2013: Which way would you go?

[monty57]

I jumped on the "trade Ramirez" train when the Dodgers offered Lee and Gould for Jed Lowrie and Gould for Carlos Lee. When they were rebuffed, they showed interest in Ramirez. If we could have received the "Jed Lowrie package," or even a little less, I would've jumped at it. At the same time, we had hopes of getting Olt for Greinke, and that would've been a perfect scenario. I think Hanley Ramirez wearing out his welcome in Miami probably brought down the offer for Aramis, and of course we couldn't pry Olt from Texas.

 

I'm not for giving away Aramis purely for salary relief, but we do need to be careful with big contracts, even when the player lives up to it. All we have to do is look at Philly and the salary dumps they're doing... they gave Pence away for little return and seem to have really considered giving Cliff Lee up for nothing just to get out of the contract. This is Cliff Lee, a very good pitcher who really wants to play in Philly. I was scared at the thought of signing Greinke when we still had all the other contracts on the books. If Greinke had accepted, I think we would have had to get rid of someone's contract, or we would be quickly in Philly's shoes trying to give players away. He didn't extend, so we're not in quite as tight of a financial spot as we could've been.

 

Since we didn't trade Ramirez when it looks like we had a shot, I don't see him being traded. It's not the worst thing in the world, as he is a talented player. I don't see him playing up to what's left of the contract, I don't see him as being tradeable in another year and his contract does limit other moves we could make over the next few seasons, but he should help the team over the next couple of years as we (hopefully) bring a group of young guys into the majors.

 

Hart is just a different situation. With his production and contract, he should be very tradeable and we have in-house options playing for league minimum. That is exactly the scenario when you trade a player. Trading him my mean the Brewers take a small step backwards in 2013, but it should help them take big strides forward in the future as the player(s) we trade him for start to help out at the MLB level. Aoki will be fine in RF, Gamel should be fine at 1B and we'll have another talented, cost-controlled player for the future.

 

I think that assuming Marcum is healthy, signing him to a one-year deal is a no-brainer if he is willing to sign a cheap deal to regain his value in an attempt to get a better, longer deal in 2014. Marcum would help out a young staff in 2013 and we could flip him at the deadline for some good prospects. He'd give us production, return in trade, and a chance to let someone like Thornburg get more time in AAA before getting called up. This gives three "young" guys (probably Estrada, Fiers, Peralta) a chance at the rotation from Opening Day and another a chance at half a season in the rotation while the current A and AA guys get a season closer to the big leagues. By 2014, we'll know if Fiers is for real, Peralta and Thornburg will no longer be rookies, and guys like Nelson, Jungman, Bradley, etc will be MLB-ready, potentially even allowing us to look at trading someone like Estrada. Wouldn't that be nice to be in a position of too much good, young starting pitching? If we flip Hart for a #2/3 SP, we could get there even sooner.

 

Loe, Veras, Parra are probably giving Melvin ulcers. The Brewers should be in a situation where the bullpen is in good shape going into 2013, but instead, it will probably have to be completely rebuilt. I love the Kottaras trade, because we traded from a position of depth and added a much needed bullpen arm for the next six seasons. I just wish we would've traded Morgan before the season started, when he probably had some trade value. I'd be surprised if we don't non-tender him this offseason. I highly doubt Melvin will go into 2013 with Axford and the 2012 Nashville bullpen, so we are going to spend money on the bullpen in 2013, I just hope it's on one-year deals, as some of our current minor league starters will end up in future Brewer bullpens.

