Mike Fiers - NL ROTY?

[The stache]

^^ the good old days.

 

Well, the argument was made that Braun and Fielder would split NL MVP votes, and that Kemp would get it. I think it comes down to the best performance, and two of the candidates being on the same team should have zero impact on the vote. If Fiers keeps winning, and keeps his ERA anywhere near where it is now, he has a good shot to win it.

[slappzilla]

I hope Fiers doesn't follow the Cal Eldred path...

[BCZF]

(shudder).. There are pieces of Eldreds arm that STILL arent screwed back in place

[brettac1]

Trout could win MVP and ROY the way he's going.

He should. He's the best player in the league. Just imagine what he'll be like when he hits his prime.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Trout could win MVP and ROY the way he's going.

He should. He's the best player in the league. Just imagine what he'll be like when he hits his prime.

 

 

I remember when people said that about Braun, when he was a rookie, having the best rookie season ever.

 

Trout is going to be an awesome player for a long time, but I think we have to be careful when projecting him to be even better. I'm not saying that he can't be, I'm just saying.....

[brettac1]

Trout could win MVP and ROY the way he's going.

He should. He's the best player in the league. Just imagine what he'll be like when he hits his prime.

 

 

I remember when people said that about Braun, when he was a rookie, having the best rookie season ever.

 

Trout is going to be an awesome player for a long time, but I think we have to be careful when projecting him to be even better. I'm not saying that he can't be, I'm just saying.....

Yeah, I was kind of joking. He's amazing and he's going to continue to be amazing barring anything unforeseen. And he's an elite defensive player at a premium position. I mean... 20 years old! 20!

[HiAndTight]

When I actually paid attention to Harper's basic stats over the weekend, I wasn't impressed after all the hype. How in the world was what he did in the 1st half remotely All-Star worthy?

 

I get it that he has huge potential and he's hardly overwhelmed in his 1st stint in the bigs. But he's also hardly overwhelming at this point. ROY for a guy hitting .261 w/ 9 HRs, only 29 RBIs in 80 games, a .338 OBP & a .768 OPS? Let's separate hype from performance. On that count, Fiers has been at least as good if not quite better.

 

....Of course, it's what the numbers look like at season's end that matters. It'll be interesting to see how this pans out.

 

 

He's amazing for his age and for what people pretty much assume he will become, ie, Brett Lawrie.

 

But based on production, give me a single argument for him being on the team over Hart for example(not that HE'S worthy of a All-Star spot per say as I didn't really pay that close of attention based on merit).

 

But his all-star selection was based on being Bryce Harper the name, and the potential obviously.

 

 

Which is what sorta has me questioning the Strausburg situation. I could see Harper being a Trout like player next year, but he's been miles away this year.

 

Come to think of it, even with is projections, he was suppose to be a very good RF'er who hit 40 HR's a year(80 Power) with some 50's sprinkled in if all goes right, and with his violent hack, maybe a .300 hitter who draws a lot of walks.

 

So a .300/.420/.600 hitter who's a very good RF'er.

 

I don't know, I'd still take Trout over him in CF. A guy who can steal 50-60 bags, play GG CF, can hit 25-30 HR's, hit .330-ish in some years(the type of years that Harper hits 50 HR's).

 

I still wholeheartedly believe that in 5 years the 5 best position prospects very well could be Trout(who could be ours and I'll never get over that), Harper, Profar, Lawrie and Tulo(might be older for the group, but I think he'll be a superstar still and a first ballot type guy at that point.

[HiAndTight]

I'm still a little bit in awe of how this season has gone. I speculated we needed a "Cal Eldred," type rookie performance to get into the playoffs this year(well, win the division).

 

We've gotten that and we STILL ended up a team 8 games under .500.

 

I suggested that Fiers MIGHT give us that Eldred experience just based on pure luck and then fade away kinda like Eldred did with a couple of decent seasons and then not much. I've revised my thoughts on that as he just might be the real deal. If Shawn Marcum can produce like he can with a 86-87 MPH fastball, then why can't Fiers do the same the way he hits the ball and with his secondary pitches which are as good as Marcum's. Nasty curve, nice cutter or 2 seamer..whatever it is, and a solid change.

