Go After Cliff Lee?

[MNBrew]

I'd do that deal, take his whole contract in order to give up less, and not think twice about it.

 

Yes, I'm serious, and no, I'm not on drugs.

 

The contract's not much more than they were already willing to pay Greinke, and it's only a 3-year commitment as opposed to a 5-6 year deal. Major rotation upgrade, creates a smaller but safer cushion for strong prospect SPs to develop. May bump Estrada to the 'pen, which also strengthens another area at no addition cost.

[TooLiveBrew]

I can see the angle you're coming from MNBrew. I don't think Lee is a 4-ish ERA type pitcher going forward, but I personally wouldn't gamble the $90M or so he's still guaranteed on it. Four of his last five starts have been very good, and I think he'll wind up getting dealt to a big-money contender like the Yankees.

[trwi7]

Lee is going to turn 34 in a month. I can't see any team taking his whole salary and hoping he will still be productive when he's 36.

[PrinceEatMeat]

We absolutely would have the prospects to trade for Lee, but I agree with you that it's not a good idea.

 

Ok, we may have the prospects. Better wording would be that I don't think we can afford to, nor should we, give them up for Cliff Lee and that contract.

[DHonks]

I'd happily trade for Lee, but the Phillies need to make that contract palatable.

Let's forget about current signed players getting raises. We clear $8 million when K-Rod is gone, $9 million Wolf, Greinke $13.5 million, and a slew of guys making around $2 million could go, including Gomez, Morgan, Loe, Veras, etc. Without dealing part of the core, that's potentially around $35 million trimmed from the 2012 to 2013 payroll. Of course, I know others are making more money, but it would be possible to fit Lee into the current salary structure.

[splitterpfj]

I hope some team puts a claim in on Lee, I wonder what the Phillies would do.

[TooLiveBrew]

I hope some team puts a claim in on Lee, I wonder what the Phillies would do.

It'll be interesting to see. He's pitched well lately, and combine that with the big salary & limited prospect return they'd likely get due to it, and my gut instinct says they wind up keeping him.

[PrinceEatMeat]

I think they'd pull him back if he got claimed. He still has a lot of value. They could get something for him if they just kick in money. Gotta think they'd rather do that then just let him go, and get nothing in return.

[slappzilla]

We don't have what it would take in the minors to get him

or the budget to take on the rest of his contract and still put out a team that can compete.

[igor67]

That tail end of the contract is the number I have a bigger concern about. Otherwise I'd have made the waiver claim and hoped to snag him at cost ( at which point he is basically a FA signing without losing draft picks). On the trade front I'm not sure it makes a lot of sense, but maybe there is an interesting balance point where the Phillies pay enough salary to make it worth some modest talent. I just don't think that makes that much sense on their end. They definitely trapped themselves in on some big contracts to old players who suddenly got old, but they still have a lot of talent worth the money too.

[slappzilla]

I read on twitter as the trade deadline approached that the Phillies were refusing to absorb any $$$ of his contract. Not sure if that's changed or not, just saying.

[PrinceEatMeat]

If that hasn't changed then Cliff Lee isn't going anywhere. There's no way they'll get someone to take on that entire contract, and also give up the prospects they want in return.

[Wanderoos24]

According to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports someone has claimed him off of waivers. I don't think he is going anywhere, he has the ability to block trades to 21 teams.

[PrinceEatMeat]

I'm guessing it was either the Rangers, or the Angles trying to block him from going to the Rangers.

[endaround]

He can block a trade but he can't block a release

[PrinceEatMeat]

Apparently it was the Dodgers, and a trade isn't likely. And he can block being let go to the team as well. I read that somewhere.

[HiAndTight]

Before I get laughed out of the room, hear me out... he signed a 5/120 before the 2011 season, so he has roughly 3 years and $72 million left on this deal. That is a BIG chunk of change, but less risky than a 5/110 deal or whatever it would have taken (in a best case scenario) to get Greinke. Lee would be with us for the 2013, 2014, and 2015 seasons. (I believe we have Yovanni during that window?)

 

Is Lee the same type of diffence maker as Greinke? If the answer is yes, would you sign Greinke to a 3/72 deal?

