Qualifying Offers Will Be Worth $13MM-Plus

[torts]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/08/qualifying-offers-will-be-worth-13mm-plus.html

 

Qualifying Offers Will Be Worth $13MM-Plus

By Ben Nicholson-Smith [August 1 at 1:15pm CST]

Qualifying offers for free agents will be in the $13.3-$13.4MM range, ESPN.com's Buster Olney reports (on Twitter). The value of the qualifying offers is based on the salaries of the 125 best-paid MLB players, and had been expected to fall in the $12.5MM range.

 

Teams must make free agents qualifying offers to be eligible for draft pick compensation. Teams obtain one supplementary round draft pick if a player turns down a qualifying offer to sign elsewhere. I explained qualifying offers in detail earlier this year.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/08/qualifying-offers-will-be-worth-13mm-plus.html

 

 

there we go.

[Godspeed]

So gone are the days of getting a comp pick for the Brian Shouses of the world? Okay.

[RockCoCougars]

If you are reading this Doug Melvin, no draft choice is worth the risk of burning $13.4 million on an injured Marcum next season. You got lucky with the Sheets situation, and got burned on K-Rod. I hope that you've learned your lesson.

[torts]

agreed. i was into the idea of marcum coming back on a one-year deal, but the more I think about it, even 12.5 mil is too much, especially since he hasnt pitched since mid june.

[Raw Biz]

What if Marcum comes back mid to late August and pitches like he has all year? I think I'd still give him the offer. If he turns it down, draft pick. If not, good starter for next year. I think I'd take the risk considering how much it would cost to sign a FA of his caliber.

[jjfanec]

I agree with Raw Biz. It all depends IF Marcum comes back and how he pitches. If he some solid starts he probably prices himself out of Milwaukee but he could choose to sign and get a bigger deal after a good season. If accepts and stays healthy he would be a great piece to trade at the deadline. If he doesnt sign we get a pick. It is all dependent on his health but if he is healthy it is a good risk

[paul253]

I wonder how many players will be offered this deal. Free agents to be who were traded, like Greinke, don't receive draft pick compensation because they haven't been with the team all year so offering them a QO doesn't gain them anything. This should seriously reduce the number of picks between the first and second rounds.

 

So gone are the days of getting a comp pick for the Brian Shouses of the world? Okay.

 

And hopefully gone are the days when "Round 2" starts with a pick in the 60s.

[torts]

What if Marcum comes back mid to late August and pitches like he has all year? I think I'd still give him the offer. If he turns it down, draft pick. If not, good starter for next year. I think I'd take the risk considering how much it would cost to sign a FA of his caliber.

 

im stating my thought from this point, not based on a what-if of the future. right now, he's not worth risking an offer of $13,500,000

[Raw Biz]

What if Marcum comes back mid to late August and pitches like he has all year? I think I'd still give him the offer. If he turns it down, draft pick. If not, good starter for next year. I think I'd take the risk considering how much it would cost to sign a FA of his caliber.

 

im stating my thought from this point, not based on a what-if of the future. right now, he's not worth risking an offer of $13,500,000

 

Okay but you said he hadn't pitched since mid-June. He threw a bullpen session today so he could be back on track. I don't think there was any structural damage so if he pitches again at all this year and is even Wolf-esque, I'd still probably give him the offer. I think he's a good enough pitcher that he would be valuable again next year, assuming he doesn't decline the offer.

[PrinceEatMeat]

It's way too risky to give Marcum that kind of offer. I personally wouldn't do it. I'd just try to get something for him in a trade in late August after he's back and healthy again.

[PKBadger]

Let's say that Marcum's health is still iffy. Can we decline to make a qualifying offer (I assume there is a deadline to extend these), and then offer him less money with no potential for draft pick compensation once he hits the free market?

[PrinceEatMeat]

Let's say that Marcum's health is still iffy. Can we decline to make a qualifying offer (I assume there is a deadline to extend these), and then offer him less money with no potential for draft pick compensation once he hits the free market?

 

Yeah, why couldn't we? Anyone can make him an offer. He's a free agent. We don't have to make the qualifying offer to be able to re-sign him.