 

Someone mentioned earlier that I was crazy or delusional or something for mentioning moving Braun to RF in the future, but here's my scenario. Play Braun, Gomez/Schafer, Aoki next year allowing guys like Khris Davis to play a full season at AAA. If Davis continues to hit (he's been pretty amazing in the minors), then we could look at moving Aoki next year. If not, I'm fine with extending Aoki if he's willing to sign a cheap deal (he's around $1MM now, so extending him at $3-4MM a season for a few years would be a steal). However, if Davis continues to rake, and the Brewers don't think he has the arm to play RF, then we could look (in 2014) at moving Braun to RF. Braun has the arm to play RF, and he would be moving up the defensive spectrum. I can't imagine that Braun would be upset at going to RF, as long as it was a permanent move, and not something where he'd be bouncing between LF and RF. He'd probably be upset if the Brewers tried moving him to 1B as some have mentioned (I don't think that's a good idea), but I would guess he'd be fine moving to RF. A future OF of Braun, Schafer, Kh Davis could put up good numbers and having two inexpensive guys during Braun's expensive years keeps the average OF salary pretty reasonable.

 

Sorry for the long post, but that's "which direction I'd go." Not blowing things up, but changing direction somewhat from the path we've travelled recently. We should be fun to watch in 2013, as we get to see some of the young players getting their feet wet, while still having a lot of good, MLB-proven talent on the roster. If everything fell perfectly, we could compete next year, but I don't think it's overly realistic to believe that our pitching staff will be quite ready to make the playoffs. However, we can "take advantage" of our situation by getting some good players from guys like Hart now and Marcum / Aoki next year, and I think we'll have a realistic shot at being a good team again as soon as 2014.

[faede]

And we still have some decent prospects in the pipeline with a good opportunity to contend in 2013.

Please expand on that.

 

"decent" is arguably a stretch. I'm sorry, but the Brewers farm system is still a bottom five system when compared to the rest of MLB. Fiers has been a great surprise, but I think the other arms in our system are still either overhyped, or too inexperienced to make any sort of impact next year. I'm all for giving them a shot in the rotation next year, but expecting them to perform at a level that would push the Brewers towards contention is highly unlikely. Let them work their bugs out in 2013, either in the bigs or AAA, and let's come out in 2014 or 2015 as a legit contender.

 

That's actually pretty easy.

(The ratings of the team farm clubs.. Keith Law, the brewers 24, BA: 26)

Additions since that time:

-Jean Segura is a top 50 prospect in baseball and he's only increased his status since he was obtained. That and only that raises the farm system significantly.

-Mike Fiers wasn't even on the prospect list and now he's sporting a sub 2 ERA in MLB action.

-Khris Davis wasn't getting much credit within the prospect lists as he was old for the system (lo/hi A) he was dominating in. He's subsequently got a 1.00+ OPS in both AA and AAA since then. He's back on the radar, significantly.

-Hunter Morris: Non-Prospect has transformed into the Southern League MVP.

-Jimmy Nelson is actually "buzzing" in the prospect circles now

-Hellweg and Pena are just cherries on top!

 

BA's top 10 before:

1. Wily Peralta, rhp

2. Taylor Jungmann, rhp

3. Jed Bradley, lhp

4. Tyler Thornburg, rhp

5. Scooter Gennett, 2b

6. Logan Schafer, of

7. Cody Scarpetta, rhp

8. Taylor Green, 3b/2b

9. Jorge Lopez, rhp

10. Jimmy Nelson, rhp

 

Mine, now:

1. Jean Segura ss

2. Mike Fiers rhp

3. Wily Peralta rhp

4. Tyler Thornburg, rhp

5. Johnny Hellweg, rhp

6. Taylor Jungmann, rhp

7. Jimmy Nelson, rhp

8. Khris Davis, lf/rf

9. Hunter Morris, 1b

10. Scooter Gennett, 2b

 

And that doesn't even sniff at the questionable calls of leaving off guys like Ariel Pena, Hiram Burgos and Mark Rogers. I'm not sure how the argument that the farm isn't significantly improved with production and the Greinke trade is possible. I'd put us middle of the pack, maybe above average at this point.

 

But the best part is.. our weak spots are our prospect strengths.

Harts last season next year: Khris Davis is demanding his chance at this point.

The Black Hole of SS: Jean Segura

1B question mark: Hunter Morris is definitely stepping up.

