2013: Which way would you go?

[faede]

I dont disagree with the strategy and the A's did it well. I simply don't think it's the right one to employ.

 

I think there is another wave of prospects coming. Those prospects can be plugged in or traded but if three or four of Segura, Morris, Davis, Burgos, Fiers, Thornburg (cant believe i forgot him in my last post), Peralta, Rogers, Nelson, Hellweg, Pena find success (or are used to buy success, ala the greinke/marcum trades), another window is not long off and 2013 is not outside of the realm of possibility by any means.

[RWeeksFan23]

I don't see why we can't be a solid team next year, frankly I don't understand the people not just in this thread but in this forum in general that think we should be building for 2014 and beyond.

 

Our offense is already set for next season, and especially with Gamel coming back, the offense looks to be strong. We do need a top of the rotation starter, but there's a decent amount of 2s and 3s in free agency, no reason we can't sign one of them as well as a quality reliever. (And expect Axford to improve next season)

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't see why we can't be a solid team next year, frankly I don't understand the people not just in this thread but in this forum in general that think we should be building for 2014 and beyond.

 

Our offense is already set for next season, and especially with Gamel coming back, the offense looks to be strong. We do need a top of the rotation starter, but there's a decent amount of 2s and 3s in free agency, no reason we can't sign one of them as well as a quality reliever. (And expect Axford to improve next season)

The reason many are focused on seasons beyond 2013 is that dealing just two players -- Hart & Ramirez -- could set up the Brewers to contend for not only 2014, but for a good window from 2014 through at least 2020.

 

Yes, the Brewers could punt on the future and go All-In™ for 2013 by signing an expensive FA #2-caliber pitcher, but I'd rather see them be patient & make moves that build for a long(er) window of contention & help to build organizational depth. It's not just about contending in 2014, it's about building something that lasts longer than a season or a couple of seasons.

 

Can the Brewers be a "solid" team next year? Absolutely. But what's at issue here, imo, is 'can the Brewers develop their organization into one that has a long window to seriously contend?' If the Brewers continue to just plan year-to-year like they have been since at least the 2008 season, look for the Cubs to eventually build to more successful results than the Brewers while some Brewers fans thump their chests about how the Brewers didn't go into a 'full rebuild'.

[ELCABALLO45]

The A's are currently 4.5 back of the division, are are leading the Wild Card race. It's August 2nd.

 

To say they are "not contenders" is one of the strangest posts I have seen on here before.

[clancyphile]

I think a longer window is possible, but the Brewer's don't need a fire sale now.

 

My thoughts:

1. Let Wolf, K-Rod, Loe, and Morgan go. Deal A-Ram for some younger players/prospects (not a fire sale, but I want to free up the upcoming $26 million over 2013 and 2014 for a middle-infield prospect, a high-ceiling pitcher, and an outfielder or a corner infielder).

 

2. I'd use the money from them to make a run at bringing Greinke back (6 years, $120 million). Try to get Marcum back for two years at $8 million a year.

 

3. I'd keep Hart through 2013, and think about a deal in 2014 if Morris or someone else is ready at first. As for Weeks, I may want to look and see what emerges after 2013 (depending on what comes from an A-Ram trade).

 

Lineup:

RF: Aoki

2B: Weeks

LF: Braun

1B: Hart

C: Lucroy

3B: Gamel

CF: Gomez

SS: Seguira

[logan82]

I think I would keep everyone and take a shot at competing in 2013, including even doing as one year contract with Marcum.

 

I would let Morgan & K-Rod, Wolf & Loe go from this years team, but I think a lineup of

 

Aoki

Gomez

Braun

Ramirez

Hart

Weeks

Segura

Lucroy

 

can compete as long as the pitching is fairly strong...

 

I'd be concerned but optimistic about Gallardo-Fiers-Marcum-Rogers-Thornburg/Peralta/Estrada in my rotation. I would look to shore up the bullpen and try to add a starting pitcher over the winter.

