2013 FA arms

[pogokat]

I think haren would be a cool grab---If the Brewers aren't ready to throw 4 young pitchers out there at the same time next year, Haren would make a cool stopgap---sure, the cash is high, but it's a decent gamble on a bounceback, and with the option, it would only be for one year...besides, if he goes back to his old ways, i'm pretty sure you can offer him a qualifying offer at the end of the year

 

Santana scared me...but Haren's a good gamble, especially in a year when the Brewers have some money off the books

[Eye Black]

MLB Trade Rumors Top 50 Free Agents with Predictions includes Ryan Dempster and Jason Grilli as the Brewers projected FA addition.

[pogokat]

Dempster is who I thought we'd go for all along---he's familiar---and, was down enough to be afforadble-ish

 

also, unfortunately, he fits the mold of the FA pitcher's Melvin has signed before---Suppan, Wolf, Looper---so, i'd say there's a good to great shot of this one happening...

 

My guess? 3 years 36 million...and he'll be ok for one of those, good for one, and god forsakenly awful for one...ya know...just like wolf and suppan

[monty57]

I hope that Melvin looks at the minors and realizes that signing an aging vet to a three-year deal would only serve to block the young arms who are near-MLB-ready now and will be MLB-Ready in a year or two.

 

I hope he sees that a one-year "stopgap" is the way to go. I don't care whether this is aquired through a FA who needs to rebuild his value and is willing to sign a one-year, incentive-laden deal, or through a trade for someone like Haren, but I hope we don't go more than two years on whatever veteran Melvin picks up this offseason.

[JohnBriggs12]

Dempster has disaster written all over it. There is absolutely no need to sign a guy in his mid 30's to a multi year deal. When the Brewers signed Suppan and Wolf they didn't have multiple young pitchers knocking on the door of the major leagues. Now they do. Dempster had a good 4 months with a Cub team with no pressure on him at all. Then he went to Texas and posted an ERA over 5 in a pennant race. In 2011, when the Cubs were at least still trying to be good, he posted a 4.80 ERA. My guess is at 36 next year, he'll be closer to that 5 ERA than he is to a 3.

 

I'd rather them go after Haren. If not Haren, then a guy like Liriano, who's more of a buy low with some upside.

[jerichoholicninja]

Dempster is Canadian and a former Ranger. He'll be a Brewer. Book it.

[dpapo]

And he's pitched well against the Brewers, just like Suppan always did.

[xisxisxis]

The brewers need a top of the rotation SP, not another arm to compete with the younger SP. while Yo is a very good #2 he just doesn't cut it as a #1. Haren has shown the ability to be a top of the rotation starter and he fits much better than a washed up vet FA who will probably need 3 years to sign. adding a starter who can pitch deep into games often will help solve some of the bullpen issues. a rotation of Yo and 4 'young' guys is going to mean a lot of 3 inning games for the bullpen again and any weekness in the pen will be exposed nightly. we need at least 1 high ceiling vet who can pitch deep into games. there aren't a lot of options and i think Haren would be a perfect fit for the cost. if he continues to have back problems we still have depth with young sp.

[LouisEly]

- Melvin talked about how he could go in house for his rotation but then the team would be spread to thin if an injury occured so he will probably look to FA for a starter. Mentioned Edwin Jackson like you said and also refered to Lohse as the 2nd best starter available and never mentioned Anibal Sanchez.

- He specifically said its time to give Rogers and Peralta a shot in the rotation. Almost made it seem like Estrada and Fiers would battle it out for the 5th spot in the rotation with the other guy joining Axford, Henderson and Kintzler in the bullpen as a long reliever.

- He said we can expect 3-4 new guys in the bullpen this year. He mentioned he wants a lefty but not if isn't a quality one.

- It didn't sound like he was too keen on testing the trade market as he doesn't want to give up his young arms. Then he talked about having 8-9 guys between AA-AAA as legitimate prospects who will pitch in the big leagues.

