2013 FA arms

[nate82]

Ervin Santana on a 1-year deal would be the best option for a starter. I would rather spend that money on a bullpen arm or two than a starter.

[paul253]

Ervin Santana on a 1-year deal would be the best option for a starter

 

Ervin Santana had an ERA over 5 last season and has a career 4.33 ERA. My biggest fear is that Melvin will go after someone like him. We'd probably have to give him at least $5 or $6 million for one year. You could get two good bullpen arms for that.

 

The thing I don't get is that we've been begging for home grown, cheap, controllable pitching for years now. We finally have it and we aren't going to use it? Obviously Gallardo is a lock. You'd have to believe Fiers and Estrada have earned spots too. So that means if you go out and spend money on a free agent starter either Rogers or Peralta is out of the rotation. Rogers has no options left so we'd have to stick him in the bullpen. I'd much rather sign a guy or two like Marco Estrada, someone who will start as the long man in the bullpen and can make a spot start or two if necessary.

 

If we go with Gallardo, Fiers, Estrada, Peralta and Rogers, we still have Thornburg. From what I understand Narveson is already throwing off a mound so he has all offseason to continue his rehab. There's Burgos. There's Nelson. Then we can add a few cheaper guys in there and I think we'd be ok. Narveson and Thornburg are your top two replacement starters. If you have to go deeper than that for an extended period of time it will probably be a lost season anyway.

[TURBO]

Paul for President!

[nate82]

Ervin Santana on a 1-year deal would be the best option for a starter

 

Ervin Santana had an ERA over 5 last season and has a career 4.33 ERA. My biggest fear is that Melvin will go after someone like him. We'd probably have to give him at least $5 or $6 million for one year. You could get two good bullpen arms for that.

 

 

I don't believe Santana will get $5 or $6m for one year. I think he will be lucky to get $2-4m for one year. But you are right that getting two good bullpen arms would be a better option that is why I said I would prefer the bullpen arms over a starter.

 

The reason why I brought up Santana is because he is not going to cost all that much and if the Brewers are going to spend on a starter this off season I would prefer someone like Santana where you won't have to tie up a lot of money or years into him. I was all for getting Jackson but the Brewers push at the end of the year basically throws that idea out. I don't see the Brewers signing a free agent that is going to cost them their 1st round pick. This is the reason why I don't see the Brewers going after either Lohse or Jackson as they will both more than likely get qualifying offers from their teams maybe not Lohse but the Brewers need to stay far far far far far far away from Lohse.

[paul253]

I didn't mean to pick on Santana specifically, just all pitchers similar to him. Jackson is good but I imagine he'll cost a a bit. What I was getting at is that I just don't understand why we have to sign a starting pitcher. As I said, we finally have enough home grown guys to fill a rotation and we aren't even going to give them all a chance? Peralta and Rogers don't need any more time in AAA. Actually Rogers can't go to AAA. But Peralta isn't going to learn anything more down there. His main issue is control. Fiers and Estrada don't need to go down there. There's your 4 guys. Then you have two additional arms in Narveson and Thornburg should one of them falter or get hurt. Yeah sign some depth but don't waste $5 million on an average pitcher just because he is "experienced". I think Melvin greatly over-values experience.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think Melvin greatly over-values experience.

He absolutely does, and my hope is that this season taught him that... OMG young players can actually contribute in a playoffs chase. Not holding my breath on that one, though.

[Brewcrewin07]

Anyone here that thinks the Brewers can trot out the rotation some people are listing and be competitive all season, well I have swampland in the desert to sell you. It may work for awhile next season, but they will absolutely not maintain it all year long. Just no way. Some of those Pitchers are not talented enough. Gallardo, Rogers and Peralta, would be 3 of my five, after that, I wouldn't trust any two of the other combinations to trot them out there all season. I'm glad Melvin is going to pursue Pitching. My biggest fear was that he would see what some of these younger guys did at the end of this year, and just be content and go with that. He realizes it's fools gold, especially in the cases of Estrada and Fiers(neither with overpowering stuff). Sign whoever you need to sign Doug, you have PLENTY of money, and the lineup is set.

[paul253]

Anyone here that thinks the Brewers can trot out the rotation some people are listing and be competitive all season, well I have swampland in the desert to sell you

 

I'm actually looking to buy some land. What desert is this swampland in?

 

Seriously though, what kind of pitcher are we likely to get on the free agent market? Probably an innings eater that will put up an ERA around 4.5. Do you really think Mike Fiers can't do that? Or Marco Estrada? Even Chris Narveson. These are your numbers 4 and 5 starters most likely. They don't need to be aces. It would be one thing if he was going after a Zack Greinke or something. But why spend $5 million on someone who is going to put up similar numbers to guys you already have?