 

I think Weeks can bounce back and in general I think the overall lineup is too talented to just blow them all up

I agree that the lineup will be strong but I think the pitching may be weaker next year than it was to start this year. Given that I think we should punt on 2013 to be stronger for longer after that. The turnaround shouldn't take long but I think we could give up one year for 2-4 years in the future.

 

I don't think this is a case where Braun and Gallardo will be starting to decline much after next year so in my opinion you don't consider trading them.

[slappzilla]

It's amazing to me how many people just want to just ship Hart out. The guy came up through the system. He has repeatdly stated how much he loves Milwaukee and the Brewers and would like to finish his career here.

Has he?

 

I like Hart, would like to keep him, but I seriously can't take the whole "he likes it here, wants to stay here" bit seriously. I didn't take it seriously with CC, Prince, or now Greinke either.

 

Then again, I didn't take it seriously with Braun and he proved me wrong.

 

Either way, in this day and age, I think more times that not, the $$$ determines the players future whereabouts more than anything. I think it's standard PR talk for the most part when a player says "i'd like to stay here, blah blah"

 

As far as 2013 goes, I think the Brewers need to land a couple of solid bullpen arms (yeah, I know, obvious), and need to sign a SP who can sustain an ERA under 4.

 

I'd be cool with Yo/Fiers/Marcum/Narv/whoever wins a spot out of spring between Peralta/Thornburg/Rogers for the rotation, and that would mean Marcum would be that below 4 ERA starter the Brewers sign.

 

A lot of you won't agree, but I think Gamel deserves another chance. I think he can be a .800 OPS guy, I really do. Either put him in the OF somewhere, or put him back at 1B and put Hart back in RF (although it seems RRR wants Hart to stay put at 1B). I don't remember for sure, but didn't Gamel play some OF in nashville for a stint? I maybe wrong.

 

Lineup

CF Aoki

SS Segura

LF Braun

3B Ramirez

1B/RF Hart

2B Weeks

RF/1B Gamel

C Lucroy

 

Bench

Green

Maldanado

Gomez

backup SS

new utility guy or Schafer (Schafer maybe not as they may want full time AB's for him)

 

 

Rotation

Yo

Fiers

Marcum

Narveson

Thornburg/Peralta/Rogers (whoever wins out in spring)

 

Bullpen

Axford

Henderson

Parra (yes, I am one of the few who still likes him. I know I am a minority)

Estrada

new guy

new guy

new guy

 

I may have added or forgot a bullpen spot or bench spot but you get the point.

 

Do I see the above team as a contender? I don't know. LOTS of xfactors. Probably too many to consider them a serious contender. One thing that is nice about the last rotation spot, let's say the Brewers go with Peralta and he stinks it up, they have other options to plug his rotation spot with guys like Thornburg or Rogers. Heck, Estrada could even fill the role or compete for it.

 

xfactors that could make or break team in 2013

Fiers - does he keep up what he's doing now or pull a Cal Eldred

Whoever gets 5th rotation spot

bullpen - no clue who will be there

Gamel - sink or swim

 

Either way, I am looking forward to 2013 and I do have optimism that they will contend. If I had to put my life on the line though....

[xisxisxis]

Has he?

 

Yes he's been on the Chuck and Wickett show often and every timehe mentions it.

 

 

A lot of you won't agree, but I think Gamel deserves another chance

 

Did you even read brewerfan before you started to post? believe it or not there was life before slapzilla and a significant contingency want Gamel to get a chance to prove he is an everyday player.

 

 

Rotation

.

.

.

Narveson

 

there's a snowballs chance in hell that Narveson is a starter next year. there's a slightly lower chance that he makes it in the bullpen. at his age and the type of injury he had there's a significant chance he will never be productive as a major leaguer again. Estrada has been outperforming 2/5ths of our rotation the last 2 years and I think needs to begiven a chance to start full-time. i am fine without a lefty in the rotation if our top 5 starters are the best we have.

[slappzilla]

Has he?

