Mike Fiers - NL ROTY?

[StearnsFTW]

 

Ichiro won ROTY, and he was 27, Aoki is 30

 

He also won MVP, batted .350, and had a WAR of 6.1.

 

Aoki has a WAR of 1.1. Adjust that since I think his fielding is much better than the statistics are currently giving him credit for, and he might be a 2 WAR player by the end of the year. Very solid rookie season, but not a ROTY candidate in my opinion.

 

Fiers should be able to throw 35 more innings this year (I hope they cut him off between 155-160) and hopefully get to a WAR of around 3 which probably wont be enough given the head start Miley and Lynn have.

 

As a disclaimer, obviously I used WAR to compare these players while the voters most likely wont. I simply used it because it takes into account time played, position, and production...all of which voters will look at.

 

yeah, i know, his rookie year was pretty unreal. probably one of the best rookie seasons ever, IMO.

 

im just sayin, the only offensive rookies that are 1/2 that ive seen are Aoki and Harper, and if theres a case for Harper, theres a case for Aoki, too. doesnt really matter, NL ROTY is going to be blown away by the attention Trout will get with everything he's done this year. that kid is unreal.

 

 

It'd be pretty cool if Trout won MVP. Fred Lynn is the only other person to do that. His rookie year was better than both Pujols' and Ichiro's incidentally. Assuming you use OPS+ or WAR. Pujols and Lynn are pretty comparable, with Lynn having a slight edge IMO. Suzuki is not in the equation.

[torts]

Probably second best rookie season all time to Pujols.

 

they both won ROY in 2001, talk about an insane year... oh, and the year of Barroid Bonds, too!

[3and2Fastball]

Probably second best rookie season all time to Pujols.

 

Ted Williams says hello....

 

Williams in 1939

 

BA: .327

OBP: .436

SLG: .609

Hits: 185

HR: 31

RBI: 145 (led league)

Runs: 131

[3and2Fastball]

Fred Lynn had a 162 OPS+ in his rookie year, Pujols had a 157 OPS+, and Williams had a 160 OPS+

 

Williams' .436 OPB compared to Lynn's .401, and 145 RBI's compared to Lynn's 105, more than makes up for the 2 OPS+ points, in my opinion. Plus the 31-21 HR advantage

[torts]

Probably second best rookie season all time to Pujols.

 

Ted Williams says hello....

 

Williams in 1939

 

BA: .327

OBP: .436

SLG: .609

Hits: 185

HR: 31

RBI: 145 (led league)

Runs: 131

SB: 2

 

Pujols

 

BA - .327

OBP - .403

SLG - .610

Hits - 194

HR - 37

RBI - 130

RUN - 112

SB - 1

 

Ichiro

 

BA - .350

OBP - .381

SLG - .457

Hits - 242

HR - 8

RBI - 69

RUN - 127

SB - 56

 

 

I added SB since Ichiro was so insane on the basepaths...

[3and2Fastball]

I would say Babe Ruth's rookie season in 1915 was also better than Pujols/Lynn/Ichiro:

 

In 1915 Ruth went 18-8 with a 2.44 ERA while batting .315 with a 188 OPS+!

[TooLiveBrew]

Ichiro might have had the more exciting season, but Pujols's & Williams's seasons are clearly better imo.

[torts]

yeah i can see that

[endaround]

Aoki doesn't have a chance. Lots of writers won't vote for Japanese players for ROY supposedly because of their deep respect for the Japanese leagues.

