2013: Which way would you go?

[TheCrew07]

Ohh I'm certain Melvin and Mark A have a plan, but I don't think winning as many games as possible each season is much of a long-term plan.

[Dollarbill13]

To be fair, Ramirez's only bad monthly OPS this season was April. He finished with an .848 OPS in May.

 

 

And to be fair, it was really only the first two weeks of April that he was really bad. His OPS from April 18-30 was around 1.000. The Brewers were 5-5 before April 18th.

[Dollarbill13]

What is his long term plan then? Every year he pieces together a roster that he thinks can compete and every year it seems to be at the expense of one or two young players. We were supposed to compete this season because all we did was replace Fielder and Yuni with Aramis and Gamel. But it's been an absolute disaster. Meanwhile, Taylor Green still hasn't really gotten a chance. Neither has Logan Schafer. So I guess when I say "make a plan" I really mean "make a plan that includes more than one year at a time".

 

 

We are 2nd in the NL in runs scored. I don't think the offense is to blame at all. I would have loved to see Taylor Green get a shot at 3rd this year but an .850 OPS like Ramirez has put up would have been pretty lofty expectations. Green's numbers in AAA last year were outstanding but a lot of that had to do with his .360 BABIP. His previous two seasons BABIPs were in the .270s. I don't necessary blame him for not feeling comfortable giving the starting job to Green. Last year was Schafer's first full year above A+ ball. I don't see the problem with giving him a full year at AAA to see what he's got before giving him an OF position, when we already have 12 cheap CFs on our team.

 

 

And I still think people are overestimating how close we are to competing next season. The rotation probably won't be as good. Greinke is gone and will probably be replaced by either Peralta or Rogers. Marcum may be back but as of now they've shown no interest in re-signing him. He'll also have to be replaced. As will Wolf. So what are they going to do? Sign another average starting pitcher to a multi-year $20 million contract? That goes back to my question whether they have a long term plan or just continue to throw together a team they think can make the playoffs. And then there is the bullpen. The ENTIRE bullpen needs to be revamped. That's a lot easier said than done.

 

 

Our starting rotation has a 3.97 ERA this year compared to a 3.78 ERA last year, with the primary difference being Randy Wolf. Losing Greinke hurts our rotation but losing Wolf's 5.45 ERA and replacing him with one of our young guys should help the cause.

 

The biggest issue is obviously the bullpen. Last year they were awesome and this year they are terrible. I didn't expect Axford and Krod to maintain a sub 2 ERA but I don't think anyone foresaw this kind of collapse. The good news is that if any group of players can be replaced for a very low price, it's the bullpen. If we go out and spend a bunch of money on a proven closer, I'll be pretty mad. I'd much rather see them take the shotgun approach and throw a bunch against the wall during spring training and see what sticks. Unfortunately, there is a lot of variability in reliever performance and they pitch many of the high leverage innings. So a large change in performance can happen without any real cause and affect a disproportionate amount of games.

[paul253]

Ohh I'm certain Melvin and Mark A have a plan, but I don't think winning as many games as possible each season is much of a long-term plan.

If the goal is to win as many games this season, why not just trade Jungmann and Peralta for some quality bullpen arms? That would have won us some more games. Then next season when we lose Greinke we can trade Bradley and Thornburg for a quality starting pitcher. That would probably help us win some more games next season. Then we can overspend to re-sign Corey Hart after that. That may help us win 3 or 4 extra games in 2014. But eventually you run out of pieces to trade and money to sign free agents. This year shows what happens when that occurs. You lose a player to injury and all of a sudden Cesar Izturis is your starting shortstop. Then another player gets hurt and Travis Ishikawa is your starting first basemen. Then your season is shot.

 

I know that was meant as sarcasm but it reminds me of that poster who was complaining that we trade Greinke because we won't win as many games this season. Obviously you missed my point. When you delicately piece together a team with no room for error, like they did this year, things can go south awfully quickly. They had zero depth outside of Aoki. And outside of Estrada there were no depth in the rotation. We're lucky Fiers turned out as well as he did because the season could be much worse then it is. So instead of delicately piecing together teams one year at a time how about strengthening the teams from within? Taylor Green isn't going to get any better sitting on the bench. Logan Schafer isn't going to get any better in Nashville. At some point you have to invest in your own guys. And at some point you need to move on from the older expensive players and see what you have in the younger, cheaper ones.