 

Yes he's been on the Chuck and Wickett show often and every timehe mentions it.

nice

 

Did you even read brewerfan before you started to post? believe it or not there was life before slapzilla and a significant contingency want Gamel to get a chance to prove he is an everyday player.

I'm just going off of what has been said in this thread. Believe it or not, it's tough for me to know what was said on this board before slappzilla, so if there was a significant contingency that want Gamel to get a chance to prove he is an everyday player, I did not know. Not many previous posts in this thread that pertain to next years team mentioned Gamel at all.

 

there's a snowballs chance in hell that Narveson is a starter next year. there's a slightly lower chance that he makes it in the bullpen. at his age and the type of injury he had there's a significant chance he will never be productive as a major leaguer again. Estrada has been outperforming 2/5ths of our rotation the last 2 years and I think needs to begiven a chance to start full-time. i am fine without a lefty in the rotation if our top 5 starters are the best we have.

He's a proven SP with who sustained an injury that plenty of other SP's have sustained in the past. Snowballs chance in hell seems like a bit of an exaggeration at the least.

[torts]

Brewers dont need a stellar rotation, they need a rotation that will limit the runs to 3-5 a game. they need a strong bullpen! the offensive firepower they have this year (and next!!!!) is good enough to make up any shortcomings they have in the rotation. they've scored 483 runs already this year, they're on pace for over 700 RS this season, right where they were last year, why on earth would you mess with that?

[Oldcity]

The Brewers' lineup isn't an area of concern if you're trying to win next year. They're on pace to outscore last year's team (how will we replace Prince!?!?). The problem is all with pitching, and I'm not concerned at all about next year's bullpen; the bullpen is the easiest part of a team to overhaul in one year.

 

No, the issue is all with the starting rotation. Without someone like Greinke at the top, the Brewers won't be a playoff contender. Therefore, their best bet is to let these young pitchers get their feet wet. That puts the Brewers in better position for 2014 and beyond.

 

And if that's the way they go, there are a few things that should happen. First, no more Randy Wolf-type, number 4 pitcher signings. Let the young guys pitch.

 

Trade Hart, Ramirez, and if he finishes the year strong, Weeks. By the time the young pitchers are any good, those players will be old/no longer under contract. Trade them now, and add some more pieces that you can pair with the next youth movement. If they target players around the AA level like in the Greinke trade, the rebuild shouldn't take very long. The team could be exciting as early as 2014 and be set up very well for the long run.

[faede]

Doesn't that make a big assumption though?

 

That none of our plethora of options next season will be ready? After Fiers this year, I think that's somewhat of a bad assumption.

 

Gallardo and Fiers for sure.

 

 

Peralta and Rogers we will get an idea of the rest of the season. Thornburg, Hellweg, Nelson, Burgos are all probably options for spots in the rotation and we'll get a better picture of them the rest of the season. Not to mention, Marcum on a 1 year 13mil deal might not be a bad thing if he proves healthy the rest of the season.

 

I think the assumption of finding a 800+ OPS 4+ WAR player to replace Aramis and a 800+OPS 3+WAR player to Replace Hart in 2014 is less likely then finding three decently above average starters from that pool of candidates we have. Not to mention, you could 1. still trade Hart at the Deadline and 2) Still trade Ramirez at the deadline or next offseason, should the need arise.

 

Both options are viable. I just think we have more options to find help in the rotation and less options to replace such truly excellent players in Hart and Ramirez.

[TheCrew07]

Brewers dont need a stellar rotation, they need a rotation that will limit the runs to 3-5 a game.

 

Apparently you missed 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011? Without Sabathia there's no way the Brewers make the playoffs in 2008 even though it was 1 and done. This team has floundered around mediocre with the exception of 2011 and that had everything to do with the starting rotation. There is no such thing as "good enough" pitching, Melvin tried that theory for years until trading for Marcum and Greinke.

