2013 FA arms

[monty57]

That's an interesting scenario, Mass Haas. It also means that good-but-not-great players could be more likely to be signed by teams that have already picked up a better free agent. In your scenario, Cleveland could just sign Lohse to start for them, and they'd only give up a 3rd round pick for him as opposed to the 1st rounder most other teams would lose.

 

This may benefit big-money teams who are more likely to sign multiple big-money free agents in the same offseason.

 

Not necessarily because you also lose how much you can spend in the draft also. The Indians will actually have a lower amount that they can spend on the draft than the Brewers will with the loss of that 2nd round pick.

 

The Yankees will have a higher pool of funds to spend also.

 

I have seen a few articles talking about the downside of less money in the signing pool. But, unless you want to overpay the slot for a player that has college options to make sure you get him, I don't see the big deal. Yes, you have less money to spend on your draft picks, but you also have one less higher level draft pick to actually sign. Am I missing something else?

 

That's pretty much the way I look at it, but I'm not an expert on the draft. If you don't have a 2nd or 3rd round pick, you don't have to sign them. You can still not sign your 6th round guy and use "his money" to overpay the 1st rounder if you feel the need.

[monty57]

MLBTradeRumors.com has a list of RH relievers available. Says there isn't much demand out there. It still lists the Brewers as having showed interest in Farnsworth, Rauch and Mark Lowe. It also highlights Soriano, Valverde, Brain Wilson, K-Rod, Lyon, Capps and Durbin.

 

If the Brewers feel that they need to add a RH reliever, it looks like they could add one at a decent price.

[DR28]

Sounds like the Brewers signed Kelvim Escobar to a Major League deal... Doug found his Veteran for the Rotation?

 

http://clnsradio.com/2013/01/10/source-brewers-sign-rhp-kelvim-escobar/

 

 

EDIT: Nevermind the above... Kelvim was signed to a Minor League deal with invite to camp.

[RWeeksFan23]

I don't understand the lack of interest by anyone in Brian Wilson. I know he's coming off Tommy John surgery or whatever, but he's still one of the better closers in the game isn't he?

[jerichoholicninja]

There are quite a few decent relievers out there. I'm not sure why those guys haven't been signed yet.

[monty57]

I don't understand the lack of interest by anyone in Brian Wilson. I know he's coming off Tommy John surgery or whatever, but he's still one of the better closers in the game isn't he?

 

The MLBtraderumors write-up did say that Wilson is one of the few on the list who has drawn quite a bit of interest, so I'd expect he'll get a decent payday. Soriano (Boras agent) would cost a draft pick, so that's limiting interest in him. The rest just don't seem to be drawing interest. Sounds like a lot of GMs aren't willing to put a lot of money into a RH reliever, so they're waiting for the price tags to come down as Spring Training approaches.

[logan82]

Did Soriano deserve to be offered the QO or was it a case of New York throwing their money around?

[TooLiveBrew]

Did Soriano deserve to be offered the QO or was it a case of New York throwing their money around?

Outside of 2011, Soriano has been one of the best RPs in the game since '06. Absolutely deserved QO in my opinion, and I believe NYY would've been happy to have him accept it.

[logan82]

His stats looked good but I was wondering because I am afraid the Yankees and other big teams will start throwing around money at less than elite guys to receive draft pick compensation if they leave. I hope the new CBA doesn't play out that way.

[brewcrewdue80]

His stats looked good but I was wondering because I am afraid the Yankees and other big teams will start throwing around money at less than elite guys to receive draft pick compensation if they leave. I hope the new CBA doesn't play out that way.

 

 

Yes, this is my biggest complaint. A "Riches" team like NY can QO any player they wish and take on the payroll if accepted or lose the player, gain an added draft pick. Meaning NY's Riches come either to their ML team or falls in to their Minor League system.

[jerichoholicninja]

His stats looked good but I was wondering because I am afraid the Yankees and other big teams will start throwing around money at less than elite guys to receive draft pick compensation if they leave. I hope the new CBA doesn't play out that way.

 

 

Yes, this is my biggest complaint. A "Riches" team like NY can QO any player they wish and take on the payroll if accepted or lose the player, gain an added draft pick. Meaning NY's Riches come either to their ML team or falls in to their Minor League system.

 

That certainly is possible but Kyle Lohse is a great example of why it won't happen too often. Lohse is a terrible pitcher who put together a good season in a contract year. If he accepted the Cardinals QO he would be grossly overpaid but for only one year. He didn't and now no one wants him. I would not be surprised if he doesn't sign until after the season starts. As much as we want to believe the rich teams have unlimited budgets, they don't, and having a Kyle Lohse-type player making QO money will not be good for their franchise.

[sheetskout]

Did Soriano deserve to be offered the QO or was it a case of New York throwing their money around?

Outside of 2011, Soriano has been one of the best RPs in the game since '06. Absolutely deserved QO in my opinion, and I believe NYY would've been happy to have him accept it.

 

Agreed. I would put Rafael Soriano in the top five relievers in baseball right now; closer or not.

