Go After Cliff Lee?

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

Before I get laughed out of the room, hear me out... he signed a 5/120 before the 2011 season, so he has roughly 3 years and $72 million left on this deal. That is a BIG chunk of change, but less risky than a 5/110 deal or whatever it would have taken (in a best case scenario) to get Greinke. Lee would be with us for the 2013, 2014, and 2015 seasons. (I believe we have Yovanni during that window?)

 

Is Lee the same type of diffence maker as Greinke? If the answer is yes, would you sign Greinke to a 3/72 deal?

 

Would it be cheaper to aquire Lee (in terms of prospects), than trying to trade for a proven/#1-2 type starter who is pre-arby or early arby? If we could trade Hart and Ramirez for some prospects, could those prospects be enough to net Lee?

[torts]

god no

[RockCoCougars]

I wouldn't touch Lee with a ten foot pole at that kind of money. He's been very hittable this year.

[markedman5]

We don't have what it would take in the minors to get him

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

aside from Greinke being 5 years younger... is there a significant difference in Greinke's 2012 numbers compared to Lee?

 

I wouldn't want to offer Lee a 5-6 year contract at this point, but we're talking about 3 years

[RockCoCougars]

aside from Greinke being 5 years younger... is there a significant difference in Greinke's 2012 numbers compared to Lee?

 

About 75 points in opponent OPS. Nowhere really to go but down for Cliff Lee at this point, and that contract is insane. There is a reason that the Phillies extended Hamels and now are trying to move Lee.

[torts]

you cant offer Lee a 5-6 year contract at this point because he's in the middle of a $24mil/year contract as it is, for 4 more years.

[TooLiveBrew]

We don't have what it would take in the minors to get him

I'm pretty confident we do, unless the Phils are making position-specific demands.

 

But I wouldn't want to move for Lee. He's been pretty durable, but mid-30s is where you might guess that could stop.

[trwi7]

Say the Brewers trade for Lee. They basically bring back the same team next year minus Greinke but with Lee. Why would we want to do that? There would be no room to fill in any other pieces.

[TURBO]

I think we have what it would take to get Lee, but I don't think we are or should be willing to give them what it would take.

 

I want no part of a deal involving Lee unless the deal was too good to pass up. I read someplace that the Rangers are possibly in on Lee, and Olt was mentioned in the same article.

 

Would it be something if the Rangers are willing to move him for Lee but not Greinke?

 

EDIT: This is what I read:

 

Buster Olney of ESPN reports that Phillies left-hander Cliff Lee is "in play in trade talks."

Olney calls the Rangers "the most logical landing spot" and says third base prospect Mike Olt could serve as a possible centerpiece. CBS Sports' Jon Heyman heard Friday that Lee was unlikely to be dealt at this year's July 31 deadline, but the Phillies just got swept by the Braves and may be more willing to sell off some pieces than they once were. Hunter Pence, Shane Victorino and Juan Pierre are also reportedly being shopped.

[JohnBriggs12]

I wouldn't touch Lee with a ten foot pole at that kind of money. He's been very hittable this year.

 

I agree. Brewers knocked him around pretty good. I'd be more tempted to inquire on Beckett if I were looking at under-performing starters with big contracts who could be on the market. Beckett only has 2 years, $31.5 million left. Beckett has at least shown he can rebound from bad years. He's done it

[torts]

I think we have what it would take to get Lee, but I don't think we are or should be willing to give them what it would take.

 

I want no part of a deal involving Lee unless the deal was too good to pass up. I read someplace that the Rangers are possibly in on Lee, and Olt was mentioned in the same article.

 

Would it be something if the Rangers are willing to move him for Lee but not Greinke?

 

Lee is signed for 3 more seasons, Greinke isnt, thats probably why

[SRB]

Lee is aging and has been fairly mediocre this year. Can't believe people on Twitter suggesting that it would cost top prospects to take on that contract.

[fondybrewfan]

Someone would have to pay me to take on that contract. Giving up any kind of good prospect would be idiotic. If Texas would rather give up Olt and pay Lee $24 Million a year than give up Olt for Grienke than they are a bunch of morons. Like has been said; Lee is trending downward.

[TooLiveBrew]

Like has been said; Lee is trending downward.

 

Is that actually true, though? Or are we just assuming he is because he's on the wrong side of 30. Has his velocity or command diminished? I honestly don't know, but it's entirely possible he's had a fluky bad year so far. 33 really isn't that old, but it's certainly past a guy's physical prime.

 

How many posts were there last season about Greinke being a guy who'd never be a true ace again (or something to that extent)? One season in baseball can be a very imperfect way to determine if a guy is declining or not.

