured next season.

 

To me, signing a couple of relievers on one-year / $3-5MM deals is less risky than trading away our top (at least most MLB-ready) position prospects for relievers. I'm happy we traded Kottaras for someone who will likely be in the pen next year, as Kottaras was obviously the odd-man out in Milwaukee. Hopefully we can make a similar trade with Morgan, as he'll probably be non-tendered.

 

Other than a handful of elite guys, relievers are very up-and-down from season to season. I'd rather not "spend" young, cost-controlled position players who could contribute in Milwaukee for relievers.

[chad25]

I dont think Ransom will be back. He has nothing to offer us. I would rather have Cesar Izturis than him. Yes he's a righty with power but he strikes out WAY too much. I hope he's not back.

 

Thats why I want the brewers to sign a backup in the offseason. Im not sure if they will keep Ishikawa. What they do with him will decide who they might sign in free agency.

 

--->If they keep him, I'd like them to sign Jeff Keppinger, Marco Scutaro or Freddy Sanchez. Whoever is the cheapest. Then bring up Bianchi to be middle IF depth.

 

--->If they dont offer him arby, I'd like to see them get Eric Chavez, but I think he might be too expensive. They could go after Mark Teahen. He'd be real inexpensive and can play 3B, 1B or RF. Lefty too. I went with Jose Lopez. He's young, bats right, and can play 3B 2B and 1B

 

Yeah your right, if we had an injury we would have very little depth but only in the IF. We will have Gindl, Prince, Haydel, and both Davis's in AAA (Im sure one of those guys will remain in AA) so there is organizational depth. Maybe not as good as Schafer could be, but depth nontheless. Sign a free agent IFer for depth there.

 

Injuries happen but you dont plan for them. The Brewers have shown that even when you lose 2 starters and a third for 2 months, you can still have a productive lineup. In the NL: 4th in runs scored, 1st in HRs, 4th in SLG, 4th in OPS.

 

I'll stick by my opinion that we should trade Green, Gamel, Maldonado, and Schafer (most hesitant to trade him) but you do have really valid points.

[monty57]

Im not sure if they will keep Ishikawa. What they do with him will decide who they might sign in free agency.

 

What they do with Hart and with the {probable} one veteran starting pitcher they'll sign will determine the direction of the offseason. If they trade him, we'll get another pre-arby guy(s) to fit in somewhere. We'll have Gamel as a starter with either Ishikawa or someone else as the backup. If they keep Hart, then Gamel will probably be the primary backup, with Hart getting some starts in RF, but predominantly at 1B. What they do with Ishikawa is completely dependant on what happens with far more important players on the roster. If your scenario of trading Gamel for a reliever played out, then yes Ishikawa would probably be the primary backup.

 

If they sign someone like Marcum to a one-year deal, they will be able to field a decent rotation while allowing some young guys to "get their feet wet" at the MLB level. Marcum could be flipped at the deadline if he's healthy and pitching well, and the Brewers are out of it. If they sign someone to a multi-year deal, then in my opinion they are simply blocking some players who should be in the MLB rotation in a year or two. If they somehow end up signing Greinke, all hell will break loose, because they will either have to trade some salaries to cover him, or they're "all in" and will do things no one on here will correctly predict.

 

If they keep him, I'd like them to sign Jeff Keppinger, Marco Scutaro or Freddy Sanchez. Whoever is the cheapest. Then bring up Bianchi to be middle IF depth.

 

If they dont offer him arby, I'd like to see them get Eric Chavez, but I think he might be too expensive. They could go after Mark Teahen. He'd be real inexpensive and can play 3B, 1B or RF. Lefty too. I went with Jose Lopez. He's young, bats right, and can play 3B 2B and 1B

 

So it sounds to me like I'd keep Green, Gamel, Maldonado, Bianchi and Schafer as our bench (all talented and being paid league minimum) and sign a couple vet relievers to one-year $3-5MM deals to hold the fort until our minor league pitchers are ready to fill in the bullpen.

 

You would trade Green, Gamel, Maldonado and Schafer for relievers and sign vets to replace Green, Gamel, Maldonado and Schafer.

 

I think my option is less risky (at least long-term) and more feasible. I don't know that you'd be able to sign some of the guys you're looking at (A) for the amount of money we'd be willing to pay and (B) to sit the bench on a team that isn't likely to make the World Series. If we went your route, what do we do in 2013 when our entire bench leaves and we don't have anyone in the minors? Do we simply patch a bench together every season? How much would your bench cost? I also don't think everyone you mentioned will be free agents. The list of IF FA's according to Cot's who do not have options in their contracts (1B Carlos Lee, James Loney 2B Jeff Baker, Jeff Keppinger, Freddy Sanchez, Skip Shumaker SS Geoff Blum, Luis Rodriguez, Ryan Theriot 3B Miguel Cairo, Maicer Izturis, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Scott Rolen). I don't see Teahen or Scutaro.

 

Injuries happen but you dont plan for them.

 

Of course you do. You don't know who's going to get hurt, which is why you try to build as much depth as possible. This year's team had unexpected players step up in a big way (Fiers and Estrada for Narveson and Marcum, Maldonado and Kottaras for Lucroy, Hart and Aoki for Gamel) and have suffered at the one position they didn't have depth (Gonzalez). If you take away Maldonado, Green, Gamel and Schafer, along with the probability that they are going to non-tender Morgan, they will be seriously deficient in depth if basically anyone gets hurt. You can't expect someone to step out of seemingly nowhere every year and post an OPS in the upper .700's (Maldonado, Aoki) or an ERA under 3 (Fiers).

 

OF would be our deepest position, but there would be a lot of questions as to whether the guys you mentioned are MLB ready. How good is our playoff shot next year if we have an OF of Braun, Josh Prince and Lee Haydel for a significant period? The only reason to trade away pre-arby guys like Green, Maldonado, Gamel and Schafer for relievers would be to push for the playoffs in 2013. Besides not being a strategy I like (all in for one year), I don't think it would even make our team better in the season we'd be going "all in."

 

I've wished for a long time that we could have pre-arby guys both contributing at the MLB level as starters and in "role player" positions. Next year we will have some pre-arby guys starting (Lucroy, Segura and maybe Gamel and Schafer), some pre-arby guys in the rotation (Fiers, Estrada, and maybe one of Peralta, Thornburg, Rogers), and some pre-arby guys on the bench (Maldonado, Bianchi, Green, maybe Gamel and Schafer). We are still not quite to the point where our bullpen will consist of a really strong group of pre-arby guys from our farm, but we will have a few, like Henderson and De Los Santos, and we are not far away from having a lot of other guys who can't quite make it as big-league starters but will make good bullpen candidates. Give us one year of vets on $3-5MM deals, and we should be able to field a strong bullpen with young guys from our farm. Please don't trade away our few decent pre-arby position players to fix a problem that will fix itself soon enough.