[3and2Fastball]

While it is difficult to measure in stats, Johnny Bench's rookie year in 1968 as a 20 year old was pretty remarkable: he caught 154 games that year displaying extraordinary & revolutionary defense, throwing out 47% of base-runners while batting .275 with 15 HR's, 40 Doubles and 82 RBI's

[3and2Fastball]

Shoeless Joe Jackson in 1911: a .408 BA (!), 41 SB's, 193 OPS+, 45 Doubles, 19 Triples... wow

[3and2Fastball]

Tim Raines had 71 SB's in his rookie year, in 88 games! He also had a .304/.391 BA/OBP with a 135 OPS+

[nate82]

In '92 Pat Listach finished 18th for the MVP and won the ROY award but probably should not have won it. Kenny Lofton actually had a better year in '92 than Listach did. Fiers might actually be more like Cal Eldred where he finishes third (Eldred finished 5th in '92). Eldred in '92 went 11-2 with 100.1 IP, 0.987 WHIP, and a 1.79 ERA. Eldred also had 2 CG and 1 SHO that year. I think Fiers will get more IP than Eldred did as he is already more than half way there. Also Fiers stats are very similar to what Eldred did in '92 though Fiers has a considerably higher k/9 than Eldred did and Fiers is giving up about 0.6 more hits per 9 innings than Eldred did and their BB/9 are nearly identical Eldred was at 2.1 BB/9 while Fiers is at 2.2 BB/9. Eldred had a 0.987 WHIP while Fiers has a 1.061 WHIP for a difference of 0.074. I believe Eldred's '92 season is fairly comparable to Fiers current season and I believe Fiers will finish in the top 5 for the NL ROTY.

 

I think it is Wade Miley's award to lose though I wouldn't be all that surprised if Harper wins it by default. I don't believe Aoki will be even in the discussion with the writers for this award though he should be.

[SRB]

Greatest rookie season of all time is the great but forgotten Benny Kauff in 1914: 667 PA, .370/.447/.534, 120 R, 95 RBI, 75 SB. If you go by advanced metrics, he had an amazing .491 wOBA!!! And on top of that, he as a plus-plus defender in centerfield, giving him a total of 11.1 fWAR. Shoeless Joe Jackson is in the running too, 10.9 fWAR in his rookie season. Kauff followed up his rookie season with another monster campaign (9.6 fWAR), so I doubt there is any player in history who had such a dominating first two years. After his rookie year he only played five and a half more season though, because he was banned from baseball for allegedly being involved in an car theft ring (despite an acquittal) and for having an undesirable character. One of my favorite forgotten players!

 

But back on-topic, if Fiers keeps pitching like this and doesn't win RoY it will be absurd. Outside Trout, the only three rookies who have been as valuable as Fiers are Miley, Darvish and Lance Lynn (all four are around two and a half wins in terms of value). But they've pitched basically twice as many innings. In his limited playing time Fiers has been the best rookie in the NL, not even close.

[thebruce44]

Probably second best rookie season all time to Pujols.

 

Ted Williams says hello....

 

Williams in 1939

 

BA: .327

OBP: .436

SLG: .609

Hits: 185

HR: 31

RBI: 145 (led league)

Runs: 131

 

I'm assuming you are using the eye test since scouting reports and defensive metrics downgrade him so much.

[bork]

Fiers figures to get 12 more starts, so conceivably he could get to 140 innings. But he's going to have to be at least a half run lower in ERA than Miley who's on pace for around 190 innings. At 27, I don't think the Brewer are overly concerned about his innings.

 

If he throws 140 big league innings, thats on top of 55 minor league innings. He's never started for a full year and has never pitched more than 126 innings in a season. I don't think it's a good idea to throw 70 more innings, even if he is older.

[jerichoholicninja]

Aoki doesn't have a chance. Lots of writers won't vote for Japanese players for ROY supposedly because of their deep respect for the Japanese leagues.

 

Hideo Nomo, Kaz Sasaki and Ichiro respectfully disagree with you.

[torts]

Aoki doesn't have a chance. Lots of writers won't vote for Japanese players for ROY supposedly because of their deep respect for the Japanese leagues.

 

Hideo Nomo, Kaz Sasaki and Ichiro respectfully disagree with you.

