2013: Which way would you go?

[Funketown]

I see no reason to move Braun to 1B yet, but I'd definitely consider it in the future as a measure to increase his durability. I don't have enough faith in any of Schaefer, Gindl, Prince, or Ke. Davis to step into an outfield role next year and provide much. For the most part, those guys have been average to below average at AAA this season, and at this point I expect I'm not the only one who views these guys as 4th OF types rather than everyday MLB players.

 

For me, a lot of this depends on whether the club thinks Jean Segura will be ready to be an everyday starter for the Brewers next season and whether the club can bring back a healthy Shaun Marcum on a short-term deal. If they can do both of those things, they should have a decent chance at being competitive next season. A lineup of Aoki-Weeks-Braun-Ramirez-Hart-Lucroy-Gomez-Segura-P is pretty solid, but even with Marcum a rotation of Gallardo-Marcum-Fiers-Estrada-???/FA concerns me.

[slappzilla]

Green, Gindl, Schafer, Prince and Kentrail Davis aren't exactly lighting it up in the minors. I'm not sure how a bunch of guys who put up .750 or less OPS in the minors is not considered a poor option when compared to Aramis (and Hart), who consistently puts up 800+ OPS against major league pitching.

 

Jean Segura, Khris Davis and possibly Hunter Morris are the only ones within the minors who are consistently proving they are ready for a major league position. I seriously don't understand why an argument for a youth movement is not taking into consideration that quite a few of those youth movement pieces aren't even proving their worth against lesser competition.

I was trying to say the same thing the other day.

 

and even while Jean Segura, Khris Davis and possibly Hunter Morris are doing well in the minors, I still think they all need at least half a year of AAA before the jump. Yes, I know teams skip AAA all the time and there's not that big of a difference according to a lot of people, but I want to see all of them keep it up for half a year at the AAA level before a bigs call up. There's honestly no hurry for any of them right now sans maybe Segura.

[monty57]

You are not just trading Gallardo though. You are trading Gallardo and Braun's prime and you aren't getting compensated for Braun's prime.

 

As to ARam and his contract, look at the position FAs this year. Name one who is a better player outside of Hamilton (who has a bevy of his own issues).

 

agreed. I for one dont really mind ARam's contract, sure its backloaded a lot, but even if he "only" reproduces this years level, still okay in my eyes. gives the brewres another two seasons to groom the farms for a potential replacement, rather than scrambling, AGAIN, to fill the hot corner.

 

If players never regressed in their mid-30s, we'd see a lot more late-30s/early 40s players in the league, and a lot less early 20s players. At the time of the Ramirez signing, everyone who was against the signing said he'd be good this year. It's the second and really the third years of the deal we were/are worried about. He will be two years older and a lot more expensive, neither of which is a good thing. He's already went from hitting a lot of HR to hitting a lot doubles. Where will he be in two years?

[faede]

I was trying to say the same thing the other day.

 

and even while Jean Segura, Khris Davis and possibly Hunter Morris are doing well in the minors, I still think they all need at least half a year of AAA before the jump. Yes, I know teams skip AAA all the time and there's not that big of a difference according to a lot of people, but I want to see all of them keep it up for half a year at the AAA level before a bigs call up. There's honestly no hurry for any of them right now sans maybe Segura.

 

Totally agree. Jean Segura maybe, for need. Though I could see a stop-gap to begin 2013 while he finishes up in AAA.

 

 

It just seems to me that prospects should be making the club put them on the roster. Earn your position, don't have it given to you.

[torts]

I was trying to say the same thing the other day.

 

and even while Jean Segura, Khris Davis and possibly Hunter Morris are doing well in the minors, I still think they all need at least half a year of AAA before the jump. Yes, I know teams skip AAA all the time and there's not that big of a difference according to a lot of people, but I want to see all of them keep it up for half a year at the AAA level before a bigs call up. There's honestly no hurry for any of them right now sans maybe Segura.

 

Totally agree. Jean Segura maybe, for need. Though I could see a stop-gap to begin 2013 while he finishes up in AAA.