[Dollarbill13]

Lee's BABIP allowed this year is .319 compared to a career rate of .296. He's striking out 8.5 per 9 compared to 9.2 last year. The 8.5 number is still the 2nd best in his career. Cliff Lee seems to just be showing signs of bad luck for the most part this year. The problem is his contract. I don't know that he'd get more than 3/72 on the free agent market. There's not a lot of sense in giving up a good prospect PLUS paying market value for the guy. If the Phils were willing to eat some of his contract AND we were in a position to "win now", I might be willing to take on Lee. I don't think either is the case right now, though, so he's probably better suited going to a larger market that can afford him at $24M per year.

[TURBO]

Does he have a no-trade clause? If so, odds are Milwaukee is on it, so this entire discussion could be rather pointless.

[HiAndTight]

We don't have what it would take in the minors to get him

 

 

 

Of COURSE we have MORE than enough to get him, mainly because they'd be trading him coming off a terribly down year for him, they want to stay below the luxury tax and they don't want to pick up much money.

 

MEANING, they'd likely not ask a whole lot in return.

 

By the way-Can we PLEASE stop with the standard, "we don't have enough to get him," answer? I would be fine with the, "it wouldn't make sense to get him." Alright then.

But we have enough in our system to trade for him 3 or 4 times over at his contract level easily.

 

 

Oh, and for the record, for those who are dismissing going after Lee, it's a 3 year commitment, which as a poster pointed out is RIGHT in that ARam, Gallardo, Weeks, window, we could afford in in the short term.

 

AND Greinke and Lee have roughly the same K/BB ratio...except that Greinke walks MORE guys, THE ONLY real difference between the two is.......dundudaddadaaa....Lee plays in an absurdly small park and has given up a lot more HR's than he normally does.

 

Between the two, Greinke and Lee, I'd take Greinke over 6 years any day of the week, over the next three years, it's a complete and utter toss up as to who may be better, and if we could get Lee for the right to pay him and perhaps Wily Peralta and Taylor Green, I'd do it in a second as it'd open up that window for us.

 

However the idea to trade FOR Lee by trading AWAY Hart and Rarmirez for prospects against doesn't just bump into the absurd, it crosses well over that line. Why trade for a guy like Lee so you don't waste Gallardo's years and then all the sudden throw out your 2nd and 3rd offensive players and power hitters(and two guys who by MY eye test have been exceptionally good defensively this year.

 

Someone needs to figure out a way to find a state for "errors saved."

[HiAndTight]

Lee's BABIP allowed this year is .319 compared to a career rate of .296. He's striking out 8.5 per 9 compared to 9.2 last year. The 8.5 number is still the 2nd best in his career. Cliff Lee seems to just be showing signs of bad luck for the most part this year. The problem is his contract. I don't know that he'd get more than 3/72 on the free agent market. There's not a lot of sense in giving up a good prospect PLUS paying market value for the guy. If the Phils were willing to eat some of his contract AND we were in a position to "win now", I might be willing to take on Lee. I don't think either is the case right now, though, so he's probably better suited going to a larger market that can afford him at $24M per year.

 

 

 

People don't seem to be getting this. The "BIG MARKET," teams will always be able to spend more than us, but they are at a point where that spending is slowing down significantly. Selig's revenue sharing and his luxury tax was always almost a progressive thing that became more and more of an issue year after year.

 

Now you have the Yankees, Red Sox and friggin Philies looking to cut payroll.

 

It'll NEVER be the NFL, but it may well end up being closer to basketball. The problem with a salary cap was ALWAYS how to implement it. Teams are so far over what it would likely be, you can't make it 95-100 million when the Yankee's are at 210. Well, fine. Don't. Set the luxury tax at 200 million for the next 12 years so you get to a point with inflation that the Brewers spending 150 million or wherever we shall be in 12 years, 185 or 135..I don't know, but the gap isn't nearly as large. And during which time the Yankees CAN spend 260 million, but it's really 320 because dollar for dollar goes into the rest of the league or the small market teams....same with the Sox, the Phillies...ie, the Lakers, the Mavs, the Knicks.....

 

 

Anyway, I don't know exactly how it's set up to work, or how it WILL work, but I know what IS happening, and it's getting tougher and tougher to just throw out the, "some big market team," label because as of right now, there aren't a ton of teams that fit that bill.

 

The Rangers may...but they may also give Hamilton 250 million.

The Angels likely don't with last off-season.

Boston, NYY, Philly? Hardly.

Washington? They'll need to spend that to keep this group together.

STL? Never been a "big," market even though they could spend if they wanted to?

CHC-Definitely one of the teams.

CHW-Please do because it never seems to work out....I mean, they end up being good, but Kenny seems to have to work extra hard so he doesn't get fired for the Adam Dunn, Rios, etc..etc...moves.

SFG? Maybe when Zito's gone, but what, say goodbye to Timmy?