 

[sarcasm]Bullet point #1 means he is looking at anyone other than Jackson and Lohse.[/sarcasm] Based on bullet points #2 and #3, I would not be surprised if he were targeting Francisco Liriano as a lefty bullpen arm; while no longer an ace, he could step in at least as a replacement level starter if any of the young guys get hurt and provide experience as well as go multiple innings as a reliever. I was thinking Narveson for this role, but he is a big question mark coming back from injury. Liriano posted a .605 OPS-A vs. LH hitters last year, a 1st inning OPS-A of .594 vs all hitters (LH and RH), and a 1st PA OPS-A of .703 (all hitters) so he certainly could be an effective LH reliever. (His 2nd PA OPS-A is pretty good too - .716)

 

No one is thinking Liriano is what he was in 2006. But in the right role (LH relief, spot starter) he could provide value, and if there is a mechanical issue causing the increase in walks the last two years that a pitching coach can pick up on and correct he could have some upside. I understand the comparisons to Parra, but Liriano had a much lower OPS-A vs. both RH and LH hitters as well as 1st PA OPS-A. He is not Parra.

[reillymcshane]

Dempster has way more going for him than Suppan ever did. Suppan never struck out many guys, and walked too many. Not a good combo. The year before he joined Milwaukee he had a 1.453 WHIP. That plain sucks. He had disaster tattooed on his forehead. He was moving to a tougher park and had a worse defense. That he ended up sucking was not a shock.

 

Dempster, on the other hand, has a solid strikeout and walk rate over the last few years. Better than Suppan ever had.

 

However, Dempster's performance had steadily trended downward from 2008-2011. His HR allowed rate went up, his hits allowed rate went up, ERA went up, WHIP went up. His Ks and BBs were about the same. It culminated in a poor 2011. He has a 4.80 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. Not good. That makes 2012 so frustrating. He did very well. 3.38 ERA. 1.20 WHIP. Which pitcher is Dempster? I honestly don't know, not really watching him much over the last few years (except Brewer games).

 

Dempster will be 36 next May. It's a risky age.

 

However, I think he's the kind of guy the Brewers will target. He seems to want to be in the midwest (when he vetoed the deal to LA). He's familiar with the Brewers and NL, so that probably helps. That we have a decent team can't hurt. Thus I think they'll target Dempster with a shorter deal - maybe two years. Maybe with an option if necessary. Hopefully at no more than $10 million annually.

 

I think Dempster fits the mold of what the team wants - and (hopefully) can afford. They get a veteran arm that can give them 180-200 innings of solid ball for a couple of years. And he won't cost a draft pick.

 

Dempster's age worries me. As does his poor 2011. If that is the 'real' Ryan Dempster, then it's a waste.

 

I really like Zack Greinke or Anibal Sanchez - but I think a lot of other teams do as well. Greinke will get $20+ million, while Sanchez will probably get $15 million or more (plus 5 or more years).

 

Other guys just don't fit that well. Edwin Jackson and Kuroda will likely cost a draft pick. The Crew doesn't seem to want Marcum. Joe Saunders looks like he's going to go back to Baltimore. Francisco Liriano, Brandon McCarthy and Carlos Villanueva have questions marks and aren't guys you can probably count on for 180 innings. Joe Blanton and Jeremy Guthrie just aren't very good.

[TooLiveBrew]

Anything over one season for Dempster seems crazy to me. Is he actually expected to get multi-year offers?

[LouisEly]

The brewers need a top of the rotation SP, not another arm to compete with the younger SP. while Yo is a very good #2 he just doesn't cut it as a #1. Haren has shown the ability to be a top of the rotation starter and he fits much better than a washed up vet FA who will probably need 3 years to sign. adding a starter who can pitch deep into games often will help solve some of the bullpen issues. a rotation of Yo and 4 'young' guys is going to mean a lot of 3 inning games for the bullpen again and any weakness in the pen will be exposed nightly. we need at least 1 high ceiling vet who can pitch deep into games. there aren't a lot of options and i think Haren would be a perfect fit for the cost. if he continues to have back problems we still have depth with young sp.