 

 

It just seems to me that prospects should be making the club put them on the roster. Earn your position, don't have it given to you.

 

I dont think trying to bring back Gonzalez to SS for one year is a bad idea, im sure he'd be willing to do that, and it would give Segura another year to develop before taking over in 2014, possibly.

[Dollarbill13]

If players never regressed in their mid-30s, we'd see a lot more late-30s/early 40s players in the league, and a lot less early 20s players. At the time of the Ramirez signing, everyone who was against the signing said he'd be good this year. It's the second and really the third years of the deal we were/are worried about. He will be two years older and a lot more expensive, neither of which is a good thing. He's already went from hitting a lot of HR to hitting a lot doubles. Where will he be in two years?

 

I don't think we can assume he'll maintain this year's pace of about 5 WAR. If he puts up 4 WAR in 2013 and 3 in 2014, that would still exceed the dollars left on his contract (although the dollars won't line up with the production on a year by year basis). I still think it comes down to whether you think we can be competitors in 2013. If you don't think so, his production next year won't really have that much impact so he (and we) would be better off producing it on a more competitive team. Personally, I don't think we are that far off in 2013. We're not nearly as bad as our record suggests and that is coming in a year where just about everything has gone wrong. We probably shouldn't go drop $25M on Grienke, but just make a few tweaks here and there to improve the team. I'd listen to offers on Hart & Ramirez and if we could get a good group of prospects, then go for it. If not, then keep them and give it a shot in 2013.

[pogokat]

I'd try to bring Gonzalez back just to avoid having a terrible bench again next year...seriously, izturis? I almost died when they signed him, and the worst hitter in the history of baseball has gotten substancial playing time.

 

Hart's not worth near what most here belief...trading him will not reload the farm system...it would be amazing if we could get a single player of Segura's caliber by trading Hart.

 

Aram is a terrific player, but he's in the same situation---besides, when you trade guys you just signed to multi-year deals, other players stop wanting to sign for you.

 

I can see the Brewers going the other way---we have guys like Green, Gennet, and Schafer who probably won't ever get a real shot to start with the Brewers...I can see a pile of our aging prospects being traded for a veteran sp, or some bullpen help.

[502 to Right]

Mat Gamel is not playing 3B at the major league level. Please, let's remove that from the table of discussion.

[paul253]

I seriously don't understand why an argument for a youth movement is not taking into consideration that quite a few of those youth movement pieces aren't even proving their worth against lesser competition.

Last season Taylor Green hit .336 with 22 home runs. Logan Schafer hit .302 with a .368 OBP and plus defense. How were they rewarded? Schafer was shipped back to the minors. Green, whom we had a golden opportunity to give playing time to, was instead used as the 25th man on the roster and saw time only when Gamel got hurt (and even then it was only a few days a week). And not to mention he was told to play a position he never played before. I think it's unfair to suggest they haven't performed well enough to be given a legitimate shot on the major league roster. In my opinion, neither has anything left to prove in the minors. I don't see how platooning Schafer next season instead of Morgan is really going to be that big of a dropoff.

[slappzilla]

says who?

 

He could if he got the reps. He's done it before.

[Dollarbill13]

Green was misused this year, no doubt. I wish they would have given him at least a couple starts per week at 3B and had Ramirez play 1B once or twice a week to give Green a little more opportunity. I don't really have a problem with not giving him a starting spot as his .336 average was heavily driven by a very high .360 BABIP.

 

I don't think sending Schafer back to AAA was really a punishment, either. He had less than 200 ABs in AAA last year, which was his first run at it. He's doing okay this year but his plate discipline seems to have declined. There's probably no sense in keeping Morgan next year so Schafer should be a pretty solid 4th outfielder (I can't see them not having Gomez as the starter next year, right or wrong).