 

His fastball hits 90-92 on it's best day, but is a plus fastball with how he throws it, how he hides it, spots it and how he keeps you off balance with it.

 

If he can get 10 more starts and finish with a 2.00 ERA that's 2/3rds of a season with an ERA under 2.00. Now at some point I'd expect the 4 IP 6 ER outing, but until I see it, he has to be at least in the discussion.

 

 

Aoki may deserve to be based on his play, but A-other teams don't see the small things he does, nor do the writers and he's a 30 year old. Unless a Japenese player comes over and REALLY dominates, or does it at a younger age like Yu, I think he really has to outperform the field to win it. Like Ichiro.

[HiAndTight]

Trout could win MVP and ROY the way he's going.

He should. He's the best player in the league. Just imagine what he'll be like when he hits his prime.

 

 

I remember when people said that about Braun, when he was a rookie, having the best rookie season ever.

 

Trout is going to be an awesome player for a long time, but I think we have to be careful when projecting him to be even better. I'm not saying that he can't be, I'm just saying.....

 

 

You do. It'd be hard for him to get much better. He's hit 19 Hr's and they were talking about him being a 25-30 HR a year guy. What if he ACTUALLY develops into a 45 a year HR hitter? Even 40. A guy who could challenge to be a 40/40 guy year in and year out, hit .330-350, steal 50-60 bases and is a gold glove CF'er.

 

Seriously? I want DNA tests done?

[topper09er]

Greatest rookie season of all time is the great but forgotten Benny Kauff in 1914: 667 PA, .370/.447/.534, 120 R, 95 RBI, 75 SB. If you go by advanced metrics, he had an amazing .491 wOBA!!! And on top of that, he as a plus-plus defender in centerfield, giving him a total of 11.1 fWAR. Shoeless Joe Jackson is in the running too, 10.9 fWAR in his rookie season. Kauff followed up his rookie season with another monster campaign (9.6 fWAR), so I doubt there is any player in history who had such a dominating first two years. After his rookie year he only played five and a half more season though, because he was banned from baseball for allegedly being involved in an car theft ring (despite an acquittal) and for having an undesirable character. One of my favorite forgotten players!

 

Kauff was in the federal league, not exactly the same as the NL or AL. He hit .357 during his 2 seasons leading the federal league in hitting but only .287 in the following 5 seasons with the NY Giants.

[trwi7]

but only .287 in the following 5 seasons with the NY Giants.

 

[sarcasm]What does football have to do with this?[/sarcasm]

[topper09er]

but only .287 in the following 5 seasons with the NY Giants.

 

[sarcasm]What does football have to do with this?[/sarcasm]

 

That was his completion percentage, but in the early days of the forward pass that was considered above average, as demonstrated by his 136 OPS+

[SRB]

Kauff was in the federal league, not exactly the same as the NL or AL. He hit .357 during his 2 seasons leading the federal league in hitting but only .287 in the following 5 seasons with the NY Giants.

So? It was a legit league with lots of quality players, including a number of Hall of Famers (and the best player in baseball at the time, Walter Johnson, almost switched over). Just because it didn't survive doesn't mean it was like AAA or something.

[topper09er]

286 - Played in the Federal League in 1914 and/or 1915

 

172 - Had previous major league experience

 

101 - Who had played in the majors before, ended their careers with the FL

 

71 - Played in the majors both before and after their FL sojourn

 

89 - Never played in the majors before or after their FL days

 

25 - Were FL rookies who later signed with major league Clubs

___________________________________________________

 

33% of the league were in the middle or the beginning of major league careers, not exactly an equal comp to the NL/AL. Why did Kauff's BA drop 70 points if the competition was equal?

[HiAndTight]

When I actually paid attention to Harper's basic stats over the weekend, I wasn't impressed after all the hype. How in the world was what he did in the 1st half remotely All-Star worthy?

 

It wasn't All-Star worthy. I'd say I haven't heard a prospect hyped this much since Gregg Jefferies. Remember him? I collected baseball cards for the first time back then, and if you got a 1989 Donruss Jefferies, your month was made. He turned out to be a good player, but hardly the super star he was made out to be.

 

This is, unfortunately, the ESPN generation. You have a lot of stupid people that get 100% of their sports news from ESPN, and accept whatever they're hyping as fact. ESPN knelt down, affixed their lips to Harper's buttocks early, and kept a constant supply of ChapStick on hand.

