2013 FA arms

[FVBrewerFan]

Honestly, I don't want to sign any FA SP's for next year.

 

I want to see what Gallardo/Fiers/Estrada/Thornburg/Peralta/Rogers/Narveson can do. Best 5 of the 7 make the opening day rotation out of spring with one of the other 2 being the long reliever and the other guy going back down to Nashville.

 

After seeing what those guys do next year, then pay for a quality SP for the 2014 season. Maybe a couple of them if need be. I think paying for a SP next year would be a waste.

 

Replace Narveson with Burgos, and I would agree 100%.

[slappzilla]

I'd be fine with doing that, or even putting Burgos into the mix as an 8th option.

 

I know Doug will buy a SP FA because it's his and Mark's MO to spend what they can to compete the most, but I'd rather roll that $$$ that would go towards a FA SP next year into the 2014 budget and really kick some tail.

[adambr2]

You know Mark A's philosophy is generally to try to field a contender every year.

 

Plus, next year may be Hart's last with the Brewers, and I don't think the Brewers are hanging onto A-Ram with the intention of not trying to contend at some point before he leaves.

 

If Gomez keeps doing what he is, and Rickie avoids the first half slump next year, the 2013 lineup looks very dangerous. Aoki/Lucroy/Braun/Ramirez/Hart/Weeks/Gomez/Segura. I'd be very surprised if they don't seek a FA SP or two in free agency, especially having the available money for it.

 

Not that I would mind seeing what the younger guys can do, but I would be surprised if they do. I think Gallardo, Fiers, and Estrada are probably good for the rotation next year, and Thornburg/Peralta/Rogers will all battle it out IN spring training if those spots aren't spoken for already. Although I don't think that relegating Estrada back to the bullpen next year would be the worst thing in the world.

[slappzilla]

If Gomez keeps doing what he is, and Rickie avoids the first half slump next year, the 2013 lineup looks very dangerous. Aoki/Lucroy/Braun/Ramirez/Hart/Weeks/Gomez/Segura. I'd be very surprised if they don't seek a FA SP or two in free agency, especially having the available money for it.

In 2010 the Brewers had a very dangerous lineup.

 

Their rotation and bullpen, not so much.

 

2013 could wind up a lot like 2010. You can assume the 2013 rotation will be better, but you don't know it will be better than Gallardo/Wolf/Narveson/Bush/Capuano/Parra/Suppan (I think Davis was in that mix too). I'd say the young arms that will be in the 2013 rotation have far more upside than the 2010 rotation did, but they're still unknown. Gallardo and Fiers are really the only knowns.

[adambr2]

If Gomez keeps doing what he is, and Rickie avoids the first half slump next year, the 2013 lineup looks very dangerous. Aoki/Lucroy/Braun/Ramirez/Hart/Weeks/Gomez/Segura. I'd be very surprised if they don't seek a FA SP or two in free agency, especially having the available money for it.

In 2010 the Brewers had a very dangerous lineup.

 

Their rotation and bullpen, not so much.

 

2013 could wind up a lot like 2010. You can assume the 2013 rotation will be better, but you don't know it will be better than Gallardo/Wolf/Narveson/Bush/Capuano/Parra/Suppan (I think Davis was in that mix too). I'd say the young arms that will be in the 2013 rotation have far more upside than the 2010 rotation did, but they're still unknown. Gallardo and Fiers are really the only knowns.

 

Well alluding to my earlier post, I would assume that a rotation of Gallardo/Kuroda/Edwin Jackson/Fiers/Thornburg would be a LOT better than Gallardo/Wolf/Narveson/Bush/Capuano/Parra/Suppan.

[slappzilla]

Of course.

 

I was just going with the assumption that Melvin goes with the young arms vs. signing FA's like Kuroda and EJax.

[adambr2]

Of course.

 

I was just going with the assumption that Melvin goes with the young arms vs. signing FA's like Kuroda and EJax.

 

Possibly. But I'm willing to bet that with only about $55-$60M of the payroll spoken for, and SS now taken care of, he's going to look at a FA starter.

 

I think he's going to wait and see what the Greinke market looks like, and if it's not out of hand, there may be an offer made to Greinke. If the market ends up significantly over what we last offered him, Melvin will duck out of that and start looking at the next tier of FA's. Just my opinion.

[monty57]

I'd bet Melvin will get one FA starter, but would highly doubt he'll get two. I hope he shoots for a one-year deal to a guy trying to rebuild his value (aka Marcum or someone like him). The rotation could then be Gallardo, Marcum, Fiers, Estrada and one of the rookies, probably between Peralta, Rogers and Thornburg. At the mid-way point next year, if we're out of it, Marcum/other vet FA can get dealt for prospects and we bring someone up from the minors. If we're in the playoff hunt, we should still have money to fill holes (unless Melvin needlessly maxes us out pre-season).

 

Fiers and Estrada have both earned a spot and keeping them both starting is in the best long-term interest for the Brewers. If the best case scenario happens and we have a surplus of young, MLB ready starting pitchers in a couple of years, Estrada could be a good trade chip, as he would have a few years as a starter under his belt, and still have some inexpensive team control. Moving him to the 'pen would only decrease his value, and the person starting in front of him would be hard-pressed to match the numbers Estrada has posted as a starter. Let him prove he's not worthy of a starting spot before taking it away from him.

