On a Scale of 1 to 10...

[Roderick]

so holding onto them into August isn't going to necessarily be of complete detriment considering their salaries are already accounted for.

 

But if they could have moved Wolf or KRod (for nothing) if they paid half of their salaries (or something similar) - it still would have significantly saved them some money. You could have shipped over all of Wolf's remaining 2012 salary this year just to have the other team pay his buyout.

[RockCoCougars]

Regarding Ramirez and Hart, I think that you can make two decent comparisons to guys who were traded in Hanley and Pence. Supposedly the Dodgers were interested in ARam, but they needed a shortstop as well. I would have jumped at an offer of Eovaldi for ARam, but in looking at the Hanley deal there is no way the Dodgers would have done that. Hanley can play shortstop and is younger with a much higher upside, and the Dodgers gave up basically Eovaldi straight up for him. As for the Pence/Hart comparison, perhaps Hart has a bit more value because he's cheaper next year, but I'd put those two right in the same boat. No way do I deal Hart for what the Phillies received for Pence.

[pacopete4]

Hart as a first basemen has a lot more value than Hart as a RF. I think we keep him for next season, try to work out a team friendly contract and if he doesn't want to do that then we trade him mid season and give a guy like Hunter Morris a shot. If Hart signs, then maybe we move a guy like Hunter Morris for some pitching. I dunno, I'm just spit ballin

[chad25]

I, in all honesty, give the trades a 10. Melvin traded Greinke knowing that we have a low chance on resigning him and got great value in return. And the Angels are saying they are trying to resign Greinke long-term bc they dont want to have given up all that in return for a rental. The Angels have money to do it and the brewers couldn't offer Greinke what they can. All 3 prospects we got in return could be major league ready by the end of 2013. Kottaras became expendable and we got a high ceiling reliever. Melvin didnt burn the team down because I think he knows that we can't go back to rebuild mode again. It would hurt the fan-base and $$$ coming in if we completely gave up on 2013. Die-hard fans will always spend money and watch, but this is a football state, and there many more fair-weather brewer fans out there. Our lineup will still be very good next year (if we keep Hart especially, and from what Roenicke says they might have him be our long-term 1B), our bullpen could make a 180 turn and be great (that does happen often) and the pitching staff will be MLB average to above average (depending on if Melvin signs 1 or 2 FA pitchers to 1-yr deals with club options on 2nd)..... so is it out of the question that 2013 is a playoff year? no and these trades showed that.

 

sidenote: I see so much hatred for cesar izturis on this forum. did people think he was going to come in and bat .300 with all this extra power that no one has ever seen before? I think he's done his job well. Whenever I'm watching he's getting hits or making good defensive plays. And he was robbed of a hit last night. Maxwell made an amazing catch going that far left center to catch it. If Maxwell is 3 inches shorter he doesnt make it and izturis gets another triple.... I'll go so far as to say that if we resigned Izturis next year to be a backup IF, I would be ok with it. People were ok with Counsell being that guy and they hit about the same minus OBP.

[pacopete4]

sidenote: I see so much hatred for cesar izturis on this forum. did people think he was going to come in and bat .300 with all this extra power that no one has ever seen before? I think he's done his job well. Whenever I'm watching he's getting hits or making good defensive plays. And he was robbed of a hit last night. Maxwell made an amazing catch going that far left center to catch it. If Maxwell is 3 inches shorter he doesnt make it and izturis gets another triple.... I'll go so far as to say that if we resigned Izturis next year to be a backup IF, I would be ok with it. People were ok with Counsell being that guy and they hit about the same minus OBP.

 

I agree to some extent but I think I'd rather see a guy like Ransom, who does have some pop, come back and play multiple positions well for us. But if I had a choice, I'd rather try fresh blood than those two guys, depending on whats out there. But you're right, people have been harsh on the guy thinking he'd just magically hit because we signed him.

[trwi7]

The hatred for Cesar Izturis is more directed at Melvin for having him be basically the only option for backup infield this year.

[502 to Right]

Doug Melvin has no interest in trading Corey Hart and Aramis Ramirez. They are playing 1B/RF and 3B for the Brewers in 2013. Anyone who thinks the Brewers are going to strip the team down and do a Cubs-style rebuilding are delusional.