 

Would it be cheaper to aquire Lee (in terms of prospects), than trying to trade for a proven/#1-2 type starter who is pre-arby or early arby? If we could trade Hart and Ramirez for some prospects, could those prospects be enough to net Lee?

 

I sincerely do not believe that 3 years and 72 million of Lee is better than 5 years and 110(and It would likely have been about 115) for Greinke. I would rather take Greinke. At the end of those 5 years Greinke would be about the age of Lee right now.

 

But when you NOW throw in the 12.5 million dollar option year, then it just becomes too much and just simply not worth it. You're talking 3 years and almost 86 million guaranteed to Lee..Which is why paying what it'd take to get Greinke would be even more worth it. Or hell, James Shields.

 

I think if Zack Greinke came back to Milwaukee(which I am NOT ruling out as he is a sophisticated player and you can already write off a LOT of the big market teams(NYY, NYM, Philly, CHW) and I don't see the Cubs spending the money they'd need to on Greinke when they're so far away, I'm curious if the Red Sox would shy away given his history of anxiety issues(which I personally dismiss, but others don't seem to).

 

So at the end of the day, when you go through the divisions;

AL East-I think the only teams that MIGHT go after him(meaning it'd make sense and COULD afford it are; Toronto-great-great young lineup and great farm system and Baltimore, very talented team PO contender in the NLC IMO and if they finish with 85 or so wins this year and with Machado and Bundy on their way up, they may look at Greinke as the player to get them into the playoff now that you can fnish 3rd in that division and make it). Both are teams we could spend with though. Angelos sporadically spends..or rather TRIES to spend big money. Don't know what AA's thoughts would be in Toronto.

 

NLC-Detroit

They're a darkhorse team that can't afford it given their bottom line and long term commitments, but they probably couldn't have afforded Prince. They want to win NOW with their older owner.

Kansas City is a team that's been rumored with him in free agency. I think we could match them, and I believe someone as astute as him would look at the two teams and see us as being a better team with him.

No other teams.

AL West-

Likely none. Seattle has pitching, they need hitting and aren't likely to spend big.

Texas has Josh Hamilton who's likely to get 200 million and likely from Texas as I think they'll overspend for him.

LAA-They don't want to pay the luxury tax just like the Yankees, Phillies and Red Sox don't want to...which is the genius of Bud Selig. He set the bar a long time ago and had a progressive penalty so teams could prepare for it and now teams can't just spend limitless amounts of money. Now if a team like the Angels want to sign him, they may pay him 6/140, and it might cost them 6/200 or whatever the case may be.

 

NLC-

Milwaukee-We're in a much stronger financial situation than people who are intent on and get stuck on market size IMO. We've done very well the last couple years, we're likely to do BETTER this year, and we're getting a significant influx in revenue next year from a new tv deal, radio deal(though how significant the radio deal is, the TV deal will add more than 20 million in additional revenue to a team that was at 106 and talking about being buyers if they were contending. Now we're losing 40/50 million and I think of the three scenario's, the sign Greinke long term and he stays healthy, I actually think that's the only one that's going to keep us in a position to win the next 4-5 years and be a perennial contender.

 

And I believe Greinke will look at this team, a team that obviously underachieved a great deal, a city he honestly enjoyed playing in, the close relationship with Melvin, and the fact that we'll have a slew of talented young pitchers coming up, Segura at SS and that our BP can't possibly be as bad as it was and he'll see the potential to contend. And when you break it down, if you throw in a Rogers/Peralta/Thornburg/Fiers, two of those guys into the rotation, you save a significant amount of money from what this years rotation cost. Greinke 13.5/Wolf 10/Marcum 8.5 to Greinke 23 lets say+Fiers 450K+Rogers or whoever 450K. Gallardo will get a bump and I didn't bother to look at it, but it's not 8.5 million. The pen you're in the same situation, Henderson looks like a legit middle reliever, Axford should bounce back, K-Rod may well be back on a one year inventive laden deal and you've got a lot of power arms in AAA/AA and HiA who could figure in shortly.

And offensively, Greinke knows this team.

Weeks will almost certainly be the playler he's been for the last two months, Gomez is showing signs of becoming a pretty significant player with the upside to be a monster(though nobody should or would count on it). And between Corey, Aram, Braun you know you should get 100 HR's, .300 RBI's and close to a .300 BA in the middle of the order. Lucroy is one of the best hitting catchers in the NL and Maldy is one of the best backup's.