 

Starting/Relief Pitching: Just have 3 or 4 of Thornburg, Nelson, Fiers, Burgos, Rogers (who I think would make an EXCELLENT relief guy), Peralta, Hellweg, Pena and you're built up pretty solidly. I don't disagree that there might be bumps in the road in 2013, but, if the stars align right.....

 

As much as I hope I am wrong, I don't see the Brewers contending in 2013, which is why I want to trade Ramirez. That last year of this contract is $16M. I go off the mindset, if you're not going to contend, build for the future.

 

I can't argue with this strategy in a vacuum. But let me try to belabor one point. 2013 would be a question mark, for sure. Even if everything works out. Blowing it up and getting prepped for a 2014 run is certainly viable and likely much more possible than 2013. But.. and it's a big one.. one of the biggest aids in the resurgence of the Brewers is financial viability. Without some playoff magic the last few years, 3mil at the ballpark doesn't seem viable.

 

And, in my opinion, we NEED the money to compete. 2014 has great potential, but, our gate receipts get crushed by a season and a half of bad baseball, I think we'll be in trouble financially when we go to fill a gap that we need money to do so. I may be panicking a bit on this, but, it seems like each year we're close, the brand grows and the money comes in. I don't want to lose that to the more bandwagon fans and go backwards in salary significantly.

 

Anyone agree on this?

[slappzilla]

I agree that after you laid it out, the Brewer farm system isn't as bad as I thought, but I still don't think it's better than average at this point. I still come from the school of thinking 1 out of 10 prospects actually pan out. I'd say 2 or 3 out of your list of top 10 will pan out, tops. I'm not saying that to be negative, it's just law of the land.

[monty57]

I'm no expert on these things, but to me the Brewer system is strong on guys who could be average/good MLB players, but lacks the stars who could be above average/great MLB players. I think the Greinke trade helped fix that, and I think a Hart trade could really make the future brighter.

 

The good/average guys will really help fill in around the "core players." Someone like Segura can become a "core player" we will continue to build around. Keep a malleable core, so as core players age and become expensive they are replaced with younger, cheaper players. Some, like Braun, may even retire a Brewer after a long career, but at some point even he will no longer be a Brewer. Keep the cycle flowing.

[slappzilla]

^ this I agree with 100%.

 

Problem is, average/good MLB players don't turn teams into playoff teams.

 

Brewers became contenders again when the farm produced all stars like Prince, Braun, Weeks, Gallardo, Hart, etc. A bunch of average/good core players will keep them at the .500 mark.

[chad25]

faede-

 

I completely agree with your last statements. we cant afford to just scrap one year (2013). We will lose so many of the average fans who dont follow baseball as religiously as people on this forum do. I think thats one thing that gets overlooked and I sometimes do it to. Just the other day I was talking with my friends about sports, and I brought up the brewers. And people responded with "Cant wait for football season, lets just talk about the Packers." Im still in brewer mode and will always be, but im a diehard fan and will watch them and go to the games no matter what. This is a football state and the brewers cant afford to have one bad year where ticket sales decline and the money shrinks. Every year, from here on out has to be "The Year" and with Braun and the other veteran position players in our lineup, it can be. Next year we'll go through our bumps with the starting rotation but if our bullpen gets revamped and becomes above-average, along with our strong lineup, we'll be in contention. I want them to keep Hart and Ramirez, and see where our team is at midseason next year.

[TooLiveBrew]

I agree that after you laid it out, the Brewer farm system isn't as bad as I thought, but I still don't think it's better than average at this point. I still come from the school of thinking 1 out of 10 prospects actually pan out. I'd say 2 or 3 out of your list of top 10 will pan out, tops. I'm not saying that to be negative, it's just law of the land.

Going from bottom of the league to roughly mid-table in just one season is something Brewers fans should be absolutely psyched about. It also underscores (Fiers, Kh Davis, Morris) that relying on stats to determine future potential is a very inaccurate method, yet it's the one used by the vast majority of fans.

[slappzilla]

You can't put Davis and Morris in the same category as Fiers. Not yet at least.