 

Dave, I agree with your premise. However, if my calculations are correct, the top 5 starting staffs in the NL based on OPS-A (WAS, LAD, ATL, SFG, STL) average start length was 5.77 to 6.04 IP; 3 inning games for a bullpen is the average. I have the Brewers at 5.67, but some of that was impacted by lifting young guys late in the season due to pitch count limits and the Grienke fiasco of starting 3 consecutive games, once getting tossed in the first inning.

 

I think the impact on the bullpen was due more to who was in it, than how much they were used.

[reillymcshane]

Anything over one season for Dempster seems crazy to me. Is he actually expected to get multi-year offers?

it only takes one team. I don't think it's crazy to think he'll get a 2-year - or even 3 year - deal.

 

Dempster pitched well last season - 3.38 ERA, 173 innings, 1.2 WHIP, 153K, 52BB. That's pretty good. I looked at Fangraphs and his FIP was 3.69 and xFIP 3.77 (if you like those kinds of stats). Again, pretty good. It was interesting to look at Fangraphs, and Dempster's FIP and xFIP have been very consistent over the past four years. A good sign. He had a 4.80 ERA in 2011, but his FIP was 3.91.

 

At his age, Dempster is unlikely to get better. But he has a good shot at being league average or better (NL starters had a 4.07 ERA last year).

 

A two year deal shouldn't cripple a team financially. Is a year safer? Sure. But I bet someone steps up to the plate and gives him more than one year.

 

I won't be shocked if it is the Brewers. 2 years. And maybe an option. I think the team fits Dempster well (Midwest, NL central, contender - hopefully). I think Atlanta would be a good fit for him too.

 

I'm not saying Dempster is my #1 target. I just think he and Brewers will find each other attractive. I'd love a one year deal with an option. But I bet they offer a 2-year deal to secure him. It still leaves the team with some money for a reliever or two.

[Bnowell4evr]

Dempster has way more going for him than Suppan ever did. Suppan never struck out many guys, and walked too many. Not a good combo. The year before he joined Milwaukee he had a 1.453 WHIP. That plain sucks. He had disaster tattooed on his forehead. He was moving to a tougher park and had a worse defense. That he ended up sucking was not a shock.

 

Dempster, on the other hand, has a solid strikeout and walk rate over the last few years. Better than Suppan ever had.

 

However, Dempster's performance had steadily trended downward from 2008-2011. His HR allowed rate went up, his hits allowed rate went up, ERA went up, WHIP went up. His Ks and BBs were about the same. It culminated in a poor 2011. He has a 4.80 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. Not good. That makes 2012 so frustrating. He did very well. 3.38 ERA. 1.20 WHIP. Which pitcher is Dempster? I honestly don't know, not really watching him much over the last few years (except Brewer games).

 

Dempster will be 36 next May. It's a risky age.

 

However, I think he's the kind of guy the Brewers will target. He seems to want to be in the midwest (when he vetoed the deal to LA). He's familiar with the Brewers and NL, so that probably helps. That we have a decent team can't hurt. Thus I think they'll target Dempster with a shorter deal - maybe two years. Maybe with an option if necessary. Hopefully at no more than $10 million annually.

 

I think Dempster fits the mold of what the team wants - and (hopefully) can afford. They get a veteran arm that can give them 180-200 innings of solid ball for a couple of years. And he won't cost a draft pick.

 

Dempster's age worries me. As does his poor 2011. If that is the 'real' Ryan Dempster, then it's a waste.

 

I really like Zack Greinke or Anibal Sanchez - but I think a lot of other teams do as well. Greinke will get $20+ million, while Sanchez will probably get $15 million or more (plus 5 or more years).