[Dollarbill13]

Doug Melvin has no interest in trading Corey Hart and Aramis Ramirez. They are playing 1B/RF and 3B for the Brewers in 2013. Anyone who thinks the Brewers are going to strip the team down and do a Cubs-style rebuilding are delusional.

 

Thank you for providing a definitive answer. Would someone who is just suggesting that it's in our best interest to trade Hart or Ramirez also be delusional or only those who think Melvin actually will trade them?

[Dollarbill13]

Ramirez's contract now has negative value (it was very backloaded). I would trade him for nothing. Hart is worth what he's getting paid.

 

I know I'm in the minority here but he'd really only have to produce about 6 WAR over the last two seasons of his contract for the last two years to have "zero value". Considering ZIPS has him finishing 2012 at 5 WAR, I don't think its unrealistic to think he'll produce positive value over the last two years of his contract.

[monty57]

Hart as a first basemen has a lot more value than Hart as a RF. I think we keep him for next season, try to work out a team friendly contract and if he doesn't want to do that then we trade him mid season and give a guy like Hunter Morris a shot. If Hart signs, then maybe we move a guy like Hunter Morris for some pitching. I dunno, I'm just spit ballin

 

What defines "team friendly?" Gamel would play for around $450,000 next year, and will probably never get expensive in arby due to no stats to date. Morris has three $450,000 seasons in him before he even hits arby. Kh Davis is mashing and could easily man 1B if someone else doesn't pan out. We have plenty of league minimum options, while Hart's "team friendly" deal will probably cost $13-15MM/year for 4-5 years while he's pushing to/through his mid-30's. With the situation we're in, I'd gladly take a Segura-level prospect, let Gamel play 1B in 2013 and have Gamel/Morris/whoever fight it out in 2014 & beyond. Guarantee $50-70MM for Hart or pay $450k/year to 1B and another position filled in the Hart trade. Seems easy to me, and that's if Hart give a big "hometown discount" and doesn't ask for a Werth-type $100MM deal.

 

It's the constant "extend the guys we're familiar with," "only trust veterans," "block or trade any decent prospect" strategy we've been running for several years that is getting us to the point that we'll eventually hit a cliff. We're getting less talented but more expensive. Extending Hart is warm and fuzzy but is probably the wrong route to take. He's good, but not anywhere near the Braun-categoy player you build your future around. He is exactly the type player we should try to extend for a few seasons while he's still in arby/pre-arby and then trade away while the value's still high to get more young guys who will get better while the older player's production wanes. Let the next team pay peak production price during the falling production years.

 

Supposedly the Dodgers were interested in ARam, but they needed a shortstop as well. I would have jumped at an offer of Eovaldi for ARam, but in looking at the Hanley deal there is no way the Dodgers would have done that. Hanley can play shortstop and is younger with a much higher upside, and the Dodgers gave up basically Eovaldi straight up for him.

 

Hanley probably had the most value of any player in baseball a few years ago. He's played poorly for two years now, and has been a clubhouse cancer, both of which obviously significantly dropped his value. The Dodgers may have gotten a steal, or they may get bit. Only time will tell. I thought he'd be worth a little more than that, but the "clubhouse cancer" label and the league-wide knowledge that he has to be traded put the selling team at a big disadvantage.

 

Meanwhile, Aramis has consistantly put up numbers and seems to be a good clubhouse guy. Add that to the notion that the Dodgers wanted to spend money, and I wouldn't have been surprised to see the Dodgers give up another good pitching prospect even after landing Hanley. They want Dee Gordan back in the minors to get his head straightened out, and having the dueling Ramirez's on the left side of the infield would be a really good excuse.

 

The Dodgers and maybe the Orioles were really our shot to get out of the heavily-backend-loaded contract of Ramirez. By not trading him now, Melvin may have assured he's a Brewer through the end of his contract. Much like the Cubs would do anything to get out of the Soriano deal, I could easily see us giving him away for nothing while eating a lot of his contract in 2014. The thought that we could get a Lee, Webster, Eovaldi type return had me salivating. The Marlins seem to like shooting themselves in the foot. Maybe we can work a deal with them this offseason.