 

I agree though that going from bottom of the league to roughly mid-table in just one season is something Brewers fans should be absolutely psyched about. My issue is the Brewers don't seem to have any future all stars in their system. Out of the top 100 prospects, how many do you think the Brewers would have in the top 50? One, maybe two (segura, Thornburg or Peralta), and how many do you think they'd have in the top 100?

 

That's why I'm saying the future is hardly solid. Lots of core, average players and maybe a couple of good players like monty said.

 

Hope is that next year some of these guys really step it up and move into top 50 status or even top 20 status. There's no hurry to rush anyone up, seriously. I wouldn't even bring Segura up till June 1st at the earliest next year.

[monty57]

we cant afford to just scrap one year (2013).

 

I'd argue that trading Hart for a Segura-type prospect and going with Aoki in RF and Gamel at 1B does not constitute "scrapping a year."

 

We will lose so many of the average fans who dont follow baseball as religiously as people on this forum do. I think thats one thing that gets overlooked and I sometimes do it to. Just the other day I was talking with my friends about sports, and I brought up the brewers. And people responded with "Cant wait for football season, lets just talk about the Packers." Im still in brewer mode and will always be, but im a diehard fan and will watch them and go to the games no matter what. This is a football state and the brewers cant afford to have one bad year where ticket sales decline and the money shrinks.

 

I think your arguement shows that we are probably going to see a ticket sale decrease next year no matter what. I don't think they're suddenly going to show up simply because we don't trade Hart and/or Ramirez.

 

Every year, from here on out has to be "The Year" and with Braun and the other veteran position players in our lineup, it can be.

 

Even most big-market teams can only keep this up for so long before the strategy collapses. A long-term strategy in Milwaukee pretty much has to center on always having good, young, cost-controlled players making their way onto the MLB roster every year. With a lot of pre-arby/arby guys on the team, we can afford more big contracts. By occasionally trading some former "core" players as they age, get expensive and we have younger, less expensive replacements in-house, we can replenish the system and constantly have a malleable "core" group of All-Star caliber players surrounded by average/good players.

 

Next year we'll go through our bumps with the starting rotation but if our bullpen gets revamped and becomes above-average, along with our strong lineup, we'll be in contention. I want them to keep Hart and Ramirez, and see where our team is at midseason next year.

 

If a lot of "ifs" happen, we could be a playoff team. The biggest "if" is whether a starting rotation consisting of Gallardo, Estrada, Fiers, Peralta, Rogers, Thornburg, etc along with a completely rebuilt bullpen will make it to the playoffs. I think there is talent in those pitchers, but expecting all of them to play to a level that would get us to the playoffs is probably expecting too much. Then you have the fact that Hart is a free agent after the season. He probably has decent trade value now, as the receiving team would get the comp pick when he leaves, but his value will be a lot lower by next trade deadline. I don't think it's worth the risk of losing out on a potential future "core" player in trade on the hopes that the 2013 rotation will take us to the playoffs.

 

What I believe will get the fan interest back up is playing exciting baseball and the knowledge that the players are young and getting better (like we had when Weeks, Fielder, etc we're emerging onto the Milwaukee scene). That gives fans hope that the future is brighter.

[slappzilla]

^ agree with all of that, especially the first part. Gamel and Aoki is the way to go and if the Brewers can get a Segura type prospect for Hart you have to do it I think.

[paul253]

Every year, from here on out has to be "The Year" and with Braun and the other veteran position players in our lineup, it can be.

 

I could not disagree more. You don't make moves because fans want you to. You make moves to help build a successful franchise year in year out. 2012 was built as a another "the year" and look how it turned out. No offense to people like your friend, the "when does football start" crowd, but I find them very obnoxious. They obviously aren't true Brewers fans and they apparently have no idea how baseball works. It's not like football. You can "win now" a lot quicker in football than you can in baseball. And the economics are night and day.

 

The only way a franchise like Milwaukee can compete year in year out in not to sign big time free agents and trade all of your prospects for established players, but to build from within and make wise financial decisions.