[MJLiverock]

Last year was Schafer's first AB's above A ball, split roughly 200 ABs at AA and 200 at AAA and he still didn't play a full season due to being injured again. I have no problem with him being held in AAA for a full season this year. I think it makes sense to platoon him with Gomez next year and let Morgan go but I don't think the Brewers have been onerous in holding him back.

 

I don't think Green rates as high in the organization's eyes as he does for some here. The team wasn't going to go into this season with playoff hopes tied to the last year with Marcum and Greinke on the staff and rely on Green and Gamel at the corners after losing Prince. Green was given more plate appearances in April May June than Ishikawa and didn't do anything with his chances to force the team to play him more. His numbers have fallen off in AAA thus far this year, not horrible but down. His future is probably a bench player backing up the corners and 2nd base in the infield.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I don't see Ramirez being traded over this offseason - if the Brewers aren't contending in 2013, I'd expect him to be dealt at the trade deadline with the Brewers eating some of his salary in order to get a quality prospect in return. If he's hitting, there will be a demand for him. I get that age projections don't set up well for ARam's 3rd year, but the going rate for his current level of production is practically 20 Mil per season whether justified or not. In reality the Brewers have him at a discount for 2012-2013.

 

I also think there's too much overvaluing of non-blue chip Brewer prospects, especially when trying to compare minor league production to perceived major league roster garbage (Izturis, Ransom, etc.). It's a bit out of hand to be talking about having the reigning NL MVP make a position switch so Khris Davis has a position to play. Green, Schafer, Davis, Gindl, etc. are not blue chip prospects - They all could become major league regulars, but the odds are much better for 75% of these type of players becoming AAAA-types if they can't fill specific roster spots effectively (i.e., utility backup IF, 4th OF/pH). Those are tough roles for younger players w/out MLB experience to fill when they're used to playing everyday in the minors.

 

I hope Green gets a decent shot to make the MLB team out of spring training next year because he could be very valuable as a utility IF/pH option if he can get comfortable in that role. As for OF options, alot depends on what's going to happen with the Hart/Gamel situation at 1st. If one of those players ends up in the OF mix for 2013, there's really only room on the roster for one of Schafer/Davis/Gindl, and regular playing time would probably be an issue.

[fondybrewfan]

With Gomez's improvement against RHP this year; I would not be suprised in the least if he is handed the fulltime CF job next year. If he continues to play well the rest of the year; it might actually even be justified. You absolutely want a backup LH CF just in case it doesn't work out though. I think the goal should be to get Rickie back at the top of the lineup along with Segura at somepoint in 2013 so Gomez can move down around the 7 spot or so.

 

I know a good couple months aginst RH isn't enough to erase Gomez's failaure throughout his career against RH; but amazingly the guy is still only 26 years old and perhaps he has just figured things out. I am willing to give him the rest of the year and if that trend continues I would be OK giving him the full time job next year. Just have a backup plan in place

[502 to Right]

Taylor Green has a .739 OPS this year in AAA and .645 in MLB. So I disagree with the suggestion that his not being given a starting role (or at least major role) with the 2012 Brewers was a misstep by Doug Melvin. As stated upthread, his 2011 AAA numbers were driven by an abnormally high BABIP.

[TooLiveBrew]

One season's stats on any player doesn't tell you anything more than what they've done. Especially when it comes to MiLB stats; scouting reports are far more useful.

 

I don't think Green's some worldbeater, but I do think he can hit RHP at the big league level enough to be a useful utility IF.

[chad25]

There's only 4 players I would trade......

 

Maldonado-He might have value to a team that wants a young MLB ready catcher. I think we sign an older backup catcher for a 1 yr deal with club option for 2nd and after he's gone we can see where Garfield, Coulter, and even Zarraga (might be enough to be a backup catcher) are at in the system

Gamel-I think the brewers are set with Hart at 1B

Green-He shouldn't be a backup and he be given a chance to start somewhere

Gindl-How has this guy fallen off the radar? One bad year and we forget that he has shown production through every level. he has to have value to someone bc he's 23 and MLB ready

 

Teams that might want them:

 

Tampa Bay Rays- could use Maldonado

Colorado Rockies- could use Gamel, they need a young MLB ready 1B

New York Mets- could use Gindl

Los Angeles Dodgers- could use Green, Gamel, Gindl and Maldonado. They've got a lot of contracts coming off the books and it will depend on who they resign. But they want to get young and could use these guys.