 

As good as the Brewers have been recently, they've only made the playoffs twice in five seasons. And honestly in those other three seasons, including this one, they haven't even been close. While that's certainly better than we're used to it's not exactly the sustained long term success I'd like to see. I can't exactly complain all that much about this year's team because I actually thought they'd be a lot better than this. But if anything it shows what can happen when everything doesn't go exactly as planned.

[igor67]

The even run differential, but 8 games under .500 also should be factored in when judging the talent level of the team. Given his history and performance at the time of injury it's pretty easy to picture this years team comfortably out scoring last year's if Gonzalez stays healthy. And that is with a lot more down years than up years from players to point too. I do think there is room for improvement, and just running the same guys out is a mistake, but with that line-up the Brewers could easily have a respectable chance at getting to the playoffs next year without 'gutting the farm' or 'sacrificing the future'. Those aren't mutually exclusive like wisecracking pundits would like you to believe.

[clancyphile]

The even run differential, but 8 games under .500 also should be factored in when judging the talent level of the team. Given his history and performance at the time of injury it's pretty easy to picture this years team comfortably out scoring last year's if Gonzalez stays healthy. And that is with a lot more down years than up years from players to point too. I do think there is room for improvement, and just running the same guys out is a mistake, but with that line-up the Brewers could easily have a respectable chance at getting to the playoffs next year without 'gutting the farm' or 'sacrificing the future'. Those aren't mutually exclusive like wisecracking pundits would like you to believe.

 

I can see the point, but what to be done?

 

I think step one has to be letting Wolf, K-Rod, and Loe go.

 

The next step has to be getting a good deal for A-Ram - say, a middle-infield prospect, an outfielder, and a high-ceiling arm. The following step is seeing if Hart will extend beyond 2013 (I thought he was signed until 2015). If he will, he handles first. If not, he gets dealt, preferable for a high-ceiling arm and a third baseman. That should free a bunch of money up.

 

Re-sign Marcum to a two-year/$15 million deal (why go one year, if he will come cheap - I say, go for two).

 

Sign Greinke to a six-year, $120 million deal to solidify the rotation (Gallardo, Greinke, Marcum, Fiers, and one of the rookies will be OK for 2013).

 

Then, start to see what the young players do on the field.

[502 to Right]

Ramirez has been good this year, and there are other teams that will glady take his contract. But no team is going to give up good prospects and pay his full salary. So you are either going to get salary relief or a prospect but not both. Given the choice, I'd rather keep him in Milwaukee.

[logan82]

I would pay half his contract(maybe more) to get good prospect(s) back. Mostly because I don't think he will help much in 2014 and beyond.

[Dollarbill13]

I bet it wouldn't take paying half his contract. We could pay $6M which would leave the trading partner with 2/24 left on the deal. Much better than what you could probably get in free agency and pretty likely (IMO) to create surplus value for whoever gets him.

[logan82]

You are probably right, I was just saying I would pay to get a good player back. The money isn't the issue in my opinion, although having Ramirez' contract off the books would be nice, I am more interested in having a younger player who will be with us longer.

[clancyphile]

Ramirez has been good this year, and there are other teams that will glady take his contract. But no team is going to give up good prospects and pay his full salary. So you are either going to get salary relief or a prospect but not both. Given the choice, I'd rather keep him in Milwaukee.

 

I'd rather, at this point, go with Gamel at third, and have the Ramirez deal (plus a prospect or two), and use the money from dumping A-Ram, Wolf, and K-Rod to make a run to bring Greinke back.

[FVBrewerFan]

I think sometimes we get caught up in semantics having this discussion. Terms like "blow it up" "go young" and "rebuild" mean different things to different people. For example, call it whatever you want but the pitching staff will be vastly different in 2013. Very likely only 3 or 4 pitchers that were on the roster opening day 2012 will be back. To me, that's blowing it up.

 

Another thing I notice is many posters seem to equate a young pitching staff with giving up, or at least destined for a 90 loss+ season. I think you can have your cake and eat it too. Pirates, Nationals, As, Orioles, Dodgers, White Sox all went young to one degree or another. Many of those teams are seeing success even more quickly than they probaly planned for.

 

This could be the 2013 or 2014 Brewers. Don't spend money on SP. Go with the young guns, there's plenty there in quality and quantity. I wouldn't trade all 3 of Weeks, Hart, and Ramirez. But I would look at any deals to move one, maybe two if it brought back really good bullpen arms that are pre-arby or otherwise low-priced. No question the pen needs major improvement. I just want quality at a low price. Not easy, but it can be done.