 

The Brewers have a golden opportunity right now to obtain those young stars and start a run of successful years. They have a ton of pitching coming up, have a few stars (Braun, Lucroy) and some solid role players on their way (Kh Davis, Gennett, Schafer). I hate to say this but Corey Hart is not the difference between playoffs and no playoffs next season. So why not finally maximize someone's value and trade him while you can? By 2014, you'll still have Braun, Weeks, Lucroy and Ramirez. Davis will probably be ready. As will Schafer and Segura. Gennett will be close. Morris will be close. Gindl will be close, if not ready. Pitching wise, choose between Peralta, Thornburg, Jungmann, Burgos, Nelson, Hellweg, Pena, Fiers, Rogers, and Gallardo. Add whoever you can get for Hart (ideally a third basemen or another pitcher) and whoever you draft next season with your top 10 pick, plus a key free agent signing or two and this is the making of a very successful franchise. You don't have to overspend or trade away the farm just so the "when does football start" crowd pays attention. Win a few years in a row and you'll get their attention.

[faede]

I'd totally agree with Hart. He's a really good player, arguably he's as under-appreciated as a .800+OPS guy can be. But, we're a lot more prepared to deal with Hart leaving (CF/RF: Gomez, Aoki, Khrush, Schafer; 1B: Gamel, Morris). I doubt we'd have a significant drop off in Wins if we traded Hart during the offseason to maximize value.

 

Ramirez, on the other hand, is a different story. He's likely a 5+ish WAR guy right now. And that assumes you have an "average" guy to take his place... which we don't.

 

If we could trade Hart and get enough pitching to make a decent deal for a 3+ish WAR 3b, I could get on the trade Ramirez bandwagon a lot easier.

 

 

 

The problem with Weeks/Fielder/Braun type guys is that we don't pick in the top 10 very much lately. I'd love to see another wave of awesomeness show up that was the Fielder/Weeks/Rogers/Braun 4 year swing (picks 7/2/5/5). And we may crap out enough this season to get a top 10. But, I think it's pretty tough to get franchise guys out of the later rounds unless you get really lucky.

 

And I don't think it's a good idea to do the Marlins thing, win then tank win then tank. We have an opportunity to keep a solid fanbase if we can just keep winning the next few years. I'm not sure we'd be able to handle a full on tank like the Astros are doing right now.

[logan82]

Going from bottom of the league to roughly mid-table in just one season is something Brewers fans should be absolutely psyched about. It also underscores (Fiers, Kh Davis, Morris) that relying on stats to determine future potential is a very inaccurate method, yet it's the one used by the vast majority of fans.

I believe none of this even takes into account anybody drafted this year and if I am not mistaken we got 1-3 high ceiling guys. Not saying we should really count those guys before they play in the minors for us but the farm is definitely heading in the right direction.

We will lose so many of the average fans who dont follow baseball as religiously as people on this forum do. I think thats one thing that gets overlooked and I sometimes do it to.

I wouldn't say overlooked just that making decisions short term based on attendance is a losing strategy.

[faede]

Going from bottom of the league to roughly mid-table in just one season is something Brewers fans should be absolutely psyched about. It also underscores (Fiers, Kh Davis, Morris) that relying on stats to determine future potential is a very inaccurate method, yet it's the one used by the vast majority of fans.

I believe none of this even takes into account anybody drafted this year and if I am not mistaken we got 1-3 high ceiling guys. Not saying we should really count those guys before they play in the minors for us but the farm is definitely heading in the right direction.

We will lose so many of the average fans who dont follow baseball as religiously as people on this forum do. I think thats one thing that gets overlooked and I sometimes do it to.

I wouldn't say overlooked just that making decisions short term based on attendance is a losing strategy.

 

Very good point. Haniger looked decent before he got injured. Coulter is doing great (hitting) at AZL, not so much fielding. Tyrone Taylor was way better than I expected (very limited sample size) and Victor Roache is a complete unknown with uber power.

[TooLiveBrew]

You can't put Davis and Morris in the same category as Fiers. Not yet at least.