 

But I would trade Maldonado and Gamel to the Miami Marlins. They need a young catcher and a 1B because they just traded Gaby Sanchez and Dobbs isn't a solution. They need cheap young talent. I would then trade Green and Gindl to the Philadelphia Phillies. They need cheap solutions because they have most of their money invested in Utley, Howard, Hamels, Halladay, and Lee. They just traded away 2 OF's and will need a 4th OF. They also lose Wigginton and Polanco and could use Green to cover 3B and backup 1B.

 

What you could get back in return for these guys, I dont know. but probably young (A-ball talent) players.

[xisxisxis]

What you could get back in return for these guys, I dont know. but probably young (A-ball talent) players.

 

So you want to trade young players that have (or show the ability to have) success at the major league level for A-ball talent. Do you know the percentage of A-ball talent players that NEVER make it to seeing the majors let alone have some success? You have almost no chance of getting talent back that will reach the same level of success as the players you already have, not to mention adding salary for replacements. Thank god Dougie doesn't adhere to this approach.

 

 

Gamel-I think the brewers are set with Hart at 1B

 

Hart is only signed through 2013. Gamel is Brewers property for 5 more years, 2 of which are cost controlled. Long-term we need to see if there is a role for Gamel on this team, because if he approaches the success he has had in the minors he will be more valuable than Hart moving forward. If not, we move on. Hart may cost too much to resign and as a small market team the last thing we need to do is get attached to players that don't provide cost effective production.

[paul253]

Taylor Green has a .739 OPS this year in AAA and .645 in MLB. So I disagree with the suggestion that his not being given a starting role (or at least major role) with the 2012 Brewers was a misstep by Doug Melvin

 

Even calling Green's playing time sporadic this year would a stretch. I don't see how you can fairly use his major league stats against him this year given how few at bats he got. It's the same debate we've had with Mat Gamel. He has little if anything to prove in the minors but he's never been given an extended period of at bats in Milwaukee.

 

That being said, I don't think he'll ever have a successful career in Milwaukee. His two primary positions are both filled for the next two seasons and I doubt Melvin moves either Ramirez or Weeks. I think the best we can hope for him is a utility player. Too bad. You'd think a two time organizational player of the year could do better.

[DHonks]

As usual I agree with pogokat.

 

Additionally, why do people want to move Ramirez? We've waited for what, 15 years to have an adequate 3b. Now we have an above average 3b and the only knock on him is his contract. I guess some people will never be happy. I honestly don't think we're that far from contending next year. And while Gamel may not be a starter at 3b, I realize he has almost no value in a trade. I'd hate to release his potential. So perhaps either he plays RF or he becomes our utility player that amasses 50 starts between RF, LF (Braun always has random nagging injuries), 1b, 3b, and DH. That's probably a low-ball projection, but in a season with 250 at bats, we'd be finally giving him a chance and we'd be dramatically improving our bench. I also would offer Gonzalez a 1 year deal for around $3 million. I'd tell him he's the starter to open the season, but if Segura becomes ready, the Brewers could give him the choice to be a top utility guy (and defensive replacement) or be traded. If Segura isn't ready in 2013, then he's the guy all season.

[DHonks]

paul, why does that impact Green's future with the Brewers? I guess I don't get the mindset that just because a player is in AAA and is blocked, that we must move him. There's nothing wrong with letting Green remain in AAA, especially since he's had so little success in pro-ball. I loved Green as a prospect and kept rooting for him, but let's not forget that in the last 4 years he's had only perhaps 4-5 good months (even last year he struggled in April). Yes most of that was due to injury. But I can't compare him to Gamel since Mat never struggled in the minors.