 

And you throw in Segura over Izturis and the other crap and a guy like Mr. Greinke could big very big for us.

---I don't see another team signing him in this division. The Cubs are trying to dump Garza. Why not just re-sign him.

Houston is so far away, the Brook Central HS team is closer to competing than the Astro's.

STL simply doesn't need to with Miller and Martinez to go with Garcia/Carp who'll be back/Waino/Lohse, Kelly and whatever average minor leaguer pitches like Mike Fiers has(we get one, they get one of him a year it seems like).

 

NL East-

Wash-Rotation in locked and loaded

ATL-Never spend and they've got young arms.

Philly-Looking to ship Lee to stay under luxury tax.

Miami-Already blew their wad and are cutting costs again.

NYM-MAYBE...MAYBE they look at their team and figure Santana/Dickey/Greinke/Harvey/Niese and or Wheeler are enough to contend. Not sure where they're at fiscally though. They also had to address Wright soon.

 

NL West-

The ONLY team out here that has a chance to me and is a strong contender is LA. Management will spend money, but they have Ethier they have to pony up for as well as a few extensions, but with that lineup, Kershaw/Greinke/Billingsley they'd be very good.

 

 

So I really think it'll come down to the Dodgers-Who would be putting themselves up against the luxury tax likely if they choose to re-sign Ethier which is likely.

 

And then teams I believe we'll be able to compete with UNLESS the Rangers lose the WS again and decide just to go for it with all their new revenue. But you're talking about spending potentially the 250 Hamilton has been rumored to get and if you add in Greinke, that's nearly 400 million for two players, one a pitcher(always risk involved) and another a guy with drug issues and serious health concerns in terms of being a durable every day player).

Then Baltimore, Seattle, Toronto, KC....

 

 

Someone tell me if they think I'm crazy, but I honestly don't see the 6 year 144 million dollar market for Greinke when you look at the traditional power houses having either spent a ton last year, or being worried about getting dinged for the luxury tax and a significant hit if they signed someone like Greinke.

 

I think he goes on the market, and I think if the Brewers are willing to go 5 years 115 with a 6th year vesting option...say 500 innings the last 3 years or 850 innings the life of the deal or a mutual option with a 6 million dollar buyout..whatever with the 6th year being for 25 million and you're looking at 6 years 140 potentially with 5 years and 120 guaranteed...and I think in the end just given the landscape, unless a team like Toronto throws out crazy money(and he's smart enough to know about the huge tax difference) or a team that thinks they need that vet to lead their young guys who are on the cusp like KC...I honestly think we're a realistic contender, UNLIKE when we knew that the Yankees where ABSOLUTELY going to get CC and would pay whatever it took to get him.

 

Thoughts....

[HiAndTight]

We don't have what it would take in the minors to get him

or the budget to take on the rest of his contract and still put out a team that can compete.

 

 

 

Sure we do. There isn't any question whatsoever that we do.

 

You're freeing up a lot of money, you've got a lot of new revenue coming in next year, and the money you'd be spending for Lee+a Fiers, Thornburg, Peralta, Narveson or whoever would be cheaper than Greinke and Wolf, forgetting about Marcum. Our rotation with Lee could easily be better next year and cheaper next year than it was this year.

 

There is this mentality out there that we're still a 90 million dollar payroll type team when in fact where much closer to 110-115...especially next season.

 

Moving forward it depends in part on how we draw, but if you add an ace pitcher, we should be a competitive team and should draw very well.

 

I didn't even mention Mark Rogers who in ONE start, so I'm not getting too excited, but looked like he had an exploding fastball and nasty secondary stuff. Fiers, Rogers and Thornburg with guys like Axford, Henderson, Hellweg, Pena, and even a Grant Balfour type signing for 2 years and 9 million would still have us spending less on our rotation than last year by a significant margin.

[Raw Biz]

Before I get laughed out of the room, hear me out... he signed a 5/120 before the 2011 season, so he has roughly 3 years and $72 million left on this deal. That is a BIG chunk of change, but less risky than a 5/110 deal or whatever it would have taken (in a best case scenario) to get Greinke. Lee would be with us for the 2013, 2014, and 2015 seasons. (I believe we have Yovanni during that window?)