Right, but up until recently, you 'couldn't put' Fiers in that category either. The message being that, at some point, we as fans have to get away from the notion that unless a player already has earned a certain label, we have to wait until he has to suggest he might actually be a pretty good player.

 

I agree though that going from bottom of the league to roughly mid-table in just one season is something Brewers fans should be absolutely psyched about. My issue is the Brewers don't seem to have any future all stars in their system. Out of the top 100 prospects, how many do you think the Brewers would have in the top 50? One, maybe two (segura, Thornburg or Peralta), and how many do you think they'd have in the top 100?

Let me start by saying I think part of what I'm arguing against is the Top 50™ or Top 100™ labels being the way young talent should be measured. I like those rankings probably as much as anyone, but guys like Shaun Marcum & Mike Fiers really put into context just how hard it is even for prospect experts to give us a good idea of talent rankings. You probably have to extend that Top [X] count to roughly 200 players in order to not miss giving the 'Top Prospect' label to all guys who have a shot to be good big-leaguers, like Fiers & Marcum again as examples.

 

Wily Peralta (#56), Taylor Jungmann (#70) and Jed Bradley (#71) all made Baseball America's pre-2012 top 100, and that has changed precisely nothing about how well they project going forward. Jungmann may or may not have performed well enough this season to stick in the pre-'13 list, and you can bet Bradley will be gone. So what does that tell us about BA's ability to rank players aside from that the art form is a very volatile one?

 

I think (aside from Segura, #55 pre-'12), you can look for any of the following names to wind up in Top 100 lists: Hellweg, Pena, Thornburg, Morris, Kh Davis, Nelson & Peralta (assuming he's not seriously injured). Not a ton of guys, but all of them are at AA or AAA, which is very relevant to me since I'm hoping to see the Brewers contend in 2014 & beyond... basically the duration of Braun's contract. I keep seeing comments from prospect-watchers about Nelson & how insanely high his ceiling is. He probably won't be in BA's Top 100 for 2013 either, but it wouldn't surprise me. I'll admit Davis & Morris might also be longer shots due to various reasons, but I genuinely believe both of them also have enough talent to warrant being Top 100™. And it's the talent I'm concerned about, not what they've done, statistically, most recently.

[TooLiveBrew]

I believe none of this even takes into account anybody drafted this year and if I am not mistaken we got 1-3 high ceiling guys. Not saying we should really count those guys before they play in the minors for us but the farm is definitely heading in the right direction.

Really good point as well. There are tangible reasons to be excited about each of the first four players drafted (Coulter, Roache, Haniger, Taylor), and it's not like the next tier of guys is exactly chopped liver, either.

 

I wouldn't say overlooked just that making decisions short term based on attendance is a losing strategy.

Absolutely. The bandwagoners that would hop off have already hopped off imo. I was trying to talk about the Brewers having a solid MiLB system with an acquaintance of mine yesterday, and he cut me off to quip, "I'm already watching the minor leaguers -- they're the 2012 Brewers!". I would categorize him as very savvy when it comes to baseball, and even he isn't interested in a Brewers team that has been junk this season. What puts butts in the seats is winning, and planning for one season at a time doesn't lead to long-term winning.

[monty57]

And I don't think it's a good idea to do the Marlins thing, win then tank win then tank. We have an opportunity to keep a solid fanbase if we can just keep winning the next few years. I'm not sure we'd be able to handle a full on tank like the Astros are doing right now.

 

What leads to a "full on tank like the Astros" is continually extending past-their-prime players in an effort to either (A) win now while {insert player name} is still in their prime and/or (B) keep fans in the seats by keeping the home-grown players, no matter what the cost.

 

Doing this got the Astros one last playoff push, and then they were so old and expensive that they needed to dump everyone and start over. They are now bearing the fruits of trying to "keep a window open." This is what many of us are trying to avoid. I don't know why people keep thinking it's what we're proposing.