[Yeti73]

So looking at last year, you had Carl Pavano get 2/16, De La Rosa get 2/21, Lily get 3/33. I would put him above each of those guys and you only take on a one year risk. I think I'd do it. He's a good clubhouse guy, probably sees that one good season could net him a long-term deal and we'd probably benefit. When he's on, he's a top 20 pitcher in the NL.

[igor67]

I'm pretty sure they just need to sign him before the qualifying offer deadline. As long as he will accept it. 13 million might be an over pay, but will there actually be better options to spend money on? If you are industrious you might be able to put together a cheap, but effective pen, and can then spend the 13 million hoping to hit the daily double. The big performance to push the team into contention and the extra draft pick at the end of the rainbow (which given the slotting system and fewer supplemental picks now has relatively more value). The bet could easily not payoff the way you'd hope, but since teams never actually save money to spend in later seasons there is little reason to value frugality for its own sake. See the Rodriguez offer based on everything he had said there was all kinds of reasons to believe he would either get a longer contract elsewhere or flat out decline arby knowing he wouldn't be the closer. I think it was a good decision that had a bad outcome.

[RockCoCougars]

You could likely do a nice revamp of the bullpen and sign a veteran starter for less than $13 million total. Marcum has had issues related to durability both years he's been here, so I wouldn't take that risk. I'd look into signing him, but not for that kind of money. I don't think he deserves almost a 100% raise based on this season.

[PrinceEatMeat]

I think there's a lot better chance that Melvin tries to work out a cheaper contract with Marcum than offer him the qualifying offer. Problem is that Marcum may want a multi-year deal to do so, but then again he may just want a one-year deal to prove himself and go for the big money after next season. I guess we'll wait and see what happens.

[DHonks]

PrinceEatMeat is likely right. Why worry about the qualifying offer....we'll likely keep him for 1 year and $7-8 million. That's a heck of a bargain for a guy that--if healthy--would command probably $12-15 million per year on the open market

[Ennder]

You got lucky with the Sheets situation, and got burned on K-Rod. I hope that you've learned your lesson.

I'm baffled by what part or the Sheets situation you think was lucky. He didn't get burned on K-Rod at all, he took a slight risk to try to win a World Series and we had the best team in the NL but failed when the important part of the year came. This post seems completely silly.

[RockCoCougars]

You got lucky with the Sheets situation, and got burned on K-Rod. I hope that you've learned your lesson.

I'm baffled by what part or the Sheets situation you think was lucky. He didn't get burned on K-Rod at all, he took a slight risk to try to win a World Series and we had the best team in the NL but failed when the important part of the year came. This post seems completely silly.

 

He offered Sheets arbitration when he had a mangled right arm. All Sheets would have had to do is agree to arbitration and he would have collected 8 figures to sit at home for the entire season. Yes, he did get burned by K-Rod. Most people were stunned when K-Rod accepted arbitration, and it was obvious that Melvin made no contingencies to carry K-Rod's salary. The only reason that he offered K-Rod arby was for the draft pick.

[TooLiveBrew]

You got lucky with the Sheets situation, and got burned on K-Rod. I hope that you've learned your lesson.

I'm baffled by what part or the Sheets situation you think was lucky. He didn't get burned on K-Rod at all, he took a slight risk to try to win a World Series and we had the best team in the NL but failed when the important part of the year came. This post seems completely silly.

I don't disagree that the K-Rod move was defensible, but what's really silly is calling the Brewers the best team in the NL this season... at any point.

[clancyphile]

PrinceEatMeat is likely right. Why worry about the qualifying offer....we'll likely keep him for 1 year and $7-8 million. That's a heck of a bargain for a guy that--if healthy--would command probably $12-15 million per year on the open market

 

For Marcum to leave next year? OK, that's one year later for us to try to get a comp pick.

 

I'd lay out a 4 year, $28 million deal with incentives for innings pitched. If Marcum is healthy in that timeframe, it's a bargain. If he does have more durability issues (As was the case in 2011 and this year), the payroll hit is moderated.

[paul253]

Can some explain something to me regarding qualifying offers and this new CBA. Let's look at the Zach Greinke situation. The Angels traded for him but since he will not have played for them the entire year they are not eligible for draft pick compensation for him.

