Mike Fiers - NL ROTY?

[slappzilla]

too soon?

 

sample size not enough?

 

no way he keeps it up?

 

Can't contend with Bryce Harper or Wade Miley?

 

What do you guys think?

 

1.77ERA 1.06WHIP and striking out a batter per inning (67K in 66IP)

 

You keep hearing how the NL and AL ROTY awards are "locked up" with Trout and Harper, and while I do think Trout is a lock, I don't so much know about Harper.

 

One thing to keep him mind, whether it's right or wrong, voters seem to take into account wins and losses, and Fiers, like all the Milwaukee SP's, has been a multiple victim of the Brewers dodgy bullpen.

[splitterpfj]

Yes, it's too soon, etc, but if he keeps this up, he's got a great shot at it.

 

Harper got all the buzz, but he's cooled off considerably, and Fiers has been just plain amazing.

[torts]

yeah, I dont see how Harper can be a "lock" for ROTY... kid is good, but not run-away good like Trout has been.

 

I'd say Fiers is a strong candidate if he can keep up his level of success

[RockCoCougars]

I don't think that he will get enough wins to be considered (yes, I know that wins are a meaningless stat, but still). He could allow 1 run every start for the rest of the season and not get to 10 wins with this pen.

[torts]

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitching/_/position/rookie/order/false

 

but if you go to batting... Aoki is the top. so pitching is Wade Miley, but Aoki could be a sleeper...

 

Fiers has to pitch over 100+ innings I think before he'll get any real strong consideration.

[MNBrew]

When I actually paid attention to Harper's basic stats over the weekend, I wasn't impressed after all the hype. How in the world was what he did in the 1st half remotely All-Star worthy?

 

I get it that he has huge potential and he's hardly overwhelmed in his 1st stint in the bigs. But he's also hardly overwhelming at this point. ROY for a guy hitting .261 w/ 9 HRs, only 29 RBIs in 80 games, a .338 OBP & a .768 OPS? Let's separate hype from performance. On that count, Fiers has been at least as good if not quite better.

 

....Of course, it's what the numbers look like at season's end that matters. It'll be interesting to see how this pans out.

[torts]

more I think about it, Aoki really could be the NL ROTY before Fiers. I really like the idea of that! I for one am a huge Aoki fan!

[slappzilla]

Awesome point about Aoki!

 

Brewers have two possible ROTY's on their roster!

 

and yet they had to sell at the deadline.

[1992casey]

slapzilla, I removed "F$#@#@$ bullpen" from your post above. Check out FFE:

 

What kind of language is not allowed? …

 

Do not use acronyms, abbreviations or creative spelling to avoid the cuss filter. This includes replacing letters in cuss words with characters or spaces. As an example, the use of "BS" is not allowed when intended to stand for a cuss word ("what a load of BS"), but is allowed when intended to stand for non-cusses (Ben Sheets, blown save, bachelor of science, etc.).

[Ennder]

Awesome point about Aoki!

 

Brewers have two possible ROTY's on their roster!

 

and yet they had to sell at the deadline.

 

Not to mention a legit candidate for MVP and the pitcher they traded could have worked his way into the CY race with a good final 2 months.

[TooLiveBrew]

Interesting, I hadn't even thought about Aoki in that context. Brainfart.

 

If Fiers can sustain success throughout August & September, I think he'll be hard to ignore... so I think torts's point on the sample size is really important.

 

This obviously isn't a perfect way to think about it, but even if he 'only' tosses a 4.20 ERA over two more full months (I used 5 starts/mo., 6 IP/start), his season ERA would be 2.93 over 126 IP. He might not be able to overcome the fact that everyone knows the name Bryce Harper, but he'd have a legit shot.

[slappzilla]

Awesome point about Aoki!

 

Brewers have two possible ROTY's on their roster!

 

and yet they had to sell at the deadline.

 

Not to mention a legit candidate for MVP and the pitcher they traded could have worked his way into the CY race with a good final 2 months.

jeeze, that makes it even harder.

 

sorry for expletive.

[trwi7]

I don't consider Aoki a rookie even though he technically is.

[torts]

Aoki is second in all of MLB rookies in batting to Trout, who is going to run away with the ROTY in the AL. so lets all hope Wade implodes!!!! Aoki really has a shot!

[torts]

I don't consider Aoki a rookie even though he technically is.

 

Ichiro won ROTY, and he was 27, Aoki is 30

[bork]

I don't see how Fiers will get enough innings to be considered, unless the Brewers aren't concerned with him increasing his innings by 60+ over last year. He's almost matched his innings from last year already.

[Baldkin]

As for Harper:

1) He had an .826 OPS at the break, he's been horrible thus far in the 2nd half.

2) Everyone knows his name. If he finishes anywhere near an .800 OPS he will win ROY.

3) Aoki has a .770 OPS Harper has a .768. Saying Aoki has blown him away is a huge stretch..

4) Aoki is 30 years old and a batting champ from Japan, that will hurt his stock in a lot of voters minds I'd imagine, many won't even vote for him as a result.

5) Aoki plays in Milwaukee for a horrible team. Harper is on the "First Place Washington Nationals."

 

I want one of our guys to win it, but I just don't see them having a shot unless Harper gets benched.

[torts]

As for Harper:

1) He had an .826 OPS at the break, he's been horrible thus far in the 2nd half.