[Ennder]

Ramirez is on his way to another 4 WAR year so if anything he is being underpaid right now.

 

I'd like to have seen Hart traded but oh well. To be honest he probably has more value in the off-season than right now anyway.

[502 to Right]

Doug Melvin has no interest in trading Corey Hart and Aramis Ramirez. They are playing 1B/RF and 3B for the Brewers in 2013. Anyone who thinks the Brewers are going to strip the team down and do a Cubs-style rebuilding are delusional.

 

Thank you for providing a definitive answer. Would someone who is just suggesting that it's in our best interest to trade Hart or Ramirez also be delusional or only those who think Melvin actually will trade them?

 

 

My comment was more directed at the post that suggested that Doug Melvin was looking at his phone on deadline day and wondering why it wasn't ringing.

 

If you think Melvin should be stripping the team down more power to you. But it's not going to happen.

[monty57]

Doug Melvin has no interest in trading Corey Hart and Aramis Ramirez. They are playing 1B/RF and 3B for the Brewers in 2013. Anyone who thinks the Brewers are going to strip the team down and do a Cubs-style rebuilding are delusional.

 

I've been called worse, but usually only by those who know me.

 

I agree that we will most likely see Hart & Ramirez on the 2013 Opening Day roster. I just think it's the wrong move and have tried to illustrate why.

 

Do you think it's the correct move to retain both of them, or do you just think that's what's going to happen? If you believe it's the correct move, then what will your 2014 roster look like? Or should we not think as far out as 2014, because of the all-too-familiar "that's a long way off and things will work themselves out?" If his season/offseason is not the correct time to trade someone like Hart and/or Ramirez, what would constitute a good time to trade someone?

[rluzinski]

Hart as a first basemen has a lot more value than Hart as a RF.

 

I find it hard to believe that he has "a lot more value" at 1B. It's a popular theory right now but the facts suggest otherwise.

 

Defensive studies show that the average defender gains no value by moving down the defensive spectrum. He typically plays better at that position but that performance is worth less at the easier position. Same effect from moving up the defensive spectrum. On average, it's a wash.

 

Hart's defensive skill set might make him a natural first basemen (and I believe that to be true myself), but I still don't think that results in anything but a modest gain in value. Defense at first base just isn't worth as much as at other positions. That why when you are trying to minimize the effects of having a poor defender in the lineup, you typically put him at 1B. It's the last stop before DH.

[monty57]

Ramirez is on his way to another 4 WAR year so if anything he is being underpaid right now.

 

Well yeah, he's making $6MM this year. Will he be underpaid when he's owed $20MM for his final year's service? That's why we could get something if we traded him now, but will not get anything if we just say "he's fine, lets keep him" and then try to trade him in the future. If we're not competitive in 2014, we will beg anyone and everyone to take him, and we'll even throw in a lot of money. Even better, we get to continue to pay for him for a few years after he's no longer playing for us. I'd bet a lot of people who are saying "he's worth it" now will be upset that he's eating up payroll then.

 

If you think Melvin should be stripping the team down more power to you. But it's not going to happen.

 

"Stripping the team down" sounds so derogatory. How about "getting younger and more talented?" "More exciting?" "Less expensive?" There are a lot of ways to build teams, and Melvin/Attanasio have decided their route would be to continually extend guys until they retire, patch holes with expensive free agents, and only play rookies when injuries demand it. I like extending pre-arby guys to extend their "team control" for a few more years while they're in their prime. I don't like guaranteeing loads of money to guys who are past their prime and regressing. People get older, it's not their fault. No one knows exactly when or how different players will regress, but it happens to everyone. Unfortunately in baseball, the contracts are guaranteed, which is why there are so many teams every year looking to dump players who a few years earlier they were elated to have signed to a "market value" deal.

 

Rather than simply dismissing this notion, please tell me your plan. I'd like to hear it. I promise I won't call you delusional or dismiss you with "ain't gonna happen."

[monty57]

I find it hard to believe that he has "a lot more value" at 1B. It's a popular theory right now but the facts suggest otherwise.

 

I agree on actual value to the team, but his price tag won't suffer by playing first. First basemen get paid a lot of money (see recent examples of Fielder, Votto and Pujols), so there's no hope that he'll be less expensive to extend because he's playing a "lesser" defensive position.

