2013: Which way would you go?

[clancyphile]

So we have all talked about trading Hart and Ramirez. What about making trades to pick up bullpen guys? I know we could go after guys like Mike Adams, Grant Balfour, or Brandon League. But Im curious as to think what we would have to trade to the Phillies to get 2 of the following players: Relievers Phillipe Aumont and Justin De Fratus, and 3B Maikel Franco.

 

I dont think they want to move either of them because they have had recent Bullpen struggles as well but they are looking to get cheaper at CF and 3B. Could we send them Logan Schafer and Taylor Green? Maybe throw in a lower level arm too. They would have more money to sign some decent relievers.

 

Although Im not sure how valuable other teams view both Schafer and Green.....

 

Schaefer and Green are still young and cheap. I'd prefer not to deal them unless I got blown away by an offer for them. At this point, I see the contracts of Ramirez and Hart as potential problems - I can think of better ways to spend about $36 million over the next two years. In Hart's case, if the old comp system were in place (offer arby to get comp picks), it would be a tougher call, but the new system makes it more worthwhile to move Hart in the offseason.

 

Furthermore, if there are a lot of starters in the system, some can always be converted to the bullpen.

[monty57]

I think Schafer will replace Morgan next year, saving us around $2.5MM. I'd like to see us trade for a long-term bullpen answer, but I don't like trading a potentially useful pre-arby guy for a bullpen arm. It'd be great if someone would bite on Morgan over the next couple of weeks. I don't really know who else I'd trade for bullpen help... Maybe the one of Ransom/Bianchi who Melvin doesn't think will be Segura's backup next year.

[faede]

So we have all talked about trading Hart and Ramirez. What about making trades to pick up bullpen guys? I know we could go after guys like Mike Adams, Grant Balfour, or Brandon League. But Im curious as to think what we would have to trade to the Phillies to get 2 of the following players: Relievers Phillipe Aumont and Justin De Fratus, and 3B Maikel Franco.

 

I dont think they want to move either of them because they have had recent Bullpen struggles as well but they are looking to get cheaper at CF and 3B. Could we send them Logan Schafer and Taylor Green? Maybe throw in a lower level arm too. They would have more money to sign some decent relievers.

 

Although Im not sure how valuable other teams view both Schafer and Green.....

 

Schaefer and Green are still young and cheap. I'd prefer not to deal them unless I got blown away by an offer for them. At this point, I see the contracts of Ramirez and Hart as potential problems - I can think of better ways to spend about $36 million over the next two years. In Hart's case, if the old comp system were in place (offer arby to get comp picks), it would be a tougher call, but the new system makes it more worthwhile to move Hart in the offseason.

 

Furthermore, if there are a lot of starters in the system, some can always be converted to the bullpen.

 

This is frustrating.

 

Id be interested to know how you plan to replace two .850 ops (well over that in the case of aramis) 4+ war players. If you say taylor green, schafer or gindl, im going to politely chuckle.

 

Finding that type of consistent production is so completely underappreciated its amazing to me.

[chad25]

I would like Schafer replace Morgan as well but if the Phillies were to offer up two major league ready relievers with back-end of the bullpen stuff for a 4th OF and backup IF (at least thats what Schafer and Green would be on our team next year, unless trades are made), I'd take it in a heartbeat. I just think both Aumont and De Fratus have more value to us next year and the years beyond than Green and Schafer.

 

Of course I wouldn't be thinking of this trade if our bullpen hadn't lost us 30 games this year (that number might me off).

 

Ok here's another trade I thought of: Trading Mat Gamel and Martin Maldonado to the Miami Marlins for John Buck and prospects Adam Conley, Jose Urena, and Brian Flynn.......

 

John Buck makes 6 million next year so they'd have to pay 4 million of it. That would give us some more quality young arms that can all start or relief and Buck to backup Lucroy for a year. The Marlins need a young, cheap 1B and C (both of whom could be good). I don't think the Marlins would give up any of their top prospects for a guy coming off a torn ACL and a C with one good 2/3 of an MLB year. So thats why I chose those prospects..... what do you think?