 

Signing one or two free agents to multi-year deals this off-season would really do little but block some prospects from ever getting their chance to start over the next few years.

 

Also, I don't like the thought of putting "the losers" of Thornburg, Burgos, Rogers into the MLB bullpen. They need to stay stretched out as starters in the minors, so when their time comes (whether it's 2013, 2014 or 2015), they will be able to hit the ground running and throw enough innings to get them through a MLB season. The only exception would be if one is out of options. For example, if Rogers needs to be on the 25-man roster next year, but Peralta is obviously a better option for the rotation, then I'd have no qualms about moving Rogers to the 'pen. Hopefully, he'd be groomed for a setup/closer role, and wouldn't be doomed to the dreaded "long reliever" slot where he gets as much opportunity as Livan Hernandez is seeing this season.

[slappzilla]

I think he will spend the remaining $20M or so on a SP and the bullpen. I don't want him to buy another SP but you know him and doug will. Id rather roll that money into 2014 and find out what the kids got.

 

edit:

 

 

 

I'd bet Melvin will get one FA starter, but would highly doubt he'll get two. I hope he shoots for a one-year deal to a guy trying to rebuild his value (aka Marcum or someone like him). The rotation could then be Gallardo, Marcum, Fiers, Estrada and one of the rookies, probably between Peralta, Rogers and Thornburg. At the mid-way point next year, if we're out of it, Marcum/other vet FA can get dealt for prospects and we bring someone up from the minors. If we're in the playoff hunt, we should still have money to fill holes (unless Melvin needlessly maxes us out pre-season).

I'm down with that, only because I think Melvin will sign a FA arm no matter what.

[TheCrew07]

I'm not opposed to Marcum on a one year deal but why has Estrada earned a rotation slot? Everyone coming up behind him has more talent and he's just not the type of player that should ever stand in the way of any legitimate prospect. He's good enough when we don't have anyone better, but he's easily replaceable when we do. He may perform better than any of our young pitchers in year 1 but once those guys get to years 2 and 3 there shouldn't be much of a comparison. Wouldn't it make more sense to use him as a fall back option and start the youngsters in the rotation to see if they can hack it?

 

I'm okay with Thornburg starting the year in AAA but Rogers will be out of options so if he fails as a starter he'll immediately go to the pen. After a putrid couple of months Peralta has put together a couple of nice months in a row as well, I wouldn't be opposed to Wily starting 2013 in the rotation. That still leaves us with Burgos, Stinson, Thornburg, Hellweg, and Pena in AAA. In AA we'd have Bucci (hopefully), Jungmann, Bradley, and Gagnon, that's 2 pretty darn nice rotations that are very close to Milwaukee. Wily has been pitching for 6 years in the minors (he missed his 18 year old season after TJ surgery), it's not like he's being rushed at all and Rogers has to be on the MLB roster next season or he walks.

 

I'd much rather see Gallardo, Marcum, Peralta, Rogers, and Fiers than Gallardo, Marcum, Estrada, Fiers, Rogers. If one of them has to shift to the pen then Estrada comes back to the rotation or we call up the next guy from AAA. Estrada's great insurance against more than 1 of those prospects failing but again, It will drive me nuts if he's handed a rotation slot just because he's "proven". It certainly wouldn't be the first time this current management team has blocked a legitimate talent with replaceable talent so I can see Estrada getting a slot, but I don't think that's the best of use all of the assets we'll have on hand for 2013.

 

I really liked what the Rays did with Sonnanstine who was a similar pitcher to Estrada, he was good enough until they had better talent. After 2008 they shifted him to the pen where his stuff had a chance to be better and he was still insurance against failure after Niemann and Price joined the rotation.

[PrinceEatMeat]

I think Estrada would just go back to the bullpen if the younger guys come out looking good in September and Spring Training next year. He's really just there as insurance in case he's needed in the rotation. I still prefer him in the bullpen. I would like to see him there next year a few of our young guys can step up and take rotation spots. Gallardo and Fiers are locks at this point, and they'll likely sign someone to take the 2 spot behind Gallardo. That'll leave 2 spots between Thornburg, Rogers, Peralta, and Estrada. Either way, I think all 4 could end up being on the Opening Day roster. Unless it's Thornburg or Peralta who don't win a rotation spot. They may be sent to AAA in that case. I think Rogers would be kept in the pen, as would Estrada.

[torts]

you think Bradley should be brought up to AA next year? you dont think he needs another year in A+?

[TheCrew07]

you think Bradley should be brought up to AA next year? you dont think he needs another year in A+?

 

I don't think my opinion on it matters much, the Brewers are going to do what they do. I'd say it's 50/50 he repeats given their history with their top pitching prospects. They've usually moved up 1 level a year regardless of performance except with Arnett, and Bradley wasn't quite there yet. I forgot Nelson who is a likely candidate to start next season in AA.