 

Trading Hart and starting Gamel at 1B, Aoki in RF is not a Marlins-style blow up. It's simply trading a good player when we have in-house replacements in order to get a good young player or two who can help for a long time. Look how much simply trading Greinke should help our future with Segura, Hellweg and Pena. Trading Hart might cause a step back in 2013, but should help us have a nice group of talented, inexpensive players for the foreseeable future. One or two moves can make a big difference in the direction of the team.

[faede]

And I don't think it's a good idea to do the Marlins thing, win then tank win then tank. We have an opportunity to keep a solid fanbase if we can just keep winning the next few years. I'm not sure we'd be able to handle a full on tank like the Astros are doing right now.

 

What leads to a "full on tank like the Astros" is continually extending past-their-prime players in an effort to either (A) win now while {insert player name} is still in their prime and/or (B) keep fans in the seats by keeping the home-grown players, no matter what the cost.

 

Doing this got the Astros one last playoff push, and then they were so old and expensive that they needed to dump everyone and start over. They are now bearing the fruits of trying to "keep a window open." This is what many of us are trying to avoid. I don't know why people keep thinking it's what we're proposing.

 

Trading Hart and starting Gamel at 1B, Aoki in RF is not a Marlins-style blow up. It's simply trading a good player when we have in-house replacements in order to get a good young player or two who can help for a long time. Look how much simply trading Greinke should help our future with Segura, Hellweg and Pena. Trading Hart might cause a step back in 2013, but should help us have a nice group of talented, inexpensive players for the foreseeable future. One or two moves can make a big difference in the direction of the team.

 

You are preaching to the choir, my friend. I agree on Hart, it's Ramirez I have a tough time swallowing.

[clancyphile]

And I don't think it's a good idea to do the Marlins thing, win then tank win then tank. We have an opportunity to keep a solid fanbase if we can just keep winning the next few years. I'm not sure we'd be able to handle a full on tank like the Astros are doing right now.

 

What leads to a "full on tank like the Astros" is continually extending past-their-prime players in an effort to either (A) win now while {insert player name} is still in their prime and/or (B) keep fans in the seats by keeping the home-grown players, no matter what the cost.

 

Doing this got the Astros one last playoff push, and then they were so old and expensive that they needed to dump everyone and start over. They are now bearing the fruits of trying to "keep a window open." This is what many of us are trying to avoid. I don't know why people keep thinking it's what we're proposing.

 

Trading Hart and starting Gamel at 1B, Aoki in RF is not a Marlins-style blow up. It's simply trading a good player when we have in-house replacements in order to get a good young player or two who can help for a long time. Look how much simply trading Greinke should help our future with Segura, Hellweg and Pena. Trading Hart might cause a step back in 2013, but should help us have a nice group of talented, inexpensive players for the foreseeable future. One or two moves can make a big difference in the direction of the team.

 

You are preaching to the choir, my friend. I agree on Hart, it's Ramirez I have a tough time swallowing.

 

With A-Ram, it's a 2-year, $26 million contract that hinders flexibility. I'd rather move Ramirez and try to get another batch of prospects. Look for the help at third base, ideally, but maybe get someone at shortstop or elsewhere. Maybe get some extra pitchers, and then try to package pitchers for a third baseman that doesn't cost a lot.

 

Trading him is not a blow-up. Try this, for example:

Brewers get:

3B/1B/OF Chris Davis

IF Wilson Betemit

 

Orioles get:

3B Aramis Martinez

 

That's a 1B and a 3B, and that is a LOT less than A-Ram is paid.

[chad25]

Every year, from here on out has to be "The Year" and with Braun and the other veteran position players in our lineup, it can be.

 

I could not disagree more. You don't make moves because fans want you to. You make moves to help build a successful franchise year in year out. 2012 was built as a another "the year" and look how it turned out. No offense to people like your friend, the "when does football start" crowd, but I find them very obnoxious. They obviously aren't true Brewers fans and they apparently have no idea how baseball works. It's not like football. You can "win now" a lot quicker in football than you can in baseball. And the economics are night and day.

 

The only way a franchise like Milwaukee can compete year in year out in not to sign big time free agents and trade all of your prospects for established players, but to build from within and make wise financial decisions.