 

Here's my question. Obviously if the Angels offer him a QO he'll turn it down. So if the Angels just say screw the QO because he is not going to accept it, does the team that does sign him still have to forfeit their first round pick when they sign him? Would/Should the Angels make a QO just so the signing team has to give up their first round pick? If not, isn't this a crappy aspect of the new CBA as teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, and whoever else can sign the top free agents without being penalized at all with the loss of a draft pick because teams don't bother making the player on offer they know he won't accept?

[torts]

Can some explain something to me regarding qualifying offers and this new CBA. Let's look at the Zach Greinke situation. The Angels traded for him but since he will not have played for them the entire year they are not eligible for draft pick compensation for him.

 

Here's my question. Obviously if the Angels offer him a QO he'll turn it down. So if the Angels just say screw the QO because he is not going to accept it, does the team that does sign him still have to forfeit their first round pick when they sign him? Would/Should the Angels make a QO just so the signing team has to give up their first round pick? If not, isn't this a crappy aspect of the new CBA as teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, and whoever else can sign the top free agents without being penalized at all with the loss of a draft pick because teams don't bother making the player on offer they know he won't accept?

 

Teams will only lose their 1st rd pick if they sign a player who declined a QO from their 2012 team. The Angels can offer him a QO, but no team, regardless of who signs him at the end of the season, will be losing a draft pick because he was not on the opening day roster. The Angels will also not receive a comp pick for offering him a QO and losing him because he was not on the team from day 1 of the season. So it doesnt matter if the Angels offer or dont offer ZG a QO.

 

I dont see it being "crappy", the only team with a chance to get a comp pick for Greinke (not the 1st rd pick of whatever team that signs him after he declines a QO from MIL) was the Brewers, and they valued getting 3 prospects higher than one comp pick after the 1st rd. I think the new CBA makes a lot of sense, a new team should only be penalized if they sign a player who played the entire season with one team, was offered a 1 year $13+ mil deal, turned it down, and signed elsewhere for more money. I think penalizing a team for going after a player who was traded for part of a season was a bit much, and further complicated things for small-market teams making a run for it, and the (possible) plans of additional draft picks (i.e. CC sabathia).

[JohnBriggs12]

You could likely do a nice revamp of the bullpen and sign a veteran starter for less than $13 million total. Marcum has had issues related to durability both years he's been here, so I wouldn't take that risk. I'd look into signing him, but not for that kind of money. I don't think he deserves almost a 100% raise based on this season.

 

Exactly. He's not going to get anything near $13 million a season in FA and given he's coming off an injury plagued season, teams aren't going to be lining up to give him multiple years either. It's probably in his best interest to sign a one year deal for half that (or even less with some incentives) and show he's healthy for a full season, then go the FA route. That could work for the Brewers too.

[monty57]

PrinceEatMeat is likely right. Why worry about the qualifying offer....we'll likely keep him for 1 year and $7-8 million. That's a heck of a bargain for a guy that--if healthy--would command probably $12-15 million per year on the open market

 

For Marcum to leave next year? OK, that's one year later for us to try to get a comp pick.

 

I'd lay out a 4 year, $28 million deal with incentives for innings pitched. If Marcum is healthy in that timeframe, it's a bargain. If he does have more durability issues (As was the case in 2011 and this year), the payroll hit is moderated.

 

If Marcum signs a lower-value, one-year deal, it is only because he knows the market for him will be soft after his injury this season. He may do a one-year deal to "rebuild" his value so that he can sign a higher-value, long-term deal when that one-year deal is up. He knows he probably only has one long-term deal left in his career, so the only way he'd sign a deal for $7MM/season over multiple-years is if he was injured, in which case the Brewers wouldn't offer it.

 

On the open market, a healthy Marcum is worth a lot of money. If he comes back, shows he's healthy and and pitches like an ace, he may not be available on a one-year deal, in which case making the qualifying offer may be worth it. It all depends on if Marcum is healthy, how he pitches and how the market looks once the season ends.

 

In a perfect world, Marcum signs a low-value, one-year deal and he helps the team to the playoffs next year. Another good scenario would be for Marcum to accept a lower-value, one-year deal from the Brewers, and then have them flip him for prospects at next season's trade deadline. Either way, if we can get him on a low-value, one-year deal, it's low risk/high reward.