2013 FA arms

[MJLiverock]

I think you answered the Bedard issue with anyone could have him now for league minimum and no one is biting. I want no part of him as long man/spot starter. He's not even being brought in by teams like the Astros, Cubs, etc. to see if he has anything left. He doesn't deserve a spot on a 25 man roster now and won't next year.

[reillymcshane]

Another thing we have consider with adding a bigger name free agent is compensation.

 

It's estimated that a qualifying offer will need to be around $13 million.

 

Guys like Edwin Jackson, Kyle Lohse and Jake Peavy would cost the Brewers their 1st round pick in 2013 - assuming their current teams make the qualifying offer.

 

Guys traded during the year, like Anibal Sanchez or Greinke are not able to garner a draft pick.

 

I'm not sure how much he'll get, but I wouldnt mind the Crew make a run at Sanchez. However, I have a feeling that someone will go crazy and give him $15 million or more.

 

Of course, we can check on Greinke, but I have a feeling we'll settle for a mid tier guy - maybe even bring back Marcum. Dan Haren would be interesting if his option isn't picked up. I do think the club will bring in someone.

[JohnBriggs12]

There is an article hinting the Pirates may non-tender Jeff Karstens. OK. ok, I realize this guy has been public enemy #1 in the past, but I like combativeness and when healthy he's been pretty good (1.207 and 1.147 WHIPS the past 2 seasons). If the Brewers are looking for a nice value on an under the radar vet, they could do worse.

[StearnsFTW]

Good point on Jackson, Reilly. I probably wouldn't sign him based on cost and compensation.

 

As far as Karstens goes, I'd definitely take him if he came cheap enough. He's decent when healthy.

[pogokat]

I'd love Anibal Sanchez...he's actually young!!!

[reillymcshane]

I'd love Anibal Sanchez...he's actually young!!!

I like Sanchez too. Just a solid pitcher. He struggled at first in Detroit, but has really righted himself the last month or so. Overall, he's been a consistent arm the last few years, and would nicely fill an open position. Plus, he's young (29 next feb).

 

I just worry a team like Boston will throw stupid money at him. Oh well, we shall see.

[TheCrew07]

I'll agree that Sanchez is "younger" than a typical Melvin target, but he's not "young" and this isn't an issue of semantics.

 

He's already on the downside of career and while he will likely maintain his his career line for a while, he's neither young or inexpensive.

 

As far as FA goes Sanchez is a reasonable target and for the right contract I'd take him, but when was the last time a FA pitcher who regularly puts up 200 innings and a sub 4 ERA got less than 4 years? He won his arbitration case this year to get his $8 mil and with a strong run through the playoffs he might get as much as $15 mil/year depending on who's interested if salaries continue to escalate like they did last season. I could see Sanchez getting a 4 year $50-$60 mil contract in which case I'd pass.

[Bnowell4evr]

I'd be willing to go 4 years 52 mill on Anibal Sanchez. Compare his numbers the last 3 years to Gallardo's and he stacks up very favorably. His fastball velocity (91.8) is exactly the same as Gallardo's. His WAR the last 3 years (12.0) is better than Gallardo's (10.6).

 

He's young so theres plenty of tread on the tires. We need an impact starter and Greinke is too rich for our blood but for a fraction of the price we can get a very solid #2. I don't know about you guys but I'd go to war with a rotation of Gallardo, Sanchez, Peralta, Rogers and one of Estrada/Fiers.

[endaround]

Sanchez at $15m per year for 4 years is a steal.

[Roderick]

I'd love Anibal Sanchez...he's actually young!!!

 

If the Brewers bring in a FA, I don't think youth will be the biggest factor. They may look for a Dempster type that would only be looking for a shorter deal. Why sign a guy for a longer deal and potentially block other min wage pitchers the Brewers are developing?. What happens if more than 3 of: Estrada, Fiers, Rogers, Peralta, Thornburg, Hellweg, Burgos should be in a MLB starting rotation, but are blocked by a FA signing? That would seem to be paying more to get similar results plus wasting an asset(s) by shuffling them to the bullpen or keeping them AAA.