 

So yes, along with Yo go with Fiers, Thornburg, Peralta, Burgos, Rodgers. Estrada if you need him. Fill a couple pen positions with capable arms from AA/AA. There are few real options there. Get Gamel back in the mix. Let the Nashville OFs compete in Spring Training for a spot. Just DON'T SPEND MONEY.

 

Now you have a rotation gaining experience and innings, controlled for 6 years. With another wave on the way. Best of all you have money in the bank to spend later when you need that one piece to get over the top. And there are still prospects who can be dealt at the trade deadline if it comes to that.

 

Blow money on another Looper/Wolf type or the temptation to blow money on a closer is the last thing they need to do right now.

[adambr2]

I'm a little disappointed that we didn't approach Ramirez given the current state of the team.

 

Assuming that we could have gotten someone to take on his entire salary, to me it comes down to simple logic. Since Ramirez' contract was backloaded, he earned only $6M this year and has effectively a 2 year, $30 dollar deal left after the season.

 

Would you pay that for Ramirez right now if he was a free agent? Probably not. So, why would you agree to pay that if given an out when he's already on the team?

[adambr2]

Come to think of it, that's an interesting idea. Would that be a sustainable GM strategy? (Sign FA's to backloaded deals with the intent on trading to only take the hit of the better frontloaded part of the deal.)

 

Example, sign Marcum to a 4 year, $44 deal, but have the first year be at $7M and the second year at $9M and if possible, trade him then and thus get him for a 2 year, $16M dollar deal while the team you deal to gets the 2 year, $28M dollar deal.

 

If you did it correctly, you could get guys like Ramirez on the cheap for short-term commitments.

 

Of course, chances are that some of these FA's aren't going to work out and won't be tradeable, at least not without eating a lot of salary, so you'll be stuck with a lot of bloated contracts at the end of deals.

[FVBrewerFan]

 

Assuming that we could have gotten someone to take on his entire salary, to me it comes down to simple logic. Since Ramirez' contract was backloaded, he earned only $6M this year and has effectively a 2 year, $30 dollar deal left after the season.

 

Would you pay that for Ramirez right now if he was a free agent? Probably not. So, why would you agree to pay that if given an out when he's already on the team?

 

Agree completely, exactly the type of contract this team doesn't need right now. But you said the key word- assuming. Were there any reports that a team was willing to trade for him and pick up his entire salary?

[adambr2]

 

Assuming that we could have gotten someone to take on his entire salary, to me it comes down to simple logic. Since Ramirez' contract was backloaded, he earned only $6M this year and has effectively a 2 year, $30 dollar deal left after the season.

 

Would you pay that for Ramirez right now if he was a free agent? Probably not. So, why would you agree to pay that if given an out when he's already on the team?

 

Agree completely, exactly the type of contract this team doesn't need right now. But you said the key word- assuming. Were there any reports that a team was willing to trade for him and pick up his entire salary?

 

Agreed -- that's the kicker, we don't know that for sure, at least not that I've heard.

 

Salary relief is great, but if they're going to ask for $12M to cover the rest of his contract and toss us a low level prospect, forget about it.

[splitterpfj]

I see very little chance of Ramirez being dealt this off-season. From outside the organization, you have his contract to consider, and from inside the organization, there's no obvious replacement coming through the system - which is why he got this contract in the first place.

 

Knowing the front office, they'll play to win next year, but if they do decide to deal a veteran for younger players, I doubt it will be Aramis.

 

If the Brewers do decide to deal a veteran, I would say Hart is the most likely, and I'm not at all convinced the team is ready to make that move. With Gamel returning, and Morris approaching, Hart is a guy the team may be able to replace internally.

 

If it was my call, and I was going for a bold move, I'd shop Gallardo this winter. He's good, and I want him around, but nothing brings more young talent than a young pitcher, who's already signed. IF I thought the Brewers could get the sort of return Oakland got for Gio Gonzalez, which was Tommy Milone plus three more players...I'd probably make that move.

[DHonks]

If we had a bunch of pitchers that were overvalued and about to get expensive, then the A's approach would work. Look at their history and how they've allowed pitchers to be a revolving door in their plans despite developing studs such as Mulder, Zito, Hudson, Harang, Blanton, Street, and they guys you mentioned. Since the Brewers guys under contract are position players and likely to play well, I'm not inclined to deal them like I would pitchers that are always one pitch away from the DL

[endaround]

You are not just trading Gallardo though. You are trading Gallardo and Braun's prime and you aren't getting compensated for Braun's prime.

 

As to ARam and his contract, look at the position FAs this year. Name one who is a better player outside of Hamilton (who has a bevy of his own issues).