 

In baseball pitching is king, and while anything can happen in a short series, in the longer 7 games series you'd better have starting pitching that matches up to the team you are facing or you're not going anywhere. Maybe if you have an incredible bullpen that you can trot out there for 6 innings like St. Louis did last year you can squeak by and win. But St. Louis is the only team I can recall off the top of my head that ever has won that way taking advantage of all the off days to keep those guys fresh.

 

If you're building a team the bullpen is absolutely the last place you should address, not the first. We have plenty of in house bullpen options moving forward, the question is if we'll have enough impact pitching to compete.

[markedman5]

I found this article on Corey after he signed the last extension.

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/428620-keeping-the-hart-at-home-brewers-extend-corey-harts-contract

[slappzilla]

Kind of hard to take too much stock into a 2yr old article.

 

pointless Hart mention - Hart lives in the same neighborhood as my folks. My kids have played with his kids at the playground when my mom was watching my kids. "very nice people" my mom said of Hart's wife and kids.

 

Like I said, I hope Hart stays with the Crew long term. I'd be all about a long term deal with Hart like what Braun got (not as much money obviously) but, again, I don't see how you can argue with the fact that in most cases the $$$ wins. Melvin should try and lockdown Hart now, because like ZG, if he hits the FA market, it's all but over.

[crewcrazy]

I just have a hard time thinking the team will truly contend with a rotation of Gallardo-Fiers-Estrada-Thornburg(?)-Peralta(?). Spending money on a FA starter likely won't do a lot of good and likely wouldn't be smart, looking at the secondary options. I'd probably offer Marcum the qualifying offer (around $13MM this year) for draft pick compensation, and if he turns it down, fine; if he accepts, you have a guy more likely to give you good production for that price than anyone you'll find on the market. Even if he gets hurt, it's only a one-year deal.

[WV Brew]

Brewers offense is not fine. 14th in road runs scored, 11th in road OPS. The fact that they are not horrible overall is an artifact of playing in Miller Park.

 

Hart is now even with Weeks in OBP. This is CH's worst year in that respect in about 4 years. He used to be able to run, hit for average and hit for power. Now it's all about power and that alone. Gamel's OPS in the minors is .873, Hart's was .856. Gamel will be fine if left alone. If, and it's a big if, they can get something worth trading for, they should trade Hart IMO. Ramirez is untradeable at this point without the Brewers contributing to his salary. It's a shame they couldn't have done a deal with the Dodgers for him, but it was always a long shot.

[monty57]

Why is it that so many put so much faith into the minor league starting pitchers and in Segura stepping in and vaulting us to contention in 2013, but feel that the notion of Gamel and Aoki replacing Hart is a "blow up" which would destroy our roster?

 

Unless we guarantee Hart a minimum of $13MM a year (probably more) for his mid-30's, he is gone after next year. We have replacements for Hart who will play for $450k. Hart being traded prior to next year should bring back a young player with six years of inexpensive team control. This isn't a "blow up" nor is it "trading Robin Yount," it's trading a replaceable player while he still has value. Gamel can play 1B for 5% of Hart's cost, Aoki can play RF for 10% of Hart's cost. I'd far rather work on extending Aoki for $3-4MM/year than extend Hart for $13-15MM/year. If Gamel doesn't pan out (which I think he will), then we have Morris or Kh Davis to man 1B in 2014 for league minimum. Why block all these guys with an expensive, mid-30's Corey Hart?

 

In 2013, we are relying on three or four unproven and unheralded pitchers and maybe a one-year deal on a guy trying to regain his value and lose the "injury risk" label. I hope they all pitch well. I'd like nothing more than to see Fiers and Estrada keep up their good MLB work, and see Peralta, Rogers, Thornburg, etc all reach their potential. While I hope it, I don't expect it... at least not all at once while they're still "getting their feet wet" at the MLB level. In my opinion, risking losing out on the return from a Hart trade (in prospects and money saved) because all these rookies could push us to the playoffs in 2013 is too much risk for the Brewers to take.

