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2013 FA arms


If we could get Greinke at that price, we just might be in it after all, but I bet he gets more. 6 years is scary though.

 

Same thing with Sanchez, 4 years at 52 mil? I bet he gets more than that.

 

Man do I hope we don't even show interest in Lohse, he has nightmare written all over him.

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Anibal Sanchez- 4 yrs / 52 mil

Kyle Lohse - 4 yrs / 52 mil

Dan Haren - 3 yrs / 36 mil

Edwin Jackson - 3 yrs / 36 mil

Ryan Dempster - 3 yrs / 36 mil

 

That seems way low for Sanchez. And Lohse getting the same as him?

 

If the choice is between Sanchez for 4 years at $13M per or Jackson at 3 years at $12M per, I'd take Sanchez.

 

No way Haren gets a three year deal.

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Greinke is far and away the best pitcher in this year's crop and will likely get a deal similar to Hamels extension 6/144. The Angels are going to go crazy to re-sign him.

 

No chance the Brewers are going to get Greinke back.

 

I'm going to be interested to see what kinds of offers Edwin Jackson gets, since he wasn't offered a QO. 2013 is only his age-29 season; I could easily see him getting 4-5 years.

 

TLB - I wanted to ask you this last night...given the fact the Nats didn't QO Jackson...how do you feel about the Brewers now possibly making a play for him and what would you realistically offer?

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There has to be something about Jackson that does not make the media that keeps him from sticking with a team and keeps teams from signing him for more than a year at a time. That leads me to guess he has some "issues" (physical or otherwise) GM's don't want to take long-term risk on. I will be interested to see if a team gives him a multi-year deal, and if it's the Brewers, I hope I'm wrong.

 

So the Angels bought out Haren for what $3.5 million? If I read this right we could have had Haren for basically $12 million and we trade a prospect (something is better than zero for the Angels). What am I missing here?

 

Yeah, I was hoping we could get Haren cheaply in a trade as well. Probably just hopeful thinking, but maybe we could land him on a one-year, incentive-laden contract.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

 

~Bill Walsh

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Would Bartolo Colon fit the bill for a cheap one year signing? I'm not saying I'm necessarily for it but he could be the least expensive, under the radar type that just may make sense. I would like to get feedback from others. Would he be a NRI considering his suspension for PED's?
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Would Bartolo Colon fit the bill for a cheap one year signing? I'm not saying I'm necessarily for it but he could be the least expensive, under the radar type that just may make sense. I would like to get feedback from others. Would he be a NRI considering his suspension for PED's?

 

No thanks! I would rather go long term with someone like Jackson than a short term with Colon.

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TLB - I wanted to ask you this last night...given the fact the Nats didn't QO Jackson...how do you feel about the Brewers now possibly making a play for him and what would you realistically offer?

I would love to see the Brewers go after Jackson, although now that he doesn't cost a team its first rounder, I'm concerned that the price might be prohibitive.

 

The highest I would go for Jackson would be 4/$60M. I think there's a good chance he could get 5 years from someone, though. I could certainly see the Yankees being interested, along with basically any club that misses out on Greinke (or doesn't want to meet his asking price in the first place). Jackson & Anibal Sanchez are pretty clearly the co-second-place SP on the market given their age, and the bidding could get crazy on them once Greinke is gone.

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There has to be something about Jackson that does not make the media that keeps him from sticking with a team and keeps teams from signing him for more than a year at a time. That leads me to guess he has some "issues" (physical or otherwise) GM's don't want to take long-term risk on. I will be interested to see if a team gives him a multi-year deal, and if it's the Brewers, I hope I'm wrong.

 

Monty - TLB and I were talking about this very thing in a different thread. Full disclosure; I've always considered myself a Jackson fan...going back a few years, and was secretly hoping the Brewers made a play for him last summer. I think he's one of the most underrated pitchers in MLB. That said, I've often wondered why he has a problem sticking with one team, especially considering he's (well, at least I consider him to be) a top of the rotation type of pitcher. I've often wondered if he's bad in the room, or if there is some personality conflict.

 

I found this article that was written back in Feb, after he signed on with the Nats, that tries to explore why he's bounced around. It's worth a look:

 

http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/2/3/2767775/edwin-jackson-washington-nationals-trades

 

TLB - I wanted to ask you this last night...given the fact the Nats didn't QO Jackson...how do you feel about the Brewers now possibly making a play for him and what would you realistically offer?

I would love to see the Brewers go after Jackson, although now that he doesn't cost a team its first rounder, I'm concerned that the price might be prohibitive.

 

The highest I would go for Jackson would be 4/$60M. I think there's a good chance he could get 5 years from someone, though. I could certainly see the Yankees being interested, along with basically any club that misses out on Greinke (or doesn't want to meet his asking price in the first place). Jackson & Anibal Sanchez are pretty clearly the co-second-place SP on the market given their age, and the bidding could get crazy on them once Greinke is gone.

 

Good stuff TLB. I am with you 100% on this one. And given the thin crop of quality FA SP, just like you said, I am afraid teams that lose out on Greinke are going to overspend for someone like Jackson.

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TLB - I wanted to ask you this last night...given the fact the Nats didn't QO Jackson...how do you feel about the Brewers now possibly making a play for him and what would you realistically offer?

I would love to see the Brewers go after Jackson, although now that he doesn't cost a team its first rounder, I'm concerned that the price might be prohibitive.