 

Now, I think what he's doing for an 18/19 year old is impressive. But All Star worthiness isn't graded differently because you're young. You have to produce, and there were players excluded from the NL squad that should have gone before Harper (Greinke for one, though I know pitchers and roster players are different).

 

Harper is going to be a stud one day. The guy can flat out crush the ball. But to watch ESPN, you'd think he was putting up Mike Trout numbers. He's not. Yet ESPN continues to rush Rachel Nichols out out to have a confab with Harper every time he farts, and Mike Trout, who is having arguably the greatest season ever by a true rookie, is getting overlooked.

 

With all due respect, I think it's absolutely ridiculous to attribute this to an "ESPN," thing.

 

ESPN hasn't been the one running the hype machine. You're talking about a kid who made his name in the area all star games, HR derby's hitting 500 foot HR's when he was 15, throwing in the mid 90's, graduated college a year early, and then went to a good Juco School and absolutely dominated older competition as what would have been his Sr year.

 

Scouts have talked repeatedly about how he's got 80 for power, 80 for arm, has good speed, should hit .300 or thereabout and is a very good defensive starter.

 

The hype for Harper was NOT THE result of ESPN. It'd be like saying the hype for LeBron was driven by ESPN.

 

IT's just getting irritating hearing about how ESPN is the bane of all of sports coverage and in this case, it's just insanely untrue. YOu want to blame someone, blame the scouts, baseball america, SI, the GM's, and on and on.

 

And ESPN didn't have anything to do with putting him on the All-Star team, he was voted on it.

 

HOWEVER, he is arguably be one of the biggets name in all of profressional sports right now given his age and the anticipation of his arrival.

 

Oh, and he put up numbers of;

.297/.392/.501/.894 with 17 HR's and 26 SB's in just over 100 games playing in HiA and DD as a 18 year old.

 

During which time BASEBALL AMERICA had him as the top prospect in all of baseball.

 

So again, how is this ESPN's doing? Because they're reporting on a story that people are extremely interested in? Well damn them! [sarcasm]Damn that for profit sports entertainment network!![/sarcasm]

For the record, Mike Trout...hasn't really gone under the radar.

 

 

Oh, and finally, lets not forget that he is playing in our Nations Capital in a city that hasn't seen a winner since 1933, and who as of now are the favorites to win the National League this year and matchup with the AL Favorites(TX IMO, but LAA is close....imagine Fox going wild over Harper and Trout in a WS matchup...I can see the Bird-Magic comps starting already).

[SRB]

33% of the league were in the middle or the beginning of major league careers, not exactly an equal comp to the NL/AL. Why did Kauff's BA drop 70 points if the competition was equal?

Who knows? That's why his first two seasons are an interesting baseball story. Why did Scott Podsednik start sucking? The question was greatest rookie season, not greatest career of all-time.

 

Your numbers just prove that the FL was a legitimate league. Or are you implying that every player that played in both FL and NL/AL had amazingly better numbers in the FL? Because that's simply not true.

[HiAndTight]

There's no hard set rule for setting an innings limit, but 30 innings increase from the previous year is generally a pretty good barometer.

 

I wouldn't push Fiers past 160 this year, especially with him presumably being a big part of your future now.

 

I would shut him down after rosters expand -- that would be about the time when I would expect him to hit 160. Then go ahead and let Peralta take over his spot for the rest of the season.

 

 

 

I'm starting to begin to buy more into Nolan Ryan and his philosophy on pitching.

 

No pitch counts, no inning limits, pitchers are responsible for telling coaches when they are tired, throwing 300 feet to get warmed up. I don't recall all the particulars, but he's of the belief that pitchers are going to get hurt, but us "babying," them as the old timers would say(I'd say trying to be smart with them) actutally leads to more injuries.

 

Anyway, I wouldn't mess with Fiers until he comes to the Brewers and says his shoulder or arm is starting to tire a little bit. Then fine. Wily, you're up. But when we're looking at how many innings he's pitched, we're only looking at minor league carer numbers. I'm guessing he added more innings in there pitching elsehwere each year(thoguh not certain).

[HiAndTight]

^^ the good old days.