 

Other guys just don't fit that well. Edwin Jackson and Kuroda will likely cost a draft pick. The Crew doesn't seem to want Marcum. Joe Saunders looks like he's going to go back to Baltimore. Francisco Liriano, Brandon McCarthy and Carlos Villanueva have questions marks and aren't guys you can probably count on for 180 innings. Joe Blanton and Jeremy Guthrie just aren't very good.

 

 

Thats the million dollar or should I say 10 million dollar question. If you look at his 2nd half stats in Texas they are eerily similar to his rough 2011 season.

 

4.80 ERA 1.448 WHIP 9.4 H/9

5.09 ERA 1.435 WHIP 9.7 H/9

 

Throw in a declining FB velocity that has fallen from 91.0 to 90.3 to 89.7 a year ago and you have a lot of red flags. I agree completely that he shouldn't be compared to Suppan, Looper, Davis or even Wolf if you look at his FIP's the last couple of years but that FB velocity invites those types of comparisons.

[ORBrewerFan]

The brewers need a top of the rotation SP, not another arm to compete with the younger SP.

 

This has been my thinking for months now. If they're going to sign someone that is only a #4, they might as well go with the youngsters and save the money for a mid-season trade if they're in it.

 

Greinke, Sanchez and Jackson are the only free agent starters that qualify. Greinke is obviously going to be beyond our budget. Sanchez is reportedly looking for a C.J. Wilson type deal (5 years, $15M per), which might leave the Brewers out. Jackson might, MIGHT, be able to be gotten on a three-year deal for $13M per, but the reports are he wants a four-year deal at $15M per. Haren might match up, but anyone thinking he'll sign a deal for only $5M is deluding himself. The injury concerns will limit the length of the deal, not the money. He'll end up getting $9-12M for a one-year deal. Remember, Sheets got a $10M one-year deal three years ago and he hadn't pitched at all the previous season.

 

I'm still in favor of trading for Shields. Gamel, Khris Davis and (insert pitching prospect here). The Brewers are deep enough in pitchers that one can be dealt without crashing the entire system.

[monty57]

The brewers need a top of the rotation SP, not another arm to compete with the younger SP.

 

This has been my thinking for months now. If they're going to sign someone that is only a #4, they might as well go with the youngsters and save the money for a mid-season trade if they're in it.

 

Greinke, Sanchez and Jackson are the only free agent starters that qualify. Greinke is obviously going to be beyond our budget. Sanchez is reportedly looking for a C.J. Wilson type deal (5 years, $15M per), which might leave the Brewers out. Jackson might, MIGHT, be able to be gotten on a three-year deal for $13M per, but the reports are he wants a four-year deal at $15M per. Haren might match up, but anyone thinking he'll sign a deal for only $5M is deluding himself. The injury concerns will limit the length of the deal, not the money. He'll end up getting $9-12M for a one-year deal. Remember, Sheets got a $10M one-year deal three years ago and he hadn't pitched at all the previous season.

 

I'm still in favor of trading for Shields. Gamel, Khris Davis and (insert pitching prospect here). The Brewers are deep enough in pitchers that one can be dealt without crashing the entire system.

 

If we're signing a multi-year deal, I absolutely agree that it would need to be a top-of-the-rotation starter and not a middle-of-the-rotation guy. If Melvin is looking for a veteran because he's worried about innings limits, then a one-year deal to a middle-of-the-rotation guy wouldn't be that bad.

 

As to Haren, no one thinks he'd sign a one-year, $5MM deal. He has one more year for around $15.5MM on his deal with the Angels, who are apparently trying to salary dump some SP to free up cash. If they are willing to take on some of the salary and/or accept little in return (in terms of prospects) for a team that will take on salary, then Haren could potentially be had fairly cheaply. I really like the thought of trading a mid-tier prospect and eating half the contract or so in order to land Haren. We'd probably have to give up a little more than KC did for Santana, but they gave up so little that "a little more" still wouldn't be that much.