[slappzilla]

This is frustrating.

 

Id be interested to know how you plan to replace two .850 ops (well over that in the case of aramis) 4+ war players. If you say taylor green, schafer or gindl, im going to politely chuckle.

 

Finding that type of consistent production is so completely underappreciated its amazing to me.

You won't find that type of production. You're right.

 

It's also probable that the Brewers won't contend in 2013. At least I don't think they will. Hart is gone come 2014 and Aramis is slated to make $16M in 2014. Shed that money now and we'll see what we have in the young guys during 2013, then in 2014 Doug can spend bank on filling the needed holes and boom, guaranteed world series run.

[faede]

It's also probable that the Brewers won't contend in 2013. At least I don't think they will. Hart is gone come 2014 and Aramis is slated to make $16M in 2014. Shed that money now and we'll see what we have in the young guys during 2013, then in 2014 Doug can spend bank on filling the needed holes and boom, guaranteed world series run.

 

See, that's my biggest problem. Why is it probable that we won't contend? Baseball is so fun because the key is to "just get to the playoffs". In the playoffs, anything can happen!!! Not to mention, it's the Cardinals, Reds and even moreso, Pirates who have the juice in the farm system that's nearing the big leagues (that's not even considering the Cubs).

 

We have 22 blown saves this year. Worst in the league. If we were even at league average we'd have 8 to 9 more wins. And that's is just looking at blown saves. Our bullpen has been epic bad.

 

In terms of hitting, despite a massive hole at SS, a massive slump from Ricky Weeks and a fluke injury to Lucroy, we're amongst the leaders in hitting in the NL. We're 4th in team ISO and non-pitching WAR. We can even expect a bit of a bump hitting in next season if Segura works out and we stay relatively injury free.

 

Fix the bullpen, grab one FA starting pitcher and we're right there, statistically. Here's the best news, we probably have enough money and potential pitching prospects to do just that! Why give up on 2013???

[TooLiveBrew]

Why is it probable that we won't contend?

 

I'm not sure some Brewers fans have realistic expectations about what the pitching staff will do in 2013. The rotation might work out ok, but as of right now the entire bullpen is a question mark. That's 7 pitchers, and obviously this season has shown what effect a disastrous bullpen can have.

 

 

Fix the bullpen

 

What is your approach to do so?

[3and2Fastball]

I've had to really adjust my thinking about Aramis Ramirez. I cringed when we signed him and feared that he was over the hill but he's been one of the top 2 or 3 3B's in MLB this year. The Brewers won't be rebuilding next season, they are re-tooling and working at contending in 2013, so I see no reason whatsoever to trade Aramis, and I think realistically the chances of trading Aramis are very slim, Melvin won't do it.

 

I like Segura's potential a lot. I think he should be hitting 7th though, I want to see him stealing bases and there don't seem to be many SB chances coming up with him hitting 8th

 

I'm a big fan of Mike Fiers. I'm cautiously optimistic that he will be our ace for the next 5 years. Fiers-Gallardo and pray for rain doesn't sound good, but there are a lot of "if's" included in there (if Rogers is for real, if Peralta will be ready, if Marcum is brought back for one year and "if" he is healthy)

 

I suppose I'd focus the most on shoring up the bullpen in the off-season and figure out 3-5 in the rotation

[Nottso]

You won't find that type of production. You're right.

 

It's also probable that the Brewers won't contend in 2013. At least I don't think they will. Hart is gone come 2014 and Aramis is slated to make $16M in 2014. Shed that money now and we'll see what we have in the young guys during 2013, then in 2014 Doug can spend bank on filling the needed holes and boom, guaranteed world series run.

 

I don't think Hart being gone in 2014 is a forgone conclusion by any means, unless I've missed something (which happens more often than not).