 

As I'm thinking more about this maybe it's 60/40 he repeats, I think it depends entirely on his spring. If it were up to me he would have started in A ball to begin with, so I'd definitely force him to repeat the level and have some success.

[adambr2]

Just for kicks, for those that try to calculate equal value, what would it take to get Jordan Zimmerman from Washington during the offseason? I have no idea of their roster/system needs or surpluses.

 

If you had to pin me down for equal value, I would say it would take something like Lucroy + Segura + Peralta + Gennett.

 

Way more than we would be willing to give up, and possibly not even enough for the Nats, so either way, would never happen. Elite young pitchers with three more years of club control generally don't get traded for that reason.

[slappzilla]

I agree that Rogers and Peralta should be given a shot before Thornburg. Let Thornburg sit in AAA and if Rogers or Peralta implode, he can replace them. He's young and can benefit a lot by waiting where as Peralta and Rogers have to poo or get off the pot.

[jmeks23]

Peralta's younger than Thornburg so I don't think that applies. As far as Rogers goes, I think we'll find out whether he's on the team or not next year depending on the rest of this year. He's going to be starting again tonight against a terrible Astros team so we'll see.

 

I personally think Thornburg and Peralta should be give the last two rotation spots (provided they out perform the competition of course) next year. Get a FA and use Fiers as the 2 or 3. If Rogers performs outstanding the rest of this year and next ST maybe my opinion changes. I just don't see it though.

[monty57]

I'm not opposed to Marcum on a one year deal but why has Estrada earned a rotation slot? Everyone coming up behind him has more talent and he's just not the type of player that should ever stand in the way of any legitimate prospect. He's good enough when we don't have anyone better, but he's easily replaceable when we do. He may perform better than any of our young pitchers in year 1 but once those guys get to years 2 and 3 there shouldn't be much of a comparison. Wouldn't it make more sense to use him as a fall back option and start the youngsters in the rotation to see if they can hack it?

 

TC, you missed the most important part of my post: "Estrada could be a good trade chip, as he would have a few years as a starter under his belt, and still have some inexpensive team control. Moving him to the 'pen would only decrease his value"

 

To me, it's about value. Estrada has performed pretty well in his limited exposure as a starter

 

2011: 7 starts, 3.70 ERA, 41.1 IP, 35 H, 17 ER, 5 HR, 10 BB, 33K, .235 BAA, 1.09 WHIP

2012: 13 starts, 4.40 ERA, 71.2 IP, 71 H, 35 ER, 15 HR, 12 BB, 73K, .259 BAA, 1.16 WHIP

 

He'll be first year arby eligible next season, so he's still got three years of control left. Barring unforeseen circumstances, I'd let him start next year in the rotation. If he continues to pitch like a decent #3 starter, they could trade him at the mid-point next season or in the offseason and probably get some decent prospects in return... for Marco Estrada, a guy I wouldn't have given anything for prior to his showing he has value as a starter. Moving him to the bullpen to allow another rookie to "get his feet wet" in 2013 will substantially decrease Estrada's value.

 

It's not about him being "proven," it's about maximizing his value. I don't see him as a long-term answer for the Brewers because, as you said, the Brewers have plenty of guys coming up through the minors who are more talented than Estrada. Other teams who don't have that luxury will give us other talented youngsters for the right to have Estrada pitch for them.

 

If Estrada starts the season in the rotation and chokes, move him to the pen and bring up the talented rookie. You've lost nothing. Little risk, lot of reward by letting him start.

[TheCrew07]

My bad monty I did miss that part of your post.

[JohnBriggs12]

Jake Peavy's had a nice comeback year (a better year than Greinke), but it's questionable whether the White Sox will pick up his $22 million option. His injury risks should mean a discount in years and money and he's not all that much older than Greinke.

 

Just sayin.

[endaround]

He's significantly older than Greinke.

[Funketown]

He's significantly older than Greinke.

 

He's only two years older.

 

I doubt the Sox will pick up the $22 million option, so he might be somebody to keep tabs on. It's hard to gauge how the market for Peavy will develop due to the fact that he only threw ~100 innings each season from 2009-2011, but if the price is right maybe Melvin makes a play here.

[nate82]

Edwin Jackson > Jake Peavy

[endaround]

Its actually three years, next year is Peavy's age 32 season and Greinke's age 29 seasons. And they are basically three prime years.

[slappzilla]

Peavy is like Sheets, except even more injury prone.

[JohnBriggs12]

Its actually three years, next year is Peavy's age 32 season and Greinke's age 29 seasons. And they are basically three prime years.

 

Peavy is 2 years, 5 months older than Greinke. That's closer to 2 years than it is 3. Peavy doesn't turn 32 until the end of May next season. It's more his 31/32 season.

 

"Peavy is like Sheets but only more injury prone."

 

Based on what? Peavy's never had under 100 innings in any season. Sheets is 3 years older than Peavy (2 years, 10 months to be exact) and missed the entire 2009 and 2011 seasons. Peavy hasn't missed a start in 2012 and is on pace to log over 200 innings. The last time Sheets logged 200 innings, John Kerry was running for president.