[brewcrewdue80]

But do you pay a Relief pitcher top 70 pay in all of baseball to close? That's where the QO would put him. If he's a closer with over 3out closing ability I could justify it but if strictly 3outs or less, again you're basically paying him saying he's the 2nd or 3rd best player in value on your team. Which would be like ranking your team Braun,Gallardo,Soriano. Actually on Brewers he'd be Ramirez,Soriano in pay regards this year. I just think it's a huge overpay where it sets up nightmares in contract negotiating. I'd have to rank my best closer in the 7-10th range in pay or lower on my team, or look elsewhere. He's going to pitch 60-70 innings and yeah under high pressure situations, just can't take on that kind of payroll imo for a closer. You have to be winning games to get to him which requires SP or Hitting and I'd rather put half of what Soriano is looking for towards a solid SP or Hitter.

[brewcrewdue80]

Wow, so Karstens re-signed with Pitt for 1.5mil less (2.5 vs. 4mil)than what he was projected for arby.

 

Like I said, the guy throws some gem games eats innings in them only can't stay healthy year-long. But for him to only get what we paid our new relievers? Man, I hate that he's pitching vs. us rather he us vs. them.

 

To quote Pitt fans, "Our best offseason move. He's better than Liriano." Yeah my thoughts exactly when healthy.

[JohnBriggs12]

Wow, so Karstens re-signed with Pitt for 1.5mil less (2.5 vs. 4mil)than what he was projected for arby.

 

Like I said, the guy throws some gem games eats innings in them only can't stay healthy year-long. But for him to only get what we paid our new relievers? Man, I hate that he's pitching vs. us rather he us vs. them.

 

To quote Pitt fans, "Our best offseason move. He's better than Liriano." Yeah my thoughts exactly when healthy.

 

The Brewers situation is unique. They have multiple guys vying for rotation spots who all make under a million and either performed well in less than a full season in 2012 or in the case of Narveson, was solid for two seasons before getting injured and by all reports is on pace to return. If you bring in a guy like Karstens who I agree is a major bargain, you take a spot away from someone else. If enough of the group that showed well last year are ready now to become a full time major league starters, now is the time to find out. If they pan out, it puts you in great position for the next few years. It's a bit of a gamble but one Melvin seems ready to take.

[CheezWizHed]

Yes, this is my biggest complaint. A "Riches" team like NY can QO any player they wish and take on the payroll if accepted or lose the player, gain an added draft pick.

 

But that is no different now than it was in the old system. Teams with deeper pockets could afford to offer arby to more questionable FAs. They should just use a system like the NFL so it has nothing to do with a QO, but simply a compensation system for teams that lose players.

[sheetskout]

Yes, this is my biggest complaint. A "Riches" team like NY can QO any player they wish and take on the payroll if accepted or lose the player, gain an added draft pick.

 

But that is no different now than it was in the old system. Teams with deeper pockets could afford to offer arby to more questionable FAs. They should just use a system like the NFL so it has nothing to do with a QO, but simply a compensation system for teams that lose players.

 

 

It's one thing to be able to offer Arbitration to a player and not have to worry about him accepting it or not. It's a totally different thing to offer a 13.5million dollar QO and have the player accept it.

 

As the pool of draft-compensation-eligible free-agents slimmed down, so did the chances of the small-market team. I'm really not sure how they got this through negotiations. The Brewers went from having five compensation-eligible free-agents after 2011 down to one (Fielder).

[brewerfan82]

I think MLB is trying too hard to A.) make small market teams try to resign their FA (by only making them eligible for compensation by making a risky QO) and B.) punish teams for signing free agents (by losing picks for signing them).

 

Couldn't this all be simpler? If a team signs a player for more than a yearly/total contract threshhold, then the team that lost the player gets a compensation pick at the end of the 1st round. Don't punish the team that does sign the player (which ultimately punishes the FA as well by diminishing their value), don't force teams without the financial resources to risk taking on a contract larger than they can feasibly accept, and don't base the compensation (ie. what pick in the 1st/2nd round the team gets) "randomly" on what team happens to sign their FA.

[Roderick]

I think MLB is trying too hard to A.) make small market teams try to resign their FA (by only making them eligible for compensation by making a risky QO) and B.) punish teams for signing free agents (by losing picks for signing them).

 

Couldn't this all be simpler? If a team signs a player for more than a yearly/total contract threshhold, then the team that lost the player gets a compensation pick at the end of the 1st round. Don't punish the team that does sign the player (which ultimately punishes the FA as well by diminishing their value), don't force teams without the financial resources to risk taking on a contract larger than they can feasibly accept, and don't base the compensation (ie. what pick in the 1st/2nd round the team gets) "randomly" on what team happens to sign their FA.

 

I would agree to the part about taking the randomness out of it. I would use the QO threshold for the following.

 

Teams that lose a free agent get a pick at the end of the 1st round.

