2013: Which way would you go?

[faede]

2/30 is still going to water down the prospects. I think you have to eat 6mil to make it a really viable. And fair too as the 6mil he's technically getting this year is such a ridiculous steal, it's amazing (fangraphs has him valued at 15.7mil right now).

 

To just shed a 5+WAR player would be completely unacceptable to me especially with almost no viable alternative behind. That's potentially a 7win swing as there is nobody at replacement level to take the spot. That is where we will completely disagree and I would imagine (thankfully, from my perspective), Melvin would agree with my opinion.

 

You just don't "dump" a .850 OPS guy (he's trending toward .900 in reality) if you want to have a successful team.

[slappzilla]

will he be a .850OPS guy in 2014 when he's making $16M?

 

best hope so.

[FVBrewerFan]

You just don't "dump" a .850 OPS guy (he's trending toward .900 in reality) if you want to have a successful team.

 

First, Chad25, please look into something called paragraphs. Not trying to be a jerk, just really hard to read.

 

No you don't dump a .850 OPS guy if he's 24 and you control him for 4 more years- as an example. You do dump a guy before he's going to make $16MM, and it would be a real surprise if he's over .800 by then.

 

I wouldn't be opposed to going into 2013 with Ramirez, and you can look to trade him at the deadline if we're out of the race. Even if that means paying part of his salary. How much would depend on the quality of prospect(s) we get back.

 

Same goes for Hart, really. Only he would be much easier to move as a rental, since it's the last year of his contract. I would be willing to discuss any deals for them during the off-season- you never know if there's a team out there that really covets one of those guys.

[thebruce44]

For that matter, could people attempt to capitalize and use somewhat correct grammar? Not trying to be a grammar Nazi or saying everything should be perfect, its just that lately this board is like reading a series of txt messages!!!! There has to be an in between, and lately I find myself just skipping most posts by certain users when they may have valuable insight.

[Nottso]

For that matter, could people attempt to capitalize and use somewhat correct grammar? Not trying to be a grammar Nazi or saying everything should be perfect, its just that lately this board is like reading a series of txt messages!!!! There has to be an in between, and lately I find myself just skipping most posts by certain users when they may have valuable insight.

 

I agree.

[chad25]

Paragraphed and Capitilized for you all. Hope its easier to read.

[thebruce44]

Paragraphed and Capitilized for you all. Hope its easier to read.

 

Thanks! I hate to admit that some days I only get to skim posts and having paragraphs with proper sentences makes it much easier.

[rluzinski]

Actually Hart ranks 8th among MLB first basemen by WAR right now, while 11th in RF. I'd say his relative value is pretty similar at both positions, though I'd lean towards 1st since observationally he looks like a better defender there.

 

If he looked the same defensively at RF and 1B, he wouldn't have the same value at either position. That is because he is moving between positions of different average defensive value. The question is, if Hart plays a better 1B than a RF (and we would expect him to), how much better is it and how does that compare to the average difference in value between 1B and RF? I can buy the possibility that Hart plays 1B well enough to make his value the same at 1B or a corner OF spot. I think we need to dispel the myth that he is "obviously" better at 1B, so we can't possibly consider him at any other position ever again.

[HiAndTight]

Every year, from here on out has to be "The Year" and with Braun and the other veteran position players in our lineup, it can be.

 

I could not disagree more. You don't make moves because fans want you to. You make moves to help build a successful franchise year in year out. 2012 was built as a another "the year" and look how it turned out. No offense to people like your friend, the "when does football start" crowd, but I find them very obnoxious. They obviously aren't true Brewers fans and they apparently have no idea how baseball works. It's not like football. You can "win now" a lot quicker in football than you can in baseball. And the economics are night and day.

 

The only way a franchise like Milwaukee can compete year in year out in not to sign big time free agents and trade all of your prospects for established players, but to build from within and make wise financial decisions.

