2013: Which way would you go?

[paul253]

I realize that in reality that chances of Melvin trading him are slim to none. But I just thought it would be a nice topic of conversation considering how high his value would be. Supposed Cleveland already asked about him and I am sure other teams would be interested as well.

 

http://tracking.si.com/2012/07/16/justin-upton-trade-pirates-diamondbacks-pittsburgh-arizona/?sct=mlb_t2_a7

 

Apparently the Pirates are interested in Justin Upton. I don't know how Hart's value compares to Upton's but with McCutheon in CF I imagine Upton would be playing a corner spot. The article says the D'Backs would be interested in Cole and Taillon obviously. Upton is signed longer but Hart has better numbers, particularly power numbers. Any chance Hart would bring back Cole or Taillon?

 

Other than that. Should Hart be available for the right price or should we hang onto him no matter what?

[jerichoholicninja]

Trade him. I think you could get more for Corey than Greinke. Corey can get the team that acquires him picks next year, Greinke cannot. He plays two positions of surplus for the Crew and can easily be replaced next year.

[reillymcshane]

There's a whole thread on this in the trade forum:

 

viewtopic.php?f=66&t=28467

[paul253]

My bad.....I forgot about that one. Even after I posted on it.

[splitterpfj]

Over the winter, the Oakland A's traded Gio Gonzalez, Trevor Cahill, and Andrew Bailey, for a pile of young players.

 

Those players are a major part of the reason the A's are now surprising everyone by contending for a playoff spot.

 

The Brewers have Hart, Weeks, Braun, Lucroy and Gallardo all under contract through at least next season, and if they chose to, they could bring Marcum back for another season too.

 

If you were the Brewers' GM, which way would you go...would you trade some of those guys out for top prospects, and try to build a young team that could contend for five years, or would you spend big on a free agent or two, and try to win now with the core group you've already got?

[pogokat]

i think they can contend next year...i don't think blowing up the team will be the key here...

 

so, i think a free agent or two, an infusion of our own new talent, and maybe one more trade...hart maybe? would be my plan

[Raw Biz]

It all depends on the return. I think Hart is expendable regardless so I would ship him out, targeting young SP/3B/RF. If we could pull off a Gio/Cahill-type trade with Yo and get back a young potential stud SP, I'd consider it. If ARI wanted to do another one of these this offseason, I'd definitely be interested in one of Bauer/Skaggs. Now I doubt ARI wants to get rid of those two but hey, I didn't think they'd get rid of Parker last year either.

 

I think this team could contend next year, depending on what they do with their pitching. Obviously the bullpen needs to be upgraded but I also don't want to count on the likes of Fiers/Estrada as our #2/3 options. They might be pitching well this year but I don't know how much that will hold up next year. All in all, I will always consider trading someone if the return exceeds the value of what we ship out. What defines value is another discussion, however.

[paul253]

I'd be all for trading Hart Ramirez and Weeks if you can get anything for them. I think Hart has a decent amount of value and you could probably get a decent outfielder or third basemen in return. It'd be nice to get out from under Ramirez and Weeks contracts and use that money to rebuild the bullpen. I'd even trade Gallardo if you can get a package like the A's got for Gonzalez.

 

I think 2013 will be a transition year for the team. Peralta, Rogers, and Thornburg should get a decent number of starts and experience while Hellweg, Pena, Jungmann, Bradley, Burgos, Nelson and Gagnon all continue to make their way through the upper levels of the system. I wouldn't expect too much out of them but I think they have a chance to anchor the rotation for a long time.....starting in 2014.

 

Lineup wise I'm excited to see what Logan Schafer and Khris Davis can do in the outfield. And I'm interested to see if Gennett and Morris can keep up their success in Nashville. I'm also excited about Segura obviously.

 

Overall, like I said I think 2013 will be a year of transition. I don't expect much in terms of winning and because of that I'd like to see them move some of the expensive vets. Ideally Ramirez would be the first to go and if you can get decent value for Weeks and Hart I'd move them too.

[markedman5]

It's amazing to me how many people just want to just ship Hart out. The guy came up through the system. He has repeatdly stated how much he loves Milwaukee and the Brewers and would like to finish his career here. He puts up good numbers consistently and is now almost a gold glove caliber player at a position of need for us.

 

Maybe he will sign a reasonable extension?

 

Trading for prospects is a crap shoot. It's one thing to trade a good player who doesn't want to be here but that is not the case here.

 

I hope Doug sees what it will take to extend him. If wants too much fine look into trading him.

 

I swear half you guys would have wanted to trade Yount after 82 to try and get some good prospects.....

[SRB]

Oakland has gotten unbelievable performance out of the players it brought in--like, incredibly lucky--and made a fairly huge free agent signing (Cespedes) and are still barely in contention by the skin of their teeth.