[Bnowell4evr]

I'd love Anibal Sanchez...he's actually young!!!

 

If the Brewers bring in a FA, I don't think youth will be the biggest factor. They may look for a Dempster type that would only be looking for a shorter deal. Why sign a guy for a longer deal and potentially block other min wage pitchers the Brewers are developing?. What happens if more than 3 of: Estrada, Fiers, Rogers, Peralta, Thornburg, Hellweg, Burgos should be in a MLB starting rotation, but are blocked by a FA signing? That would seem to be paying more to get similar results plus wasting an asset(s) by shuffling them to the bullpen or keeping them AAA.

 

Easy you go with the 5 best starters regardless of money. Why would you take out a better starter just because you have a fill in that makes less than him? And making a stacked bullpen is a problem I wish we had every year.

 

If we ever get to the point where we have way too much pitching for our roster then you start making some trades.

[pogokat]

If every single one of the Brewers pitchers work out, it will be a miracle

 

also, they will just trade people...we've already seen that a mlb ready ss plus two high level pitchers can get Zach Greinke (twice so far), so why not look forward to having some trade ammo again

 

as for Sanchez, I pointed him out because there are never free agents in their twenties...and when there are, they are typically over estimated. I think Sanchez could be like Edwin jackson last year (well, not exactly...) and not get the kind of offers he's expecting. I'd happily give him 4 and 45-55 million

[JohnBriggs12]

Until I saw Rogers and Peralta perform, I'd have been on board with Sanchez but not now. Of course its no guarantee that every pitcher works out. It's likely one or two won't but now is the time for both Rogers and Peralta to be given the chance and Fiers and Estrada did nothing to not be in the picture at the start of next year. They'll have Narveson in reserve too. He can start the year on rehab in Nashville. They'll also have Thornburg and Burgos starting there and Nelson, Jungmann, and Bucci starting in Huntsville. It's not like there's no depth in the high minors now like there has been in the past.

 

Okay you'll say won't they need veteran leadership? Perhaps, but what's to stop them from a midseason acquisition? They clearly have the depth in the system now to go out and get someone and the payroll room to take on a contract for the short term.

 

Bottom line is I think they'll look for a guy who can start but who's willing to relieve to give them a little added depth. Now if a true number 1 or number 2 shows interest, that's a remote possibility true. But I wouldn't hold back guys for an Anibal Sanchez on a long term deal.

[Roderick]

 

Easy you go with the 5 best starters regardless of money. Why would you take out a better starter just because you have a fill in that makes less than him? And making a stacked bullpen is a problem I wish we had every year.

 

If we ever get to the point where we have way too much pitching for our roster then you start making some trades.

 

Who said I would take out the better starter based on money? I just said why acquire a pitcher that is signed for more than two years to begin with. I think it may be a faulty assumption that all of those young pitchers would pitch as well coming out of the pen as if they were starting. Yes, we should be able to trade excess pitching, but if that pitching ends up in the bullpen working the 6th innning, what kind of value do you think we will get? You don't have to worry about that if you keep flexibility.

[endaround]

Sanchez is an equal pitcher to Gallardo. Which means he's better than Estrada, Fiers, Peralta, et al. for 2013. And in two years it won't matter any way because Gallardo will be gone so there is your roster spot.

[monty57]

I just said why acquire a pitcher that is signed for more than two years to begin with.

 

Agreed. Four year contracts to pitchers bear a lot of risk. For example, what happens if the pitcher injures his shoulder in the first season, and now we have to pay him not to play (or to play at a much lower level) for 3.5 more years? Sometimes you need to take that risk, but with the young guys the Brewers have, if they think they need to add a veteran arm for 2013, they should look for one who will sign a short-term deal.