 

The Brewers have a golden opportunity right now to obtain those young stars and start a run of successful years. They have a ton of pitching coming up, have a few stars (Braun, Lucroy) and some solid role players on their way (Kh Davis, Gennett, Schafer). I hate to say this but Corey Hart is not the difference between playoffs and no playoffs next season. So why not finally maximize someone's value and trade him while you can? By 2014, you'll still have Braun, Weeks, Lucroy and Ramirez. Davis will probably be ready. As will Schafer and Segura. Gennett will be close. Morris will be close. Gindl will be close, if not ready. Pitching wise, choose between Peralta, Thornburg, Jungmann, Burgos, Nelson, Hellweg, Pena, Fiers, Rogers, and Gallardo. Add whoever you can get for Hart (ideally a third basemen or another pitcher) and whoever you draft next season with your top 10 pick, plus a key free agent signing or two and this is the making of a very successful franchise. You don't have to overspend or trade away the farm just so the "when does football start" crowd pays attention. Win a few years in a row and you'll get their attention.

 

So wait you just said that the way we can compete is that you dont sign big time free agents, but you build your franchise from within. Then in the next paragraph you said in 2014 we should add a "key free agent signing or two" and this is a succesful franchise. So your arguing against what your saying a successful franchise like us should be. maybe i dont understand what your saying as it pertains to free agent signing.

 

IMO next years team is a competitive team already. Our lineup is on pace to score more runs than last years team, and thats even with Weeks throwing in a dud. If our lineup stays the same next year and we produce like this year (very possible), we'll be fine. Now look at pitching: The odds that our bullpen next year is as bad as THIS years bullpen are very slim. But our starting pitching will be a tad worse than this years.

 

Gallardo will give you the ups and the downs but still give you a mid 3 ERA. Marcum (if they bring him back) the same, maybe a little higher. Narveson, Fiers, and Peralta are all questions. But at worst case scenarios they have an average ERA of 4-4.2 . So just say our team ERA is (at worst) 4 or a little lower. about NL average.

 

Yes those are all "if's" and possibilities that will happen next year but so are the ideas people announce on here. You dont know that the player/players the brewers would get back in return for trading Hart and/or Ramirez will become anything in the bigs. Gamel is a question too and im a huge mat gamel fan. I just like knowing what we have, minimizing the risk, which is why Id want to keep hart and then let him go. Take the Comp pick. Gamel is cheaper but money really isnt an issue right now for us with Greinke, K-Rod, Marcum, and Wolf becoming FA's. Being a small market team means you have to take risks, but I like minimizing my risks I take.

 

You know in all honesty the brewers will probably trade Hart and/or Ramirez this offseason. Wouldn't surprise me. But its taking a risk on young talent at the corners, hoping they produce at MLB average levels. I don't like going into a season knowing/thinking its a rebuild year when I've seen what this team can do.

 

 

 

 

I'm bouncing my head off my desk right now.

 

 

Did you seriously NOT see what he wrote vs what YOU wrote? Some KEY Free Agents, ie, perhaps a pitcher LIKE a Grant Balfour and a Eric Hinske type player. A couple key, not BIG TIME Free Agents, some KEY Free Agents.

 

 

Second, I LOVE how the "worst case," scenario's for Fiers, Narveson and Peralta are 4.00-4.20 ERA's when Peralta's TRIPLE A ERA IS HIGHER!!! Sorry for the all caps, but I can't believe someone would write that. Another of those two pitchers is coming back from Tommy John surgery. And the third looks great, but not quite as good IMO as Cal Eldred did in 1992 and Eldred didn't turn into Maddux. Wow. I'm still in awe thatyou have that as worst case scenario.

 

 

Third, please for the LOVE OF GOD(Chris Farley voice) please STOP babbling, everyone, every single person, stop babbling about how the players you get back for a veteran might not turn out to be good. And a lot of them will. And guess what? Even all-star this year was a minor leaguer at some point? They where ALL unproven until they were proven.

 

That's why you have a SCOUTING STAFF!!!