 

The Brewers have a golden opportunity right now to obtain those young stars and start a run of successful years. They have a ton of pitching coming up, have a few stars (Braun, Lucroy) and some solid role players on their way (Kh Davis, Gennett, Schafer). I hate to say this but Corey Hart is not the difference between playoffs and no playoffs next season. So why not finally maximize someone's value and trade him while you can? By 2014, you'll still have Braun, Weeks, Lucroy and Ramirez. Davis will probably be ready. As will Schafer and Segura. Gennett will be close. Morris will be close. Gindl will be close, if not ready. Pitching wise, choose between Peralta, Thornburg, Jungmann, Burgos, Nelson, Hellweg, Pena, Fiers, Rogers, and Gallardo. Add whoever you can get for Hart (ideally a third basemen or another pitcher) and whoever you draft next season with your top 10 pick, plus a key free agent signing or two and this is the making of a very successful franchise. You don't have to overspend or trade away the farm just so the "when does football start" crowd pays attention. Win a few years in a row and you'll get their attention.

 

So wait you just said that the way we can compete is that you dont sign big time free agents, but you build your franchise from within. Then in the next paragraph you said in 2014 we should add a "key free agent signing or two" and this is a succesful franchise. So your arguing against what your saying a successful franchise like us should be. maybe i dont understand what your saying as it pertains to free agent signing.

 

IMO next years team is a competitive team already. Our lineup is on pace to score more runs than last years team, and thats even with Weeks throwing in a dud. If our lineup stays the same next year and we produce like this year (very possible), we'll be fine. Now look at pitching: The odds that our bullpen next year is as bad as THIS years bullpen are very slim. But our starting pitching will be a tad worse than this years.

 

Gallardo will give you the ups and the downs but still give you a mid 3 ERA. Marcum (if they bring him back) the same, maybe a little higher. Narveson, Fiers, and Peralta are all questions. But at worst case scenarios they have an average ERA of 4-4.2 . So just say our team ERA is (at worst) 4 or a little lower. about NL average.

 

Yes those are all "if's" and possibilities that will happen next year but so are the ideas people announce on here. You dont know that the player/players the brewers would get back in return for trading Hart and/or Ramirez will become anything in the bigs. Gamel is a question too and im a huge mat gamel fan. I just like knowing what we have, minimizing the risk, which is why Id want to keep hart and then let him go. Take the Comp pick. Gamel is cheaper but money really isnt an issue right now for us with Greinke, K-Rod, Marcum, and Wolf becoming FA's. Being a small market team means you have to take risks, but I like minimizing my risks I take.

 

You know in all honesty the brewers will probably trade Hart and/or Ramirez this offseason. Wouldn't surprise me. But its taking a risk on young talent at the corners, hoping they produce at MLB average levels. I don't like going into a season knowing/thinking its a rebuild year when I've seen what this team can do.

[slappzilla]

I do not want to pay Aramis what he is owed in 2014 ($16M) and the installments after 2014. I don't mind what he's owed next year ($10M) but I also don't see the Brewers contending next year, that's why I'm all for trading him. After next year the Brewers may not be able to shed him just for his contract even. Deal him now while you can get something.

[igor67]

Trading him now doesn't exempt us from the installments, you seem to keep thinking that those installments are add ons to his last seasons salary. I don't know how the contract language is worded, but given the vast discount he is playing at this year, and to a lesser extent next year those deferred payments are most likely tied to this year and/or next years salary and were done to fit into the relatively tight budget this year (think K-rod).

[slappzilla]

I just assumed whoever he gets traded too, they pick up those installments. Why wouldn't they?

 

Either way, the installments aren't that bad. The $16M in 2014 is.

[faede]

I don't think your going to get much of a return in prospects if you go that route.

 

3/36 is a great deal for Aramis and would be a very tradable asset. 1/20 (16+4 add on) is not a great deal and would require the prospect package to watered down significantly!!

[slappzilla]

That's why I am all for trading him now vs waiting. Better return.

 

and honestly, I have no issue just shedding his contract.