 

Instead of trading any more players (barring a huge overpay by somebody) they need to sign an above-average 1B/RF, SP, and maybe some cheaper bullpen pieces. Together that would be a very good 2013 team. IMO, NL Central favorites.

[paul253]

It's amazing to me how many people just want to just ship Hart out. The guy came up through the system. He has repeatdly stated how much he loves Milwaukee and the Brewers and would like to finish his career here. He puts up good numbers consistently and is now almost a gold glove caliber player at a position of need for us.

 

So what? It's a business. I appreciate the fact that he came up with us as much as the next guy but the fact is he'll be 32 when his new contract starts. He'll probably be looking for one more big contract and it'll probably end up being somewhere in the 4 year $70 million range. This year is a perfect example of what happens when Milwaukee puts too much money into too few players. The depth is embarrassing and one or two serious injuries leaves you with black holes at multiple positions. And while first base may be a position of need right now, the fact is 1) Gamel will be back next season 2) First base is probably the easiest position outside of maybe left field to field and 3) Trading Hart and/or Ramirez could easily bring back a replacement. Morris will be in AAA. Khris Davis will be in AAA. Taylor Green played some first this year. There are plenty of options.

 

I've said before that guys like Hart and Weeks are exactly the types of guys we need to move away from. We had them for the primes of their careers and now that they are starting to get older we should seriously consider moving them while they still have value. I don't see why we should spend $15-$17 million a year on a 32 year old first basemen and hold onto him until his mid-late 30s. I am tired of watching guys being traded away for garbage because we held onto them too long and they have no more value. If we aren't going to contend in 2013, which we may not considering how young the rotation is going to be, we should move Hart and bring back more young, cheap, controllable talent.

[paul253]

Instead of trading any more players (barring a huge overpay by somebody) they need to sign an above-average 1B/RF, SP, and maybe some cheaper bullpen pieces. Together that would be a very good 2013 team. IMO, NL Central favorites.

Easier said than done. Any above average SP is going to cost big $$$. And even then, we'll still have 3 rotation spots to fill. I like Fiers but he'll be very hard pressed to repeat this year's performance. The final two spots will probably be filled by Estrada, who is a borderline starter, and a rookie (either Rogers or Peralta).

 

Milwaukee needs to make a plan. An actual plan. Not a "let's try to piece together a contender" strategy like they did this year. Let 2013 be the year our young pitching prospects (Peralta, Rogers, maybe Thornburg) and positional prospects (Schafer, maybe Gindl, Green and Davis) get some experience and we see what they can do. Let it be the year we shed some salary and get our payroll back in whack. Then in 2014 the rotation should be much less of a question mark then it is now and we should have some money available for positions of need (bullpen and depth).

 

I just think we are further away from contending than people think. Our entire bullpen needs to be revamped. Even Axford is now a huge question mark. Then 2013 rotation is anybody's guess. As of right now I think the only two guarantees are Gallardo and Fiers. We aren't 2001 bad but we need to stop overspending on veteran free agents and see what our own cheap guys can do. 2013 seems like the ideal year to do that considering how close so many of them (Rogers, Thornburg, Peralta, Burgos, Schafer, Gennett, Davis, Morris, Gindl) are. And we could hopefully finally see what we have in Green and Gamel.

[igor67]

I was skeptical the Brewers would get the prospects with enough upside to make dealing Greinke worthwhile, but they did. That said the Brewers were pretty much the only team who got a pretty high ceiling prospect and that was for the top starting pitcher at the deadline. Hart has plenty of value, but not nearly the premium. As a result I'm doubtful that the Brewers would find a deal where they got high upside guys in return. Keeping in mind they don't have a lot of prospect holes at this point (trading for relievers as the center piece just doesn't do it for me). Maybe you try something outside the box and target some A ball level guys, but you only have so many slots to handout for development time. It wouldn't necessarily be a failure if they just played out the year in my book. Hart looks like he should hit 30 HRs and SLG .500. He's no Votto, but Prince only has an .878 OPS this year and fewer HRs and doubles than Hart (.838 OPS)! The exact amount of defense adjustment is hard to say precisely, but it definitely closes that gap. Lest you think that is a fluke by Prince he has had 3 other major league seasons with an OPS in the .800's.

Short version of the argument Hart is a pretty good bet to give value as good or better than most of our current hitting prospects, and not particularly likely to bring back a lot of really good prospects.

[logan82]

It all comes down to whether or not you expect to compete in 2013 or not. I personally don't and don't think we want Hart after next year so he is an expendable piece.

[3and2Fastball]

I think I would keep everyone and take a shot at competing in 2013, including even doing as one year contract with Marcum.

 

I would let Morgan & K-Rod, Wolf & Loe go from this years team, but I think a lineup of

 

Aoki

Gomez

Braun

Ramirez

Hart

Weeks

Segura

Lucroy

 

can compete as long as the pitching is fairly strong...