[HiAndTight]

You just don't "dump" a .850 OPS guy (he's trending toward .900 in reality) if you want to have a successful team.

 

First, Chad25, please look into something called paragraphs. Not trying to be a jerk, just really hard to read.

 

No you don't dump a .850 OPS guy if he's 24 and you control him for 4 more years- as an example. You do dump a guy before he's going to make $16MM, and it would be a real surprise if he's over .800 by then.

 

I wouldn't be opposed to going into 2013 with Ramirez, and you can look to trade him at the deadline if we're out of the race. Even if that means paying part of his salary. How much would depend on the quality of prospect(s) we get back.

 

Same goes for Hart, really. Only he would be much easier to move as a rental, since it's the last year of his contract. I would be willing to discuss any deals for them during the off-season- you never know if there's a team out there that really covets one of those guys.

 

 

 

Aram's OPS the last 9 seasons have AVERAGED .890. He's at .874 and rising this year.

 

 

No, it would not be a "real surprise," if his OPS is over .800 in two years. It's be a REAL surprise if people keep questioning him...

[igor67]

Actually the WAR chart I was looking at gave Hart the same WAR rating for both RF and 1st, so they must already calculate the position adjustment as they play. Which leads to the surprising result that this year RFs are out performing 1st basemen. Actually as I recall that isn't that unusual, because as a group the RF tend to be more athletic and will often collectively outperform the plodding sluggers. Presumably due to things like defense, and base running. Which suggests that at best the position switch is somewhat nuetral from a value perspective.

[faede]

Im such a fan of aramis right now. Even his defense has been stellar this year. Such a great professional having an amazing year.

[xisxisxis]

I'm bouncing my head off my desk right now.

 

I forgot why I always read your username as HiAndUptight. That post cleared that up....

 

 

Another of those two pitchers is coming back from Tommy John surgery.

 

If you are referring to Narveson then he had rotator cuff surgery. Not nearly as routine nor predictable of a surgery as Tommy John Surgery. While I understand your point, he might be toast and likely won't be starting next year even if he has some success at recovery. Predicting him starting is a stretch all by itself.

[chad25]

haha..... I love that some people take what is said on this forum so seriously. These are just people's thoughts and ideas. I might say something you dont agree with or get my facts incorrect but jeez relax a bit. You'll live longer.

 

I see what you mean by key free agents

 

Peralta is unproven in the majors and yes, his ERA is high this year. He had some real bad starts but he's starting to clean it up. I think over his last 6-7 starts he's looked very good. I think a lot of people see him in our rotation next year. I hope he gets his chance next year. And ok the worst case scenario for him could be worse than I put it. Ill change it and say "worst case scenario" is his ERA matches Wolf's of this year, mid 5's.

 

And related to Narveson, if they dont look to use him in our rotation next year it wouldn't bother me. Sign a Free agent pitcher to a 1yr deal.

[endaround]

Actually the WAR chart I was looking at gave Hart the same WAR rating for both RF and 1st, so they must already calculate the position adjustment as they play. Which leads to the surprising result that this year RFs are out performing 1st basemen. Actually as I recall that isn't that unusual, because as a group the RF tend to be more athletic and will often collectively outperform the plodding sluggers. Presumably due to things like defense, and base running. Which suggests that at best the position switch is somewhat nuetral from a value perspective.

 

No they adjust Hart's WAR depending on how many PAs he has at each position. They don't readjust when looking at leaderboards. You need to look at wOBA. And looking at cardinal placement misses the fact that the best 1B is a much better hitter than the best RFer.

 

Also a lot of the RFers showing up really aren't RFers like Mike Trumbo

[igor67]

I'll grant you the misplaced RFers, but having the relative talent levels of the best player at each position is actually not useful at all. We are comparing Hart to the field of possibilities not an individual player. His relative value at either position is still highly similar. Based on the misplaced RFers I'd say it's a toss-up at this point and really depends on how you rate his defense at each position. If you go by pure eyeball it's probably Hart at first in a slam dunk. The data suggests he isn't that good, certainly better than Fielder, but nothing above average, while he tended to grade out in RF better than arm chair observations would indicate. I'd still lean toward Hart at first partly because I've thought Gamel's athleticism and arm profiled better in RF at this point.