He realizes it's fools gold, especially in the cases of Estrada and Fiers(neither with overpowering stuff).

 

So Melvin is just supposed to completely dismiss 2012 and find someone to replace these guys?

Sign whoever you need to sign Doug, you have PLENTY of money, and the lineup is set.

 

The bullpen is a disaster though. That should be his number one concern. Depth should be another concern because he benches that past two years have been atrocious.

[Bnowell4evr]

Anyone here that thinks the Brewers can trot out the rotation some people are listing and be competitive all season, well I have swampland in the desert to sell you

 

I'm actually looking to buy some land. What desert is this swampland in?

 

Seriously though, what kind of pitcher are we likely to get on the free agent market? Probably an innings eater that will put up an ERA around 4.5. Do you really think Mike Fiers can't do that? Or Marco Estrada? Even Chris Narveson. These are your numbers 4 and 5 starters most likely. They don't need to be aces. It would be one thing if he was going after a Zack Greinke or something. But why spend $5 million on someone who is going to put up similar numbers to guys you already have?

He realizes it's fools gold, especially in the cases of Estrada and Fiers(neither with overpowering stuff).

 

So Melvin is just supposed to completely dismiss 2012 and find someone to replace these guys?

Sign whoever you need to sign Doug, you have PLENTY of money, and the lineup is set.

 

The bullpen is a disaster though. That should be his number one concern. Depth should be another concern because he benches that past two years have been atrocious.

 

Have you even looked at the FA market or are you just assuming were gonna sign Braden Looper again? Theres plenty of arms that could give us 200 innings of sub 4 ERA ball. Guys like Greinke, Peavy, Jackson, Sanchez, Kuroda, Haren and Marcum. Well not so much the 200 innings from Marcum but he'd give you the sub 4 ERA.

 

And anyone suggesting we blow our money on relievers can answer how well that has worked out for us in the past. I'd much rather use that cash on someone like Anibal Sanchez and move someone like Thornburg in the 8th instead of wasting him all year in AAA.

[paul253]

Have you even looked at the FA market or are you just assuming were gonna sign Braden Looper again? Theres plenty of arms that could give us 200 innings of sub 4 ERA ball. Guys like Greinke, Peavy, Jackson, Sanchez, Kuroda, Haren and Marcum.

 

Marcum has already said its not gonna happen. Greinke is a pipe dream and probably always has been. So those are two names you can cross off the list. All the other guys you mention, especially Sanchez, are going to be looking for big money and multi-year deals.

 

And anyone suggesting we blow our money on relievers can answer how well that has worked out for us in the past

 

It worked out pretty well in 2011 when we had Saito and Hawkins. I'd rather take my chances with one or two year contracts on free agents than throw out what we have on our team now.

 

I'd much rather use that cash on someone like Anibal Sanchez and move someone like Thornburg in the 8th instead of wasting him all year in AAA.

 

So you'd rather sign a top tier starting pitching free agent (which is debatable as to whether or not we can even afford) and move our top pitching prospect to the bullpen than sign one or two good relievers at probably a tenth of the cost of a starting pitcher? That plan seems to go against everything that this organization should be doing.

 

And for the record, I am all for moving guys as quickly through the system as possible, but having watched Thornburg in Milwaukee this season it seems clear that a year in Nashville would do him some good.

[MNBrew]

Paul, I like that you brought up Saito b/c not every FA vet = an even mildly absurd contract. Saito was 1 yr/$1.5M or something right in that range. That's just over half what Loe & Parra each got paid last year, and for a whole lot better production!

 

The best answers often don't lie in the biggest names or biggest dollars, but in the wisest decisions. Of course, what makes those wisest decisions the wisest is often borne out through performance, which can't be certain in advance.

 

Anyway, I'd still take the right FA starter on the right deal (assuming he agrees to it, whether it's my ideal one -- Greinke -- or an Edwin Jackson or Jake Peavy or whomever). On a related thought, I'd take at least 1-2 "right" relievers via trade or FA (including K-Rod if the price is right) over another year of Loe or Parra!

 

(Addendum: If there's anything to this (http://www.620wtmj.com/news/local/173964751.html), however, it might be time to move on from K-Rod based on principle, not on pitching.)

[RockCoCougars]

As has generally been the case in recent years it's a bad year for free agent starting pitching, so I don't really want the Brewers to get involved. The few guys who hit the market that get multiyear deals will almost certainly be overpaid. I don't think that signing a #2/3 caliber guy for eight figures makes much sense for a team with so many young guys who have a chance to be just as good. I'd rather fill out the rotation with one or two make good type vets on one or two year deals. It seems like every winter, a few guys in the McCarthy, Liriano mold fall through the cracks after the big spenders do their wheeling and dealng.