 

Is Lee the same type of diffence maker as Greinke? If the answer is yes, would you sign Greinke to a 3/72 deal?

 

Would it be cheaper to aquire Lee (in terms of prospects), than trying to trade for a proven/#1-2 type starter who is pre-arby or early arby? If we could trade Hart and Ramirez for some prospects, could those prospects be enough to net Lee?

 

I sincerely do not believe that 3 years and 72 million of Lee is better than 5 years and 110(and It would likely have been about 115) for Greinke. I would rather take Greinke. At the end of those 5 years Greinke would be about the age of Lee right now.

 

But when you NOW throw in the 12.5 million dollar option year, then it just becomes too much and just simply not worth it. You're talking 3 years and almost 86 million guaranteed to Lee..Which is why paying what it'd take to get Greinke would be even more worth it. Or hell, James Shields.

 

I think if Zack Greinke came back to Milwaukee(which I am NOT ruling out as he is a sophisticated player and you can already write off a LOT of the big market teams(NYY, NYM, Philly, CHW) and I don't see the Cubs spending the money they'd need to on Greinke when they're so far away, I'm curious if the Red Sox would shy away given his history of anxiety issues(which I personally dismiss, but others don't seem to).

 

So at the end of the day, when you go through the divisions;

AL East-I think the only teams that MIGHT go after him(meaning it'd make sense and COULD afford it are; Toronto-great-great young lineup and great farm system and Baltimore, very talented team PO contender in the NLC IMO and if they finish with 85 or so wins this year and with Machado and Bundy on their way up, they may look at Greinke as the player to get them into the playoff now that you can fnish 3rd in that division and make it). Both are teams we could spend with though. Angelos sporadically spends..or rather TRIES to spend big money. Don't know what AA's thoughts would be in Toronto.

 

NLC-Detroit

They're a darkhorse team that can't afford it given their bottom line and long term commitments, but they probably couldn't have afforded Prince. They want to win NOW with their older owner.

Kansas City is a team that's been rumored with him in free agency. I think we could match them, and I believe someone as astute as him would look at the two teams and see us as being a better team with him.

No other teams.

AL West-

Likely none. Seattle has pitching, they need hitting and aren't likely to spend big.

Texas has Josh Hamilton who's likely to get 200 million and likely from Texas as I think they'll overspend for him.

LAA-They don't want to pay the luxury tax just like the Yankees, Phillies and Red Sox don't want to...which is the genius of Bud Selig. He set the bar a long time ago and had a progressive penalty so teams could prepare for it and now teams can't just spend limitless amounts of money. Now if a team like the Angels want to sign him, they may pay him 6/140, and it might cost them 6/200 or whatever the case may be.

 

NLC-

Milwaukee-We're in a much stronger financial situation than people who are intent on and get stuck on market size IMO. We've done very well the last couple years, we're likely to do BETTER this year, and we're getting a significant influx in revenue next year from a new tv deal, radio deal(though how significant the radio deal is, the TV deal will add more than 20 million in additional revenue to a team that was at 106 and talking about being buyers if they were contending. Now we're losing 40/50 million and I think of the three scenario's, the sign Greinke long term and he stays healthy, I actually think that's the only one that's going to keep us in a position to win the next 4-5 years and be a perennial contender.

 

And I believe Greinke will look at this team, a team that obviously underachieved a great deal, a city he honestly enjoyed playing in, the close relationship with Melvin, and the fact that we'll have a slew of talented young pitchers coming up, Segura at SS and that our BP can't possibly be as bad as it was and he'll see the potential to contend. And when you break it down, if you throw in a Rogers/Peralta/Thornburg/Fiers, two of those guys into the rotation, you save a significant amount of money from what this years rotation cost. Greinke 13.5/Wolf 10/Marcum 8.5 to Greinke 23 lets say+Fiers 450K+Rogers or whoever 450K. Gallardo will get a bump and I didn't bother to look at it, but it's not 8.5 million. The pen you're in the same situation, Henderson looks like a legit middle reliever, Axford should bounce back, K-Rod may well be back on a one year inventive laden deal and you've got a lot of power arms in AAA/AA and HiA who could figure in shortly.