2) Everyone knows his name. If he finishes anywhere near an .800 OPS he will win ROY.

3) Aoki has a .770 OPS Harper has a .768. Saying Aoki has blown him away is a huge stretch..

4) Aoki is 30 years old and a batting champ from Japan, that will hurt his stock in a lot of voters minds I'd imagine, many won't even vote for him as a result.

5) Aoki plays in Milwaukee for a horrible team. Harper is on the "First Place Washington Nationals."

 

I want one of our guys to win it, but I just don't see them having a shot unless Harper gets benched.

 

I think Aoki's age and where he came from have little to do with it. Nomo won in 1995 at age 27, Ichiro won at age 27, Sasaki won in 2000 at age 32.

[thebruce44]

I don't consider Aoki a rookie even though he technically is.

 

Ichiro won ROTY, and he was 27, Aoki is 30

 

He also won MVP, batted .350, and had a WAR of 6.1.

 

Aoki has a WAR of 1.1. Adjust that since I think his fielding is much better than the statistics are currently giving him credit for, and he might be a 2 WAR player by the end of the year. Very solid rookie season, but not a ROTY candidate in my opinion.

 

Fiers should be able to throw 35 more innings this year (I hope they cut him off between 155-160) and hopefully get to a WAR of around 3 which probably wont be enough given the head start Miley and Lynn have.

 

As a disclaimer, obviously I used WAR to compare these players while the voters most likely wont. I simply used it because it takes into account time played, position, and production...all of which voters will look at.

[JohnBriggs12]

Fiers figures to get 12 more starts, so conceivably he could get to 140 innings. But he's going to have to be at least a half run lower in ERA than Miley who's on pace for around 190 innings. At 27, I don't think the Brewer are overly concerned about his innings. To be considered, I'd think Aoki needs to have enough AB's to qualify for batting title and have a BA of close to .300.

[torts]

I don't consider Aoki a rookie even though he technically is.

 

Ichiro won ROTY, and he was 27, Aoki is 30

 

He also won MVP, batted .350, and had a WAR of 6.1.

 

Aoki has a WAR of 1.1. Adjust that since I think his fielding is much better than the statistics are currently giving him credit for, and he might be a 2 WAR player by the end of the year. Very solid rookie season, but not a ROTY candidate in my opinion.

 

Fiers should be able to throw 35 more innings this year (I hope they cut him off between 155-160) and hopefully get to a WAR of around 3 which probably wont be enough given the head start Miley and Lynn have.

 

As a disclaimer, obviously I used WAR to compare these players while the voters most likely wont. I simply used it because it takes into account time played, position, and production...all of which voters will look at.

 

yeah, i know, his rookie year was pretty unreal. probably one of the best rookie seasons ever, IMO.

 

im just sayin, the only offensive rookies that are 1/2 that ive seen are Aoki and Harper, and if theres a case for Harper, theres a case for Aoki, too. doesnt really matter, NL ROTY is going to be blown away by the attention Trout will get with everything he's done this year. that kid is unreal.

[Funketown]

Todd Frazier of the Reds has also been a bit better than Harper, albeit in a bit less playing time. As of right now I Miley deserves the award, he's had an outstanding rookie season, and will probably end up with ~60 more IP than Fiers. If Fiers can keep his ERA below 2.00 and finish with ~110-120 IP, I'll be surprised and willing to argue that he deserves the NL ROY.

[3and2Fastball]

When I actually paid attention to Harper's basic stats over the weekend, I wasn't impressed after all the hype. How in the world was what he did in the 1st half remotely All-Star worthy?

.

 

The East Coast media bias extended a little south from New York City

[thebruce44]

 

Ichiro won ROTY, and he was 27, Aoki is 30

 

He also won MVP, batted .350, and had a WAR of 6.1.

 

Aoki has a WAR of 1.1. Adjust that since I think his fielding is much better than the statistics are currently giving him credit for, and he might be a 2 WAR player by the end of the year. Very solid rookie season, but not a ROTY candidate in my opinion.

 

Fiers should be able to throw 35 more innings this year (I hope they cut him off between 155-160) and hopefully get to a WAR of around 3 which probably wont be enough given the head start Miley and Lynn have.

 

As a disclaimer, obviously I used WAR to compare these players while the voters most likely wont. I simply used it because it takes into account time played, position, and production...all of which voters will look at.

 

yeah, i know, his rookie year was pretty unreal. probably one of the best rookie seasons ever, IMO.

 

im just sayin, the only offensive rookies that are 1/2 that ive seen are Aoki and Harper, and if theres a case for Harper, theres a case for Aoki, too. doesnt really matter, NL ROTY is going to be blown away by the attention Trout will get with everything he's done this year. that kid is unreal.

 

Probably second best rookie season all time to Pujols.

[TooLiveBrew]

When I actually paid attention to Harper's basic stats over the weekend, I wasn't impressed after all the hype. How in the world was what he did in the 1st half remotely All-Star worthy?

.

The East Coast media bias extended a little south from New York City

To be fair, part of it too is due to him being a mega-prospect, along with him doing what he's done in the bigs so far as a 19yo. It's not necessarily just bias.

 

EDIT: He was an injury replacement too... am I correct in remembering that those are picked by the manager? If that's true that means if there was any bias, it was TLR being impressed with Harper.