[Mr Southpaw]

I will have an order of A Sanchez for 4/62

and a side order of two lefties for the pen....JP Howell 3/9 and J Affeldt 3/23

 

Anybody think that is reasonable?

[MNBrew]

Howell, yes. The other two, no. Jeremy Affeldt is a $7.7M/yr reliever? Whoa. That's nearly closer's money and we have a closer.

[JohnBriggs12]

Ervin Santana is an interesting name. His numbers all look decent except for HR allowed. That number is scary (39) He was fine in inter-league though with a 3.45 ERA and 0.837 WHIP. For a one year deal that's not over the top, he's a pretty good gamble moving to a league where the pitchers bat and he won't be facing the Rangers (who destroyed him).

 

I'd stay away from the multi year deals for guys in their 30's, especially ones coming off very good years that aren't likely to repeat them.

 

I think the Brewers will be fine starting the year seeing what they have. If they bring somebody in, it should be a guy who's at a discount, but has rebound potential (like a Santana) and that has a veteran presence. If he flames out or loses his spot to a young guy, so be it. I'd also be okay if like 2 years ago, they "went all in" and used some of their young pitching and a hitter for a top of the rotation guy to pair with Gallardo. Keep in mind though the objective the first half of the season is to get in position. They can always deal for a more experienced guy to handle the pressure the last couple months.

[jmeks23]

Avoid FA. Just pick up big game James Shields and you have an innings eater who has had good success pitching in the AL East his entire career. Guaranteed a move to NL Central will improve his statistics as well.

[Mr Southpaw]

I will have an order of A Sanchez for 4/62

and a side order of two lefties for the pen....JP Howell 3/9 and J Affeldt 3/23

 

Anybody think that is reasonable?

..................................................................................................................................

I have changed my order................

 

J Shields (2/22) need to trade 1-2 low low level pitching prospect (Toledo, Wagner, Quintana)

and a side order of lefty pen masters(?)...Howell (3/9) and J Affeldt 3/20

[JohnBriggs12]

No way Rays take low level guys for Shields. You are going to need to give them a rotation ready arm like Rogers and either another quality arm or a bat at a position of need for them. That happens to be 1B. If you are lucky, they'd take Gamel and Rogers, but my guess is they'd want Morris and Peralta. I would think Brewers consider Peralta nearly untouchable, but not Morris so my guess is Rogers and Morris for Shields.

 

For the pen a combo of Rauch and Howell is much more cost effective than giving Affeldt that kind of money and gives you a veteran setup guy and a quality lefty, their two pressing needs.

[MNBrew]

I'm thinking Shields might cost a little more than that, JB12, but maybe only one more player & he wouldn't have to be better than Rogers & Morris.

 

There are a zillion ideas being tossed around, but both those ideas you mention (Shields for Morris/Rogers, FA relievers Howell & Rauch) make a whole lot of sense, though Rauch's time here in MN showed me he's someone I'd likely prefer to see in the 7th than in the 8th. That said, if the bullpen were this, I'd think it's pretty solid:

 

Axford

Henderson

Rauch

Veras

Howell

Kintzler

+ someone from the minors with options remaining

 

That could be a pretty respectable and probably pretty versatile, too, since both Rauch (majors) & Henderson (minors mostly) also have closer experience.

 

I'm not sure JB12's ideas are the ultimate ones, but collectively there's some solidly rooted logic and realism to them.

 

Even if it meant overpaying, I'd take Grant Balfour over Rauch in a heartbeat every day of the week.

[endaround]

Rogers as the center piece for Shields? If Melvin pulls that off it would be amazing. Rogers is about to be 26 and has pitched over 130 innings once. And he did not pitch that well in AAA last year. And Morris? Until he starts to walk he projects more as a reserve, which at 1B doesn't have a huge amount of value.

 

The Brewers have more money than tradeable talent, not sure why people can't see that.

[MNBrew]

The Brewers have more money than tradeable talent, not sure why people can't see that.

 

You're right, of course that's the case, but it doesn't mean the right deal can't be struck if another team sees sufficient value in what's proposed.

[JohnBriggs12]

Rogers as the center piece for Shields? If Melvin pulls that off it would be amazing. Rogers is about to be 26 and has pitched over 130 innings once. And he did not pitch that well in AAA last year. And Morris? Until he starts to walk he projects more as a reserve, which at 1B doesn't have a huge amount of value.

 

The Brewers have more money than tradeable talent, not sure why people can't see that.