[paul253]

I don't think Hart being gone in 2014 is a forgone conclusion by any means, unless I've missed something (which happens more often than not).

 

Neither do I and that worries me a bit. Maybe they move Weeks or Ramirez but if not and they sign Hart to say a $13 million a year contract, by 2014 you're looking at $61 million tied up in 5 players (Braun, Weeks, Ramirez, Hart and Gallardo). That doesn't leave a whole lot of room for error or investments in other guys. I'd throw Hart's name out there this offseason and see if you can't maybe get a decent third base prospect for him.

[faede]

I'm not sure some Brewers fans have realistic expectations about what the pitching staff will do in 2013. The rotation might work out ok, but as of right now the entire bullpen is a question mark. That's 7 pitchers, and obviously this season has shown what effect a disastrous bullpen can have.

 

I'm not sure that's the point of contention. I feel like many fans are trying to "fix" the problem by making another problem. The lineup is as solid as you are going to get for a mid-market team. In my opinion, too many people are saying.. Trade Hart and Aramis for some type of long term fix to the rotation/bullpen. There's four problems I have with that thinking.

 

1. It's dang hard to find Aramis/Hart (and obviously Aramis is the key for me) type players. That fact is being woefully underestimated.

2. The prospect pathway does not 1) guarantee you a good result, prospects are still unproven and 2)does not guarantee when that result will occur on the time frame we want (2014)

3. A once-in-a-generation type talent (Ryan Braun) does not happen often. It's essential to maximize the window of opportunity while he's still in his prime.

4. We're much better prepared, prospectwise, to shore up pitching then we are position.. ESPECIALLY 3rd base, which essentially has zero replacement for Aramis currently and in the not distant future.

 

Fix the bullpen

 

What is your approach to do so?

 

Depends what is available in the offseason and the rest of the season. But that, again, is somewhat my point. We currently have no idea what we have. Advocating all these trades is doing so without a solid understanding of what we have and don't have. If I've learned anything in management of project/people etc. To get to where you want to be, you have to know where you are at. "Know thyself".

 

So, here's a gameplan as a rough starting point:

-Assess Mark Rogers, Mike Fiers, Jim Henderson at the major league level. (shutdown Fiers and Rogers when required)

-Promote and assess Wily Peralta, Hiram Burgos, Jesus Sanchez, Fausto De Los Santos and Tyler Thornberg at the major league level.

-Promote and assess Khris Davis at the major league level in the same way Jean Segura is getting time (RF, platoon Aoki and Gomez in CF)

-Make an attempt at a #1 starter in the offseason. Greinke would be the #1 FA target. If not in Free Agency, a "Grienke-like" trade would be ideal.

-If no #1's are possible, a 2/3 type must be obtained (Edwin Jackson, Marcum, Liriano etc).

-At least two solid FA Relievers (Betancourt, Belisle, Burnett, Marshall etc.)

-At least two replacement relievers (Henderson, Sanchez, De Los Santos (and I'd move Estrada back to the bullpen too) etc)

 

Just stuff off the top of my head, but, it doesn't seem that unattainable.

[TooLiveBrew]

1. It's dang hard to find Aramis/Hart (and obviously Aramis is the key for me) type players. That fact is being woefully underestimated.

 

No it's not. At least not by the vast majority, including those who want to deal one or both of them. And certainly not by the fans that want to keep both... you get it in seemingly every other response, if not more.

 

I enjoyed reading through your response. The 2013 rotation is looking like it's in better shape than the bullpen, which is both an odd and good problem to have. For your note on making an attempt at a #1, I want no part of another rental/lease trade like the Greinke deal, but would be all about turning some of the prospect quantity in the minors into one quality young SP the Brewers would control for the next 4-6 seasons. An example would be jumping on a situation like earlier this season where Shelby Miller (STL) was struggling & was reportedly very available in trade rumors.