[Bnowell4evr]

What guys would you target on a short term deal? I look at the FA market and the majority of guys who would be willing to sign a contract like that wouldn't even improve our rotation. I think Brewer fans are overrating their young pitchers and I pray to god Melvin doesn't do the same thing. It could be a LONG 2013 if we stand pat or settle for a back of the rotation starter/reliever like so many seem to want.

 

I look at the 4 guys we want to pitch behind Gallardo and I don't believe any of them would finish with an ERA under 4 for an entire season. Everyone seems to forget that Rogers, Fiers and Peralta all had mid 4 ERA's in AAA Nashville but now there all top of the rotation guys in the pros. Then there's Estrada who pitched way OVER his head this year and if you think he's gonna maintain a 4.93 K/BB ratio going forward I got a bridge to sell you.

 

I guess I'm not blinded by a couple weeks of good baseball. I've learned my lessons with all the flash in pans we've had in the past.

[Patrick425]

What guys would you target on a short term deal? I look at the FA market and the majority of guys who would be willing to sign a contract like that wouldn't even improve our rotation. I think Brewer fans are overrating their young pitchers and I pray to god Melvin doesn't do the same thing. It could be a LONG 2013 if we stand pat or settle for a back of the rotation starter/reliever like so many seem to want.

 

I look at the 4 guys we want to pitch behind Gallardo and I don't believe any of them would finish with an ERA under 4 for an entire season. Everyone seems to forget that Rogers, Fiers and Peralta all had mid 4 ERA's in AAA Nashville but now there all top of the rotation guys in the pros. Then there's Estrada who pitched way OVER his head this year and if you think he's gonna maintain a 4.93 K/BB ratio going forward I got a bridge to sell you.

 

I guess I'm not blinded by a couple weeks of good baseball. I've learned my lessons with all the flash in pans we've had in the past.

 

This...Ditto...what he said...I could not agree more..and any other affirmation of this argument that I can't think of right now. Especially the part about Brewer fans overrating the young arms.

[pogokat]

i would look to dempster on a 1-2 year deal if possible---great with cubs, junk elsewhere...

[TheCrew07]

I wouldn't ever claim that all of the young pitchers are going to work out wonderfully, but the reality is that they do have to be given a chance to prove themselves either way. They can't sit perpetually in AAA because the team eventually runs out of option years for them. At some point the Brewers will need to be willing to take a possible production hit and give them an extended shot and I stress possible production hit because FA signings are just as risky from a value perspective.

 

I get that a large portion of posters would rather go with "proven" talent, but what exactly have the Brewers been able to buy in Free Agency? What difference maker have the Brewers signed in FA who was productive for the duration of his contract? If FA was such an easy fix, then every team that can spend money would win every year. For the most part FA is bad joke, it's players getting paid for what they have done in the past, rather than what they will do in the future. Since the contracts are garuanteed in baseball isn't extremely difficult to get out from under a bad contract, especially in regards to pitching. You might be able to unload a guy to a desperate team but you're still going to have to eat a significant portion of his contract to do so. That's not good value nor is it good business regardless of how often it happens around baseball.

 

There's always more than 1 way to get home and as such we don't need to sign a FA pitcher because it doesn't make sense to slot some averagish starting pitcher in front of more talented and younger players. The young players may fail, but our FA acquisitions have failed just as often, and for the first time in my lifetime we actually have some legitimate starting pitching depth in the organization. I'd much rather run out Peralta, Rogers, and Fiers for a season to see what they have than send any of them back to AAA (which isn't possible in Rogers' case). We'd still have a pretty decent AAA rotation behind the MLB guys with Thornburg and Burgos leading the way, we'd have legitimate options (yes I know "unproven") for the first time ever.