 

I'd be concerned but optimistic about Gallardo-Fiers-Marcum-Rogers-Thornburg/Peralta/Estrada in my rotation. I would look to shore up the bullpen and try to add a starting pitcher over the winter.

 

I think Weeks can bounce back and in general I think the overall lineup is too talented to just blow them all up

[markedman5]

Who says he wants 15 to 17 million? We have no idea what he would be looking for stay or how many years he would need to sign.

 

It's one thing if we have a young Fielder coming up to play for the minimum but we don't. Morris has had a nice year but before this year he was barely a prospect.

 

All I'm saying is I like Corey. He has earned some loyalty. If he wants 5 years at 15-17 then I look to move him but if he says hey I love it here give me 3 for 36-39 I'd give serious thought to keeping him around.

 

It's amazing to me how many people just want to just ship Hart out. The guy came up through the system. He has repeatdly stated how much he loves Milwaukee and the Brewers and would like to finish his career here. He puts up good numbers consistently and is now almost a gold glove caliber player at a position of need for us.

 

So what? It's a business. I appreciate the fact that he came up with us as much as the next guy but the fact is he'll be 32 when his new contract starts. He'll probably be looking for one more big contract and it'll probably end up being somewhere in the 4 year $70 million range. This year is a perfect example of what happens when Milwaukee puts too much money into too few players. The depth is embarrassing and one or two serious injuries leaves you with black holes at multiple positions. And while first base may be a position of need right now, the fact is 1) Gamel will be back next season 2) First base is probably the easiest position outside of maybe left field to field and 3) Trading Hart and/or Ramirez could easily bring back a replacement. Morris will be in AAA. Khris Davis will be in AAA. Taylor Green played some first this year. There are plenty of options.

 

I've said before that guys like Hart and Weeks are exactly the types of guys we need to move away from. We had them for the primes of their careers and now that they are starting to get older we should seriously consider moving them while they still have value. I don't see why we should spend $15-$17 million a year on a 32 year old first basemen and hold onto him until his mid-late 30s. I am tired of watching guys being traded away for garbage because we held onto them too long and they have no more value. If we aren't going to contend in 2013, which we may not considering how young the rotation is going to be, we should move Hart and bring back more young, cheap, controllable talent.

[logan82]

I like our young pitching but I don't like betting on them for next year. I also don't really want to see Segura up until later next year.

[faede]

It all comes down to whether or not you expect to compete in 2013 or not. I personally don't and don't think we want Hart after next year so he is an expendable piece.

 

Just wondering why exactly?

 

I know I'm new to posting here. But...

 

Aoki/Gomez CF

Lucroy C

Braun LF

Ramirez 3B

Hart/Khris Davis RF

Morris/Hart 1B

Weeks 2B

Segura SS

 

Seems like a pretty strong lineup to me. I maybe delusional, but, I actually like that lineup a lot! I think Khrush Davis (love that nickname), Hunter Morris and Segura are "demanding their time" in Milwaukee next year. Where guys like Green, Shafer, Gindl and Gennett aren't really pushing the front office to get rid of the quality guys (Hart especially) some are attempting to replace.

 

The rest of this season is the key. Who is going to step up and "demand" their time in Milwaukee next year?

I think you have enough pieces Fiers/Burgos/Peralta/Rogers/Nelson/Hellweg/Marcum(1 year)/Estrada to find at least three solid rotation spots around Yo and you just know they are going to at least make a run at Greinke (sure, unlikely, but who knows) and still have a shot at a Greinke/Marcum-like trade in the offseason.

 

The bullpen stinks, but, you're not locked into any crappy contracts and there's a ton of guys I'd like a look at: Henderson, Jesus Sanchez, Pena maybe and if you are going to fix something in free agency, the least expensive thing to fix is the bullpen.

 

I'm actually excited for the rest of the season and the September call ups. And I'm loving Peralta, Burgos, Fiers, Rogers, Segura, Morris, and Davis allowing another wave of, what appears to be, a decent maybe above average wave of prospects to start another window of winning. I'd say the success of these guys are key.. they are a wave of prospects that "snuck up" a bit, success-wise. They just aren't as obvious as a Weeks/Fielder/Braun/Hart type wave. Reap the benefits!

[MNBrew]

Milwaukee needs to make a plan. An actual plan. Not a "let's try to piece together a contender" strategy like they did this year. Let 2013 be the year our young pitching prospects (Peralta, Rogers, maybe Thornburg) and positional prospects (Schafer, maybe Gindl, Green and Davis) get some experience and we see what they can do. Let it be the year we shed some salary and get our payroll back in whack. Then in 2014 the rotation should be much less of a question mark then it is now and we should have some money available for positions of need (bullpen and depth)

This oft-repeated suggestion by many that Melvin & Co. don't have a plan is absurd. Folks may disagree with the FO's choice of approach, but that's entirely different than lacking a plan.