 

If we could land Shields for a so-so group of prospects, then I would also be all over it. However, I think the deal starts with Peralta and Morris, and I don't want to give up our best young talent for two years of a SP. If we don't make that trade, then in a couple of years, we should have enough pitching talent that we can be the one getting other teams' top prospects for 1-2 years of our starters.

[Baldkin]

I see a Roy Oswalt or Dice-K signing for 1 year.

 

I'm not sure why I see it... but I do. I might be in slight favor of Oswalt, but want no part of 5.5 hour game Dice-K

[brwrsfan]

The guy I would like is Kuroda, but I don't see him even mentioned anywhere. Is he that big of a lock to stay in NY? He seems like a good fit for a 2-3 year deal, been very good the last few years.

[nate82]

The guy I would like is Kuroda, but I don't see him even mentioned anywhere. Is he that big of a lock to stay in NY? He seems like a good fit for a 2-3 year deal, been very good the last few years.

 

The Yankees will offer Kuroda a QO. Do you really want to lose a pick by signing Kuroda?

[wisniewski]

Yeah, the Yanks QO'd Kuroda this afternoon.

[wisniewski]

So the Nats announced they QO'd LaRoche, but no news on Jackson either way.

 

Cardinals QO Lohse.

[Bnowell4evr]

So the Nats announced they QO'd LaRoche, but no news on Jackson either way.

 

Cardinals QO Lohse.

 

I just checked twitter after I read your post.

 

 

Adam Kilgore ‏@AdamKilgoreWP

The Nats extended Adam LaRoche a qualifying offer, as @evandrellich first reported, and did not give one to Edwin Jackson.

Expand

 

Adam Kilgore ‏@AdamKilgoreWP

I would expect that cuts the cord between Edwin Jackson and the Nats. If they don't want to give him 1/13.3, then they're not getting him.

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[wisniewski]

So the Nats announced they QO'd LaRoche, but no news on Jackson either way.

 

Cardinals QO Lohse.

 

I just checked twitter after I read your post.

 

 

Adam Kilgore ‏@AdamKilgoreWP

The Nats extended Adam LaRoche a qualifying offer, as @evandrellich first reported, and did not give one to Edwin Jackson.

Expand

 

Adam Kilgore ‏@AdamKilgoreWP

I would expect that cuts the cord between Edwin Jackson and the Nats. If they don't want to give him 1/13.3, then they're not getting him.

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Well, that's step 1. Knocks that draft pick compensation wall down. Would be so psyched if the Brewers signed Jackson.

 

Does 3/33 get it done? Does that deal make sense for the Brewers?

[nate82]

 

Well, that's step 1. Knocks that draft pick compensation wall down. Would be so psyched if the Brewers signed Jackson.

 

Does 3/33 get it done? Does that deal make sense for the Brewers?

 

This is probably closer to what it will take to sign Jackson 5 years/$77.5M. That is CJ Wilson's contract from last year which Jackson should get close to. He probably won't get 5-years but 3-years with an option for a 4th is very realistic. Money wise you are looking at probably 3 years/43.5 with a team option for a fourth year at $17m or a $3.5m buyout. I don't think Jackson will even listen for anything less than 13-15m annually.

[Eye Black]

My guess on Jackson is 3 years/$37.5m, with a 4th year option.

 

Fangraphs published the results of their Crowdsourcing exercise, and here are some of the projected contracts for FA starting pitchers:

 

Zack Greinke - 6 yrs / 114 mil

Anibal Sanchez- 4 yrs / 52 mil

Kyle Lohse - 4 yrs / 52 mil

Dan Haren - 3 yrs / 36 mil

Edwin Jackson - 3 yrs / 36 mil

Ryan Dempster - 3 yrs / 36 mil

Hiroki Kuroda - 2 yrs / 24 mil

Brandon McCarthy - 2 yrs / 20 mil

Shaun Marcum - 2 yrs / 20 mil

Joe Saunders - 2 yrs / 16 mil