 

Yeah, i mentioned them before, but apparently they didnt read that

[adambr2]

There's no hard set rule for setting an innings limit, but 30 innings increase from the previous year is generally a pretty good barometer.

 

I wouldn't push Fiers past 160 this year, especially with him presumably being a big part of your future now.

 

I would shut him down after rosters expand -- that would be about the time when I would expect him to hit 160. Then go ahead and let Peralta take over his spot for the rest of the season.

[Polish Falcons]

Right now I think the NL ROY candidates in order should be: 1) Wade Miley, 2) Mike Fiers, 3) Todd Frazier, 4) Nori Aoki, 5) Bryce Harper. Out of the 5 candidates Mike Fiers has been by far the most impressive, but that's only over 66 IP and 11 starts compared to Miley who has been solid all season long with 121 IP and 21 starts. If Fiers keeps this up for the rest of the year he should certainly be a lock for the award. The way Harper has been playing recently his name just barely belongs in the conversation, let alone receiving the award.

 

Trout in the AL by a mile although Cespedes and Will Middlebrooks are having ROY type years.

[homer]

Trout could win MVP and ROY the way he's going.

[The stache]

When I actually paid attention to Harper's basic stats over the weekend, I wasn't impressed after all the hype. How in the world was what he did in the 1st half remotely All-Star worthy?

 

It wasn't All-Star worthy. I'd say I haven't heard a prospect hyped this much since Gregg Jefferies. Remember him? I collected baseball cards for the first time back then, and if you got a 1989 Donruss Jefferies, your month was made. He turned out to be a good player, but hardly the super star he was made out to be.

 

This is, unfortunately, the ESPN generation. You have a lot of stupid people that get 100% of their sports news from ESPN, and accept whatever they're hyping as fact. ESPN knelt down, affixed their lips to Harper's buttocks early, and kept a constant supply of ChapStick on hand.

 

Now, I think what he's doing for an 18/19 year old is impressive. But All Star worthiness isn't graded differently because you're young. You have to produce, and there were players excluded from the NL squad that should have gone before Harper (Greinke for one, though I know pitchers and roster players are different).

 

Harper is going to be a stud one day. The guy can flat out crush the ball. But to watch ESPN, you'd think he was putting up Mike Trout numbers. He's not. Yet ESPN continues to rush Rachel Nichols out out to have a confab with Harper every time he farts, and Mike Trout, who is having arguably the greatest season ever by a true rookie, is getting overlooked.

[thebruce44]

There's no hard set rule for setting an innings limit, but 30 innings increase from the previous year is generally a pretty good barometer.

 

I wouldn't push Fiers past 160 this year, especially with him presumably being a big part of your future now.

 

I would shut him down after rosters expand -- that would be about the time when I would expect him to hit 160. Then go ahead and let Peralta take over his spot for the rest of the season.

 

This is essentially what I alluded to in my earlier post about where I thought he could be by the end of the year. I really hope our coaching staff doesn't push him in a lost year.

 

We are incredibly lucky to have found two cost controlled ROTY candidates in a year where we were going for it.

[clancyphile]

As for Harper:

1) He had an .826 OPS at the break, he's been horrible thus far in the 2nd half.

2) Everyone knows his name. If he finishes anywhere near an .800 OPS he will win ROY.

3) Aoki has a .770 OPS Harper has a .768. Saying Aoki has blown him away is a huge stretch..

4) Aoki is 30 years old and a batting champ from Japan, that will hurt his stock in a lot of voters minds I'd imagine, many won't even vote for him as a result.

5) Aoki plays in Milwaukee for a horrible team. Harper is on the "First Place Washington Nationals."

 

I want one of our guys to win it, but I just don't see them having a shot unless Harper gets benched.

 

The fact that both Fiers and Aoki are doing well makes it worse - the votes will split.

 

I see ROTY going Harper, Aoki, Fiers - just like `85 when Higuera and Riles finished 2-3 in the voting.

[torts]

remember when McGehee almost won ROTY....