 

 

Now wait a second. If Rogers isn't that valuable, then why restrict his innings when he was dealing late in the year? Wouldn't it make more sense to just to have him prove his worth on the mound in a sink or swim trial? My original post said that Rays would want Peralta as the centerpiece. It would up to the Brewers to include more. I do think a Rogers/Morris combo could be a centerpiece that could be added to.

 

Having money doesn't mean you should spend it foolishly. They are better off hanging on to it. Long term deals to pitchers in their 30's coming off career years is a recipe for disaster.

[monty57]

Having money doesn't mean you should spend it foolishly.

 

Well put. Also add "...and having prospects doesn't mean we have to trade them" and we have a good starting point.

 

I know everyone is excited about the final months of the season and want to see us do whatever we can to make the team better for next year. There is certainly reason to be optimistic about next year's team. I just caution that any moves need to be gone over with the proverbial "fine tooth comb." As you mentioned that free agent deals can be "recipes for disaster," so can trades, whether it be trading prospects for veterans or trading veterans for prospects. I personally think the biggest positive to come out of this season was that when we failed with the veterans, the inexperienced guys got a shot and made the most of it. Maybe it's coincidence, but this team gelled once we traded guys and let our "young" players shine. I'm not overly enthused about signing players simply to block some of the guys who turned our team around this year.

 

If we feel that we need to add a veteran arm, I still like the option of signing a one-year deal to someone who is trying to rebuild his value. This is a low-risk scenarion with decent upside potential. Another option if innings counts are an issue is simply to save the money in reserve and pick up another team's "salary dump" pitcher mid-season if we are in the race. Again, low risk as the money's only spent if we need the bump mid-season. Heck, we could even look for a "salary dump" candidate this offseason, as long as it's only a one-year committment. I just don't want to get stuck into big-money long-term.

 

In that same light, I don't like the concept of signing a mid-tier guy to a multi-year deal. We have plenty of guys who are either MLB-ready or near-MLB-ready that will fit into the middle of the rotation for $500k, so there's no reason to bring in someone making seven or eight figures who is simply blocking the similarly-talented pre-arby guys.

 

I also don't like the thought of making another "multiple-prospects-for-two-years-of-a-veteran" deal. We are in a position to field a young, inexpensive, homemade rotation with a continuous stream of young talent on the horizon. We are realistically in a position that in the not-too-distant future we could deal from a position of strength by having an excess of young, talented starting pitching. In the baseball world, that's like being able to print money. I think trading them now would put us on the wrong side of the trade. We should wait until they're knocking down the door and then see what we could get by trading Gallardo, Fiers, etc and replacing them with the guys from the minors. Why trade our top prospects for Shields now when in a yaer or two we can be the ones in the Rays' position, demanding someone else's top prospects for our guys?

[MNBrew]

While I think the Rogers/Morris-for-Shields thing makes some sense, I'm not necessarily saying I think we should trade Rogers. And anyway, on a deal like that, it takes 2 teams to tango. However, . . .

 

While Rogers has started proving he's been worth the investment in terms of recovering from lots of injuries & time away from the diamond, the fact of his injury-heavy past is perhaps a worthy reason to consider trading him. If he breaks down again, it wouldn't then be the Brewers left holding the bag. . . .

 

My thinking is similar to those who say Melvin doesn't often "sell high" on players. By the same logic, Rogers has persevered, fought his way back, and proved he can pitch in the bigs. Just maybe (which of course means also maybe not, but for the sake of this discussion, just maybe) this is the time to trade that asset as part of a deal for the right "bigger fish." The risk, as many often point out in the performance/value "sell high" discussions, is that holding onto a previously oft-injured player too long may mean you're the team stuck with him when he's out for a long period again.

 

Again, I'm not sure at all that trading Rogers would be the right thing to do. But compared to many of the other young pitchers, there are some reasons there with Rogers that make it a thought worth considering.

[monty57]

Rogers' biggest issue right now is that he's out of options. We either have to put him in the 2013 rotation, the 2013 bullpen, or trade him. If the Brewers' brass feels that his value in trade is greater than his value as a member of the 2013 team, then they should probably look at what they could get in trade. However, the injury issue you mention will certainly lower his value on the trade market.

 

I think he could help the 2013 Brewers, and while the injury risk is always going to be there, it's only a $500k risk at this point as he's pre-arby. I'd like to see if he can cut it as our 5th starter going into 2013. If we sign or trade for a veteran, it will probably mean Rogers becomes a middle reliever. This is one of my big issues with the thought of bringing in a veteran "because we have to." If we bring in someone like Greinke then maybe it's worth it, but after all the time, effort and money the Brewers have spent on Rogers, I'd hate to relegate him to a middle reliever role so we can get a couple of seasons from a 30-something-year-old non-ace.