[slappzilla]

Why do any of you feel that Peralta or Thornburg or Rogers will be better than Narveson next year? I don't get the complete write off of him.

 

haha..... I love that some people take what is said on this forum so seriously.

Whatever you do, don't elude to the Brewers not contending next year.

[Team Hoyt]

We know about what we are going to get out of Narveson. One year removed from surgery I can't see much upside out of him. The young guys have a higher ceiling. Give them a shot.

[WV Brew]

Brewers offense is a problem. Brewers BA .251 LgBA (league batting average if playing in the same parks).266

Brewers OBP .321 LgOBP .333, Brewers SLG .425 LgSLG .424

So the only thing the Brewers are even league average is slugging. They are also below average in OPS. I think the Brewers are .500 against lefties empasizing that their hitters are too right-handed. How do you improve this? Having Segura as the SS may be one help. He does look like a decent OBP guy. Gamel would help against right handed pitching. It's not only about the pitching.

[monty57]

Why do any of you feel that Peralta or Thornburg or Rogers will be better than Narveson next year? I don't get the complete write off of him.

 

He had a pretty significant shoulder surgery which may or may not allow him to pitch next year, if ever again. That's compounded by the fact that he will be hitting arbitration for the first time next year, so if the Brewers decide to offer him arby, he'll probably make $1MM or so. The Brewers may have to make a decision on him before they ever get a chance to see if he can pitch. If that's the case, I doubt Melvin will risk it, especially with the prospects finally making it to the major league roster.

 

If they want him back, I'd guess the Brewers will non-tender him and offer a minor league deal like they did with Capuano. If they decide to go this route, Narveson will become a free agent and will have the option to sign with the Brewers on the minor league deal, or test the market to see if there's a team willing to take a flier on him on a major league deal.

 

It's sad for Narveson, as I liked him and thought he could be a relatively inexpensive veteran #4/5 for the next couple of seasons, but unfortunately that's life in baseball. By "law" of the CBA, the Brewers don't owe him anything.

[thebruce44]

haha..... I love that some people take what is said on this forum so seriously.

Whatever you do, don't elude to the Brewers not contending next year.

 

Knock it off. You didn't elude, you definitively told. His situation is nothing like yours.

 

Is it really that hard for you to understand that, or are you just going to continue to make snide remarks since none of us homers can handle how real you keep it?

[monty57]

C'mon guys, it's not that big of a deal.

 

Except that it's "allude," not "elude." Elude means to escape, flee, avoid, dodge. As in "the next time we see a topic in which we're going to beat a dead horse, we should elude the topic."

 

I don't think the Brewers are likely to contend next year either. That I say they aren't likely to do something instead of saying they aren't going to do something is semantics, and they say you shouldn't argue semantics :-)

[thebruce44]

Ah, I know allude vs. elude. This darn head cold is making me stupider and grumpy.

[chad25]

So we have all talked about trading Hart and Ramirez. What about making trades to pick up bullpen guys? I know we could go after guys like Mike Adams, Grant Balfour, or Brandon League. But Im curious as to think what we would have to trade to the Phillies to get 2 of the following players: Relievers Phillipe Aumont and Justin De Fratus, and 3B Maikel Franco.

 

I dont think they want to move either of them because they have had recent Bullpen struggles as well but they are looking to get cheaper at CF and 3B. Could we send them Logan Schafer and Taylor Green? Maybe throw in a lower level arm too. They would have more money to sign some decent relievers.

 

Although Im not sure how valuable other teams view both Schafer and Green.....

[monty57]

I was just trying to add a little humor into things. I enjoy posts by both of you guys, so I hate to see things get derailed by "non-baseball stuff."