[slappzilla]

solid points monty, especially in how you compared how everyone is fine with bringing up minor league pitching but not shedding Hart for Gamel/Aoki.

 

Personally, I'd like to keep all 3, but in the grand scheme of things on a small market team, that doesn't always pan out.

[RockCoCougars]

Tough to say. At this point, I'd probably be inclined to keep the veteran bats and go with the young starting pitchers. Obviously, that leaves some holes, and I'd try to sign a bunch of vets on one year deals. Obviously the pen needs to be overhauled, and probably one veteran starter. As for SS, I'd try to get Drew from Arizona on a make-good type deal, but I have a feeling that a lot of G.M. will be trying that.

[owbc]

There are too many positives about this team to blow it up. The offense is great despite what the road OPS is--remember, everyone else in the division gets 5 series against the Brewers' pitching staff. Ramirez has been amazing, it is a shame that his season is going to waste.

 

If we're going to buy low and sell high, then I think we should bring Nyjer Morgan back. He is as good of a 4th/5th outfielder as we will find for the price. Hart is a tough call, but it really depends on what we can get for him. All the other GMs can see the declining OBP and speed as well and nobody likes to part with prospects these days. My guess is he will return without an extension.

 

As for the pitching staff, I would much rather take a risk on young guys than the old veterans. If Melvin does spend money, it should be on the bullpen. I find it hard to believe that only Axford will return, there are still 2 months for some of the other guys out there to turn it around.

 

The biggest concern going forward is how to keep the fan interest alive for 2013-2014. The Brewers remain in a period of high popularity and need to avoid the downward spiral that can plague a mid-market team after a period of success, where more losing leads to less revenue which leads to even more losing. I'm skeptical that the prospects gained by trading Hart/others would offset the damage done to fan interest and attendance in 2013-2014. Melvin/Mark A. prefer the middle ground, they will sell when the price is right, but otherwise they tend to hold onto players that have a track record of success.

[monty57]

This oft-repeated suggestion by many that Melvin & Co. don't have a plan is absurd. Folks may disagree with the FO's choice of approach, but that's entirely different than lacking a plan.

 

I worry that Melvin/Attanasio may get sidetracked worrying about what "puts butts in the seats" rather than what's the best baseball move.

 

I know there are thousands of differing opinions, and everyone is just guessing, but in my mind there is no doubt that selling was the best move this season, and I think Melvin and Attansio knew it early, but worried about how attendance would suffer if we became sellers. Thankfully, our team blew it in such grand fashion that everyone knew selling was the only option. Had we won five or six of the all important nine games after the All Star break, we may not have traded Greinke, and we'd be looking at a future without Segura, Hellweg and Pena. Of course we'd survive in that future, but we wouldn't be as good going forward.

 

I think the same thing about Hart. From a franchise-building standpoint, it seems obvious to me that Hart should be dealt while the receiving team would still get their draft pick. That would maximize Hart's trade value. Even here, where posters follow the Brewers more than the "casual fan," that is seen by some as "blowing up the team." Melvin and Attanasio will probably keep Hart at least until next trade deadline, and will sit Gamel on the bench or trade him away for nothing (a middle reliever to help us "contend" next year) just because they think season ticket sales would fall if Hart was traded. To me, this would be making moves for attendance/to keep the fans happy, rather than making the move which makes the most long-term sense for the franchise.

 

So, no, I don't necessarily agree with the "plan" in place. I'd rather they base all their baseball moves on baseball logic. But then again, I believe that Brewer fans will accept moves based on sound reasoning as long as they're informed what's going on and believe the ownership is being honest with us. We don't need bells & whistles... we operate better with blueprints. Heck, even the Cub fans are buying into rebuilding "the right way," and I give more credit to Brewer fans than I do Cub fans. I think the Brewer fans will stop showing up if the team starts losing and the fans think there are smoke & mirrors going on. I'm smelling some smoke coming from Miller Park.

[monty57]

Ramirez has been amazing, it is a shame that his season is going to waste.