[TooLiveBrew]

Additionally, why do people want to move Ramirez? We've waited for what, 15 years to have an adequate 3b. Now we have an above average 3b and the only knock on him is his contract. I guess some people will never be happy.

 

There are multiple threads with multiple detailed explanations as to why. Yet "some people" choose instead to be willfully ignorant of alternative team-building ideas & dismiss them as just being based in the fact that "some people" will complain about anything. I mean, why should people even bother to try to explain why they might think the Brewers would make a solid long-term move in trading Ramirez if the exact people who ask why just seem to plug their ears?

[faede]

There are multiple threads with multiple detailed explanations as to why. Yet "some people" choose instead to be willfully ignorant of alternative team-building ideas & dismiss them as just being based in the fact that "some people" will complain about anything. I mean, why should people even bother to try to explain why they might think the Brewers would make a solid long-term move in trading Ramirez if the exact people who ask why just seem to plug their ears?

 

That's a bit rough, isn't it? I don't think there is ignorance there. I think it's a difference of opinion.

 

I happen to disagree with the idea of moving Ramirez as well. I understand the thought of moving him for youth, but, just think that's the wrong direction. Ryan Braun is a once in a LONG time talent and there is a whole bunch of really good pitching prospects and a decent amount of free agent money that is usable as a resource for a successful 2013 season.

 

Aramis is exceeding his value this year (likely will end up as a 16-17mil value via fangraphs unless something explodes) and its certainly not a stretch to think he won't maintain a pretty solid value over the next two seasons as well. Personally, I find the risk of a dramatic drop off in 2013 to be pretty low in comparison to the risk of not being able to find an adequate replacement for Aramis i we end up trading him for other pieces. Maybe that risk goes up in 2014, but for now, i'm not overly concerned. As well, if next year stinks, he's probably a pretty potent trade chip at the deadline.

 

Both directions are viable, I (and apparently others) think that the "bird in the hand" direction is better for us in 2013 for sure and not altogether too worrisome for years beyond that.

[Baldkin]

Great article by Tango the other day:

 

I looked at every draft from 1985-2002. That’s 18 drafts. I considered a draft pick a success if he was able to get a total of three career WAR by the time he was 29. That standard is pretty low, but, I still only got 499 players. That’s an average of only 28 players per draft.

 

So, 28 players per DRAFT become positive MLB players. That is amazing. Less than 1 player per round. Trading for promising AA and AAA players, or even low ceiling AA and AAA players would seem the way to go.

[MNBrew]

It's worth remembering that all it takes is an injury to one of the "position-blocking" players for Taylor Green or Mat Gamel (if he starts on the bench) or Travis Ishikawa (hope not!) or whomever on the bench to become the everyday starter.

 

That's why it's important to have a 4th OF and 1st reserve IF that would be basically starting-caliber players, not just bodies in a uniform. That's why we're suffering through Ransom & Izturis at SS -- b/c Alex Gonzalez was a solid Plan A as the starter, but there wasn't a good Plan B if he got hurt, which he did.

 

If Ramirez or Hart gets hurt for any lengthy period of time, that opens the door for Green or whomever to get major playing time (assuming Gamel's in the mix in RF). I sincerely hope Green's getting MLB experience every day next year rather than being in AAA for another whole year until someone's injury creates an opening even if it means more bench time. I want him for what he can be as a starter and as a solid backup at 3 IF positions if he's not starting.

 

Goodness knows, Taylor Green has a far more consistently sound approach at the plate than Cody Ransom! And I find it odd that suddenly this year, everyone's seemingly kinda writing him off when last year at this time, everyone was clamoring for him to be brought up to the majors -- and he proved himself well enough to be included on the post-season roster and given meaningful bench AB in some games. Green has the potential to be a LH version of Jeff Cirillo, or a Mark Loretta with a little more pop -- guys who do lots of little things right, make the team better, and generally do little if anything to hurt the team. I hope Green's given a good chance to stick because I think he's very much capable of becoming a player of those guys' caliber, and I'd take a guy like that every day of the week!