LAD? They owe a LOT and way overpaid without parking rights and they added a big deal for Kemp, and now Hanley. Though they are still there.

 

Rest of the teams.

AL East

Tor/Balt-Could surprise and spend

TB-No way.

ALC

Minny/Cleveland/KC-Might dip in once in a blue moon, but not likely soon, especially the first two.

AL West-Oakland? Never. Seattle could, and they've got the young guns that a Greinke move there would actually be genius if they could also add a bat to take pressure off the young superstars they have.

NLE-Marlins/Nats-Not likely

NYM-Still digging.

NLC-Cincy they already spend their wad, Hou? No chance.

NLW-AZ and Col? Neither are legit.

 

 

So how many teams are you just going to dump a 20 million dollar pitcher on? People keep using "market size," when that's got nothing to do with our CURRENT spending ability. We're maximizing our revenue and with all the money off the books, the Brewers are likely in the top 10-12 of teams with money to spend this off-season.

[HiAndTight]

Does he have a no-trade clause? If so, odds are Milwaukee is on it, so this entire discussion could be rather pointless.

 

 

So is almost all conversation on a sports message board. Just because this board only 80 pct of the rumors we pull out of nowhere are pointless and the average board 95 pct just means we're a little bit less pointless than others.

 

Seriously though, it's amazing how you can look at this team. WITH an ace...without one.

 

Lee/Gallardo/Fiers(in a magic world he's really close to this good and posts a 3.00 ERA next year)/Rogers/Thornburg/Nelson,Who I think is going to end up being closer to Lee than Narveson in terms of production...just my opinion.

 

Maybe the two fireballers from the Angels along with Axford, Henderson, Loe, and then two arms from the farm system or FA's give us a great pen.

 

And we know our lineup is more than capable, but lets just continue to dream the dream. Gomez finally gets it. Even if he plays his normal D and plays like he is at the plate, he's a 3 WAR player in CF. If he doesn't, Aoki out there, Hart in RF and Gamel gets the nod at 1st, or Gamel learns RF. Luc, Aram, Segura, Weeks/Hart/Gamel/Aoki/Braun with a bench of Maldy, Schafer, Green

 

And this team spends less than last year DESPITE having a boatload of money coming in and maybe we're a contender.

 

Take Lee out, there's no hope at being a true contender anyway, and it's all about leaving those pitchers in the minors(I only mentioned a couple, obviously there where several other potential candidates..and I forgot Estrada, but Pena and Hellweg keep trying to start, and you have a 85 win team if everything breaks right and you get really lucky while Segura starts in AAA, Pena and Hellweg in AA, Peralta in AAA.

 

 

 

Just one player can get you hoping that one of many will be an X-factor and actually develop into something they have yet to be like Gomez/Gamel-several pitchers, or a rookie will break out...too many to name.

 

The other scenario has the white flag raised high to begin with.

 

Still though, I'd prefer to just take our lumps for another year, maybe two, try and get the payroll down to where we can start building that Packer like reserve so the next time we have a guy like Zack Greinke, we can be realistic in ST'ing and we can be the ones to set the bar and watch everyone else jump over it.

[StearnsFTW]

Just a point of clarification: lee is guaranteed $87.5mm including the $12.5mm buyout for 2016. Or $27.5 for 2016.

 

I wouldn't take him for free let alone trade anything of value for him. Man, have the phillies screwed themselves with the contracts they've handed out.

[MNBrew]

As others have said, I'd rather have Greinke, too. But -- assuming he's been more just unlucky & not fading/failing -- I'd take Lee and that contract because we need an ace-caliber starter and getting Lee when the Phillies are hoping to move him would be a shrewd & sneaky way to accomplish that. Making any deal favorable in terms of players vs. cash -- or both -- is of course essential.

 

And having Lee/Gallardo/Estrada/Fiers leading off the '13 rotation makes it much easier to pay Wolf's buyout and either let Marcum go OR, at the very least, negotiate from a point of good leverage with him.

 

Side note: If Marcum re-signed and other young studs also made a strong push for the rotation, wouldn't the bullpen look a whole lot better if Estrada were among those out there rather than a Livan or a K-Rod or a Veras out there?

[Bernie Brewer]

Cliff Lee placed on waivers today...

 

http://www.rotoinfo.com/comments-2012_08_02_02_56_pm__Cliff_Lee_P-140086.html

 

Do the Brewers put in a bid for him?

[PrinceEatMeat]

If by put in a bid you mean claim him, then heck no. No one is gonna risk claiming him. That's a massive contract to risk being saddled with. He'll clear, and Philly will need to kick in quite a bit of money to be able to trade him if they want a decent return. And no, we won't trade for him either. We don't have the prospects to trade, or the money to afford him.

[TooLiveBrew]

We absolutely would have the prospects to trade for Lee, but I agree with you that it's not a good idea.