 

I see this a lot. We need to remember that it was his pathetic bat sitting in the cleanup spot for the first couple months of the season which played a large part in our being in a big hole from the get-go. By the time he heated up, people were already beginning to talk about selling. It's great that he's playing well since, but I think the Brewers should think about demanding he play in a winter league or someting. Anything to get him to start his season in April instead of June.

 

I think we should bring Nyjer Morgan back. He is as good of a 4th/5th outfielder as we will find for the price

 

Unfortunately, his price will be around $3MM next year. We really missed the boat on this one, as we should've traded him prior to the season after we signed Aoki and Braun was exonerated. He was an obvious redundancy, but when this got brought up, it was quickly dismissed by the notion that we couldn't trust our "all in" season on some newbie from Japan. Now there's a good chance he'll be non-tendered in the offseason. I'd rather pay Schafer $450k to man CF with Gomez (who I think for better or worse will definitely be back).

[TooLiveBrew]

To be fair, Ramirez's only bad monthly OPS this season was April. He finished with an .848 OPS in May.

 

EDIT: Gomez (who I think for better or worse will definitely be back)

 

If the Brewers still believe in Gomez's hitting or nearing his upside as a hitter, I think they should approach Gomez before the end of the season with something like a 4-year extension offer. It will drive me crazy if they decide to keep him in the mix, only to let him walk in FA after 2014. I suppose if he does continue to progress as a hitter, you could always flip him at the deadline in '14, but unless he turns in a good performance prior to the trade deadline, I doubt you'd get much in return.

[paul253]

This oft-repeated suggestion by many that Melvin & Co. don't have a plan is absurd. Folks may disagree with the FO's choice of approach, but that's entirely different than lacking a plan.

 

What is his long term plan then? Every year he pieces together a roster that he thinks can compete and every year it seems to be at the expense of one or two young players. We were supposed to compete this season because all we did was replace Fielder and Yuni with Aramis and Gamel. But it's been an absolute disaster. Meanwhile, Taylor Green still hasn't really gotten a chance. Neither has Logan Schafer. So I guess when I say "make a plan" I really mean "make a plan that includes more than one year at a time".

 

And I still think people are overestimating how close we are to competing next season. The rotation probably won't be as good. Greinke is gone and will probably be replaced by either Peralta or Rogers. Marcum may be back but as of now they've shown no interest in re-signing him. He'll also have to be replaced. As will Wolf. So what are they going to do? Sign another average starting pitcher to a multi-year $20 million contract? That goes back to my question whether they have a long term plan or just continue to throw together a team they think can make the playoffs. And then there is the bullpen. The ENTIRE bullpen needs to be revamped. That's a lot easier said than done.

 

And the lineup is far from set. We can't just plug Segura, someone who's had all of 3 at bat above AA, into SS and assume he'll be a .280 hitter. We also have to do something about the depth. Cesar Isturez as your utility man isn't going to cut it. Just to put a respectable team out there you're going to have to a) spend a ton of money on the bullpen and bench and b) hope that your extremely young rotation holds up all season long and 3) hope you don't have the same injury plagued year as you did this year.

 

I still just think 2013 is the perfect year to start incorporating your young guys into the lineup. Schafer can play the role of Morgan. Rogers Peralta and Thornburg can spend all year or most of the year in the rotation gaining experience. Khris Davis can get some at bats, maybe even spend some time at first base if Gamel isn't cutting it? Taylor Green can get some at bats. It just makes too much sense to me. And if that is the plan, if also makes sense to move Corey Hart. He may love Milwaukee but if he gets to free agency teams are going to throw a TON of money at him. And he knows that, so why would he settle for $10 million a year again? By 2014, they'll have close to $50 million tied up 4 players (Weeks, Gallardo, Braun, Ramirez). Even if Hart signs for measly $13 million that's almost 2/3 of your payroll tied up in 5 players. I think we need to move on. And since we move on, why not trade him and get a high ceiling prospect for him?