 

The highest I would go for Jackson would be 4/$60M. I think there's a good chance he could get 5 years from someone, though. I could certainly see the Yankees being interested, along with basically any club that misses out on Greinke (or doesn't want to meet his asking price in the first place). Jackson & Anibal Sanchez are pretty clearly the co-second-place SP on the market given their age, and the bidding could get crazy on them once Greinke is gone.

 

I'd rather have Melvin check into the health of Haren and see if maybe a deal could be worked out like say a 1-2 year guaranteed deal with an option for another year based on meeting certain agreeable numbers or innings pitched.

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Haren made more sense getting in trade. Now he's going to command something like 4/60 or 5/75 or more. Seems risky considering the Brewers depth of starting prospects at high levels.

 

I see the Brewers looking for "value plays" meaning guys who will be available on short term deals. I've mentioned Liriano. Another guy is Correia. Both should be available on short term deals. Liriano still has potential to be really good. Correia is a safe bet to be solid back end innings eater who should do well with a better offense. He's been .500 or better with poor offensive teams recently.

 

I see them staying away from long term big deals and waiting to see what bigger name might be had near the deadline.

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Haren made more sense getting in trade. Now he's going to command something like 4/60 or 5/75 or more.

 

Maybe, maybe not. The Angels ate $3.5MM for him not to pitch there. I'm sure they tried to work a trade like they did with Santana so they could get something, and didn't get any takers. Maybe the market for Haren isn't at the point where someone will offer him more than a one-year, incentive-laden deal. If that's the case, he'll either have to accept that deal or sit home and watch other people get paid to play baseball. Or, you could be right and someone will offer him a bigger deal. The Angels not being able to trade him may mean there are lingering issues, but if he's cleared to play, I hope Melvin at least contacts his agent about an incentive-laden, one-year deal.

 

I see them staying away from long term big deals and waiting to see what bigger name might be had near the deadline.

 

I hope you're right here. In my opinion, signing a mid-tier (Lohse-type) guy to a multi-year deal is a bad idea. He'd help this year, but by next season he'd just be an expensive guy blocking similarly talented young guys who would play for league minimum.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

 

~Bill Walsh

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Haren made more sense getting in trade. Now he's going to command something like 4/60 or 5/75 or more.

 

Maybe, maybe not. The Angels ate $3.5MM for him not to pitch there. I'm sure they tried to work a trade like they did with Santana so they could get something, and didn't get any takers. Maybe the market for Haren isn't at the point where someone will offer him more than a one-year, incentive-laden deal. If that's the case, he'll either have to accept that deal or sit home and watch other people get paid to play baseball. Or, you could be right and someone will offer him a bigger deal. The Angels not being able to trade him may mean there are lingering issues, but if he's cleared to play, I hope Melvin at least contacts his agent about an incentive-laden, one-year deal.

Monty, I think you're right about Haren. I don't think anyone will risk a 4-5 year deal on a guy with some health issues. Not at $15 million/year. The guy is not that old - 32 - but he's got a ton of miles on his arm, and he struggled last year. Assuming he feels he can return to his pre-2012 form, his best bet is to take a one year deal and re-establish his value. Then he can nail one more big contract. That makes him an interesting option for the Brewers (assuming the team thinks he can rebound). Haren at 1 year and $12 million is WAY better than Lohse at 3/$36 million.

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Interesting article about Haren by Dave Cameron at Fangraphs:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/dan-harens-health-and-what-we-dont-know/

 

He wonders if there's more issues with Haren's health than anyone realizes. You'd certainly have to run the guy through the ringer to make sure he's healthy before signing him.

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We probably ideally would like a LHP, wouldn't we? Otherwise we're all RHP.

 

Saunders?

I'd probably say no to Saunders, unless it was pretty team friendly. The guy is, basically a back end of the rotation guy. His ERA usually floats in the lower 4.00 region. He gives up a lot of hits, doesn't strike out a ton of guys. He'll be 32 next year, so he's not likely to get better. There's nothing wrong with what he does, but it all comes down to cost. A one or two year deal at $6 million/year is okay. But much more than that gets risky. I worry that with a little slippage in velocity, he could be really hittable, and his value go south fast. He's young enough that something like that is probably a couple of years away, but he seems like the type of guy that will get bad in a quick fashion.

 

Again, there's nothing wrong with Saunders. I'd have no problem with the team getting him on a reasonable contract. He won't cost a draft pick either - unlike guys like Edwin Jackson or Kuroda or Lohse.

 

It should be noted that Saunders pitched well for Baltimore after they traded for him last year. They reportedly want him back. He also, reportedly, wants to go back. He's from Virginia and likes pitching close to home.

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It should be noted that Saunders pitched well for Baltimore after they traded for him last year. They reportedly want him back. He also, reportedly, wants to go back. He's from Virginia and likes pitching close to home.

 

Good. Saunders has Braden Looper written all over him. He's Suppan II without the fastball and intangibles.....

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I think we'll make a strong play for Jackson. Hopefully for Sanchez too. Otherwise, say no to the rest and maybe see what Hamilton would cost afterall. Those would be the guys I target. Make Jackson and Sanchez plans A and A2. I am guessing we can get it done with one of them so need to go further. But I'd then have Hamilton as my plan B rather than signing any other free agent starter.
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