[torts]

You are not just trading Gallardo though. You are trading Gallardo and Braun's prime and you aren't getting compensated for Braun's prime.

 

As to ARam and his contract, look at the position FAs this year. Name one who is a better player outside of Hamilton (who has a bevy of his own issues).

 

agreed. I for one dont really mind ARam's contract, sure its backloaded a lot, but even if he "only" reproduces this years level, still okay in my eyes. gives the brewres another two seasons to groom the farms for a potential replacement, rather than scrambling, AGAIN, to fill the hot corner.

[clancyphile]

I see very little chance of Ramirez being dealt this off-season. From outside the organization, you have his contract to consider, and from inside the organization, there's no obvious replacement coming through the system - which is why he got this contract in the first place.

 

Knowing the front office, they'll play to win next year, but if they do decide to deal a veteran for younger players, I doubt it will be Aramis.

 

I can think of two replacements offhand: Mat Gamel and Taylor Green. Neither would be poor options, especially if the team commits to one or the other as the starter, and gets them regular at-bats. With all the young prospects coming up in the outfield (Schaefer, Gindl, John Prince, and the Davises), maybe it's time to think about moving Braun to another position to fill a hole that might be opened up if A-Ram and Hart are traded.

[torts]

I see very little chance of Ramirez being dealt this off-season. From outside the organization, you have his contract to consider, and from inside the organization, there's no obvious replacement coming through the system - which is why he got this contract in the first place.

 

Knowing the front office, they'll play to win next year, but if they do decide to deal a veteran for younger players, I doubt it will be Aramis.

 

I can think of two replacements offhand: Mat Gamel and Taylor Green. Neither would be poor options, especially if the team commits to one or the other as the starter, and gets them regular at-bats. With all the young prospects coming up in the outfield (Schaefer, Gindl, John Prince, and the Davises), maybe it's time to think about moving Braun to another position to fill a hole that might be opened up if A-Ram and Hart are traded.

 

Braun was beyond horrible at 3B.

[mothershipconnection]

The only place you could reasonably move Braun is 1B. As he has come along nicely in left, it'd be best to put this idea on the shelf until he's getting old and slow.

[monty57]

You could also move Braun to RF, which may happen if Khris Davis continues to rake in the minors. Braun has the arm for RF, while I don't think Davis does.

 

As to 3B, assuming the Dodgers were serious and we could've gotten a good, young pitcher, I think we should've traded him when we had the "out" this season. Since we didn't trade him then, I don't think we're going to trade Aramis this offseason, which to me means he will be a Brewer through his contract, maybe trading him mid-2014 if he's still hitting two years from now.

 

Hart is the obvious player of value to trade, because we have in-house options and he's going to be a free agent at the end of the season.

 

Guys like Loe, Veras, Parra and Morgan will probably just get non-tendered. They'll each get paid around $3MM next year. The bullpen guys aren't worth that, and Morgan can be replaced in-house with Schafer playing for league minimum. Decent bullpen arms aren't cheap, so I could see us paying a couple guys $4-5MM each... I just hope it's for one-year deals, as in a couple of years some of our minor league arms will end up in the MLB pen.

 

SS is a bit of a question, as the team may want to wait until mid-season to bring Segura up for service time reasons. If they do this, then do we pay someone $5MM or so to man the position, or will we go with Ransom?

[faede]

I see very little chance of Ramirez being dealt this off-season. From outside the organization, you have his contract to consider, and from inside the organization, there's no obvious replacement coming through the system - which is why he got this contract in the first place.

 

Knowing the front office, they'll play to win next year, but if they do decide to deal a veteran for younger players, I doubt it will be Aramis.

 

I can think of two replacements offhand: Mat Gamel and Taylor Green. Neither would be poor options, especially if the team commits to one or the other as the starter, and gets them regular at-bats. With all the young prospects coming up in the outfield (Schaefer, Gindl, John Prince, and the Davises), maybe it's time to think about moving Braun to another position to fill a hole that might be opened up if A-Ram and Hart are traded.

 

Green, Gindl, Schafer, Prince and Kentrail Davis aren't exactly lighting it up in the minors. I'm not sure how a bunch of guys who put up .750 or less OPS in the minors is not considered a poor option when compared to Aramis (and Hart), who consistently puts up 800+ OPS against major league pitching.

 

Jean Segura, Khris Davis and possibly Hunter Morris are the only ones within the minors who are consistently proving they are ready for a major league position. I seriously don't understand why an argument for a youth movement is not taking into consideration that quite a few of those youth movement pieces aren't even proving their worth against lesser competition.