 

I love the potential of young players, but as someone else just suggested, with Hart at 1B & hopefully Segura manning SS, the only major lineup question mark is RF (and I think it's still worth giving Gamel a shot at RF). The rotation has Yo & a bunch of youth (which is why I like a lower-risk 1-year Marcum deal if he's healthy) but that's nonetheless a talented AND capable bunch. That leaves the rest of the RPs after Axford. McClendon & Henderson, plus Estrada if the rotation's sufficiently loaded otherwise, are among the cheap guys who could legitimately vie for spots... And as we've often seen Melvin's words proven true, the bullpen is the easiest part of your team to turn over annually. . . .

 

That's a solid plan: a solid major league roster AND loads of strong young talent coming up at all levels. That's a recipe for becoming the Detroit Red Wings of the past 20 years. The payroll is not ridiculous. I totally agree that while there are potentially some concerns, this isn't a crappy team next year as long as they fix the bullpen, and in fact it's one that has as good a chance as any of contending to win the NL Central. And being a competitive team in contention takes care of continuing to bring folks through the turnstiles....

 

As such, I can't at all buy into the logic of trading Hart or Ramirez (who are producing solidly for their ages & relatively reasonable contracts -- Lord knows, guys on the FA market would get paid much more than these two are (thinking Ramirez's AAV, not year-by-year salary) with mostly safe certainty that you couldn't guarantee any better production) right now OR the idea of blowing most of this team up and playing every young player on the planet outside of Braun's & Lucroy's positions (Hello, Seattle Mariners!).

 

Two years ago, the Reds won the division and were seen as a team to beat for several years. Last year several guys underproduced and they weren't serious contenders at all by crunch time. While they added Mat Latos & worked to improve the weaker spots some over the winter, sure enough, they're really strong again this year. . . . The Brewers of '12 potentially mirror the Reds of '11, so it's hardly a given that the Brewers are doomed to being a 2nd-division team for the foreseeable future. I, for one, believe they indeed have nearly as good of a chance going forward as any other good team in the division. While we don't have Greinke any more (not that he couldn't re-sign, however unlikely), this is still a team that could contend AND is in a position of strength in terms of not having any major gaping position holes across its prospects.

[MNBrew]

I swear half you guys would have wanted to trade Yount after 82 to try and get some good prospects.....

Amen!

 

To your other point about Hart -- his home-grown status & his desire to stay here -- I don't see the home-grown thing as holding much sway in terms of an extension. But I've been impressed with his play at 1B, and if he's in the range of 3/$30M, that's reasonable money to pay for that production to an upper-end 1B. . . . Of course, the hard thing with a guy like Hart is that his hot stretches make you love him but his droughts at the plate can be painful & seemingly endless. At least, however, his defense at 1B is much more of an asset than it had become in RF (even though it's not like he was inept out there -- not a Gold Glover but hardly a black hole, either).

[splitterpfj]

I swear half you guys would have wanted to trade Yount after 82 to try and get some good prospects.....

 

1. No has said "Trade Braun."

2. In 1982, the Brewers could afford any player in the game.

[Ennder]

Over the winter, the Oakland A's traded Gio Gonzalez, Trevor Cahill, and Andrew Bailey, for a pile of young players.

 

Those players are a major part of the reason the A's are now surprising everyone by contending for a playoff spot.

 

Bailey was an injury waiting to happen, Cahill is a product of the pitchers park and Gonzalez hasn't been able to stay productive for a full season yet. The A's aren't really contenders at this point either, they are a team that has massively overproduced and still will likely miss the playoffs. This post is all full of fail before it even gets to its main point.

 

There are two paths the Brewers can go down. #1 is they can try to win in 2013 and #2 if they get as much as they can for Braun and Gallardo this offseason, there is no in between. Keeping Braun and or Gallardo is just idiotic if they don't think they can win next year.

[markedman5]

Hell will freeze over before MA trades Braun this off season.

[splitterpfj]

Exactly, markedman5, as it would have if Harry Dalton had traded Yount.

[splitterpfj]

Bailey was an injury waiting to happen, Cahill is a product of the pitchers park and Gonzalez hasn't been able to stay productive for a full season yet. The A's aren't really contenders at this point either, they are a team that has massively overproduced and still will likely miss the playoffs. This post is all full of fail before it even gets to its main point.

 

Did the A's trade Bailey, Cahill and Gonzalez for a pile of young players over the winter? Yes, they did.

 

Are the A's currently contending for a playoff spot, and is that a surprise? At this point they would qualify for the playoffs, which is most definitely a surprise.

 

Full of fail? Ennder, I'm not sure where you're coming from on this one.