 

If the plan is to spend on an arm like Edwin Jackson, and then add two overpriced RPs, you're probably looking at guaranteeing Jackson somewhere around $30M-$50M over three or four years, and then tack on another... what... $10M+ to pay for two 'established' bullpen arms for one season. Not to mention all of the guys you used as possible examples underscore the other downside to paying for FA RPs -- they're old/older & you can't predict very well what production you'll get going forward.

 

I just loathe the idea that the Brewers will continue with the same approach, and keep throwing money at the previous season's problems every year. Granted, that's been Melvin's m.o. for the most part in his time as GM, but I wish the organization would start developing some tangible form of long-term plan. Otherwise, imo we will be talking about 'what might have been' once Braun is in his declining years. I don't care if the team goes with an approach that places less emphasis on winning in 2013 or not, as long as the long-term plan is there. Right now, I don't see one (from Melvin).

[faede]

I love your counterpoints. Very well put and I can definitely understand where you are coming from.

 

I must admit, my blueprint is probably kinda crappy. I don't even like it much and I made it!

 

That being said, I still think we have to take a good hard look at what we have to figure out how to plug holes. Until we know what we have, it's almost impossible to plug the holes, but, I do think we have enough knowledge of what we have to say that it would be really really difficult to replace the production of Aramis Ramirez in 2013 OR 2014 if he is traded in the offseason.

[adambr2]

I think TLB pretty much summed up exactly what I feel the problems with the direction of this organization are.

 

I just don't really see any long-term plan here, it's strictly year to year, trying to fix what went wrong the year before and plug a hole in the boat only for a bigger hole to show up on the other side.

 

So from what I know of Melvin, the solution this offseason is going to be to go out and sign 3-4 relievers in free agency, and I just don't think that's the answer here.

[faede]

I think TLB pretty much summed up exactly what I feel the problems with the direction of this organization are.

 

I just don't really see any long-term plan here, it's strictly year to year, trying to fix what went wrong the year before and plug a hole in the boat only for a bigger hole to show up on the other side.

 

So from what I know of Melvin, the solution this offseason is going to be to go out and sign 3-4 relievers in free agency, and I just don't think that's the answer here.

 

Fair enough, but what long term plan are you looking for?

 

I think he had a pretty darn good plan to start off with. Rebuild the minor league system and when it hits the majors, use the minors to get what you need to finish off the roster. Last year was worth the push. The Greinke trade was a good one and we got .75cents on the dollar for the prospects we traded to get him. If not for the Marcum injury, I'd imagine we'd have got a decent haul for him mid season as well.

 

I just think there is a plan out there that could and would work that doesn't just "scrap" 2013 and hope that doing so gets us enough to compete in 2014.

[TooLiveBrew]

Last year was worth the push.

 

I don't agree, but I'm guessing I'm very much in the minority. Just wanted to respond to this, since I think it's a very central part of the team-building disagreements.

[chad25]

I keep seeing people say "we don't have a long-term plan". But in my opinion they do. We have a talented lineup for years to come. Our pitching staff is getting younger due to the influx of talent ready to come up in the next few years. The only older players I dont see in their long-term plans are Ramirez and Marcum. But Aram can be useful for the next 2 years while we look for a young 3B/prospect and Marcum is just a stop-gap starter until our young arms come up. And we are rebuilding our Farm system..... No team is ever complete, having no questions or aging players that are just fill-ins.

[TooLiveBrew]

We have a talented lineup for years to come.

 

I guess I don't count 1-2 more years as "years to come".

[thebruce44]

1. It's dang hard to find Aramis/Hart (and obviously Aramis is the key for me) type players. That fact is being woefully underestimated.

2. The prospect pathway does not 1) guarantee you a good result, prospects are still unproven and 2)does not guarantee when that result will occur on the time frame we want (2014)

3. A once-in-a-generation type talent (Ryan Braun) does not happen often. It's essential to maximize the window of opportunity while he's still in his prime.