 

And my thought on the signing team is this. They lose their 2nd round pick if they sign one FA (that isn't too painful). The second FA they sign they lose their 1st pick. So if a team needs to fill a hole they can, but if they want to "corner the market" they are going to lose their first pick at least (doesn't matter what their record was the year before). And if it actually happens that they sign a 3rd guy, they will lose their 1st round pick the next year.

[CheezWizHed]

It's one thing to be able to offer Arbitration to a player and not have to worry about him accepting it or not. It's a totally different thing to offer a 13.5million dollar QO and have the player accept it.

 

Its not totally different at all. The difference is that the QO is no longer variable (determined by arby), its a fixed amount.

 

In the past, we debated whether to give Player X arbitration. For that person Arby may be $5M or $10M or $20M. Now, that QO is $13.5M for everyone. For every team, that means less QOs will be given out. But its still easier for a deep pocket team to offer it to a player that would be considered marginal for that money.

 

In the past, we have debated giving Felipe Lopez arby (for maybe $5M?) but didn't. But no team is going to give him a QO of $13.5M. Obviously, someone like Fielder (last year) would be given a QO by any and every team.

 

Now, lets take Carlos Gomez. Lots of debate around BF.net whether he is worth a QO of $13.5M. So its questionable by the Brewers to do that or not. But if he was with the Yanks or Dodgers and they needed a CF, that decision might be easier for them.

 

It doesn't change the old system by much, it just narrows the number of players that might be in it by raising the $$ bar. But because it forces teams to give an offer, the system still favors the deep pocket teams because they have more money to play with.

 

The NFL system of FA compensation is better because it compensates those teams that lose players without signing equivalent players. Its about losing FAs, not about if you can afford to offer a certain contract or not.

[sheetskout]

Now, lets take Carlos Gomez. Lots of debate around BF.net whether he is worth a QO of $13.5M. So its questionable by the Brewers to do that or not. But if he was with the Yanks or Dodgers and they needed a CF, that decision might be easier for them.

 

Carlos Gomez's estimated arbitration was around 4.7 million dollars. If there's debate on whether the Brewers would have considered a QO for him, I don't know what to tell you; because there's NO way the Brewers offer Gomez that much. I'm not quite sure what to say about that.

 

The system still favors deeper pockets, in that we agree. But now the Brewers have fewer compensation chances year-to-year. And that certainly doesn't favor them. Ask the Rays how they've been competitive over the past five years. What are they going to do now that only one player qualifies for significant draft compensation?

[nate82]

Now, lets take Carlos Gomez. Lots of debate around BF.net whether he is worth a QO of $13.5M. So its questionable by the Brewers to do that or not. But if he was with the Yanks or Dodgers and they needed a CF, that decision might be easier for them.

 

Carlos Gomez's estimated arbitration was around 4.7 million dollars. If there's debate on whether the Brewers would have considered a QO for him, I don't know what to tell you; because there's NO way the Brewers offer Gomez that much. I'm not quite sure what to say about that.

 

The system still favors deeper pockets, in that we agree. But now the Brewers have fewer compensation chances year-to-year. And that certainly doesn't favor them. Ask the Rays how they've been competitive over the past five years. What are they going to do now that only one player qualifies for significant draft compensation?

 

The Brewers will definitely give Gomez a QO next off season. I expect Gomez to get a contract very similar to what Upton got and probably one or two more years added onto that.

[Raw Biz]

The Brewers will definitely give Gomez a QO next off season. I expect Gomez to get a contract very similar to what Upton got and probably one or two more years added onto that.

 

I don't think anyone can say definitely. Even if he repeats what he did last year, is that really worth it for the Brewers to risk paying $14 million for that? Some might say he would be worth it on paper (according to WAR or whatever) but realistically, he's not the kind of player you want to pay that much for. Sure he's a Boras client but after seeing guys stuck on the market this year (because teams don't want to give up a 1st rounder), I could see him accepting a QO and not wanting to risk it.

[CheezWizHed]

I don't know what to tell you; because there's NO way the Brewers offer Gomez that much.

 

The Brewers will definitely give Gomez a QO next off season.

 

I don't think anyone can say definitely. Even if he repeats what he did last year, is that really worth it for the Brewers to risk paying $14 million for that?

 

Well, I guess I made my point about Gomez being questionable for the QO... One "absolutely", one "no way" and one "its risky".

 

But now the Brewers have fewer compensation chances year-to-year.

Yes, agreed. But so does everyone. Everyone is going to have fewer compensation choices because there are fewer players getting a QO overall. But deep pockets has always allowed a team to give a QO or arby to players that might be "questionable" to other teams.

 

Its still not drastically different than it was, there are simply fewer compensation picks overall.

[umphrey]

There are actually still quite a few relievers on the market. I think we are probably done there, with 2 bullpen spots up for grabs that will probably go to Kintzler and Fautino or someone, but the market is kind of saturated. Some of these guys are going to sign for dirt cheap, why not us?

 

Jose Valverde

Brian Wilson

Francisco Rodriguez

Matt Capps

Jon Rauch

Francisco Cordero