[torts]

Doug Melvin has no interest in trading Corey Hart and Aramis Ramirez. They are playing 1B/RF and 3B for the Brewers in 2013. Anyone who thinks the Brewers are going to strip the team down and do a Cubs-style rebuilding are delusional.

 

take the RF away from Hart, he's already said he is 100% fine with staying at 1B all the time. I love him at 1B, he's a beast. brewers are a couple pieces away from being a pretty good team next year, Hart at 1B is one of them

[Dollarbill13]

Well yeah, he's making $6MM this year. Will he be underpaid when he's owed $20MM for his final year's service? That's why we could get something if we traded him now, but will not get anything if we just say "he's fine, lets keep him" and then try to trade him in the future. If we're not competitive in 2014, we will beg anyone and everyone to take him, and we'll even throw in a lot of money. Even better, we get to continue to pay for him for a few years after he's no longer playing for us. I'd bet a lot of people who are saying "he's worth it" now will be upset that he's eating up payroll then.

 

If we traded Ramirez this offseason and ate $10M of his remaining contract, we would still have "profited" by paying only $16M for 5 WAR plus whatever package we'd receive in return. Let's say he puts up 3 WAR next year and we want to unload him before 2014. We could eat say $12M and have "profited" by paying $28M for 8 WAR. Ultimately, aside from the time value of money, it doesn't really matter what year a guy is scheduled to be paid. It's just about the total WAR that he produces vs. the total dollars that you pay him. Deferring payment just provides extra flexibility during the contract.

[RockCoCougars]

I'm not worried about Ramirez' contract. It's not like it looks like complete garbage like the Suppan deal did with 2 years left. As long as Ramirez is able to finish fairly strong and healthy, they could probably move him in the off season if their plans dictate it. 3B is a need position these days, and take a gander at the 3B that will be out there on the free agent market. The White Sox seem to have a surplus of pitchers (some quite expensive) and may have a hole at 3B (unless you buy into Morel). That could be one possibility.

[502 to Right]

I agree that we will most likely see Hart & Ramirez on the 2013 Opening Day roster. I just think it's the wrong move and have tried to illustrate why.

 

Do you think it's the correct move to retain both of them, or do you just think that's what's going to happen? If you believe it's the correct move, then what will your 2014 roster look like? Or should we not think as far out as 2014, because of the all-too-familiar "that's a long way off and things will work themselves out?" If his season/offseason is not the correct time to trade someone like Hart and/or Ramirez, what would constitute a good time to trade someone?

 

I think the best move is the keep Ramirez and Hart. Who plays 3B if Ramirez is moved? Cody Ransom? No thank you. Quality thirdbasemen are not easy to find and we happen to have one on the roster. RF/1B is much easier to fill but I don't think the trade return on Hart would exceed his value to the Brewers over the next two years.

 

I think the Brewers will be competitive in 2013 (perhaps I'm delusional). An important part of the 2013 puzzle is keeping Ramirez and Hart here. Neither contract is prohibitive.

 

As far as 2014, I don't see having Hart and Ramirez on the roster for 2012 makes 2014 a problem. It's not like they have albatross contracts like Jayson Werth or Carl Crawford.

[TooLiveBrew]

Hart isn't under contract for 2014.

[monty57]

Doug Melvin has no interest in trading Corey Hart and Aramis Ramirez. They are playing 1B/RF and 3B for the Brewers in 2013. Anyone who thinks the Brewers are going to strip the team down and do a Cubs-style rebuilding are delusional.

 

take the RF away from Hart, he's already said he is 100% fine with staying at 1B all the time. I love him at 1B, he's a beast. brewers are a couple pieces away from being a pretty good team next year, Hart at 1B is one of them

 

...and that is the optimism which Melvin and Attanasio hope permeates the fan base, spurring ticket sales. That is why Attanasio/Melvin will never trade anyone the fans know until there's no other option, even if it is in the long-term best interest of the team.