4. We're much better prepared, prospectwise, to shore up pitching then we are position.. ESPECIALLY 3rd base, which essentially has zero replacement for Aramis currently and in the not distant future.

 

1. There were 13 1B that had a WAR above 2.5 last year and this year there are 23 corner OF that have a higher wOBA than Hart. ARam is owed 30 mil over the next two years. Its fairly "easy" to find players who will sign for their value.

 

2. We all know that. It does save money at certain positions though, allowing you to fill other holes through FA.

 

3. Yes, I would say it happens once in a generation. We got lucky and had it happen twice. A mini reload may be the best way to maximize that window.

 

4. With the way young pitching is, I don't know that I could ever say we have enough.

[adambr2]

I agree, I think that's a bit of a stretch. The offense should be fine next year, but the concern for me is how they're going to sustain the offense when the young pitchers finally start to show up in the rotation.

 

I'll give you Braun of course, and I'll even give you Weeks, Lucroy, and Segura. Beyond that, we have no viable long-term solutions at 1B, 3B, CF, or RF. Maybe Gomez still turns out to be the answer in CF, I could buy that, and maybe Gamel settles in at RF or 1B. But I haven't seen anything from Green, Gindl, or Schafer that makes me think that they're more than guys that will end up filling out an MLB bench for cheap.

[MNBrew]

...But I haven't seen anything from Green, Gindl, or Schafer that makes me think that they're more than guys that will end up filling out an MLB bench for cheap.

 

Of course you haven't seen anything from them. They're not killer power hitters, Green's old gotten a couple cups of coffee in the bigs (playing-time-wise), Schafer only got a small cup of coffee last September, and Gindl hasn't sniffed the bigs yet. And none of them are having the year this year in AAA like they did last year.

 

But that doesn't mean it can't happen. TH mention when Green was sent down that the Brewers are still high on him (2x minor league POY with a nasty hammate injury separating the 2x), obviously Gamel has done nothing but hit well in the minors, and Schafer & Gindl have a lot going for them. Maybe none of them are future All-Stars. But Jeff Cirillo (to cite one example) was never an All-Star but he was a good hitter, a great fielder, and the type of guy who usually helped & never hurt the team . . . and I'd like to think Green and/or Gamel have at least Cirillo-type potential. Certainly Cirillo came up with far less fan recognition at the time than Green & Gamel have.

[Nottso]

Here's what I don't get. A lot of you want to deal Hart and/or Ramirez, to free up money with which to sign free agents that would presumably fill other holes. In this scenario, you're hoping that the prospects taking the place of Hart and/or Ramirez will pan out and you're also hoping that the newly acquired free agents will perform to their value.

 

Why not then just fill those other holes mentioned above with prospects and hope that they pan out, while keeping the known commodities of Hart and Ramirez?

[rluzinski]

Aramis's contract was very backloaded. The Brewers are on the hook for at least $30 mil for 2013 and 2014 (assuming they take the 2015 buyout). Unless we project him to be a 4 WAR player for the next two years, I don't think his contract looks very good going forward.

 

I'd just keep trade Hart (or trade him at the 2013 deadline, assuming the Brewers aren't in contention).

 

Why not then just fill those other holes mentioned above with prospects and hope that they pan out, while keeping the known commodities of Hart and Ramirez?

 

I would only advocate trading them if the return is worth more than their net value. In Armis's case, I don't think he has any net value. If you traded him for nothing, you theoretically net the $4ish (WAG) negative net value his contract currently has. Of course, you need to find players that have a positive net value to make up for his loss.

[adambr2]

...But I haven't seen anything from Green, Gindl, or Schafer that makes me think that they're more than guys that will end up filling out an MLB bench for cheap.

 

Of course you haven't seen anything from them. They're not killer power hitters, Green's old gotten a couple cups of coffee in the bigs (playing-time-wise), Schafer only got a small cup of coffee last September, and Gindl hasn't sniffed the bigs yet. And none of them are having the year this year in AAA like they did last year.