 

This situation is exciting to me and signing some mid tier retread doesn't solidify the rotation, however that player would further limit the ceiling of the rotation. If you load up the rotation with guys who are my opinion 3s best case as in Estrada, Narveson, random FA pitcher, and Fiers the Brewers will win regular season games but how would that rotation match up against the better teams in baseball in the post sesaon? With that many pitchers of the same talent level you're basically limiting yourself to being league average, or hoping to be league average. I'd much rather continually be pushing that kind talent towards the #5 spot in the rotation looking to slot higher ceiling arms in front those guys. The idea shouldn't be for a talent like Estrada to be the #3, it should be for him to a #5 or in the bullpen, that's when we'll have a strong rotation, when Estrada level talent doesn't fit anywhere but the pen. I'd settle for a rotation of 3 #2s and 2 3#s but I'm not looking for a rotation of 1 #2 and 4 #3/4/5 type pitchers depending on what you believe.

 

If we're ever going to get to a place where our rotation matches up well with the best rotations in the game then we simply have to quit looking at FA as kind of answer because the Brewers cannot afford to buy impact pitching in FA. Furthermore it's terrible roster construction to be be paying your #5 pitcher >=$8 million per season. The Brewers have enough other needs that to continually be trotting out some veteran pitcher making considerable money for the backend of the rotation makes no sense. Teams that have bigger margins can play that sort of game with their starters but Milwaukee isn't in that kind of position.

 

If the best talent available isn't an option, then FA really shouldn't be an option, and other options should be pursued.

[monty57]

My thought on the one-year deal would be for someone like Marcum who is talented when healthy, but has had some problems which may keep teams from offering a multi-year deal. If we could get someone like him on an incentive-laden one-year deal while he tries to rebuild his value for the next offseason, then there is little risk to the Brewers. If he fails to perform, there is little cost in jettisoning him. If he plays well, then he either earns his contract in helping the Brewers win games, or he would be easily tradeable to another team for a decent package in return.

 

With the current Brewers system, I prefer the low-risk, high-reward option. When we didn't have any prospects on the horizon and needed to fill multiple rotation spots, we needed to sign multi-year deals.

[torts]

what about Colby Lewis?

[trwi7]

I think he signed with the Rangers and is hurt anyways.

[JohnBriggs12]

The Brewers were 2-9 in Randy Wolf's last 11 starts. In 4 of those 9 losses, they scored 6 runs. They were reluctant to pull Wolf from the rotation despite the fact he carried an ERA over 5 virtually all season and as it turns out, they had young guys capable of replacing him.

 

If they were to sign a middling veteran FA to a multi year deal, they are stuck with him, at the expense of any number of promising young starters in their system. If the guy performs, fine. If he turns into Suppan or the 2012 version of Wolf, it's costly.

 

Other than the top level FA, which are out of their price range, if they feel they need a vet, the focus should be on a guy who'll take a short term deal, be able to start or relieve, and be a guy they can move to make room for a young guy.

[Bnowell4evr]

The Brewers were 2-9 in Randy Wolf's last 11 starts. In 4 of those 9 losses, they scored 6 runs. They were reluctant to pull Wolf from the rotation despite the fact he carried an ERA over 5 virtually all season and as it turns out, they had young guys capable of replacing him.

 

If they were to sign a middling veteran FA to a multi year deal, they are stuck with him, at the expense of any number of promising young starters in their system. If the guy performs, fine. If he turns into Suppan or the 2012 version of Wolf, it's costly.

 

Other than the top level FA, which are out of their price range, if they feel they need a vet, the focus should be on a guy who'll take a short term deal, be able to start or relieve, and be a guy they can move to make room for a young guy.

 

I fail to see how signing a #5 starter / long reliever would improve our team when we already have a ton of them on our roster. I honestly think thats the worst thing the Brewers could do this offseason with the type of offense we have returning. If I'm Ryan Braun and that's all that Melvin brought in I would demand a trade. I'd be thinking why play your heart out for a team that won't support you the same way.