 

All we need is for all the guys who played above their heads this year to keep it up, for a couple of rookies hit the ground running and for everyone who had a down year to turn things around. Oh, and we need the more talented Reds, Cardinals and Pirates to have down years. It's baseball, so we could be a playoff team next year, but looking at where we stand now, the odds are against it.

 

We got good by going young & cheap, but now that we made it and the fans are showing up, we're being run in a way to maximize revenue/ticket sales while hoping we get lucky with performance and injuries and find ourselves in the playoffs, where anything can happen. Melvin/Attanasio are afraid that any trade of a known commodity will be seen as "stripping down the team in a Cubs-style rebuild" and will cause fans to revolt.

 

To me, the thought that trading Hart for a good MLB-ready player in a position of need and playing Gamel at 1B for $450,000 is a "Cubs-style rebuild" doesn't show a good understanding of what causes a team to get to the point where a "Cubs-style rebuild" is necessary.

[TooLiveBrew]

Here's a reaction from a Giants fan on another forum I frequent to the Giants trading for Pence:

 

"Yeah I'm loving the pence addition. Joseph might be solid but we've got posey so who cares. I'll miss nate schierholtz but realistically his game doesn't fit ATT at all and bochy only likes him in a platoon. Rosin is really nothing.

 

I'm hoping this means we let pagan go but can still resign melky [Cabrera]"

The bold/underline is my emphasis added.

 

I really think the vast majority of fans have the attitude about player value that I put in bold. And I think that basically aligns with monty57's note about: "that's a long way off and things will work themselves out".

 

If a player hasn't had success in the big leagues, there are fans who instantly dismiss any future value. I think that's probably always been & always will be the case. It's a combination of 'what have you done for me lately?' and tl;dr in my opinion.

[monty57]

Well yeah, he's making $6MM this year. Will he be underpaid when he's owed $20MM for his final year's service? That's why we could get something if we traded him now, but will not get anything if we just say "he's fine, lets keep him" and then try to trade him in the future. If we're not competitive in 2014, we will beg anyone and everyone to take him, and we'll even throw in a lot of money. Even better, we get to continue to pay for him for a few years after he's no longer playing for us. I'd bet a lot of people who are saying "he's worth it" now will be upset that he's eating up payroll then.

 

If we traded Ramirez this offseason and ate $10M of his remaining contract, we would still have "profited" by paying only $16M for 5 WAR plus whatever package we'd receive in return. Let's say he puts up 3 WAR next year and we want to unload him before 2014. We could eat say $12M and have "profited" by paying $28M for 8 WAR. Ultimately, aside from the time value of money, it doesn't really matter what year a guy is scheduled to be paid. It's just about the total WAR that he produces vs. the total dollars that you pay him. Deferring payment just provides extra flexibility during the contract.

 

After this season, we will owe Ramirez $30MM for two more years of service. After next year, we will owe him $20MM for one year of service. What we paid him in 2012 will no longer matter. It's history. I understand what you're saying, but as a business owner, I'd rather pay him now and claim a loss for the year (tax break) instead of looking at an estimated time value of money while having to claim a gain and pay taxes.

 

As to trade value, anyone we look as a trading partner will only care about what they'd owe going forward. From a spreadsheet, it may seem reasonable to say "we profited, so let's eat half his remaining contract," but when you're dishing out the money to get out of a contract, it still sucks. For the "casual fan," who seem to be of utmost importance in our team-building strategy, how does it look to trade away Ramirez and pick up half his salary? Would they say "we actually profited because he got us some extra wins in our pathetic 2012 season?"

 

In that light, looking at it from the spreadsheet view, do all wins weigh equally? I'd say that the "4-5 wins" he got us this year really didn't matter much at all, as we're going to end up well under .500. Therefore, since those "wins" are worth less, they should cost less. Meanwhile, paying him for a few seasons after he's gone could hamper us from adding a player who would put us over the edge and into the playoffs. Who knows, when you're talking "wins" you're talking theoretical. I'd say Braun brings more wins than Ramirez for less cost, and on a dollar-for-dollar basis, no one brings more wins than a good pre-arby guy like the ones I'd like to trade Hart and Ramirez for.

[502 to Right]

To those who wanted Ramirez traded, who is playing 3B for the Brewers in 2013 and 2014? Or do you not care because you'd prefer to punt the season away?