And offensively, Greinke knows this team.

Weeks will almost certainly be the playler he's been for the last two months, Gomez is showing signs of becoming a pretty significant player with the upside to be a monster(though nobody should or would count on it). And between Corey, Aram, Braun you know you should get 100 HR's, .300 RBI's and close to a .300 BA in the middle of the order. Lucroy is one of the best hitting catchers in the NL and Maldy is one of the best backup's.

 

And you throw in Segura over Izturis and the other crap and a guy like Mr. Greinke could big very big for us.

---I don't see another team signing him in this division. The Cubs are trying to dump Garza. Why not just re-sign him.

Houston is so far away, the Brook Central HS team is closer to competing than the Astro's.

STL simply doesn't need to with Miller and Martinez to go with Garcia/Carp who'll be back/Waino/Lohse, Kelly and whatever average minor leaguer pitches like Mike Fiers has(we get one, they get one of him a year it seems like).

 

NL East-

Wash-Rotation in locked and loaded

ATL-Never spend and they've got young arms.

Philly-Looking to ship Lee to stay under luxury tax.

Miami-Already blew their wad and are cutting costs again.

NYM-MAYBE...MAYBE they look at their team and figure Santana/Dickey/Greinke/Harvey/Niese and or Wheeler are enough to contend. Not sure where they're at fiscally though. They also had to address Wright soon.

 

NL West-

The ONLY team out here that has a chance to me and is a strong contender is LA. Management will spend money, but they have Ethier they have to pony up for as well as a few extensions, but with that lineup, Kershaw/Greinke/Billingsley they'd be very good.

 

 

So I really think it'll come down to the Dodgers-Who would be putting themselves up against the luxury tax likely if they choose to re-sign Ethier which is likely.

 

And then teams I believe we'll be able to compete with UNLESS the Rangers lose the WS again and decide just to go for it with all their new revenue. But you're talking about spending potentially the 250 Hamilton has been rumored to get and if you add in Greinke, that's nearly 400 million for two players, one a pitcher(always risk involved) and another a guy with drug issues and serious health concerns in terms of being a durable every day player).

Then Baltimore, Seattle, Toronto, KC....

 

 

Someone tell me if they think I'm crazy, but I honestly don't see the 6 year 144 million dollar market for Greinke when you look at the traditional power houses having either spent a ton last year, or being worried about getting dinged for the luxury tax and a significant hit if they signed someone like Greinke.

 

I think he goes on the market, and I think if the Brewers are willing to go 5 years 115 with a 6th year vesting option...say 500 innings the last 3 years or 850 innings the life of the deal or a mutual option with a 6 million dollar buyout..whatever with the 6th year being for 25 million and you're looking at 6 years 140 potentially with 5 years and 120 guaranteed...and I think in the end just given the landscape, unless a team like Toronto throws out crazy money(and he's smart enough to know about the huge tax difference) or a team that thinks they need that vet to lead their young guys who are on the cusp like KC...I honestly think we're a realistic contender, UNLIKE when we knew that the Yankees where ABSOLUTELY going to get CC and would pay whatever it took to get him.

 

Thoughts....

 

TL;DR

[RockCoCougars]

If a team- any team, is willing to take on Lee's contract, you had better believe that they (most likely along with others) will be waiting to outbid the Brewers for ZG's services come December.

[brettac1]

Where did the idea that the Brewers are a $115 million payroll team come from?

[slappzilla]

^ I don't know. I argued it to nausea in the Greinke thread. No one realizes the Brewers are still a small market team. People think that throwing Greinke the sort of money that Hamels got is completely doable.

 

I've said it a dozen times and I will say it again, this years $96M payroll was an over-budget payroll. Melvin said it himself. Last year with Marcum and Greinke so they had to go for it, which is why they signed Aramis to what they did (and due to the assumption that Braun would miss 50 games). When they offered KRod arb, they assumed he'd turn it down and the crew would get the draft pick, but KRod didn't turn it down and that pushed the payroll way higher than Melvin or Attanasio wanted it. Next year the Brewers aren't looking like the contenders they looked to be this year, so no freaking way do the Brewers even come close to overspending next year in the same manner.

 

edit: I started a thread on the topic, since it's talked about in so many different threads

 

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