 

But that doesn't mean it can't happen. TH mention when Green was sent down that the Brewers are still high on him (2x minor league POY with a nasty hammate injury separating the 2x), obviously Gamel has done nothing but hit well in the minors, and Schafer & Gindl have a lot going for them. Maybe none of them are future All-Stars. But Jeff Cirillo (to cite one example) was never an All-Star but he was a good hitter, a great fielder, and the type of guy who usually helped & never hurt the team . . . and I'd like to think Green and/or Gamel have at least Cirillo-type potential. Certainly Cirillo came up with far less fan recognition at the time than Green & Gamel have.

 

Of course it can happen -- you never know. Maldonado was far and away a better player this year than I thought he was going to be at the big league level. I'm just saying that I think the most likely scenario right now is that Green/Schafer/Gindl probably project closer to bench players than average MLB starters.

[TooLiveBrew]

Here's what I don't get. A lot of you want to deal Hart and/or Ramirez, to free up money with which to sign free agents that would presumably fill other holes. In this scenario, you're hoping that the prospects taking the place of Hart and/or Ramirez will pan out and you're also hoping that the newly acquired free agents will perform to their value.

 

Why not then just fill those other holes mentioned above with prospects and hope that they pan out, while keeping the known commodities of Hart and Ramirez?

Most of what I see on BF from people advocating dealing Hart & Ramirez has very little to do with freeing up payroll, and almost everything to do with capitalizing on player value. The idea behind possibly trading these two is that the return the Brewers would receive would increase the overall talent in the organization, and set the Brewers up to contend for a significantly longer window than just 2013 or '13-'14.

 

So, for a short answer to your question..., the reason you don't keep Hart is that he's only guaranteed to be a Brewer for one more season; the reason you don't keep Ramirez is to capitalize on how good he is now before you're overpaying him for his age-36 & 37 seasons.

 

If you dare, here's my long-form version of the answer:

 

I think the case for re-signing Hart is fairly interesting, because I think it's based very evenly in three areas of player value: 1) talent/production, 2) familiarity/proven/track record, 3) fan-love. It makes sense that those who are opposed to the idea of going with 'unproven' players would value Corey fairly highly in category 2. However, arguing that a player needs to be 'proven' as justification for re-signing Hart is particularly ironic, since it wasn't too long ago that many on BF were calling for his outright release and saying he'd never turn into a productive hitter... he was too inconsistent & 'unproven'.

 

On category 1, I have little doubt Corey Hart will continue to hit for a low- to mid-.800s OPS for another four to six seasons or so. However, I believe that Gamel will also put up OPS totals consistently in that range, and he is under team salary control for four more seasons after 2012. So that's another wrinkle to the argument, that Gamel will give you very similar production to Hart and be significantly less expensive (even if Hart signs a team-friendly deal, you're probably talking at least $12M AAV). I think in terms of defense at 1B, these two are a toss-up, or at least close enough that I don't think it is worth worrying about.

 

For #3, I have to admit that the fanboy in me wants to see Hart extended & play out his career as a Brewer. I've enjoyed watching him develop into the consistent middle-of-the-order bat he's become, and honestly his developmental path is a main reason why I got interested in following MiLB.

 

On Ramirez, the concern is not necessarily about 2013, but that he's owed a lot of money for his age-36 season (2015)... and that since he's still a top-level MLB 3B who wouldn't just be a rental acquisition, he could bring back some very legit talent via trade. And again, that would be to generate a longer potential window of contention than just '13 or '13-'15.

 

I understand why people are fearful of going with a plan that is based around players that haven't yet arrived at or succeeded in MLB. I just don't want to see the Brewers wait until after 2014 or 2015 to realize they should be re-tooling or re-loading, because at that point there might not be a lot of marketable talent left to trade. Basically, my fear is that the Brewers will focus on trying to turn a mediocre team into a WS contender in one offseason, and then return to having the cupboard bare in 2014 & beyond.