 

Well, the argument was made that Braun and Fielder would split NL MVP votes, and that Kemp would get it. I think it comes down to the best performance, and two of the candidates being on the same team should have zero impact on the vote. If Fiers keeps winning, and keeps his ERA anywhere near where it is now, he has a good shot to win it.

 

 

I think this "split vote," thing doesn't come into play in baseball.

 

We're not talking about college football where LeMichael James gets as much play as Trent Richardson because sports writers cover REGIONS more than they cover all 120 FBS teams and where the SEC has an inherent advantage.

 

I reality, I don't see the Harper v Aoki argument. I do see the argument that Fiers should be in there. Aoki, like it or not, did play in a professional baseball league, and a well respected one and dominated in that league and is 30 years old.

 

I think writers will keep that in mind when comparing him to the 19 year old Harper.

[The stache]

 

With all due respect, I think it's absolutely ridiculous to attribute this to an "ESPN," thing.

 

ESPN hasn't been the one running the hype machine. You're talking about a kid who made his name in the area all star games, HR derby's hitting 500 foot HR's when he was 15, throwing in the mid 90's, graduated college a year early, and then went to a good Juco School and absolutely dominated older competition as what would have been his Sr year.

 

Scouts have talked repeatedly about how he's got 80 for power, 80 for arm, has good speed, should hit .300 or thereabout and is a very good defensive starter.

 

The hype for Harper was NOT THE result of ESPN.

 

It's hardly ridiculous at all if you think about it.

 

The majority of people that voted for Harper to go the All Star game haven't read a single scouting report on him, nor have they ever picked up a copy of Baseball America. The average baseball fan had no clue who he was until this season. But when ESPN started talking him up, they took notice. So on a small scale, yes, BBA hyped Harper. But it was ESPN that took the ball and ran with it.

 

ESPN is one of the biggest hype-builders out there. They did it with Tim Tebow, and he became a near national obsession. The same thing happened with Harper.

[The stache]

I reality, I don't see the Harper v Aoki argument. I do see the argument that Fiers should be in there. Aoki, like it or not, did play in a professional baseball league, and a well respected one and dominated in that league and is 30 years old.

 

I think writers will keep that in mind when comparing him to the 19 year old Harper.

 

Did they keep that in mind when they voted a 26 year old Hideo Nomo NL Rookie of the year in 1995?

Did they keep that in mind when they voted 27 year old Ichiro Suzuki AL Rookie of the Year in 2001?

 

Nori Aoki's age, and prior history in Japan will have zero impact on the Rookie of the Year. If he continues putting up good stats, he will get some votes. If he starts hitting the way he is capable, and improves his stats, he'll have a good chance to win it. Nobody is running away with the award in the NL like Trout is in the AL. Anybody can grab it with a solid last month and a half plus.

[endaround]

Yes they did. Yes if a Japanese player has an MVP type season he can win the award. But if he doesn't they lose vote by writers who flat out say they won't include Japanese players anywhere on their ballot for RoY.

[The stache]

Yes they did. Yes if a Japanese player has an MVP type season he can win the award. But if he doesn't they lose vote by writers who flat out say they won't include Japanese players anywhere on their ballot for RoY.

 

Hideo Nomo had an MVP-type season when he won the ROY? 13-6 is an MVP type season?

 

Show me a link to one single baseball writer who has gone on the record saying "I won't include a japanese player on my ballot for a major award." Please.

[The stache]

Let me get some further clarification, endaround. Are you saying they won't vote for him because he is Japanese, or because he previously played in Japan? And if they won't vote for somebody that has previously played in Japan, the level of their play here shouldn't matter. If they play at an MVP level, they would still not be eligible for the ROY.

[endaround]

They say they won't vote for him because he played in Japan. Jim Souhan's quote is right on the wikipedia page for MLB RoY. The level of play matters because if they run away with it the Souhan's of the world won't matter, but if its close they will be the deciding factor.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_League_Baseball_Rookie_of_the_Year_Award

 

And Nomo had a 2.54 ERA in the mid 90s. If it wasn't for Maddux's godly season that year he could have gotten the Cy Young. As it was he was one of the top 5 pitchers in the entire league that year.

[brettac1]

Harper was on the cover of SI before ESPN even knew who he was.